The Locked-Down Serve of Jannik Sinner - by Jeff Sackmann

[Rovesciarete]

Brilliant research about a most remarkable aspect of the tactical serve approach by the number 1:

In 2024, there were only five matches in which a top-ten player failed to generate a single break point over more than ten return games. Twice the victim was Hubert Hurkacz, probably the weakest returner among the elites. Another hapless outing came from Casper Ruud, who was held to zero by Zverev at the Tour Finals.

The other two standout matches belong to Sinner. In last year’s Australian Open semi-final, then again in the Shanghai title match, he shut down Novak Djokovic. The only recent precedents for Sinner’s plastering of Zverev are the Italian’s own performances.

The most valuable part of the article, supported by detailed data follows and the logical conclusion follows:

With the exception of 40-15, this list is an awfully good approximation of point scores listed by importance. With more at stake, the Italian hit harder. There’s no apparent trade-off, either. He made more first serves than average at 15-30 and deuce, even with the faster strikes.

The point is that when Sinner feels the need to go big, he has the ability to do so. Most players don’t: Their results don’t get better in critical moments, either because they’re already maxing out their skills on routine points, or because their opponents can raise their levels, as well. But the Australian Open champ has more in the tank than anybody who dares to stand across the net from him.

Best to read Jannik Sinner’s Missing First Serve Points by Sackmann, written after the 2020 Miami as a follow-up:

In Sunday’s Miami Open final, Jannik Sinner posted some very odd stats in his straight-set loss to Hubert Hurkacz. He won a respectable 48.4% of his second serve points–three points behind the the ATP top 50’s average since the restart–but only 55.3% of his first serve points. First serve points are the bread and butter of the offensive game, and Sinner got only as much out of that as Casper Ruud derives from his second serve.

 

[SneederFeeder]

Validates the eye-test that Sinner won this AO (and last year's USO) while playing his B game at most.

It's scary how much of a tank he is in HC best of 5. He hasn't really been challenged to his limits since the AO final vs Medvedev, after which he's only gotten even better.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Brilliant research about a most remarkable aspect of the tactical serve approach by the number 1:



The most valuable part of the article, supported by detailed data follows and the logical conclusion follows:



Best to read Jannik Sinner’s Missing First Serve Points by Sackmann, written after the 2020 Miami as a follow-up:

A player who can hold a percentage of almost 74% of points won on break points in his service games, as he did last year, who is the same player who has won 25 of the last 28 tiebreaks played, it seems clear to me that he has an innate ability to raise the level on command.

When the sample analyzed is small it can be dictated by variance, when instead it is so large, it can no longer be just chance.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Validates the eye-test that Sinner won this AO (and last year's USO) while playing his B game at most.

It's scary how much of a tank he is in HC best of 5. He hasn't really been challenged to his limits since the AO final vs Medvedev, after which he's only gotten even better.

I wouldn't say B game but he reserves some serve A game for special occasions. Shelton seems to have a similar approach and ironically Kyrgios in his better days. However the floor is obviously higher for Jannik...

 

[Rovesciarete]

A player who can hold a percentage of almost 74% of points won on break points in his service games, as he did last year, who is the same player who has won 25 of the last 28 tiebreaks played, it seems clear to me that he has an innate ability to raise the level on command.

When the sample analyzed is small it can be dictated by variance, when instead it is so large, it can no longer be just chance.

The article certainly details a clear plan and ability to raise the level for dangerous points. Without proper execution strategy is meaningless and Jannik delivers the goods.

 

[Rovesciarete]

A great graph from Tennis Abstract's Top Spin blog:

Explains much of Daniil's troubles and Sinner's dominance....