The Numbers Behind The Big Four's Dominance

[clayqueen]

Novak Djokovic owned 2015. Andy Murray surged to World No. 1 in 2016, and it’s been the Roger and Rafa show so far in 2017.

The Big Four have all had their time in the sun during the past two-and-a-half years, and all are ranked in the Top Four of the Emirates ATP Rankings this week.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers breakdown of their first-serve percentage when serving down break point in both the deuce and ad courts from the 2015 season to the present time provides deeper insight into the metrics that define their greatness.

1. Overall Record
Novak Djokovic has the highest match-win percentage of the Big Four since the start of the 2015 season, at 88.6 percent, with Roger Federer in second place, at 85.2 per cent.



2. Deuce Court - First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
Nadal is the clear leader in this category, making 73.7 per cent of his first serves in the deuce court down break point. The primary pattern for the lefty is to hit a slice serve down the centre of the court, and follow it up with his trademark “Serve +1” forehand.



3. Ad Court - First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
Nadal leads in this category as well, but it’s interesting to note that he makes just 0.2 per cent more first serves in the ad court than the deuce court. Djokovic improved the most in the ad court over the deuce court, up 4.3 percentage points, while Federer and Murray both made fewer serves on this side.



4. Overall - First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
Overall the Big Four played 77.5 per cent of their break points in the ad court. Only Nadal and Djokovic combined to make above 65 per cent of their first serves in both courts during this crucial time of the match.



5. Summary
Putting a first serve in the court when all the drama is unfolding around a break point comes down to simple technique, holding your nerve, and coming up with the the right serve – a flat, slice or kick serve – and placing it in just the right spot – out wide, at the body or down the centre.

The Big Four don’t always follow the same playbook as each other, but their proven dominance at the top of our sport since the start of the 2015 season comes down to owning moments in time just like this.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/big-four-infosys-july-2017

 

[clayqueen]

Rafa leads in all categories. He is the King of the BIG 4!

Rafael Nadal:- The King of Kings.

 

[Chanwan]

Rafa leads in all categories. He is the King of the BIG 4!

Rafael Nadal:- The King of Kings.

Isn't it more important (and more interesting) to see who holds when down BP rather than who puts a first serve in play? We all know Rafa has the highest first serve percentage of the Big 4 - as well as the safest first serve. That ain't news.

Also, Djoko leads in the most important metric presented here: Percentage of matches won, where Rafa is (shocker) last by a good distance.
No wonder Djoko won 5 slams in this period, while Rafa and Murray had to content with one and Fed with 2.

 

[NatF]

Isn't it more important (and more interesting) to see who holds when down BP rather than who puts a first serve in play? We all know Rafa has the highest first serve percentage of the Big 4 - as well as the safest first serve. That ain't news.

Also, Djoko leads in the most important metric presented here: Percentage of matches won, where Rafa is (shocker) last by a good distance.
No wonder Djoko won 5 slams in this period, while Rafa and Murray had to content with one and Fed with 2.

Why do you even bother

 

[clayqueen]

Isn't it more important (and more interesting) to see who holds when down BP rather than who puts a first serve in play? We all know Rafa has the highest first serve percentage of the Big 4 - as well as the safest first serve. That ain't news.

Also, Djoko leads in the most important metric presented here: Percentage of matches won, where Rafa is (shocker) last by a good distance.
No wonder Djoko won 5 slams in this period, while Rafa and Murray had to content with one and Fed with 2.

You are talking about injured Rafa.

 

[Chanwan]

You are talking about injured Rafa.

Rafa wasn't injured in 2015 and did not play after he got injured in 2016, i.e. it doesn't affect these stats
Also, Djoko's been injured since the autumn of 2015 according to himself .

 

[deBroglie]

You are talking about injured Rafa.

The timeframe is unfair - why start with 2015?

 

[mike danny]

All I can see is that so far, since 2015, Federer has done the best after Novak, as he should have.

 

[MasterZeb]

Everyone knows that the real judgement of a players dominance is his ability to be one point away from getting broken, and then put a first serve in. It's Irrelevant how many matches he wins, number of titles etc.

 

[Chanwan]

Everyone knows that the real judgement of a players dominance is his ability to be one point away from getting broken, and then put a first serve in. It's Irrelevant how many matches he wins, number of titles etc.

this
end thread/

 

[rjms]

</thread>

 

[gplracer]

Rafa leads in all categories. He is the King of the BIG 4!

Rafael Nadal:- The King of Kings.

And yet he can only win the French Open. Plus the stats you posted show he has lost more matches than all of the big four. So he also gets the award for either the least consistent or the easiest to beat. Glad you posted that. I did not realize how inconsistent his play the last years has been.

 

[SinjinCooper]

Novak Djokovic owned 2015. Andy Murray surged to World No. 1 in 2016, and it’s been the Roger and Rafa show so far in 2017.

It's the Roger show. Rafa's no longer relevant unless Federer can't be bothered. Nadal only wins pity titles now.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Novak Djokovic has the highest match-win percentage of the Big Four since the start of the 2015 season, at 88.6 percent, with Roger Federer in second place, at 85.2 per cent.

I stopped reading right there. So Djokovic in 2015 is 27.5 years old while Roger Federer is 34 years old, but is in second place. The thread is designed as yet another attack on Fed, yet fails on a truly epic scale. Fed's ancient by tennis standards and if he's in second place for anything, it's an unbelievable accomplishment. If you think it's a level playing field between two tennis players a 6 years age difference and one of them is 34, then it's simply pathetic.

 

[Sartorius]

Everyone knows that the real judgement of a players dominance is his ability to be one point away from getting broken, and then put a first serve in. It's Irrelevant how many matches he wins, number of titles etc.

 

[Rago]

You are talking about injured Rafa.

Yep, so much so that he played a record 24 tournaments in a single season.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Yep, so much so that he played a record 24 tournaments in a single season.

"That's alright because I like the way it hurts, no?" - Rafa ft. Rihanna

 

[clayqueen]

I stopped reading right there. So Djokovic in 2015 is 27.5 years old while Roger Federer is 34 years old, but is in second place. The thread is designed as yet another attack on Fed, yet fails on a truly epic scale. Fed's ancient by tennis standards and if he's in second place for anything, it's an unbelievable accomplishment. If you think it's a level playing field between two tennis players a 6 years age difference and one of them is 34, then it's simply pathetic.

How about 5 years difference in age?

 

[clayqueen]

It's the Roger show. Rafa's no longer relevant unless Federer can't be bothered. Nadal only wins pity titles now.

Roger will give his eye for another RG title.

 

[-NN-]

Roger will give his eye for another RG title.

Although he'll probably never put his full effort into that event ever again.

The winning percentages in the OP show that it's not guaranteed at all to assume that one's winning percentage will drop in their "post-prime" years overall. Years ago people were saying that Fed's career winning percentage would decline significantly but he's actually above his career % for the last two years. Nadal is the only one who is behind his career % for the last two years.

 

[kabob]

Here we have clayqueen cherry-picking only the finest stats and time periods to make her boy look good.

Maria should be jealous of clayqueen's devotion to her man.

 

[TheFifthSet]

It's like she's not even trying anymore

 

[Chanwan]

Why do you even bother

I honestly don't know anymore ;-).
@clayqueen - would you care to answer any of the below:

Isn't it more important (and more interesting) to see who holds when down BP rather than who puts a first serve in play? We all know Rafa has the highest first serve percentage of the Big 4 - as well as the safest first serve. That ain't news.

Also, Djoko leads in the most important metric presented here: Percentage of matches won, where Rafa is (shocker) last by a good distance.
No wonder Djoko won 5 slams in this period, while Rafa and Murray had to content with one and Fed with 2.

You are talking about injured Rafa.

Rafa wasn't injured in 2015 and did not play after he got injured in 2016, i.e. it doesn't affect these stats
Also, Djoko's been injured since the autumn of 2015 according to himself .

thanks in advance queen

 

[clayqueen]

Rafa wasn't injured in 2015 and did not play after he got injured in 2016, i.e. it doesn't affect these stats
Also, Djoko's been injured since the autumn of 2015 according to himself .

Djoker's elbow is a moveable feast. One minute he is entering Acapulco knowing his elbow had been dodgy for a year, he then fires his entire team because he is looking for shock therapy, then he is fully recovered, then he plays Eastbourne off a WC and now he's taking the rest of the year off because of the elbow.

 

[Newcomer]

clayqueen, are you serious?

 

[clayqueen]

Although he'll probably never put his full effort into that event ever again.

Roger knows when he's beaten.

 

[-NN-]

Roger knows when he's beaten.

That makes sense. He's 35 after all and we're talking about the gruelling clay. Maybe Nadal will also know he's beaten at a Slam or two by 2021/2022.

 

[clayqueen]

That makes sense. He's 35 after all and we're talking about the gruelling clay. Maybe Nadal will also know he's beaten at a Slam or two by 2021/2022.

If Rafa is still playing in 2021/2022 I would be very happy.

 

[TennisATP]

Very interesting thread. I have no problem with it because @clayqueen posted statistics and facts, they just happen to favor Rafa but that's nobody's fault. But all in all this thread is first and foremost a great tribute to the big four. They are all truly amazing.

 

[Get A Grip]

The timeframe is unfair - why start with 2015?

I agree. Obvious 2015--2016 was all Djok and then Murray. Fed and Rafa were both injured in those periods. But then all these 1rst serve stats--they are from that period I gather?
So really, it's just a tiny snapshot of a certain kind of stat, not all that significant to my mind. Because if the 1rst serve stats are also from that same period, we know what a subpar period it was for Rafa in terms of results.

 

[-NN-]

Very interesting thread. I have no problem with it because @clayqueen posted statistics and facts, they just happen to favor Rafa but that's nobody's fault. But all in all this thread is first and foremost a great tribute to the big four. They are all truly amazing.

I thought the stats favoured Djokovic the most? During the time-frame he's won the most matches and most Slams. The stuff that follows is a tiny portion of the big picture, which is that from 2015-now Djokovic has been the most dominant player, winning 88.6% of his matches. What a guy.

 

[NBP]

Djoker's elbow is a moveable feast. One minute he is entering Acapulco knowing his elbow had been dodgy for a year, he then fires his entire team because he is looking for shock therapy, then he is fully recovered, then he plays Eastbourne off a WC and now he's taking the rest of the year off because of the elbow.

Clayqueen talks the most nonsense on this forum, but she has a good point here lmao

 

[ghostofMecir]

All I see is 33.5-36 year old Federer has won 85% of matches while a 29-31 year old Nadal has won 78% of his matches during this time period. Hmm.

Weird that you would start a thread showing how much greater Federer is than Nadal.

 

[Get A Grip]

Rafa wasn't injured in 2015 and did not play after he got injured in 2016, i.e. it doesn't affect these stats
Also, Djoko's been injured since the autumn of 2015 according to himself .

Technically Rafa was not injured in 2015, but that was his worst year (I think it was his worst, it felt like it) because in the comeback after the injuries of 2014 he had lost his confidence and really couldn't play well. He was a mess that year.
And we all know Djok was not injured constantly through 2015--when he talks about a history with the elbow injury it's obviously off and on.

But I agree with your earlier point about more important to hold down BP than the fact of putting a 1rst serve into play, and the fact that Rafa has the highest 1rst serve % so what is this telling us we don't already know?

 

[Sirius Black]

I'll have to Muller this one over

 

[Chanwan]

Technically Rafa was not injured in 2015, but that was his worst year (I think it was his worst, it felt like it) because in the comeback after the injuries of 2014 he had lost his confidence and really couldn't play well. He was a mess that year.
And we all know Djok was not injured constantly through 2015--when he talks about a history with the elbow injury it's obviously off and on.

But I agree with your earlier point about more important to hold down BP than the fact of putting a 1rst serve into play, and the fact that Rafa has the highest 1rst serve % so what is this telling us we don't already know?

Yeah, I mean it doesn't make sense to win more or less every single tournament for 9 months while injured. So obviously it can't have been that bad. Also, apparently he never mentioned it to Boris who was with him for a full year after it first appeared. According to someone here, listening to the W-commentary with Boris on air.

As for Rafa and 2015 - yes, his game was a mess. But I think many of us, myself included, were puzzled by it, because there were no injuries to show for it. Hence the big surprise this year at his level being almost back to 2013 or so.

 

[Tennisanity]

Lumping in Rafa with Fed as usual. LOL. If the situation were reversed, someone like veroniquem would chime in with - are you kidding it's not even close Nadal has 2 slams!!!!, Fed only 1.

 

[-NN-]

Additionally, titles won from 2015-now...

Djokovic: 20, including 5 Slams (from 7 finals), a YEC, 10 Masters and 1 YE#1 = 16 full field events won (good lord...)

Murray: 14, including 1 Slam (from 4 finals), a YEC, 5 Masters, 1 OG and 1 YE#1 = 8 full field events won

Federer: 11, including 2 Slams (from 4 finals) and 3 Masters = 5 full field events won

Nadal: 9, including 1 Slam (from 2 finals) and 3 Masters = 4 full field events won



I guess Fedal finally feel like catching up to the superior players of the last 2 years.

 

[Get A Grip]

Yeah, I mean it doesn't make sense to win more or less every single tournament for 9 months while injured. So obviously it can't have been that bad. Also, apparently he never mentioned it to Boris who was with him for a full year after it first appeared. According to someone here, listening to the W-commentary with Boris on air.

As for Rafa and 2015 - yes, his game was a mess. But I think many of us, myself included, were puzzled by it, because there were no injuries to show for it. Hence the big surprise this year at his level being almost back to 2013 or so.

Yep, night and day 2015-2017. He actually started playing really well again in 2016, then the wrist injury. The 2017 comeback was not like 2015 at all, he was almost immediately very good, and there also the addition of Moya, which i think was a big part of it.

For Rafa fans, 2015 was pure torture. I could see what was happening--he had no confidence and couldn't hit the FH with any consistency--sometimes he could but then he couldn't. He started hitting short on a regular basis, putting himself in hopeless chronic defense on court, always scrambling. His serve also went to hell, lots of weak 2nds, it had become very predictable, there were all sorts of problems.

That time off end of 2016 worked wonders, and so did Moya.
Both Fed and Rafa came back recharged, retooled, and it shows. Murray and Djok now injured and/or burned out, (temporarily). Tables turned 180 degrees.

 

[Chanwan]

Yep, night and day 2015-2017. He actually started playing really well again in 2016, then the wrist injury. The 2017 comeback was not like 2015 at all, he was almost immediately very good, and there also the addition of Moya, which i think was a big part of it.

For Rafa fans, 2015 was pure torture. I could see what was happening--he had no confidence and couldn't hit the FH with any consistency--sometimes he could but then he couldn't. He started hitting short on a regular basis, putting himself in hopeless chronic defense on court, always scrambling. His serve also went to hell, lots of weak 2nds, it had become very predictable, there were all sorts of problems.

That time off end of 2016 worked wonders, and so did Moya.
Both Fed and Rafa came back recharged, retooled, and it shows. Murray and Djok now injured and/or burned out, (temporarily). Tables turned 180 degrees.

I believe Moya helped tremendously too, but hard to truly judge unless you're an insider. But yeah, I give him credit for both the retooled served and the much improved forehand as well as the more aggressive game plan.
The forehand was gone in 2015, at least the majority of the time. Inexplicable mistakes time and time again. They added some weight to the head this winter, I believe - may have helped some too.
But confidence is everything for Rafa. Just look at the end of 2009 and then early 2010. Once he started winning again, he became unstoppable.

 

[Get A Grip]

I believe Moya helped tremendously too, but hard to truly judge unless you're an insider. But yeah, I give him credit for both the retooled served and the much improved forehand as well as the more aggressive game plan.
The forehand was gone in 2015, at least the majority of the time. Inexplicable mistakes time and time again. They added some weight to the head this winter, I believe - may have helped some too.
But confidence is everything for Rafa. Just look at the end of 2009 and then early 2010. Once he started winning again, he became unstoppable.

OH yeah, the racquet head I heard that too. Rafa credits Moya for the improvements on the 2nd serve. It 's that specific ...
So true about Rafa and confidence. Once he beleives, look out. When he doesn't, he retreats, overtops the FH, hits short. I couldn't beleive how often in 2015 he looked lost on the court, no anticipation, etc.
Then at AO I saw something entirely different, right from the getgo.
I think the win against Djok in Madrid allowed him to shift up a gear. That was one demon out of his head.

How strange that the new demon is Fed.

 

[Chanwan]

OH yeah, the racquet head I heard that too. Rafa credits Moya for the improvements on the 2nd serve. It 's that specific ...
So true about Rafa and confidence. Once he beleives, look out. When he doesn't, he retreats, overtops the FH, hits short. I couldn't beleive how often in 2015 he looked lost on the court, no anticipation, etc.
Then at AO I saw something entirely different, right from the getgo.
I think the win against Djok in Madrid allowed him to shift up a gear. That was one demon out of his head.

How strange that the new demon is Fed.

I want to see a few more matches, before I would call Fed his new demon. To me, a demon entails that you play worse. I.e. like Fed making mistakes he wouldn't otherwise make, because it's Rafa across the net. Haven't seen that from Rafa with Fed yet. Nor (that much at least) with Djokovic for that matter.

2015 was also the year, where he couldn't hold on to a lead iirc. Lot's of issues serving out the sets, where the DF's would kick in.
I think winning MC layed the brick work, but beating Djoko probably took him up a level. And at the FO, he was unplayable.

 

[Get A Grip]

well, I think IW and Miami def qualify as Rafa playing worse. (He himself said he didn't play well in Indian wells.) Than he he did in AO. Def a new demon in my mind.
If you had to choose a demon now, at this moment in time, Djok or Fed? LOL

 

[Get A Grip]

I want to see a few more matches, before I would call Fed his new demon. To me, a demon entails that you play worse. I.e. Fed making mistakes he wouldn't otherwise make, because it's Rafa across the net. Haven't seen that from Rafa with Fed yet. Nor (that much at least) with Djokovic for that matter.

2015 was also the year, where he couldn't hold on to a lead iirc. Lot's of issues serving out the sets, where the DF's would kick in.
I think winning MC layed the brick work, but beating Djoko probably took him up a level. And at the FO, he was unplayable.

Don't you mean Rafa making mistakes if Fed is his demon? I think you do, but you gave the other as example. But good definition of demon! I agree with that.

 

[-NN-]

Fed played awesomely against Nadal at IW 2017 though. Some scary stuff there and made it very hard for Nadal to play well or even begin to find any real rhythm. Miami was better but Federer was better just in general at IW than Miami. Same stuff again though - very forceful play from Federer taking the racket out of Nadal's hands. If Nadal can find a consistent way to resist Federer over the first about 4 shots, then he'll win again. I think the key is in resisting and neutralising Fed after the first two of his rally shots.

 

[Chanwan]

Don't you mean Rafa making mistakes if Fed is his demon? I think you do, but you gave the other as example. But good definition of demon! I agree with that.

I meant "like Fed has been doing for years vs. Rafa" but maybe failed to write that clearly. To me, AO 2012 and 14 are instances, where Fed lost 10-20 points he wouldn't lose against anyone else. Botched volleys etc. Rafa, for years, just robbed him completely of confidence.
It's hopefully (from a Fed's fans perspective) changed for good now, but I don't think Rafa will have the same problem with Fed. When he's been having losing streaks to Novak, he hasn't been particularly poor in say, BP conversion and failing to make a lot of shots, he normally would. Novak has simply been better at that point in time.
If Fed continues his current streak of 4 wins vs. Rafa, I expect the same to be the case. I.e. Rafa competing well, but Fed - being rid of his demons (knock on wood) - playing better.

Don't get me wrong, but I do think - particularly at this stage of their careers, where Rafa's defensive wall is a bit more penetrable - that Fed wins, if he executes well. Outside of clay of course. If he can execute his aggressive gameplan well enough, he kinda takes the racquet out of Rafa's hands as @nn writes above.

 

[-NN-]

8:28... delicious!

 

[Chanwan]

8:28... delicious!

Indeed!

 

[Djokovic2011]

Djoker's elbow is a moveable feast. One minute he is entering Acapulco knowing his elbow had been dodgy for a year, he then fires his entire team because he is looking for shock therapy, then he is fully recovered, then he plays Eastbourne off a WC and now he's taking the rest of the year off because of the elbow.

A Nadal fan questioning another player's injuries?! Haha, you really couldn't make it up.

 

[SLD76]

Roger will give his eye for another RG title.

Right, that's why he skipped it