The OFFICIAL 2010 Australian Open Men's Draw Discussion Thread

I'm really interested to see how this all plays out.

Of course, since the tournament hasn't started, we can only assume that the seeds will make it so far as to play each other.

But, there's always upsets (well, almost always). Of those projected QFs, I bet 1 or 2 of the top 8 won't make it.

Can't wait until Sunday night when coverage starts in the US.
 
I'm really interested to see how this all plays out.

Of course, since the tournament hasn't started, we can only assume that the seeds will make it so far as to play each other.

But, there's always upsets (well, almost always). Of those projected QFs, I bet 1 or 2 of the top 8 won't make it.

Can't wait until Sunday night when coverage starts in the US.

That'd be one of the most successful slams in a long time, in terms of seeds in the QF's.

I think it'll be more like half of the top 8 make the quarters.

Yeah, half.
 
very interesting draw. I think in terms of overall caliber of players, Fed has a more difficult draw than rafa, but when you factor in Fed's h2h against the players he's likely going up against (which is exceptionally favorable), rafa's draw is worse.

I can definitely see the players who are hurt coming in (especially monfils) taking an early exit. also, just for fun, I've got koellerer and youzhny getting to the fourth round. long live the wild men! :)
 
Are you kidding me?

Is this the first Australian Open you will be watching in your life?

I think we've all seen enough to know, by know, that the probability of everyone playing up to their seeding to the quarterfinals is very, very, very low

I doubt Nadal will play Murray AND Del Potro - he'll, most likely, face one or the other.

Way too many surprises in the history of the Aussie Open to expect much from the draw.

Besides, I expect one of Murray and Del Potro to flake out before the QF's, anyways. It'll probably be a Rafa-Roddick semifinal

If this was the USO, I'd agree- Nadal's f***ed... but these are slow HC's in the middle of the blazing hot Australian summer.

Nadal's the only Aussie Open champ in his half. There's 2 of those in the other half.

The thing is, people would still be complaining about Fed getting an 'easy' draw and Nadal getting screwed, even if the draws were switched.

If the draws were switched, with Davy, Djoker, and Sod in Nadal's QTR, and Roddick, JMDP, and Murray in Fed's, people would talk about how Djoker, Davy, and Sod all at least recently seem to own Nadal on HC, and Roddick is Fed's duck, Murray's a pusher who probably won't get that far & can't win in slams, and make up some excuse about how JMDP's USO win was a fluke and point to the match at last year's AO as a reason that JMDP can't beat Fed on 'slow HC', so Fed has a cakewalk draw.

It all boils down to one main point - pretty much anyone you put in Fed's side not named Nadal is going to look easy, b/c he's so dominant against everyone else. Even JMDP he still has a healthy h2h advantage over. And Nadal's draw is always going to look hard, since he's so vunerable on HC against good HC players like JMDP & Murray.

Judging by recent form, and the recent matches he's had against these guys, the toughest guys Fed could have drawn would be JMDP, Davydenko, and Djokovic, and he got 2 of those 3 in his half. I don't see how anyone could definitively say Fed has a "cakewalk" draw.
 
Jbfan you keep saying that but it's not true. I responded to your same post in another thread! Nadal or Murray has to beat three top 5 players to win. Dp has to beat two. Fed has to beat at most two.
 
Jbfan you keep saying that but it's not true. I responded to your same post in another thread! Nadal or Murray has to beat three top 5 players to win. Dp has to beat two. Fed has to beat at most two.

How do we know that for sure? The draw can always change.

What part of my post is not true? I'm not saying Nadal has an easy draw, just making the point that any draw Nadal gets on HC is going to be difficult, b/c of his relative weakness on the surface.

And any draw Fed gets is going to look easy, b/c he's so dominant against so many guys in slams.
 
The point is that fed dp only have to play two top five players ( projected) and nadal Murray have to play three (projected). Why don't you get that? I'm not concerned so much bc nadal can beat anyone. Do you get what I'm saying. Three top five players in four days??
 
Also if fed had drawn Murray dp I would have said he had bad luck too. In fact someone posted fake draw saying that and I said sucks for fed!
 
I don't see how anyone could definitively say Fed has a "cakewalk" draw.

I fully agree with you. Neither Nadal nor Federer have easy draws.

My point was just that this is the Australian Open, notorious for upsets. Draws mean much less than, let's say, at the US Open.
 
Are you kidding? The WORST draw possible for Nadal.

Ask anyone who they would HATE "most" to face in the QF. The answer is Murray.

Really Nadal is 7-2 against Murray and owns him on slow hard courts..

Ask anyone who they would HATE to face in the SF. The answer is Delpo.

Really Delpo looks a bit flamed out and apparently is also injured..Djoker also has been quite troublesome to Nadal on hardcourts as well.

Ask anyone who they would HATE to face as a floater in the 3rd round. The answer is Isner.

Gasquet, Blake, Karlovic, Bags, Sela are just as dangerous as Isner.


Rafa's got them all. I think Rafa could go out in the 3rd round or the QF. If he gets past Muzza in a tough 5 set match, he will be wiped out in the SF by Delpo. There's no way in hell, Nadal is beating Murray, Delpo, Federer in 3 consecutive matches.

Well that sucks then because he is going to have to I mean seriously cause really taking out Davy, Djokovic and Nadal for Fed is a super easy task.

Fed couldn't have asked for a easier draw. He's a lock till QF where he should most likely avenge his defeat to the Russian by crushing him in straights. In the SF Djoker doesn't have the cojones to take a set off Federer in a slam and they both know that.

LMFAO. Andreev, Bags, Hewitt have all done so in the past..and all may again. I don't think Davy will roll over and die either look at him as of late. He fought back down a bagel.

So Fed's a lock till the final where he'll face a VERY tired Muzz, Rafa or Delpo.

SF1 Fed vs Djokovic
SF2 Muzz vs Delpo

Final: Fed vs very tired Delpo
W: #16

Lmao..You make me laugh. Who said Muzz and Delpo will make it to the semis. Hell Muzz hasn't made the quarters of a hardcourt slam in a while and AO is just not his cup of tea.
 
I fully agree with you. Neither Nadal nor Federer have easy draws.

My point was just that this is the Australian Open, notorious for upsets. Draws mean much less than, let's say, at the US Open.

Exactly. just look at 2002-2009 to see this.
 
In my opinion the hardest draw goes to Del Potro and Djokovic has the easiest.

1. Del Potro
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Djokovic

Good news for Novak fans. Hopefully he can save his energy for the later rounds
 
Exactly. just look at 2002-2009 to see this.

Which is my philosophy for the AO, when cheering for my favorite player, is don't worry about it.

Upsets WILL happen

Where were Murray and Djoker in the semi's last year?

Don't be surprised if Delpo and Davy suffer the same fate.
 
That'd be one of the most successful slams in a long time, in terms of seeds in the QF's.

I think it'll be more like half of the top 8 make the quarters.

Yeah, half.

I agree with this, this is the Australian Open where upsets happen all the time, I think last year was quite fortunate with 7 out of the 8 seeds making the quarters (Murray losing to Verdasco of course)
 
I fully agree with you. Neither Nadal nor Federer have easy draws.

My point was just that this is the Australian Open, notorious for upsets. Draws mean much less than, let's say, at the US Open.

Agreed about these pre-tourney draw talks being nearly meaningless. Heck, just look how the French turned out, no one predicted Nadal going out to Soderling of all people. Just proves that nothing in tennis is easy to predict.

For all we know Fed could go out, have a shankfest, and lose to Andreev just like that. Of course that's pretty slim shot of happening, but nothing is impossible in tennis. That's why all these pre-tourney prognostications about hard/easy draws are pretty hard to stand by.
 
Agreed about these pre-tourney draw talks being nearly meaningless. Heck, just look how the French turned out, no one predicted Nadal going out to Soderling of all people. Just proves that nothing in tennis is easy to predict.

For all we know Fed could go out, have a shankfest, and lose to Andreev just like that. Of course that's pretty slim shot of happening, but nothing is impossible in tennis. That's why all these pre-tourney prognostications about hard/easy draws are pretty hard to stand by.

Of course all the talk about hard/easy draws could be meaningless. But it's fun to speculate and discuss anyway.
 
I think Nadal and Federer, have some very hard draws. Federer has Andreev in the first round and Nadal has Isner and Karlovic looming in his section.
 
The point is that fed dp only have to play two top five players ( projected) and nadal Murray have to play three (projected). Why don't you get that? I'm not concerned so much bc nadal can beat anyone. Do you get what I'm saying. Three top five players in four days??

This!

For others: Banking on the seeds now holding up is fine. But statistically Nadal and Murray have the toughest draw.

I don’t think Djokovic would have been a tougher draw for Rafa than Del Potro is in the SF. Djokovic last won a slam 2 years ago (and has massively underperformed in slams since). He hasn’t beaten Rafa in a slam recently. Del Potro is the “inform” upcoming player, won the last grandslam and creamed Rafa over there 2,2 and 2. Besides, given the matchup issues, Del Potro could even beat Rafa on a hardcourt “even” if the later is playing at his very best. I’m not sure the same could be said of Djokovic.

Also for the Semi-Final ask Federer and Nadal who would they rather "NOT" face in the SF b/w Djokovic and Del Potro. I'm sure both would say Del Potro.
 
Last edited:
Andreev is hardly a tough 1st round player now.

Even Peter Luczak has more wins lately :lol:

LOL Andreev lost to Golubev in straights at the Hopman Cup and was handed a bagel and breadstick from Murray, too.

I'm sure Fed will destroy him.
 
The point is that fed dp only have to play two top five players ( projected) and nadal Murray have to play three (projected). Why don't you get that? I'm not concerned so much bc nadal can beat anyone. Do you get what I'm saying. Three top five players in four days??

Why are you arbitrarily picking the top 5 players? Federer may have to play 2 of the top 3 players to win, Nadal can only play 1. Federer and Nadal both may have to play 3 of the top 6 to win. You could have chosen the top any number of players. The only reason you chose the top 5 is because it supports your argument.

A player can have an unfairly tough draw every once in a while, but when people cry wolf on every single draw that comes out, it's kinda hard to take them seriously.
 
Interesting draw this year.

Section 1

There will be an interesting second round matchup between Baghdatis and Simon! Baggy is in good form now while Simon is still a doubt because of his knee injury...so I think I'll give this to Baggy,to lose to Hewitt in a epic 5-setter lol. Fed has a tough 1st round opponent,but he should be able to prevail.

Projected 4th round matchup - Federer vs Hewitt,winner Federer.

Section 2

I seriously cannot see anyone spoiling a Verdasco-Davy 4th round match except for Gulbis and probably Ferrero.

Projected 4th round matchup - Verdasco vs Davydenko,winner Davydenko.

Section 3

There's a great 1st round matchup here - Youzhny vs Gasquet...cannot decide who will win this,but I'll give it to Reeshard only becus he seems to be playing quite well now. Djokovic should be able to hold off all his opponents from the 1st to 3rd rounds,his 4th round opponent will either be Gasquet or Robredo.

Projected 4th round matchup - Gasquet vs Djokovic,winner Djokovic.

Section 4

Jo-Willy has a few tough early rounds to deal with...Stakhovsky surprised me when he won St.Petersburg,then the unpredictable volley master Dent in the 2nd,then Tipsarevic or Haas in the 3rd. Soderling has an easier path,should be able to reach the 4th round granted his injury has subsided.

Projected 4th round matchup - Jo-Willy vs Soderling,winner Jo-Willy lol.

Section 5

Wow,Roddick has tough luck. His quarter is so far one of the toughest for his ranking. :shock: He should be able to dispatch Bakker but Bellucci is very impressive for his age. If he can beat Bellucci,he should have no problems beating Lopez and Querrey. 4th round potential opponent is only either Berdych or Gonzo,I cannot see anyone in that section upsetting either one of them. I'll give it to Berdych then..Gonzo's recently got hit in the balls.

Projected 4th round matchup - Roddick vs Berdych,winner Roddick.

Section 6

Delpo's section is moderately difficult. Faces either Blake or Clement in the 2nd round and both have been playing some good tennis recently. Then Troicki,who can be dangerous at times,but I think Delpo should be able to ease through. Wth,its Delpo and Cilic again lol,Cilic against Wawrinka in the 3rd round should be interesting,but I think Cilic has the better game currently. And Cilic should be able to beat Santoro...or are we smelling a potential upset here?

Projected 4th round matchup - Del Potro vs Cilic(again!),winner Delpo,but it will be pretty tight.

Section 7

Murray should get to the 4th round easily granted nothing big happens,no dangerous opponents until the 4th round with either Ferrer or Monfils. And oh,there's Crazy Dani. I think Ferrer edges Monfils,Monf seems to be struggling with injury.

Projected 4th round matchup - Murray vs Ferrer,winner Murray.

Section 8

Oooh,another great 1st round matchup in this section - Stepanek vs Karlovic,a repeat of the epic 5 set tiebreaks in last year's Davis Cup SF. Stepanek goes through,but he faces tough opponents like Benneteau and Ljubicic and Fish. I think Ljubo will get thru. As for Nadal,the only true remotely dangerous opponent comes in the 3rd round against the big serving Isner. Still,not good enough for Nadal I think.

Projected 4th round matchup - Nadal vs Ljubicic,winner Nadal.

Quarterfinals -

Federer bt Davydenko in an epic 5 set thriller before Davy finally crumbles
Djokovic bt Jo-Willy. Jo has shadows of the AO 08 Final and succumbs.
Delpo bt Roddick in another 5-setter(I love both players but i guess Delpo's 3-0 record against Roddick should help a little more than the heat)
Nadal bt Murray in another 5-setter(LOVE THIS MATCHUP)

Semifinals

Federer bt Djokovic(but there's def place for Djokovic to win this)
Nadal bt Delpo(Delpo will realise his wrist injury is coming back and Nadal gaining more confidence after beating Murray)

Final

Oh,a Fed-Nadal final again...lol
 
Nice draw for Nadal!
Hewitt will have a tough 3rd round match against either Simon or Baghdatis.

The hardest draw goes to Federer...
 
So either nadal plays Murray then delpo then fed or he plays the hot streak player/s who beats one of them? Great!!

LMAO! That happens at every tournament for every player in the latest rounds: you either have to face a favorite or someone who beat a favorite. And, incidentally, at that point you are either a favorite or beat a favorite.
 
I hope for at least one more Federer-Nadal 5-setter in a GS final in my lifetime. Those two are the greatest GS players of this generation and produce tennis matches that belong to eternity.
 
I hope for at least one more Federer-Nadal 5-setter in a GS final in my lifetime. Those two are the greatest GS players of this generation and produce tennis matches that belong to eternity.

I hope with you, but rather not in these conditions. I like Federer to win one more.. So let's do it at the US Open.

Btw, for me it doesn't necessarily have to be a GS final.
 
5 of those wins came pre USO 08. They are as relevant as Hewitt's early wins over Federer.

You don't understand how TW works re H2H records. Where Murray's H2H is +ve H2H, is meaningless. Where Murray's H2H is -ve, H2H is a key input to Murray's chances.

Murray is 2-1 v Rafa since entering the top 6 and one of those was in a slam.
 
You don't understand how TW works re H2H records. Where Murray's H2H is +ve H2H, is meaningless. Where Murray's H2H is -ve, H2H is a key input to Murray's chances.

Murray is 2-1 v Rafa since entering the top 6 and one of those was in a slam.

Yes... TW works weird. Another example? Sure.

Federer won the first 7 matches against Del Potro, but lost the last two, therefore Del Potro owns him and is a murderous draw.
Federer won the first 12 matches against Davydenko, but lost the last two, therefore Davydenko is a clown, a Federer fanboy and a ridiculously easy draw.
 
Yes... TW works weird. Another example? Sure.

Federer won the first 7 matches against Del Potro, but lost the last two, therefore Del Potro owns him and is a murderous draw.
Federer won the first 12 matches against Davydenko, but lost the last two, therefore Davydenko is a clown, a Federer fanboy and a ridiculously easy draw.

While you go the hyperbole route, remember Del Potro's victory over Federer came in a slam. And the final no less. (Which is even more special as no one other than Nadal has done it). Delpo also took Roger to 5 in the F.O and would have won it had his legs not given way.

Davydenko hasn't done anything notable in five set matches. I'm sure he himself wouldn't believe that he can take 3 sets off Federer in a match even if the Swiss had a broken leg.

So yes Delpo is a bigger opponent than Davydenko. In fact other than Nadal, Delpo is the ONLY other player Fed would LEAST like to face. No wonder he's ecstatic to see him in the other half. The final appearance is more or less booked.
 
While you go the hyperbole route, remember Del Potro's victory over Federer came in a slam. And the final no less. (Which is even more special as no one other than Nadal has done it). Delpo also took Roger to 5 in the F.O and would have won it had his legs not given way.

Davydenko hasn't done anything notable in five set matches. I'm sure he himself wouldn't believe that he can take 3 sets off Federer in a match even if the Swiss had a broken leg.

So yes Delpo is a bigger opponent than Davydenko. In fact other than Nadal, Delpo is the ONLY other player Fed would LEAST like to face. No wonder he's ecstatic to see him in the other half. The final appearance is more or less booked.

Let's just agree to disagree. While I agree Delpo is slightly tougher than Davy, (which is usual because he's no.4 seed and a possible SEMI only), I think the differences are always exaggerated, and there will always be people complaining about Federer's draw. I expect at least 3 really tough matches for Federer this AO.
 
Why are you arbitrarily picking the top 5 players? Federer may have to play 2 of the top 3 players to win, Nadal can only play 1. Federer and Nadal both may have to play 3 of the top 6 to win. You could have chosen the top any number of players. The only reason you chose the top 5 is because it supports your argument.

A player can have an unfairly tough draw every once in a while, but when people cry wolf on every single draw that comes out, it's kinda hard to take them seriously.

1) if fed had drawn Murray del potro I would have said he had the worst draw

2) there is a big difference between top 4-5 and the rest. Murray has made a hc slam final and del po won the last one. Sure djoke is toug but fed doesn't gave him till semis and Davy hasn't shown much in 5 setters

3) I just joined tw so I couldn't have cried wolf on any prior draws.
 
So either nadal plays Murray then delpo then fed or he plays the hot streak player/s who beats one of them? Great!!

So would you rather Nadal had to beat Kolja,Novak and Fed in succesion(if he had Fed's draw)? Nadal is Kolja's biatch on HC and Novak kinda owns him on that surface as well and unlike Delpo and Murray has actually won AO in the past proving this surface suits him.

Either way you spin it,chances are good Nadal will always face a tough draw at AO and USO because there are plenty of guys who can hurt him on HC(unlike on grass and of course clay).
 
So would you rather Nadal had to beat Kolja,Novak and Fed in succesion(if he had Fed's draw)? Nadal is Kolja's biatch on HC and Novak kinda owns him on that surface as well and unlike Delpo and Murray has actually won AO in the past proving this surface suits him.

Either way you spin it,chances are good Nadal will always face a tough draw at AO and USO because there are plenty of guys who can hurt him on HC(unlike on grass and of course clay).
This was the point I was trying to make yesterday. Any draw for federer will seem like cakewalk on any surface since there are very few who have beat him in slam. Federer fairs alot better against most of the players who are bad match ups for nadal. The only way people will say that Federer has a tough draw is if somehow he played Davydenko, Del potro, Murray, Nadal and Djokovic in one tournament.
 
So would you rather Nadal had to beat Kolja,Novak and Fed in succesion(if he had Fed's draw)? Nadal is Kolja's biatch on HC and Novak kinda owns him on that surface as well and unlike Delpo and Murray has actually won AO in the past proving this surface suits him.

Either way you spin it,chances are good Nadal will always face a tough draw at AO and USO because there are plenty of guys who can hurt him on HC(unlike on grass and of course clay).

Davydenko is more likely to choke in big occasions, the majority of Djokovic's wins against Nadal on HC's have come on faster surfaces.
 
But being able to 'hurt' Nadal is really only as effective as losing in straight sets to him. That is, what are the chances of beating Nadal in a 5th set? 'Hurting' him isn't good enough. Either thrash him or don't win at all. You have to get on top early, because I believe he has never lost a grand slam match after winning the first set (either that or he has only ever lost one match after winning the 1st set, I forget which it is).

I don't give Murray a chance of beating Nadal at all. Del Potro if over his injury and if confident on this surface (which he wasn't last year) is the only player in this half that could take a set from Nadal.

The Final will likely be vs Federer or Davydenko. Nadal would prefer Federer no doubt, but there are major signs he isn't far from overcoming Davydenko (and Nadal tends to work out his rivals always, has now won 3 straight v Tsonga on hardcourts, same with Blake, both of whom killed him repeatedly to begin with), plus Davy has stamina issues in slams.
 
While you go the hyperbole route, remember Del Potro's victory over Federer came in a slam.

So did Novak,in fact he beat Fed at AO and in stragihts no less(while Delpo beat him at USO where Fed was serving for a 2-0 set lead).

Delpo also took Roger to 5 in the F.O and would have won it had his legs not given way.

Really? And you know that for a fact? Well I hate to break it to you but even if that's true fitness is a big,big part of claycourt tennis so saying xy player would have won if he had been fitter doesn't say much really.It's similar to saying xy player would have done better at Wimbledon if he had a big serve or something.

Davydenko hasn't done anything notable in five set matches. I'm sure he himself wouldn't believe that he can take 3 sets off Federer in a match even if the Swiss had a broken leg.

So yes Delpo is a bigger opponent than Davydenko. In fact other than Nadal, Delpo is the ONLY other player Fed would LEAST like to face. No wonder he's ecstatic to see him in the other half.

So you're a mind reader as well,oh my,the vast array of different skills Nadal fanboys posses,quite amazing.

The final appearance is more or less booked.

Final appereance in slams has been more or less always booked for Fed ever since 2004 which speaks volumes of his tennis ability and smart scheduling,or did he have an easy draw in every slam since 2004? It seems some Nadal/Sampras fanboys would have us believe as such,I don't buy it myself though.
 
Davydenko is more likely to choke in big occasions, the majority of Djokovic's wins against Nadal on HC's have come on faster surfaces.

I'll try this again:

-Nadal is Kolja's biatch on HC
-Kolja won 2 tourneys in a row on HC beating the likes of Fed(twice),Nadal and Delpo so he's best inform player on HC at the moment,not an easy draw for anyone(especially Nadal for the reason stated above).

As for Novak his first big win over Nadal came on the slowest HC on tour-Maimi when he thumped Rafa in straights and as I said before unlike Delpo and Murray the guy actually won the AO while those guys never got past quarters yet so he is by FAR more proven player at AO.
 
Another lovefest with Djokovic!!!

LOLOLOLOL

How is stating facts about Novak a lovefest?

-Novak has a winning record over Nadal on HC(7-2).

-Has won AO unlike Murray and Delpo who have never ventured past QF at AO so far.

-Has beaten Fed at AO in straights(unlike Delpo who needed a five setter beat Fed in a slam and on a different HC)

If any of the above are wrong feel free to point it out and correct me.
 
This was the point I was trying to make yesterday. Any draw for federer will seem like cakewalk on any surface since there are very few who have beat him in slam. Federer fairs alot better against most of the players who are bad match ups for nadal. The only way people will say that Federer has a tough draw is if somehow he played Davydenko, Del potro, Murray, Nadal and Djokovic in one tournament.

That was the point I always tried to make but still we have the same tune here whenever another slam/masters rolls around-Fed has an easy draw! Rafa has it super tough! It's a conspiracy against Rafa! Whaaaa!
 
I'll try this again:

-Nadal is Kolja's biatch on HC
-Kolja won 2 tourneys in a row on HC beating the likes of Fed(twice),Nadal and Delpo so he's best inform player on HC at the moment,not an easy draw for anyone(especially Nadal for the reason stated above).

As for Novak his first big win over Nadal came on the slowest HC on tour-Maimi when he thumped Rafa in straights and as I said before unlike Delpo and Murray the guy actually won the AO while those guys never got past quarters yet so he is by FAR more proven player at AO.

Yes and i am trying to tell you that Davydenko will freeze when things get tight, unless he plays out of his mind and his matches with the top 4 guys are thrashings.
 
Yes and i am trying to tell you that Davydenko will freeze when things get tight, unless he plays out of his mind and his matches with the top 4 guys are thrashings.
He will freeze just like when people were saying Del Potro would freeze up against Federer in the FO semi's after Federer humiliated him last year at AO.

Right.......ya :roll:
 
Back
Top