The Numbers Behind The Big Four's Dominance

clayqueen said:
Djoker's elbow is a moveable feast. One minute he is entering Acapulco knowing his elbow had been dodgy for a year, he then fires his entire team because he is looking for shock therapy, then he is fully recovered, then he plays Eastbourne off a WC and now he's taking the rest of the year off because of the elbow.
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The supreme and sublime irony of a Nadal fangirl speculating on the veracity and severity of another player's injury....
 
clayqueen said:
Rafa leads in all categories. He is the King of the BIG 4!

Rafael Nadal:- The King of Kings.
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Chanwan said:
Also, Djoko leads in the most important metric presented here: Percentage of matches won, where Rafa is (shocker) last by a good distance.
No wonder Djoko won 5 slams in this period, while Rafa and Murray had to content with one and Fed with 2.
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clayqueen said:
You are talking about injured Rafa.
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No no no, he's talking about "The King of Kings". The "The King of Kings" deserves nothing less than absolute scrutiny. That's what it means to be "The King of Kings".

Also, a bit of a lie there. Rafa didn't lead in all categories. He is last in the % matches won category.

One cannot truly be "The King of Kings" unless he is losing the most matches of the big 4.
 
-NN- said:
Although he'll probably never put his full effort into that event ever again.

The winning percentages in the OP show that it's not guaranteed at all to assume that one's winning percentage will drop in their "post-prime" years overall. Years ago people were saying that Fed's career winning percentage would decline significantly but he's actually above his career % for the last two years. Nadal is the only one who is behind his career % for the last two years.
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For the record:

Fed's lifetime game%=58.05 without TBs, 58.2 with TBs.

Year's below that:
2016
2002
2013
2001
2000
1998
1999

Note that early years drive down the career%, which include 1999-2002. That helps lower the bar. Only 2013 and 2016 pulled down that %.

These are the years above average, on order. Note the position of 2017. :)

Less than 6 months to go. It could go up or down but is unlikely to drop below career average.

2004
2006
2005
2015
2017
2007
2011
2003
2010
2014
2008
2012
2009

Fed has not done as well on points but is still a tiny bit over career average. BP conversion has hurt him this year plus some coasting, but TBs have been the game-changer as much as anything else.
 
Since and including 2013, Federer is currently at 233-49 for 82.62%. So, he's UPPED his career winning % slightly since 2012 and it now stands at 81.81%. At least, I think that's right.
 
-NN- said:
Since and including 2013, Federer is currently at 233-49 for 82.62%. So, he's UPPED his career winning % slightly since 2012 and it now stands at 81.81%. At least, I think that's right.
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I have Fed as this for career:

81.8505

2008-2017

83.2095

2013-2017

82.6241

2014-2017

85.3881
 
Chanwan said:
I meant "like Fed has been doing for years vs. Rafa" but maybe failed to write that clearly. To me, AO 2012 and 14 are instances, where Fed lost 10-20 points he wouldn't lose against anyone else. Botched volleys etc. Rafa, for years, just robbed him completely of confidence.
It's hopefully (from a Fed's fans perspective) changed for good now, but I don't think Rafa will have the same problem with Fed. When he's been having losing streaks to Novak, he hasn't been particularly poor in say, BP conversion and failing to make a lot of shots, he normally would. Novak has simply been better at that point in time.
If Fed continues his current streak of 4 wins vs. Rafa, I expect the same to be the case. I.e. Rafa competing well, but Fed - being rid of his demons (knock on wood) - playing better.

Don't get me wrong, but I do think - particularly at this stage of their careers, where Rafa's defensive wall is a bit more penetrable - that Fed wins, if he executes well. Outside of clay of course. If he can execute his aggressive gameplan well enough, he kinda takes the racquet out of Rafa's hands as @nn writes above.
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OK, I see what you meant, you were talking about Rafa being in Fed's head. Then I agree with what you write.
We all know the edge Rafa had on Fed then, Rafa WAS in Fed's head then, and as a result, (maybe, I'm not entirely convinced of this because I have never thought of it in the way you present, but I find it a compelling analysis, I'm going to keep mulling it over) Fed misses shots he would ordinarily make, because his confidence is shaken in that situation.
Now the reverse is true, between Fed and Rafa.
Maybe another reason for Fed to skip the clay? Just the overall effect losing to Rafa might have had on him, carried onto other surfaces.

I don't think Rafa's defensive wall is more penetrable. If he's a step slower he's doing other things better than he used to--serving for eg., and his BH is more of a weapon.
I don't really want to get into this particular thing again-because I had some highly irritating exchanges on this subject with other fed fans on earlier threads and I'm tired of writing about it, but I didn't have this exchange with you so I'll just put it out there and maybe we can discuss it some other time-- and it's this:
AO--extremely close as you know Rafa was leading 5th set 3/1. Then shanks two easy FHs lets Fed back in. I forget how he got broken a second time, but I remember Fed serving like a demon to the win.
Everyone thought Rafa would win at IW but he got wiped there. By Rafa's own admission he didn't play well, and he didn't. He did play well in AO. Why should Rafa come so close on the fastest CH, then get creamed on the slowest HC? Fed got into his head bigtime in that AO loss, the confidence factor came into play. Then Miami was a different story, Rafa changed his tactic entirely, went into Fed's FH (not that the BH wasn't bearing fruit) and that didn't work at all.

I didn't find Fed's level that impressive in Halle or Wimb, frankly. Good enough for AZ and a blistered Cilic and Raonic and Berdych.
I'm not at all convinced that Fed will have an edge over Rafa on HC now. Given the injection of confidence he's had since Miami.
But we'll have to wait and see. The collision may not even occur, though given what we've seen so far this year, it seems very likely, if not USO someother HC.
 
clayqueen said:
Rafa leads in all categories. He is the King of the BIG 4!

Rafael Nadal:- The King of Kings.
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images


:cool:
 
Djokovic2011 said:
A Nadal fan questioning another player's injuries?! :oops: Haha, you really couldn't make it up.
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Your alter ego is out of date. You should now be Djokovic2017 and that will keep you quiet for a while. If you buy this Djoker elbow thing then explain why he decided to play Acapulco and Eastbourne.
 
xFullCourtTenniSx said:
No no no, he's talking about "The King of Kings". The "The King of Kings" deserves nothing less than absolute scrutiny. That's what it means to be "The King of Kings".

Also, a bit of a lie there. Rafa didn't lead in all categories. He is last in the % matches won category.

One cannot truly be "The King of Kings" unless he is losing the most matches of the big 4.
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They shouldn't start with 2015 as Nadal was suffering mentally; that's picking and choosing the stats.
 
gplracer said:
And yet he can only win the French Open. Plus the stats you posted show he has lost more matches than all of the big four. So he also gets the award for either the least consistent or the easiest to beat. Glad you posted that. I did not realize how inconsistent his play the last years has been.
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Everyone knows that Rafa struggled in 2015 how come you didn't?
 
TennisATP said:
Very interesting thread. I have no problem with it because @clayqueen posted statistics and facts, they just happen to favor Rafa but that's nobody's fault. But all in all this thread is first and foremost a great tribute to the big four. They are all truly amazing.
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Really? Well that's amazing. Cause you clearly had a problem when stats that also could be used to show the dominance of the big three supported Federer
TennisATP said:
Stats are meaningless unless they favor Federer.
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https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...teresting-grand-slam-statistics.595136/page-5
 
clayqueen said:
Everyone knows that Rafa struggled in 2015 how come you didn't?
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I do see that he struggled in 2015. Federer has struggled as well. I also recognize that Nadal is the best clay court player of all time. You said he was the king of kings and the stats you provided do not show that. Unfortunately for Nadal he will continue to have a challenge due to his physical decline and playing style. Plus the younger players are not affected as much by his topspin because they have grown up hitting against more players with heavy topspin. Tennis has changed. That said he is still a great player.
 
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clayqueen said:
If you buy this Djoker elbow thing then explain why he decided to play Acapulco and Eastbourne.
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Because he was feeling fine heading into those tournaments? Just because he says the elbow's been bothering him for 18 months doesn't necessarily mean it was a problem for him at every event he entered. Tbh I find it strange how you can be so skeptical about a guy who's played as much tennis throughout his career as Djokovic has, especially in the last 5-6 years. I mean, what would he need to do exactly for you to believe him? o_O
 
Get A Grip said:
OK, I see what you meant, you were talking about Rafa being in Fed's head. Then I agree with what you write.
We all know the edge Rafa had on Fed then, Rafa WAS in Fed's head then, and as a result, (maybe, I'm not entirely convinced of this because I have never thought of it in the way you present, but I find it a compelling analysis, I'm going to keep mulling it over) Fed misses shots he would ordinarily make, because his confidence is shaken in that situation.
Now the reverse is true, between Fed and Rafa.
Maybe another reason for Fed to skip the clay? Just the overall effect losing to Rafa might have had on him, carried onto other surfaces.

I don't think Rafa's defensive wall is more penetrable. If he's a step slower he's doing other things better than he used to--serving for eg., and his BH is more of a weapon.
I don't really want to get into this particular thing again-because I had some highly irritating exchanges on this subject with other fed fans on earlier threads and I'm tired of writing about it, but I didn't have this exchange with you so I'll just put it out there and maybe we can discuss it some other time-- and it's this:
AO--extremely close as you know Rafa was leading 5th set 3/1. Then shanks two easy FHs lets Fed back in. I forget how he got broken a second time, but I remember Fed serving like a demon to the win.
Everyone thought Rafa would win at IW but he got wiped there. By Rafa's own admission he didn't play well, and he didn't. He did play well in AO. Why should Rafa come so close on the fastest CH, then get creamed on the slowest HC? Fed got into his head bigtime in that AO loss, the confidence factor came into play. Then Miami was a different story, Rafa changed his tactic entirely, went into Fed's FH (not that the BH wasn't bearing fruit) and that didn't work at all.

I didn't find Fed's level that impressive in Halle or Wimb, frankly. Good enough for AZ and a blistered Cilic and Raonic and Berdych.
I'm not at all convinced that Fed will have an edge over Rafa on HC now. Given the injection of confidence he's had since Miami.
But we'll have to wait and see. The collision may not even occur, though given what we've seen so far this year, it seems very likely, if not USO someother HC.
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Running out, so just a short reply: "Now the reverse is true, between Fed and Rafa."
Don't think that's the case. I don't think Rafa is yet at the point, where he plays worse vs. Fed, because Fed is in his head. Certainly not already in IW, that would be insane for one match to essentially do that to him.
But even when Rafa was in Fed's head there would be stretches in a match, where Fed was unplayable. That happened more this year.
Will have to revisit those two shanked forehands. I don't think Rafa choked. Fed had 11 BP's in the 5th set alone. Rafa saved 9 of them iirc. It was the cumulative pressure, Fed kept pressing and eventually he found the opening.

IW was more about Fed playing lights out than Rafa playing poor (although he didn't play well) imo.
Miami was close too.
I don't think he'll have a big edge on Rafa on HC at all. I do think Rafa's game should be better on HC post the HC season. But if my analysis is correct: Rafa is, currently, out of Fed's head -> fewer unnecessary mistakes + the old tactic of serving and hitting to the backhand doesn't pay the usual dividends, then Fed should in my opinion be winning on HC even against a well playing Rafa.
Essentially, because of the neo backhand (provided it still holds up), we are for the first time in this rivalry at a stage, where Rafa has to think about tactics. In the past, as he writes in his book it was simple: Keep hitting and serving to the backhand again and again and again. I believe he said you couldn't even call it a tactic.

We shall see.
 
Djokovic2011 said:
Because he was feeling fine heading into those tournaments? Just because he says the elbow's been bothering him for 18 months doesn't necessarily mean it was a problem for him at every event he entered. Tbh I find it strange how you can be so skeptical about a guy who's played as much tennis throughout his career as Djokovic has, especially in the last 5-6 years. I mean, what would he need to do exactly for you to believe him? o_O
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Is this actually possible Nadal fans are actually questioning Djokovic's injury?
You have got to be kidding me?
Is this the story being perpetuated throughout Vamos Brigadia?
LMAO the lack of self awareness and hypocrisy is mind numbing.
 
swordtennis said:
Is this actually possible Nadal fans are actually questioning Djokovic's injury?
You have got to be kidding me?
Is this the story being perpetuated throughout Vamos Brigadia?
LMAO the lack of self awareness and hypocrisy is mind numbing.
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I look at it from the bright side.

That way they pull the rug from under their own feet.
 
Get A Grip said:
OK, I see what you meant, you were talking about Rafa being in Fed's head. Then I agree with what you write.
We all know the edge Rafa had on Fed then, Rafa WAS in Fed's head then, and as a result, (maybe, I'm not entirely convinced of this because I have never thought of it in the way you present, but I find it a compelling analysis, I'm going to keep mulling it over) Fed misses shots he would ordinarily make, because his confidence is shaken in that situation.
Now the reverse is true, between Fed and Rafa.
Maybe another reason for Fed to skip the clay? Just the overall effect losing to Rafa might have had on him, carried onto other surfaces.

I don't think Rafa's defensive wall is more penetrable. If he's a step slower he's doing other things better than he used to--serving for eg., and his BH is more of a weapon.
I don't really want to get into this particular thing again-because I had some highly irritating exchanges on this subject with other fed fans on earlier threads and I'm tired of writing about it, but I didn't have this exchange with you so I'll just put it out there and maybe we can discuss it some other time-- and it's this:
AO--extremely close as you know Rafa was leading 5th set 3/1. Then shanks two easy FHs lets Fed back in. I forget how he got broken a second time, but I remember Fed serving like a demon to the win.
Everyone thought Rafa would win at IW but he got wiped there. By Rafa's own admission he didn't play well, and he didn't. He did play well in AO. Why should Rafa come so close on the fastest CH, then get creamed on the slowest HC? Fed got into his head bigtime in that AO loss, the confidence factor came into play. Then Miami was a different story, Rafa changed his tactic entirely, went into Fed's FH (not that the BH wasn't bearing fruit) and that didn't work at all.

I didn't find Fed's level that impressive in Halle or Wimb, frankly. Good enough for AZ and a blistered Cilic and Raonic and Berdych.
I'm not at all convinced that Fed will have an edge over Rafa on HC now. Given the injection of confidence he's had since Miami.
But we'll have to wait and see. The collision may not even occur, though given what we've seen so far this year, it seems very likely, if not USO someother HC.
Click to expand...

Interesting post. There are some things I agree with and others I don't. I'd say Rafa can be penetrated more easily than before as he is a good step slower. This is probably the reason for his increased aggression and work on serve which both paid dividends and makes him just as tough now, as you said yourself.

As for AO, Rafa didn't shank any FH's. He hit the tip of the net on a point for 4-2 but Rog read it anyway. He didn't let Rog back in but rather hung on for dear life in every single game and he simply couldn't save them all. For the 2nd break Rafa first saved 0-40 then finally gave it up after Rog simply wouldn't let him get to Adv. Federer was a mental giant there after being denied so many BP's he still wouldn't go away and worked really hard for every break, nothing was gifted.

I also find it strange you think Nadal's approach at Miami didn't work. He actually seemed much closer there than at IW, at least to me. That one could have gone both ways if just a few points went the other way.

Completely agree on your assesment of Federer's grass season level. Not impressed at all, but he somehow got over the line fairly easily. I'd also say that I'd only give a very slight edge to Rog over Rafa at outdoor HC till the end of season, but I'd be quite confident Federer would win all indoor duels.
 
clayqueen said:
They shouldn't start with 2015 as Nadal was suffering mentally; that's picking and choosing the stats.
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But didn't you also start with 2015? You can't cry bias if you go with it as well.

All your numbers prove is that first serve percentages don't mean nearly as much as people think they do.
 
clayqueen said:
Roger says he skipped RG this year because he knew Rafa was playing too well.


"Best Tweets: Federer dropping out of the French Open because he’s scared of Nadal"
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If you say so


Meanwhile, Rafa has been skipping the finals of Wimbledon for 6 years and winning a WTF since forever
 
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