The H2H between Nadal and Fed

Gary Duane

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
2004 - 2007:

Off clay, 5/2 to Fed.
(On clay, 6/1 to Nadal)

They played as many times on clay as on HCs and grass.

I'm interested in the rivalry off clay. Nadal leads by a huge margin on clay against both Novak and Fed, and he is responsible for denying FIVE grand slams to these guys, three times to Fed, two times to Novak. It should be obvious to anyone with a working brain that Nadal clearly leads any argument about GOAT player on clay.

But I'm interested in the competition off clay.

2008:

Only one meeting off clay the entire year, at Wimbledon

5/3 in favor of Fed.

2009:

One meeting at the AO

5/4, Fed still leads.

2010

Fed wins the WTF:

6/4 to Fed.

2011

Fed wins the WTF again, Nadal wins Miami

7/5 to Fed.

2012:

Fed wins Indian Wells, Nadal wins the AO.

8/6 to Fed.

2013:

Nadal wins all three meetings off clay.

8/9 to Nadal

2014:

Nadal wins at the AO.

8/10 to Nadal

2015:

Fed wins Basel

9/10 to Nadal

Off clay Fed was always ahead until 2013, having a pretty clear advantage against a 5 year younger player until the end of 2007, and Nadal has edged ahead as is usual for a younger player as the older player extends his career.

Overall I find these guys to be exceptionally close off clay, and that could be why we so much enjoy their matches.

(On clay it will most likely remain a beat-down, and unlike many I expect that to continue against Novak if Nadal gets his mojo back.)

If I have screwed up my figure, please correct me.

Thoughts?
 
H2H is 2 surfaces/conditions all

Federer - Grass, Indoor hard

Nadal - Clay, Outdoor hard

It's not Federer 's fault that they have played a majority of their matches on Nadal's 2 best surfaces. Nb: Most outdoor hard these days is slow outdoor hard.

If someone says conditions are irrelevant - can they answer this question. McEnroe/Borg are on 7 all. If all of the matches had been on clay, do you think it would still be 7 all?
 
Fed is Nadal's pigeon, always have, always will. Why don't you take out grass (if you GENUINELY want to be fair)?
 
Here are my thoughts. Copied and pasted from the match thread because I'm too lazy to do otherwise.

It's like I've always said about Federer-Nadal. Federer has 2 "bad" losses to Nadal in his whole career. Those being Wimbledon 2008 and AO 2009 (and now that we really know how deathly slow plexicushion is, this one is not as bad as Wimby '08, but I digress). Almost every other match in the rivalry is dependent on surface or "Federer 2013 version." And for every win Nadal has in Dubai or Cincinnati, Federer has one in Madrid (clay) or Hamburg.

We know that Federer is better on grass and that the H2H doesn't show it nearly as much as it should because the grass season is almost nonexistent plus Nadal has absolutely sucked at Wimbledon the last 4 years. We know he's better indoors, and thankfully they've played 6 matches in this condition/surface. And we know Nadal is better on clay, and coincidentally they've played a lot more than 6 matches on that surface. It's not rocket science.
 
timnz said:
H2H is 2 surfaces/conditions all

Federer - Grass, Indoor hard

Nadal - Clay, Outdoor hard

It's not Federer 's fault that they have played a majority of their matches on Nadal's 2 best surfaces. Nb: Most outdoor hard these days is slow outdoor hard.

If someone says conditions are irrelevant - can they answer this question. McEnroe/Borg are on 7 all. If all of the matches had been on clay, do you think it would still be 7 all?
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Not fair, because 15 matches were on clay, 19 matches off clay.

Most of the off clay matches are on surfaces that are by no means Nadal's strength. Please remember he only has 5 slams off clay.

When considering ALL of the H2H it is only fair to give the nod to Nadal.
 
The overall h2h will always still favour Nadal. Its hard for Fed to change it from now.To be realistic,i think a 34 year old Federer would still clearly be the underdog if he has to play against Nadal in the upcoming AO or RG. But on grass Nadal has never been good enough to even face Fed. So the only hope for Fed to beat Nadal in slam is US Open, but that still depends alot on the draw and how these two would perform, which only time can tell.
 
H2H is important when it shows WHY a player is ranked better or where the advantage is by surface.

Off clay Fed had only one really bad year off clay against Nadal - 2013. Fed had a bad year against all top players that year, which is obvious.

Other than that Fed lost his #1 ranking to Nadal in 2008, I believe, when Nadal had his most important off-clay win against Fed.

Besides those two years Nadal and Fed have been reasonably competitive off clay. 19 matches are certainly enough to point out that Nadal, when he was healthy enough to challenge, has been a difficult opponent for Fed, and Fed a difficult opponent for him.
 
dadadas said:
The overall h2h will always still favour Nadal. Its hard for Fed to change it from now.To be realistic,i think a 34 year old Federer would still clearly be the underdog if he has to play against Nadal in the upcoming AO or RG. But on grass Nadal has never been good enough to even face Fed. So the only hope for Fed to beat Nadal in slam is US Open, but that still depends alot on the draw and how these two would perform, which only time can tell.
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To be honest I look at Nadal's victory over Fed at the 2008 Wimbledon as a once in a career milestone, and one that could only be equalled by Fed having vanquished Nadal at the FO. ;)

But I would only make Fed the absolute underdog to Nadal at the AO because of his age. Not so much the surface, but Bo5 format. I would, however, agree that his chances are better at the USO.
 
Davydenko has a better h2h against Nadal (6 - 5). Of course, its really unfortunate for Fed to have been so good at clay but not good enough to beat Nadal and Nadal being so bad at grass that he could never meet Fed there again.
 
You have to make a distinction between indoor and outdoor hard courts. It is not as simple as off clay and on clay.
 
dadadas said:
Davydenko has a better h2h against Nadal (6 - 5). Of course, its really unfortunate for Fed to have been so good at clay but not good enough to beat Nadal and Nadal being so bad at grass that he could never meet Federer there again.
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I'd say Nadal was pretty good on grass until injuries got in his way. When you get to the finals three years in a row against one of the greatest grass players ever, just winning one final is pretty amazing.

What if Fed had one 1/3 finals against Nadal at FO? ;)
 
zep said:
You have to make a distinction between indoor and outdoor hard courts. It is not as simple as off clay and on clay.
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Sure, but then you have fast HCs, slower HCs, indoor HCs, then arguments start about which courts are faster and slower.

I personally like indoor tennis the best because it is more precise. Obviously that favors Fed, who depends on precision more than ever to win fast...
 
Gary Duane said:
Sure, but then you have fast HCs, slower HCs, indoor HCs, then arguments start about which courts are faster and slower.

I personally like indoor tennis the best because it is more precise. Obviously that favors Fed, who depends on precision more than ever to win fast...
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It is not about your preference. Nadal is a completely different player on outdoor and indoor hard courts. Their H2H also clearly indicates that. He is 9-2 on outdoor HC and 1-5 on indoor hard courts.
 
H2H matters when everything else is virtually a tie..

Nadal has a long way to go b4 any sort of tie.. a long way between the age 29 to 34..
 
zep said:
It is not about your preference. Nadal is a completely different player on outdoor and indoor hard courts. Their H2H also clearly indicates that. He is 9-2 on outdoor HC and 1-5 on indoor hard courts.
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No argument. But then you are looking at 6 matches on indoor courts and 11 on outdoor HCs. That's 17. There three on grass, so that's 20 matches off clay. Isn't that one match too many?
 
Federer is definitely better than Nadal on fast hard court and grass. There should not even be arguments about it. Nadal is definitely better on clay. The only thing we can argue about is who is better on medium hard court?
 
Gary Duane said:
No argument. But then you are looking at 6 matches on indoor courts and 11 on outdoor HCs. That's 17. There three on grass, so that's 20 matches off clay. Isn't that one match too many?
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All I am saying is that off clay and on clay is misleading. off clay includes outdoor hard courts (which constitute majority of the tour actually) where Nadal has a dominating H2H. If you are doing an objective analysis, it is better to not lump indoor and outdoor hard courts together.
 
Gary Duane said:
No argument. But then you are looking at 6 matches on indoor courts and 11 on outdoor HCs. That's 17. There three on grass, so that's 20 matches off clay. Isn't that one match too many?
Click to expand...


thats the problem, isnt it??

one does not give a fighting chance on Roger's favorite surface b4 calling out a BS H2H stat which is why its flawed from the start.. all H2H says is that the player leading has a set % of chance of beating a given player, but does it guarantee anything?? no, since today's match is proof..
 
Hence proved, Federer is greater than Nadal. Insecurity level of Federer fans may be higher than arrogance level if Fed himself.
 
Solely based on their H2H,

Outdoor HC: Nadal
Clay: Nadal
Grass: Federer slightly
Indoor HC: Federer
 
ForumMember said:
Hence proved, Federer is greater than Nadal. Insecurity level of Federer fans may be higher than arrogance level if Fed himself.
Click to expand...

or mayb certain Nadal fans are still tryin to hang on to a flawed H2H stat and keep mentioning their guy always plays on one knee??
 
zep said:
All I am saying is that off clay and on clay is misleading. off clay includes outdoor hard courts (which constitute majority of the tour actually) where Nadal has a dominating H2H. If you are doing an objective analysis, it is better to not lump indoor and outdoor hard courts together.
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Yes, but Fed is 2/8 on outdoor HCs, not 2/9.

And again, breaking the record into so many sub-categories gives a better idea of how Nadal has utterly dominated on clay, which we all know, but also how the competition has been off clay each year because 15 matches were played on clay, 19 off clay.

I think most of us know that the advantage is with Fed on very fast surfaces, and since faster surfaces seem to be more common in indoor tennis (frankly I don't know why this is) Fed may be even better indoors than he is on grass.

We could also do a comparison of Bo3 and Bo5 matches, comparing also how the advantage has shifted with age.

But that gets really complicated.
 
Gary Duane said:
Yes, but Fed is 2/8 on outdoor HCs, not 2/9.

And again, breaking the record into so many sub-categories gives a better idea of how Nadal has utterly dominated on clay, which we all know, but also how the competition has been off clay each year because 15 matches were played on clay, 19 off clay.

I think most of us know that the advantage is with Fed on very fast surfaces, and since faster surfaces seem to be more common in indoor tennis (frankly I don't know why this is) Fed may be even better indoors than he is on grass.

We could also do a comparison of Bo3 and Bo5 matches, comparing also how the advantage has shifted with age.

But that gets really complicated.
Click to expand...


AGE... another huge problem with this H2H stat..
 
Gary Duane said:
I think most of us know that the advantage is with Fed on very fast surfaces, and since faster surfaces seem to be more common in indoor tennis (frankly I don't know why this is) Fed may be even better indoors than he is on grass.
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I don't agree with it. Indoor HC has a completely different dynamics to it. Nadal is a much better player on fast HCs than he is on indoors. Look at the NA wing. Nadal has won 4 masters and 2 slams there and has a bunch of final/semis. He is nowhere near as successful on indoor HC. Also Nadal has played Federer twice on fast HCs (Dubai in 2006 and Cincy in 2013) and has won both of those matches. So you don't know that Federer would have had a clear advantage if they played more in the North American summer swing. As I posted above, as it is, the breakdown is quite simple, based on facts. As far as their rivalry goes,

Outdoor HC: Nadal
Clay: Nadal
Grass: Federer slightly
Indoor HC: Federer

The majority of the tour is on outdoor HC and clay and hence their H2H is lopsided in Nadal's favor.
 
AceSalvo said:
thats the problem, isnt it??

one does not give a fighting chance on Roger's favorite surface b4 calling out a BS H2H stat which is why its flawed from the start.. all H2H says is that the player leading has a set % of chance of beating a given player, but does it guarantee anything?? no, since today's match is proof..
Click to expand...
The H2H shows overall dominance, and also dominance by surface. It tells how dominance see-saws in players who are separated by several years.

It is true that Nadal, for various reasons, has only played Fed three times on grass. But I would say this is more a weakness in the grass season itself, which now hugely under-represents the surface that was at one time the most important surface in tennis. A player could just as easily miss the clay season or HC season, year after year, if there were so few tournaments on that surface.

It's not as if Nadal built his ranking each year only on clay, and missing Wimbledon so many times hurt his potential ranking in those years.
 
zep said:
I don't agree with it. Indoor HC has a completely different dynamics to it. Nadal is a much better player on fast HCs than he is on indoors. Look at the NA wing. Nadal has won 4 masters and 2 slams there and has a bunch of final/semis. He is nowhere near as successful on indoor HC. Also Nadal has played Federer twice on fast HCs (Dubai in 2006 and Cincy in 2013) and has won both of those matches. So you don't know that Federer would have had a clear advantage if they played more in the North American summer swing. As I posted above, as it is, the breakdown is quite simple, based on facts. As far as their rivalry goes,

Outdoor HC: Nadal
Clay: Nadal
Grass: Federer slightly
Indoor HC: Federer

The majority of the tour is on outdoor HC and clay and hence their H2H is lopsided in Nadal's favor.
Click to expand...


2004 - 2008.. how many HC between NAdal and Fed??? 4/(19*4)?? yep, a measly 4???

2009 Roger is where NAdal is today.. age does catch up quickly... from here its adv NAdal..
 
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Gary Duane said:
2004 - 2007:

Off clay, 5/2 to Fed.
(On clay, 6/1 to Nadal)

They played as many times on clay as on HCs and grass.

I'm interested in the rivalry off clay. Nadal leads by a huge margin on clay against both Novak and Fed, and he is responsible for denying FIVE grand slams to these guys, three times to Fed, two times to Novak. It should be obvious to anyone with a working brain that Nadal clearly leads any argument about GOAT player on clay.

But I'm interested in the competition off clay.

2008:

Only one meeting off clay the entire year, at Wimbledon

5/3 in favor of Fed.

2009:

One meeting at the AO

5/4, Fed still leads.

2010

Fed wins the WTF:

6/4 to Fed.

2011

Fed wins the WTF again, Nadal wins Miami

7/5 to Fed.

2012:

Fed wins Indian Wells, Nadal wins the AO.

8/6 to Fed.

2013:

Nadal wins all three meetings off clay.

8/9 to Nadal

2014:

Nadal wins at the AO.

8/10 to Nadal

2015:

Fed wins Basel

9/10 to Nadal

Off clay Fed was always ahead until 2013, having a pretty clear advantage against a 5 year younger player until the end of 2007, and Nadal has edged ahead as is usual for a younger player as the older player extends his career.

Overall I find these guys to be exceptionally close off clay, and that could be why we so much enjoy their matches.

(On clay it will most likely remain a beat-down, and unlike many I expect that to continue against Novak if Nadal gets his mojo back.)

If I have screwed up my figure, please correct me.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

My thoughts are it would be more fair to weight the surfaces, rather than eliminate one completely. But, let's try to play a game where we give Federer every possible advantage and address all the concerns about the H2H. So...

They are roughly equal off clay, but Nadal still leads in the slam h2h 4-2 off clay

But some say the last 2 meeting at AO are unfair due to Roger's age...so let's discount those.

Then we are tied at 2-2 off clay. All 4 of those meetings are before or up until Roger was 27, the same age Nadal won 2 slams in 2013. 3 of those 4 meetings happened at Federer's fortess of Wimbledon. Nadal was able to win there once, after losing narrowly the year before. (Fed was never able to beat Nadal at RG).

A further final criticism from H2H denialists would be that the 2 never met at USO, however while Fed is better at USO than AO, I would say Nadal also is better at USO..yes it's true when playing poorly Nadal tends to not "meet his end of the bargain" and his lack of consistency is reflected in his career not being as accomplished as Federer's...but when the 2 both make it thru and are playing well, Nadal seems to have been superior in H2H encounters.

Bottom line, Fed has had a better career. But Nadal is better head to head, especially in important matches. The slam head to head is only TIED when giving Federer every possible advantage and discounting matches on clay, after Fed got "old" etc. Today, Nadal almost beat Fed on a fast indoors court after being in a terrible slump all season. He's Fed's bogeyman. It speaks for itself.
 
AceSalvo said:
AGE... another huge problem with this H2H stat..
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Maybe, maybe not. If you look at H2Hs against rivals who were separated by about 5 years it is normal for the younger player to start out being totally dominated.

Check Connors against Borg, when he was very young, Borg against JMac when JMac was very young. Normally the older player greatly dominates, then there is parity, then the H2H see-saws in favor of the younger player. The longer the competition, the more likely it is that the younger player will eventually come out on top.

What Nadal accomplished even during Fed's peak is an anomaly. And what Fed is accomplishing now, past the age of 30, is also an anomaly!
 
125downthemiddle said:
My thoughts are it would be more fair to weight the surfaces, rather than eliminate one completely. But, let's try to play a game where we give Federer every possible advantage and address all the concerns about the H2H. So...

They are roughly equal off clay, but Nadal still leads in the slam h2h 4-2 off clay

But some say the last 2 meeting at AO are unfair due to Roger's age...so let's discount those.

Then we are tied at 2-2 off clay. All 4 of those meetings are before or up until Roger was 27, the same age Nadal won 2 slams in 2013. 3 of those 4 meetings happened at Federer's fortess of Wimbledon. Nadal was able to win there once, after losing narrowly the year before. (Fed was never able to beat Nadal at RG).

A further final criticism from H2H denialists would be that the 2 never met at USO, however while Fed is better at USO than AO, I would say Nadal also is better at USO..yes it's true when playing poorly Nadal tends to not "meet his end of the bargain" and his lack of consistency is reflected in his career not being as accomplished as Federer's...but when the 2 both make it thru and are playing well, Nadal seems to have been superior in H2H encounters.

Bottom line, Fed has had a better career. But Nadal is better head to head, especially in important matches. The slam head to head is only TIED when giving Federer every possible advantage and discounting matches on clay, after Fed got "old" etc. Today, Nadal almost beat Fed on a fast indoors court after being in a terrible slump all season. He's Fed's bogeyman. It speaks for itself.
Click to expand...

almost beat Fed with a 6-3, 6-3 beatdown in 2 sets??

Kohli and Goffin did better..
 
AceSalvo said:
2004 - 2008.. how many HC between NAdal and Fed??? 4/(19*4)?? yep, a measly 4???

2009 Roger is where NAdal is today.. age does catch up quickly... from here its adv NAdal..
Click to expand...
I think 5 meetings on HCs and 2 on grass between 2004 and 2007, so I believe your number is low.
7 meetings on clay in the same period, 14 meetings total. A bit more than 1/3 of their meetings were on HCs, not high, but not terribly low either.

And again, for someone so often called the GOAT to win 6/7 meetings during his absolute peak on any surface is a bit unusual.

Nothing about Fedal is "usual"...
 
zep said:
I don't agree with it. Indoor HC has a completely different dynamics to it. So you don't know that Federer would have had a clear advantage if they played more in the North American summer swing.
Click to expand...

The term "faster" is broader than just the amount of drag from the surface - it describes the entire game. The HC bounce is true and predictable; indoors there is no wind, no sun, no clouds and moving shadows, so it is possible to play a more offensive, aggressive game by hitting the ball harder, keeping it lower and closer to the lines. Low-percentage shots turn into higher-percentage ones on fast/indoor courts, so they start to make sense.

Perfect conditions help Federer play faster and do what he does best, winning points and matches offensively. Outdoors (especially on clay with high, unpredictable bounces) his talents simply do not pay off nearly as much.
 
Gary Duane said:
I think 5 meetings on HCs and 2 on grass between 2004 and 2007, so I believe your number is low.
7 meetings on clay in the same period, 14 meetings total. A bit more than 1/3 of their meetings were on HCs, not high, but not terribly low either.

And again, for someone so often called the GOAT to win 6/7 meetings during his absolute peak on any surface is a bit unusual.

Nothing about Fedal is "usual"...
Click to expand...


WRONG.. 4 on HC and 2 on Grass..

EDIT - 5 on HC it is..
 
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Looking at the final yesterday, I thought Federer would've beaten Nadal pretty much every time had they met more often in 2015. That has been the biggest problem in their H2H. When Nadal is hot, he is too hot for Federer to handle. When Nadal is bad, he is so bad that he can't get past early rounds to get to Federer.
 
AceSalvo said:
thats your problem... pea brain proved..

nothing wrong in what I said.. something wrong in what you understood.. did I say consecutive sets???
Click to expand...

Lmao...you should be banned for not admitting your error. Straight means consecutive. I pray English is not your first language.
 
Ok nadal beats federer more often than not.

Ok, not news.

What matters is Nole will most likely end up having a better h2h against two of the greatest!

With noles achievements inching closer to the bIG 2, it will end the debate of who has the greatest h2h record, and puts the fedal h2h into irrelevance.
 
PeterHo said:
Ok nadal beats federer more often than not.

Ok, not news.

What matters is Nole will most likely end up having a better h2h against two of the greatest!

With noles achievements inching closer to the bIG 2, it will end the debate of who has the greatest h2h record, and puts the fedal h2h into irrelevance.
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Novak bringing balance to this imbalanced H2H discussion.. yep, I surely can wait for that day.. I hope all these crazy logistics still apply.. that'll be some fun..
 
Gary Duane said:
2004 Miami
2005 Miami
2006 Dubai
2006 Tennis Masters Cup
2007 Tennis Masters Cup

5 HC matches...

Which match are you not counting?
Click to expand...

2005 Miami was great that Roger came back down 2 sets to love. However, Nadal was about to be up a break and serve it out at the end of the 3rd and was the victim of a clearly wrong line call. I remember Fedfans at the time admitting he stole the match. I remember it well, It was one of the 1st matches I watched beginning to end with seriousness.
 
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