The myth that Federer would beat Djokovic on fast surfaces

Madinolf

Madinolf

Rookie
Slams Djokovic and Federer met ordered by the percentage of aces hit by the players in the tournament:

2014 Wimbledon 11.1%
2015 Wimbledon 10.4%
2016 Australian Open 9.7%
2012 Wimbledon 9.5%
2015 US Open 9.0%
2020 Australian Open 9.0%
2008 US Open 8.6%
2019 Wimbledon 8.6%
2007 Australian Open 8.5%
2010 US Open 8.4%
2007 US Open 8.2%
2011 Australian Open 8.0%
2009 US Open 7.4%
2008 Australian Open 7.1%
2011 US Open 7.1%
2012 Roland Garros 5.9%
2011 Roland Garros 5.6%

H2H score in the 6 tournaments with the most aces (in bold) --> 5-1 Djokovic
 
WildRevolver

WildRevolver

Hall of Fame
Excellent defense, in all sports, travels to any condition or environment and puts the person or team in a position to win more often than not. Federer plays good defense and had amazing offense. But Novak is the greatest defender of all time, and combines it with a strong array of offensive weapons. It doesn't matter what surface you're on, Novak's game is going to be incredibly hard to beat.
 
Nadal_Django

Nadal_Django

Legend
Madinolf said:
Slams Djokovic and Federer met ordered by the percentage of aces hit by the players in the tournament:

2014 Wimbledon 11.1%
2015 Wimbledon 10.4%
2016 Australian Open 9.7%
2012 Wimbledon 9.5%
2015 US Open 9.0%
2020 Australian Open 9.0%
2008 US Open 8.6%
2019 Wimbledon 8.6%
2007 Australian Open 8.5%
2010 US Open 8.4%
2007 US Open 8.2%
2011 Australian Open 8.0%
2009 US Open 7.4%
2008 Australian Open 7.1%
2011 US Open 7.1%
2012 Roland Garros 5.9%
2011 Roland Garros 5.6%

H2H score in the 6 tournaments with the most aces (in bold) --> 5-1 Djokovic
Click to expand...
Staggering data. Thanks for sharing(y)
 
MichaelNadal

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
beard said:
Imagine writing 76739 posts at tennis forum... No, imagine just clicking button Reply 76739 times... :sneaky:
Click to expand...

TENNIS-HEALTH-VIRUS-DJOKOVIC


:love:
 
xFedal

xFedal

Legend
Madinolf said:
Slams Djokovic and Federer met ordered by the percentage of aces hit by the players in the tournament:

2014 Wimbledon 11.1%
2015 Wimbledon 10.4%
2016 Australian Open 9.7%
2012 Wimbledon 9.5%
2015 US Open 9.0%
2020 Australian Open 9.0%
2008 US Open 8.6%
2019 Wimbledon 8.6%
2007 Australian Open 8.5%
2010 US Open 8.4%
2007 US Open 8.2%
2011 Australian Open 8.0%
2009 US Open 7.4%
2008 Australian Open 7.1%
2011 US Open 7.1%
2012 Roland Garros 5.9%
2011 Roland Garros 5.6%

H2H score in the 6 tournaments with the most aces (in bold) --> 5-1 Djokovic
Click to expand...
A016 played on medium speed or was it medium fast?
 
Biotic

Biotic

Hall of Fame
xFedal said:
A016 played on medium speed or was it medium fast?
Click to expand...

No official CPI data. Only informatiomn came from AO director Tiley, who claimed that 2016 court speed was essentially the same as 2017 edition (42 =medium fast).
 
NatF

NatF

Bionic Poster
All this really shows is that Djokovic won most of the matches in their later career. Ignoring that considering the tour wide serving stats uptick and the larger number of tall servebots etc...in the later 10's and onwards this shows very little anyway.
 
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aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
xFedal said:
https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/tournament?tournamentId=21 They said 16 played very fast. and 17 was fast. Hover over the speed number and it will tell u.
Click to expand...
The Ultimate Tennis Statistics court speed values are out of whack because they are estimated by serve effectiveness statistics, as you can read on the site itself, and as such aren't a direct measure of speed.

the end result is that, according to UTS, some editions of Rome or Madrid (to put an example) have been vastly speedier than 90s Wimbledon.

there's a reason why the speed values are hidden by default in many views in the site

from the mouth of the legend himself said:
Court Speeds
Very Fast Fast Medium Fast Medium Medium Slow Slow Very Slow

Court Speed Index tries to estimate tournament event's court speed based on overall Ace %, Service Points Won % and Service Games Won %, averaged in a way to eliminate dependency on participating players dominant playing style (for more details see Glossary page).

[the aforementioned Glossary page:]
  • Court Speed - Court Speed Index (1 - 100): 80 * cube-root(Ace % * (Service Points Won % - 50%) * (Service Games Won % - 50%)) - 56, where statistics figures are adjusted with server's and returner's relative figure difference averaged by season and surface
Click to expand...
Problem of using stats to estimate speed is that it leads to all sorts of circular logic. Such as "tournament X was slow because bad servers did well, also bad servers did well because tournament X was slow."
 
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xFedal

xFedal

Legend
aldeayeah said:
The Ultimate Tennis Statistics court speed values are out of whack because they are estimated by serve effectiveness statistics, as you can read on the site itself, and as such aren't a direct measure of speed.

the end result is that, according to UTS, some editions of Rome or Madrid (to put an example) have been vastly speedier than 90s Wimbledon.

there's a reason why the speed values are hidden by default in many views in the site
Click to expand...
Which years? I think the site does a good job mostly. Someone told me AO2000 played significantly faster nd the data shows that it did.
 
aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
xFedal said:
Which years? I think the site does a good job mostly. Someone told me AO2000 played significantly faster nd the data shows that it did.
Click to expand...
Madrid 2016 has a whooping 69 UTS speed index, for example.

Wimby '95 (with the Sampras Becker final) has 50.

Don't get me wrong, that site is great for many things (such as proving that Djokovic is GOAT, which is ostensibly the reason it exists), but the speed indexes are a big yikes.

Using serve effectiveness data to estimate speed is a bad idea because of circular logic, as I explained before.

2021 AO was supposedly super fast and it scores a 66, lower than most recent years.
 
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Biotic

Biotic

Hall of Fame
@xFedal

ESPN claims that the average CPI from 2016-2020 was 41. In 2017 it was 42, which only means that the rest were comparable, there was no huge deviation, contrary to what the almighty Fedfan eye test says lol.
 
xFedal

xFedal

Legend
aldeayeah said:
Madrid 2016 has a whooping 69 speed index, for example.

Wimby '95 (with the Sampras Becker final) has 50.

Don't get me wrong, that site is great for many things (such as proving that Djokovic is GOAT, which is its ostensible reason of existence), but the speed indexes are a big yikes.

Using serve effectiveness data to estimate speed is a bad idea because of circular logic, as I explained before.

2021 AO was supposedly super fast and it scores a 66, lower than most recent years.
Click to expand...
That tournament has a history of playing fast even on Hard courts. in 2003 it got 100 :oops: . Its known as fastest clay tournament . 2012 blue clay played faster than normal red.
 
Noleberic123

Noleberic123

G.O.A.T.
Madinolf said:
Slams Djokovic and Federer met ordered by the percentage of aces hit by the players in the tournament:

2014 Wimbledon 11.1%
2015 Wimbledon 10.4%
2016 Australian Open 9.7%
2012 Wimbledon 9.5%
2015 US Open 9.0%
2020 Australian Open 9.0%
2008 US Open 8.6%
2019 Wimbledon 8.6%
2007 Australian Open 8.5%
2010 US Open 8.4%
2007 US Open 8.2%
2011 Australian Open 8.0%
2009 US Open 7.4%
2008 Australian Open 7.1%
2011 US Open 7.1%
2012 Roland Garros 5.9%
2011 Roland Garros 5.6%

H2H score in the 6 tournaments with the most aces (in bold) --> 5-1 Djokovic
Click to expand...
It's not a myth
 
R

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
Madinolf said:
Slams Djokovic and Federer met ordered by the percentage of aces hit by the players in the tournament:

2014 Wimbledon 11.1%
2015 Wimbledon 10.4%
2016 Australian Open 9.7%
2012 Wimbledon 9.5%
2015 US Open 9.0%
2020 Australian Open 9.0%
2008 US Open 8.6%
2019 Wimbledon 8.6%
2007 Australian Open 8.5%
2010 US Open 8.4%
2007 US Open 8.2%
2011 Australian Open 8.0%
2009 US Open 7.4%
2008 Australian Open 7.1%
2011 US Open 7.1%
2012 Roland Garros 5.9%
2011 Roland Garros 5.6%

H2H score in the 6 tournaments with the most aces (in bold) --> 5-1 Djokovic
Click to expand...

So only 1 of the faster matches in Fed’s late prime and that one was won decisively by Fed lmao
 
xFedal

xFedal

Legend
Biotic said:
@xFedal

ESPN claims that the average CPI from 2016-2020 was 41. In 2017 it was 42, which only means that the rest were comparable, there was no huge deviation, contrary to what the almighty Fedfan eye test says lol.
Click to expand...
Ultimate Tennis says
08 speed was 53 and same for 2009, in 2010 speed at AO was 52, in 11 55, and in 12 it was 46, in 2013 it was 62 medium fast, in 14 it was 70 fast, in 15 it was 72 fast and in 16 it was 75 which is very fast, 17 it was 68, and 18 it was 66, and 19 it was 83 VERY FAST, 20 was 71 and 2021 was 66.
 
Biotic

Biotic

Hall of Fame
xFedal said:
Ultimate Tennis says
08 speed was 53 and same for 2009, in 2010 speed at AO was 52, in 11 55, and in 12 it was 46, in 2013 it was 62 medium fast, in 14 it was 70 fast, in 15 it was 72 fast and in 16 it was 75 which is very fast, 17 it was 68, and 18 it was 66, and 19 it was 83 VERY FAST, 20 was 71 and 2021 was 66.
Click to expand...

I don't know what those numbers are, I'm certain they are not CPI, which is the most reliable.
 
RS

RS

Bionic Poster
Madinolf said:
Slams Djokovic and Federer met ordered by the percentage of aces hit by the players in the tournament:

2014 Wimbledon 11.1%
2015 Wimbledon 10.4%
2016 Australian Open 9.7%
2012 Wimbledon 9.5%
2015 US Open 9.0%
2020 Australian Open 9.0%
2008 US Open 8.6%
2019 Wimbledon 8.6%
2007 Australian Open 8.5%
2010 US Open 8.4%
2007 US Open 8.2%
2011 Australian Open 8.0%
2009 US Open 7.4%
2008 Australian Open 7.1%
2011 US Open 7.1%
2012 Roland Garros 5.9%
2011 Roland Garros 5.6%

H2H score in the 6 tournaments with the most aces (in bold) --> 5-1 Djokovic
Click to expand...
Does this mean Djokovic is better than Federer everywhere?
 
aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
xFedal said:
Ultimate Tennis says
08 speed was 53 and same for 2009, in 2010 speed at AO was 52, in 11 55, and in 12 it was 46, in 2013 it was 62 medium fast, in 14 it was 70 fast, in 15 it was 72 fast and in 16 it was 75 which is very fast, 17 it was 68, and 18 it was 66, and 19 it was 83 VERY FAST, 20 was 71 and 2021 was 66.
Click to expand...
of course, with its ultimatetennisstatistics.com speed score of 60, 2015 Rome Masters should count as a fast court victory for Djokovic

Seriously, don't use those values. You're making a fool out of yourself.
 
xFedal

xFedal

Legend
aldeayeah said:
of course, with its ultimate tennis speed score of 60, 2015 Rome Masters should count as a fast court victory for Djokovic

Seriously, don't use those values. You're making a fool out of yourself.
Click to expand...
Am talking about slams not masters events. Rome or clay got nowt to do with this convo.
 
Omega_7000

Omega_7000

Legend
NatF said:
All this really shows is that Djokovic w9j most of the matches in their later career. Ignoring that considering the tour wide serving stats uptick and the larger number of tall servebots etc...in the later 10's and onwards this shows very little anyway.
Click to expand...

Yeah exactly. Not sure how OP is coming to a sweeping conclusion based on this data :unsure:
 
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