The Most Exclusive (Stat) Clubs In Tennis

[Rovesciarete]

Jeff Sackmann writes that to qualify for Alex’s “top ten club,” a player needs to be in the top ten in both hold percentage and break percentage–in other words, to be an elite server and returner.

To qualify for Alex’s “top ten club,” a player needs to be in the top ten in both hold percentage and break percentage–in other words, to be an elite server and returner. Even cracking the top 25 club is no easy task. In 2023, only 11 men were better than half of the top 50 on both sides of the ball. …

The top-25 club is a high standard, and the top-ten club is a stratospheric one. This year, only three men–Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, and Carlos Alcaraz–made the cut, and Alcaraz almost missed it, ranking 10th in hold percentage. Daniil Medvedev almost qualified, but he trailed Alcaraz by 0.7% in hold percentage and came in 11th in that category.

The ‘top4 cluster’, as I call it, is a strong one. Charlie’s hold percentage is partly lower due to the amount of clay matches.

Three top-ten clubbers is, as it turns out, an unusual showing. In the 33 seasons for which we have the necessary stats to calculate hold and break percentage (back to 1991), only 13 men have ever managed the feat. Many of them did it several times, so there are a total of 49 player-seasons that qualify. For the two-plus decades between 1991 and 2011, there were only two seasons in which more than one player reached both top-ten thresholds. In 1992, the entire tour fell short.

Djokovic was absurdly good this year in holding and breaking serve, being top three in both. Only Agassi did as well, twice.

Sinner’s 2023 campaign was also sneakily great. He finished a deceptive fourth on the official ATP points table, but by ranking fifth in hold percentage and fourth in break percentage, he joined an absurdly elite group of top-five clubbers: only Djokovic, Agassi, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer.

That is good company for the fox.

 

[Dwell]

Sinner's game has too many upsides for him to not become great.
Suppose he continues with incremental improvements to each part of his game like he's been doing over the past few years.
Because his base stats are so high, he doesn't need to be the greatest strategist, the most clutch or the most physically resilient on the tour.
He just needs to keep adding to every piece until his game becomes so overwhelming good that the matches "win" themselves until slam SFs.
That's when he kicks in that extra gear and I know he has it somewhere.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I agree pretty much. This season he played only few matches on clay, which increases his hold percentage. Still, he was serving far worse in the first part the season so we can expect higher hold percentages in 2024.

There’s likely a higher percentage of breakes coming in too, so he might qualify again for the top five club!

 

[Rovesciarete]

Obviously if one is especially strong in one area one doesn't have to excel as much in the other. Federer was a great returner but performed better at holding serve relative to the other big 2.

What stands out in this list is how Nadal but more so Djokovic have shifted in the relative rankings. Obviously the biggest servers have retired but look how they became better at serve+ aspect. The entry of two-three elite returners in the last years underrate arguably the brake% ranking of Novak.

Here’s the full list of top-five club seasons since 1991:

Year Player H% Rk B%Rk Club
2023 Novak Djokovic 1 3 3
1999 Andre Agassi 3 1 3
1995 Andre Agassi 3 3 3
2021 Novak Djokovic 4 3 4
2013 Rafael Nadal 4 1 4
2008 Rafael Nadal 4 1 4
2002 Andre Agassi 4 3 4
2023 Jannik Sinner 5 4 5
2019 Rafael Nadal 5 1 5
2017 Rafael Nadal 5 2 5
2015 Novak Djokovic 5 1 5
2014 Novak Djokovic 5 2 5
2012 Rafael Nadal 5 1 5
2007 Rafael Nadal 5 2 5
2006 Roger Federer 2 5 5
2003 Andre Agassi 5 3 5

This excellent placement doesn't make Sinner a favourite to win a slam next years as there is the old wolf on top and the Spaniards at the ready but it underlines his continuous transformation into a very balanced elite player.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Maybe this makes it easier to check the raw numbers of Jeff at a glance:

Here’s the full list of top-ten club seasons since 1991:

Year Player HRk BRk CLUB
2023 Novak Djokovic 1 3 3
1999 Andre Agassi 3 1 3
1995 Andre Agassi 3 3 3
2021 Novak Djokovic 4 3 4
2013 Rafael Nadal 4 1 4
2008 Rafael Nadal 4 1 4
2002 Andre Agassi 4 3 4
2023 Jannik Sinner 5 4 5
2019 Rafael Nadal 5 1 5
2017 Rafael Nadal 5 2 5
2015 Novak Djokovic 5 1 5
2014 Novak Djokovic 5 2 5
2012 Rafael Nadal 5 1 5
2007 Rafael Nadal 5 2 5
2006 Roger Federer 2 5 5
2003 Andre Agassi 5 3 5

Year Player HRk BRk CLUB
2022 Novak Djokovic 6 4 6
2013 Novak Djokovic 6 2 6
2021 Daniil Medvedev 7 4 7
2020 Rafael Nadal 7 2 7
2019 Novak Djokovic 7 2 7
2012 Novak Djokovic 7 2 7
2011 Novak Djokovic 7 1 7
2010 Rafael Nadal 2 7 7
2008 Novak Djokovic 7 4 7
2004 Roger Federer 2 7 7
2021 Alexander Zverev 8 7 8
2020 Daniil Medvedev 8 8 8
2018 Novak Djokovic 8 5 8
2016 Novak Djokovic 8 2 8
2015 Roger Federer 4 8 8
2005 Roger Federer 2 8 8
2001 Andre Agassi 8 3 8
1998 Marcelo Rios 8 2 8
1991 Stefan Edberg 4 8 8

Year Player HRk BRk CLUB
2022 Daniil Medvedev 8 9 9
2020 Andrey Rublev 9 5 9
2018 Rafael Nadal 9 1 9
2017 Roger Federer 2 9 9
2009 Andy Murray 9 2 9
2007 Roger Federer 3 9 9
2000 Andre Agassi 8 9 9
2023 Carlos Alcaraz 10 1 10
2020 Novak Djokovic 10 4 10
2019 Roger Federer 3 10 10
2013 Roger Federer 7 10 10
1998 Andre Agassi 10 3 10
1994 Andre Agassi 10 5 10
1993 Thomas Muster 10 4 10

 

[Rovesciarete]

A quick Look at the WTP

Depending on how you define a full-season, Iga might be the first ever woman to reach such a standard, at least in the nine-year span for which we can do the math. Here is the full list of top-ten clubbers back to 2015:

Year Player H% Rk B% Rk CLUB
2016 Victoria Azarenka 2 1 2
2023 Iga Swiatek 3 3 3
2022 Iga Swiatek 5 1 5
2019 Serena Williams 1 6 6
2015 Serena Williams 1 7 7
2016 Serena Williams 1 8 8
2016 Angelique Kerber 10 6 10

 

[Kralingen]

Agassi is so underrated.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Agassi is so underrated.

In quite some ways yes. His stats on Tennisabstract undervalue his return prowess as the key surfaces were faster, tech less favourable and more bigger matches got charted.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Jeff Sackmann writes that to qualify for Alex’s “top ten club,” a player needs to be in the top ten in both hold percentage and break percentage–in other words, to be an elite server and returner.


The ‘top4 cluster’, as I call it, is a strong one. Charlie’s hold percentage is partly lower due to the amount of clay matches.



Djokovic was absurdly good this year in holding and breaking serve, being top three in both. Only Agassi did as well, twice.



That is good company for the fox.

I was looking at stats similar to these a few weeks back and Djokovic had an absurdly great season.

And as @Dwell points out, there are just too many indicators and predictors that show that sinner is going to have a great career for not to happen sans injury.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Just an update before the tour visits the USA and things at the top are unlikely to change. Looking at the last 52 weeks we have a rare 3 members in the top-ten club: Sinner, Djokovic and Alcaraz.

Sinner is even in the rarest of them all, the top-three. He has been superb in the first two months so he might have a chance to become the third player in history after Djokovic and Agassi to be among the three best at holding and breaking.

Rk	Player	SPW​	SPW-InP​	Ace%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	2%-InP​	Hld%​
8	Hubert Hurkacz [POL]	69.8%​	65.6%​	16.5%​	2.2%​	63.9%​	79.7%​	52.3%​	55.6%​	89.3%​
3	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	68.3%​	67.1%​	8.4%​	2.4%​	59.8%​	76.4%​	56.2%​	59.7%​	88.6%​
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]	69.7%​	68.8%​	9.1%​	2.7%​	63.1%​	78.5%​	54.7%​	59.0%​	88.6%​
1	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	69.3%​	68.6%​	8.8%​	3.0%​	63.9%​	76.0%​	57.3%​	62.6%​	87.6%​
19	Nicolas Jarry [CHI]	68.1%​	66.1%​	10.6%​	2.5%​	65.3%​	76.2%​	52.8%​	56.8%​	86.7%​
34	Christopher Eubanks [USA]	67.5%​	65.2%​	13.1%​	3.4%​	69.5%​	74.1%​	52.5%​	59.1%​	86.6%​
6	Alexander Zverev [GER]	67.7%​	66.3%​	10.3%​	3.1%​	71.3%​	74.3%​	51.4%​	57.7%​	86.4%​
2	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	67.3%​	67.4%​	5.6%​	2.9%​	65.9%​	72.6%​	56.9%​	62.2%​	86.2%​
10	Taylor Fritz [USA]	68.1%​	66.0%​	11.7%​	2.9%​	59.8%​	77.3%​	54.4%​	58.6%​	86.0%​
13	Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]	67.7%​	67.4%​	9.6%​	4.2%​	62.0%​	77.7%​	51.4%​	57.8%​	85.4%​

Rk	Player	RPW​	RPW-InP​	vAce%​	v1st%​	v2nd%​	Brk%​	MdOppRk​	MnOppRk​
2	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	41.6%​	41.4%​	4.8%​	34.6%​	53.9%​	29.6%​	28.0​	48.5​
3	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	40.4%​	41.7%​	7.7%​	31.9%​	54.5%​	28.5%​	31.0​	43.5​
9	Alex De Minaur [AUS]	40.6%​	40.9%​	5.9%​	33.1%​	52.3%​	28.0%​	40.5​	86.5​
1	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	40.4%​	42.4%​	8.8%​	32.1%​	54.6%​	27.8%​	20.0​	40.9​
4	Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	39.7%​	40.0%​	4.9%​	31.9%​	53.3%​	27.8%​	22.0​	43.3​
22	Francisco Cerundolo [ARG]	39.1%​	38.8%​	4.7%​	32.2%​	50.9%​	27.0%​	60.0​	83.1​
30	Sebastian Baez [ARG]	39.8%​	40.0%​	5.7%​	31.8%​	53.0%​	26.5%​	73.0​	85.6​
24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina [ESP]	38.9%​	39.7%​	7.2%​	30.7%​	52.1%​	25.3%​	43.5​	75.3​
10	Taylor Fritz [USA]	38.7%​	38.5%​	6.3%​	29.8%​	53.0%​	24.7%​	50.0​	74.7​
14	Tommy Paul [USA]	38.6%​	38.6%​	5.8%​	31.2%​	50.7%​	24.6%​	53.5​	77.2​

 

[Neptune]

Excellent job, as always.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Update before the European clay swing. Alcaraz is no longer among the top10 in hold percentage, maybe partly due to the clay bias. Djokovic has been slipping but is still a member of the exclusive top 10 club.

Sinner has now move up to something we haven never seen over a full calendar year for which we have the data. Djokovic and Agassi managed to get into the top 3 club, but Sinner is now first in hold and second in break percentage!

Player	SPW​	SPW-InP​	Ace%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	2%-InP​	Hld%​
Jannik Sinner [ITA]	69.1%​	68.0%​	8.3%​	2.4%​	60.5%​	76.8%​	57.2%​	60.9%​	89.6%​
Hubert Hurkacz [POL]	69.8%​	65.6%​	16.2%​	2.1%​	63.6%​	79.7%​	52.6%​	55.9%​	89.3%​
Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]	69.1%​	68.1%​	9.1%​	2.8%​	62.3%​	77.9%​	54.5%​	58.9%​	87.8%​
Novak Djokovic [SRB]	69.1%​	68.4%​	8.7%​	2.9%​	63.9%​	76.2%​	56.7%​	61.6%​	87.6%​
Christopher Eubanks [USA]	67.8%​	65.4%​	13.1%​	3.3%​	69.8%​	74.4%​	52.5%​	59.0%​	87.1%​
Alexander Zverev [GER]	67.7%​	66.3%​	10.1%​	3.0%​	71.3%​	74.0%​	52.0%​	58.1%​	86.9%​
Nicolas Jarry [CHI]	68.2%​	66.2%​	10.8%​	2.5%​	65.0%​	76.8%​	52.4%​	56.4%​	86.7%​
Andrey Rublev [RUS]	67.1%​	65.5%​	8.9%​	2.2%​	61.9%​	75.4%​	53.8%​	57.1%​	86.2%​
Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]	68.1%​	67.7%​	9.7%​	4.1%​	62.4%​	77.5%​	52.4%​	58.8%​	86.1%​
Taylor Fritz [USA]	68.1%​	65.7%​	12.4%​	2.8%​	60.3%​	76.8%​	55.0%​	59.2%​	85.9%​

Player	RPW​	RPW-InP​	vAce%​	v1st%​	v2nd%​	Brk%​	PtsW/RG​	MnOppRk​
Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	41.9%​	41.7%​	4.6%​	34.9%​	54.2%​	30.3%​	2.9​	49.3​
Jannik Sinner [ITA]	40.6%​	42.1%​	8.0%​	32.7%​	54.2%​	28.7%​	2.7​	45.1​
Alex De Minaur [AUS]	40.9%​	41.1%​	5.7%​	33.1%​	53.1%​	28.5%​	2.7​	67.4​
Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	40.0%​	40.4%​	4.9%​	32.3%​	53.5%​	28.5%​	2.6​	40.7​
Sebastian Baez [ARG]	40.5%​	40.7%​	5.5%​	33.4%​	52.4%​	27.9%​	2.7​	85.7​
Novak Djokovic [SRB]	40.5%​	42.3%​	8.6%​	31.9%​	55.1%​	27.9%​	2.7​	42.4​
Jack Draper [GBR]	38.6%​	39.7%​	7.6%​	29.8%​	52.9%​	27.0%​	2.4​	52.1​
Francisco Cerundolo [ARG]	38.7%​	38.6%​	4.6%​	32.0%​	50.5%​	26.7%​	2.5​	81.8​
Tommy Paul [USA]	39.0%​	39.2%​	5.7%​	32.2%​	50.5%​	25.3%​	2.6​	81.7​
Taylor Fritz [USA]	38.4%​	38.2%​	6.1%​	30.0%​	51.8%​	24.4%​	2.5​	77.7​

Be aware of a likely recency bias due to more mapped matches against lower-ranked opposition.

 

[Rovesciarete]

So far this year Sinner is now first in hold and second in break percentage. Never happened in a full year since 1991; Novak was 1 and 3 once, Andre 3 and 1 also once. Will be very difficult indeed to finish ahead of those brilliant ball-strikers.

Top ranking Alcaraz breaks at an incredible rate, Djokovic holds third most. Carlos 10th in hold, Novak 10th in break percentage.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This year he played a lot on the natural surfaces which didn't favor him the past. It will be almost impossible to overtake Carlos in the break percentage due to his great clay season but he might defend the position as the player hardest to break.

 

[Rovesciarete]

So far this year Sinner is now first in hold and second in break percentage. Never happened in a full year since 1991; Novak was 1 and 3 once, Andre 3 and 1 also once. Will be very difficult indeed to finish ahead of those brilliant ball-strikers.

Top ranking Alcaraz breaks at an incredible rate, Djokovic holds third most. Carlos 10th in hold, Novak 10th in break percentage.

Crazy that he truly did it in both categories. First member in this club, there was likely never a player with the stratospheric serve/return+baseline combo of Sinner.

 

[Fabrivitx]

Sinner's game has too many upsides for him to not become great.
Suppose he continues with incremental improvements to each part of his game like he's been doing over the past few years.
Because his base stats are so high, he doesn't need to be the greatest strategist, the most clutch or the most physically resilient on the tour.
He just needs to keep adding to every piece until his game becomes so overwhelming good that the matches "win" themselves until slam SFs.
That's when he kicks in that extra gear and I know he has it somewhere.

Spot on