The OFFICIAL 2010 Australian Open Men's Draw Discussion Thread

chanee

Banned
As for Novak his first big win over Nadal came on the slowest HC on tour-Maimi when he thumped Rafa in straights and as I said before unlike Delpo and Murray the guy actually won the AO while those guys never got past quarters yet so he is by FAR more proven player at AO.

Miami is not the slowest HC on tour. That is simply fabricated garbage. Shanghai and the WTF are slower. And how can you use a result from almost 3 years ago when Nadal was nowhere near the HC player he is now? By your logic, Djokovic has more of a chance to win the AO because he "won it in the past". That's not good reasoning. Del Potro is more of threat there based on RECENT performances. And also the fact that Djokovic got ousted recently by a player far below that of Del Potro and Murray.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal is thrill for not having Davy in his bottom half. He would rather take his chance of having BOTH Murray and DP in his draw than just Davy alone.
 
N

nikdom

Guest
Davydenko is in form. Unless it gets really hot and Davy gets nervous, he's got a chance against Roger. Always had. Remember FO 2008 Semis (or was it 2007)? Davy lost his nerve but he did have Roger on the ropes.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
Davydenko is in form. Unless it gets really hot and Davy gets nervous, he's got a chance against Roger. Always had. Remember FO 2008 Semis (or was it 2007)? Davy lost his nerve but he did have Roger on the ropes.

It was 2007.

He did well against Roger at the AO 2006 too, taking him to 4 tough sets.

Roger is at risk of losing to Davy MORE than Rafa losing to Murray/DP combined! His draw is ten times more tougher than Rafa.
 
N

nikdom

Guest
It was 2007.

He did well against Roger at the AO 2006 too, taking him to 4 tough sets.

Roger is at risk of losing to Davy MORE than Rafa losing to Murray/DP combined! His draw is ten times more tougher than Rafa.

Yep there you go. Yeah, Roger definitely has a tougher path to the finals. Personally, I'm keeping my expectations of him low. Even week 1 is no longer as simple as it used to be (and for seed 1 no less!)
 

All-rounder

Legend
It was 2007.

He did well against Roger at the AO 2006 too, taking him to 4 tough sets.

Roger is at risk of losing to Davy MORE than Rafa losing to Murray/DP combined! His draw is ten times more tougher than Rafa.
I remember he was up a break in the second set and was close to serving for a 2-0 lead.
 
screenshot20100115at520.png
Come on, Davy! (obviously an old pic, he has hair)
 

Halba

Hall of Fame
Davydenko is in form. Unless it gets really hot and Davy gets nervous, he's got a chance against Roger. Always had. Remember FO 2008 Semis (or was it 2007)? Davy lost his nerve but he did have Roger on the ropes.

he was leading and had chances to win all three sets
 
Federer could be in trouble...

Andreev in round 1, Ignacio Chela in round 2, Hewitt in round 4, Davydenko in QF...

The SF has to come to an end sometime, though I hope it's not here. I really want Federer to win 1-2 more Australian Opens.
 
Federer could be in trouble...

Andreev in round 1, Ignacio Chela in round 2, Hewitt in round 4, Davydenko in QF...

The SF has to come to an end sometime, though I hope it's not here. I really want Federer to win 1-2 more Australian Opens.

Chela's not a threat...Hewitt ran over him last time he played a big player... otherwise, agreed.
 

Rippy

Hall of Fame
Yes... TW works weird. Another example? Sure.

Federer won the first 7 matches against Del Potro, but lost the last two, therefore Del Potro owns him and is a murderous draw.
Federer won the first 12 matches against Davydenko, but lost the last two, therefore Davydenko is a clown, a Federer fanboy and a ridiculously easy draw.

People will always complain about Federer's draw, no matter what it is.
 

brenocon13

New User
JMDP is mentally strong, Davydenko is a small minded weak player.

How is a 5 time top 10 player weak minded? If anything he is strong minded. The guy is 5'10 with absolutely no weapon yet he has 3 Masters, 1 year end, and 20 titles. give davydenko roddick's serve or feds forhand and the guy has 5-7 grand slams.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
You need to understand, every GS is different. Environmental conditions, ball bounce, speed of court etc. Just because a player has been doing well during the season fall tournaments, does not make him a favourite going into the Australian Open. Prime example, Murray made the final of the USO in 2008 and got ousted in the 4th round of the Australian Open 09. Del Potro has vastly improved his consistency in slams, but is still not on the same echelon as Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Also there is a question mark over Del Potros fitness over 5 sets in such humid conditions in Australia.

Furthermore, not sure how you can call Miami (relatively slow/medium paced outdoor hc) faster than the indoor world tour final.

Why is Djokovic being placed in the company of Federer and Nadal?
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Miami is not the slowest HC on tour. That is simply fabricated garbage. Shanghai and the WTF are slower. And how can you use a result from almost 3 years ago when Nadal was nowhere near the HC player he is now? By your logic, Djokovic has more of a chance to win the AO because he "won it in the past". That's not good reasoning. Del Potro is more of threat there based on RECENT performances. And also the fact that Djokovic got ousted recently by a player far below that of Del Potro and Murray.

-Miami is one of if not the slowest HC on tour,that's a well known fact.

-I used a result from 3 years because the poster I responded to implied that Djokovic mostly beats Nadal on fast HC while the fact remains that Novak's very first win over Nadal came on slow HC(Miami).

-AO and USO are not the same,speed,bounce,weather conditions etc. are all different and yes the fact that Novak is a former AO champion does matter since he has proven he can win this tourney unlike Murray and Delpo who have yet to get past quarters.

-Djokovic got ousted in a an exhibition while Delpo withdrew with a wrist injury so there's a question mark to how healthy he will be at AO and Murray lost to Robredo of all people.Overall I wouldn't draw much conclusions from warm ups and exos.
 

NamRanger

G.O.A.T.
Why is Djokovic being placed in the company of Federer and Nadal?


I dunno, maybe it's the fact that he has performed consistently since 2007 year in and year out at every tournament, managing to actually beat Federer and Nadal in many of those tournaments (Cincinnati, Miami, Australian Open, Canada, etc.)




He is a slam champion, multiple masters champion, and multiple semi-finalist at other slams. He may not be in the same "echelon" but he's not very far behind.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Yes and i am trying to tell you that Davydenko will freeze when things get tight, unless he plays out of his mind and his matches with the top 4 guys are thrashings.

Whatever,the fact remains that Kolja is the best inform player on HC right now and it's not like Murray has loads of big wins in slams either(he has one big win over Nadal on his worst slam by far).I sincerely doubt Nadal would rather face Murray in quarters over Kolja(who is riding on a streak of wins over Nadal on HC).

Also don't compare Kolja to Delpo cause Delpo is a potential SF opponent so he should be compared to Novak.
 

NamRanger

G.O.A.T.
Whatever,the fact remains that Kolja is the best inform player on HC right now and it's not like Murray has loads of big wins in slams either(he has one big win over Nadal on his worst slam by far).I sincerely doubt Nadal would rather face Murray in quarters over Kolja(who is riding on a streak of wins over Nadal on HC).

Also don't compare Kolja to Delpo cause Delpo is a potential SF opponent so he should be compared to Novak.



Kolja also nearly crapped on Federer had he not choked here in the QFs in 2006. He had Federer in huge trouble in both the 2nd and 3rd sets.
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
I dunno, maybe it's the fact that he has performed consistently since 2007 year in and year out at every tournament, managing to actually beat Federer and Nadal in many of those tournaments (Cincinnati, Miami, Australian Open, Canada, etc.)




He is a slam champion, multiple masters champion, and multiple semi-finalist at other slams. He may not be in the same "echelon" but he's not very far behind.

This couldn't possibly be the reason that Djokovic is being considered alongside Federer and Nadal. Please don't be so ridiculous... :):):)
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Kolja also nearly crapped on Federer had he not choked here in the QFs in 2006. He had Federer in huge trouble in both the 2nd and 3rd sets.

Yeah,I remember that match,was very tight.Kolja always had the game to trouble Fed,lately he seems to have the mind as well and is serving well consistently,I actually believe he has a legit shot at AO this year.
 

jimbo333

Hall of Fame
Just realised Davy will have to play Verdasco, just before Federer, this is not good:(

Davy has the hardest draw of any of the top 8 in this tournament!
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
I dunno, maybe it's the fact that he has performed consistently since 2007 year in and year out at every tournament, managing to actually beat Federer and Nadal in many of those tournaments (Cincinnati, Miami, Australian Open, Canada, etc.)




He is a slam champion, multiple masters champion, and multiple semi-finalist at other slams. He may not be in the same "echelon" but he's not very far behind.

Murray has done most of those things too and has been more successful recently. Are you saying that a slam Djokovic won 2 years ago is relevant to current form? Based on current form, Djokovic deserves to be placed alongside Murray and Del Potro.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
This couldn't possibly be the reason that Djokovic is being considered alongside Federer and Nadal. Please don't be so ridiculous... :):):)

Del Potro has a slam too. In terms of titles, Del Potro and Murray have had more success recently. Winning a slam 2 years ago is great for the history books when your career is over. It has precisely zero relevance to current form, however.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
I was referring more to HC performances in slams.

I'd put Del Potro ahead of Djokovic based on recent form. Both Djokovic and Murray have been inconsistent in slams recently. DP won the last HC major, though. Djokovic would be the last one out of those three that I would put alongside Federer and Nadal, at least in terms of recent achievements. That's just my opinion, though. Apologies if my reply seemed snappy.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
this explains why he's no 5 while djokovic is no 3 ???

No. The fact that Murray lost a lot of ranking points through injury after the USO is why. Besides, I wasn't referring to consistency. I was referring to what they have won over the past 12 months.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
No. The fact that Murray lost a lot of ranking points through injury after the USO is why. Besides, I wasn't referring to consistency. I was referring to what they have won over the past 12 months.

and novak performed well after the USO ....

don't see too much of a difference considering recent form, but the fact that novak has won the AO, while murray hasn't been past the 4th round and del potro hasn't been past the quarters automatically puts him above those 2

and if we're talking based purely on form, kolya should be the favourite
 
Last edited:

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
and novak performed well after the USO ....

don't see too much of a difference considering recent form, but the fact that novak has won the AO, while murray hasn't been past the 4th round and del potro hasn't been past the quarters automatically puts him above those 2

That was 2 years ago. It has nothing to do with current form.
 

malakas

Banned
What injury did he withdraw with?

he's had problems with his knee I believe,for some time now-but he thought of trying in AO.Good thing he finally decided against it-to rest it and let time to heal.

So now Ferrer has replaced Simon.Any other changes?Who has replaced Ferrer?A LL?
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
and novak performed well after the USO ....

don't see too much of a difference considering recent form, but the fact that novak has won the AO, while murray hasn't been past the 4th round and del potro hasn't been past the quarters automatically puts him above those 2

and if we're talking based purely on form, kolya should be the favourite

I agree.

He wasn't mentioned in the post I was responding to, though. My point was that Djokovic shouldn't be grouped with Federer and Nadal. He belongs in the tier with Murray and Del Potro.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
he's had problems with his knee I believe,for some time now-but he thought of trying in AO.Good thing he finally decided against it-to rest it and let time to heal.

So now Ferrer has replaced Simon.Any other changes?Who has replaced Ferrer?A LL?

Isner replaces Ferrer to potentially meet Murray in the 4th round.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
The playing surface is the same so he has experience. How can you possible deny that factor?

And Tsonga blew just about everyone away on that surface in 2008. That doesn't mean he is remotely likely to do that again this year. It's a slow/mid speed hardcourt. It's an excellent surface for Nole, Murray, and Del Potro.
 

Chelsea_Kiwi

Hall of Fame
There is a difference between winning on a surface and only making a QF/4th round. Novak is definatly ahead of them but behind Fed and Nadal. He has also been in form the last 2-3 months whereas Murray hasn't. DelPo I don't think will deliver on this surface.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
There is a difference between winning on a surface and only making a QF/4th round. Novak is definatly ahead of them but behind Fed and Nadal. He has also been in form the last 2-3 months whereas Murray hasn't. DelPo I don't think will deliver on this surface.

Tsonga made the final, not the quarters. This surface suits him as much as it suits Djokovic. However, current form doesn't suggest that he's going to repeat his 2008 run. The AO surface isn't unique. It's similar to IW and Miami, both of which Murray has had a lot of success on.

I care about current form, not what happened 2 years ago. Djokovic isn't playing as well now as he was then.
 

Chelsea_Kiwi

Hall of Fame
Current form didn't suggest Tsonga was going to make the 2008 final. Current form didn't suggest Soderling was going to defeat Nadal and make the FO 2009 final. Current form didn't make Roddick a favourite to make the final of Wimbledon Current form didn't suggest Del Potro would win the US Open. There goes all your current form nonsense.
 

Clydey2times

Hall of Fame
Current form didn't suggest Tsonga was going to make the 2008 final. Current form didn't suggest Soderling was going to defeat Nadal and make the FO 2009 final. Current form didn't make Roddick a favourite to make the final of Wimbledon Current form didn't suggest Del Potro would win the US Open. There goes all your current form nonsense.

You're missing the point. I'm not saying that Djokovic won't win the AO. I'm saying that based on current form, you can't group him with Federer and Nadal. Tsonga and Soderling weren't considered favourites for obvious reasons. Not being considered a favourite doesn't mean a player can't win the tournament. We're talking about probabilities. I'm not rubbishing the suggestion that Djokovic can win the AO. Of course he can. However, he's no more a favourite than Del Potro, Davydenko, and Murray.
 

bolo

G.O.A.T.
A nice little break for nadal to avoid isner. Unlikely that karlovic wins 3 GS matches in which case nadal's draw looks clear until the meeting with murray.
 
Top