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The problem with Roger Federer G.O.A.T. claims: Nadal and Djokovic rivalries
By Tim Elbra
So ends another season in which we were graced by the tennis genius of Roger Federer.
The Swiss maestro, 37, fell just short of adding his 100th career title when he lost in the semis of the ATP Finals to Alexander Zverev.
Yet he finished 2018 with another Grand Slam: his sixth Australian Open title, Slam No.20. That’s three in the past two years, having won the Aus Open and Wimbledon in 2017 to end a four-year Slam drought.
He also returned to world No.1 this year, setting records for being the oldest player to do so (36 years, 195 days); the longest gap between stints at No.1 (five years, 106 days); the longest gap since first becoming No.1 (14 years, 17 days); and extending his record of weeks spent at No.1 to 310.
His record of 20 Slams remains his crowning glory; the thing always pointed to when he is named as the greatest male tennis player of all time. He may yet overtake Jimmy Connors’ record of career singles titles (109).
He is still in extraordinary form when the logic of mere mortals says he should be retired. But another year closer to the end, there remains one problem his legacy.
How can a man be the greatest of all time when, arguably, he is only the third-best player of his generation?
The two men with legitimate arguments as his superiors are, of course, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Interestingly, Djokovic referred to Federer as “arguably the best player ever” during this year’s ATP Finals. Nadal has always insisted that Federer is the greatest.
Yet head-to-head with the Swiss, both men have proven themselves better than Federer; as the stats clearly show.
Roger Federer at the 2018 ATP Finals. (AP)
Federer has a 6-9 record against current world No.1 Djokovic in Grand Slams (40 per cent win rate) and has beaten the Serb just once in four Slam finals (25 per cent win rate). Federer trails Djokovic 22-25 in their career head-to-head (46.8 per cent win rate); trails 9-11 in Masters 1000 matches (45 per cent win rate); and trails 6-13 in all finals matches (31.6 per cent win rate).
Against his great rival Nadal, Federer fares worse on some counts.
The Swiss has a 3-9 record against the Spaniard in Grand Slams (25 per cent win rate) and a 3-6 record in Slam finals (33.3 per cent win rate). Federer trails Nadal 15-23 in career head-to-head (39.4 per cent win rate); trails 6-11 in Masters 1000 matches (35.3 per cent win rate); and trails 10-14 in all finals matches (41.7 per cent win rate).
Moving beyond head-to-head, Nadal also has a superior win rate across all Grand Slam finals to Federer; largely thanks, of course, to his absurd tally of 11 French Open titles. Nadal has a 17-7 record in Slam finals (70.8 per cent win rate), against Federer’s 20-10 (66.7 per cent win rate), and Djokovic’s 14-9 (60.9 per cent win rate).
It remains to be seen if Nadal, 32, or Djokovic, 31, are capable of overhauling Federer’s Slams tally. It could be argued, given they have existed entirely within the Federer era, that they have had to work harder for their Slams. Federer had won seven Slams before he met either man in a Slam final, with his first encounter a loss to Nadal at Roland Garros in 2006; which he responded to by beating his rival in that year’s Wimbledon final.
Roger Federer's first Grand Slam final win: Wimbledon 2003, over Aussie Mark Philippoussis. (AAP)
Make of these lists what you will.
PLAYERS FACED IN GRAND SLAM FINALS
Federer W: Mark Philippoussis, Marat Safin, Andy Roddick (4), Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi, Marcos Baghdatis, Rafael Nadal (3), Fernando Gonzalez, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray (3), Robin Soderling, Marin Cilic (2).
Federer L: Rafael Nadal (6), Juan Martin del Potro, Novak Djokovic (3).
Nadal W: Mariano Puerta, Roger Federer (6), Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, Novak Djokovic (4), David Ferrer, Stan Wawrinka, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem.
Nadal L: Roger Federer (3), Novak Djokovic (3), Stan Wawrinka.
Djokovic W: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Murray (5), Rafael Nadal (3), Roger Federer (3), Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin del Potro.
Djokovic L: Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal (4), Andy Murray (2), Stan Wawrinka (2).
Novak Djokovic took consecutive Wimbledon finals from Roger Federer in 2014-15. (AAP)
There have been periods in which Nadal and Djokovic have clearly had Federer’s measure.
In 2008-09, Nadal beat Federer in the French Open, Wimbledon and Australian Open finals, and all were significant victories. He trounced Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0 at Roland Garros, a beating so bad that it affected Federer mentally against Nadal for years; he won an epic All England Club final 9-7 in the fifth set on Federer’s preferred surface; then he bounced back from a tournament record five-hour, 14-minutes long semi-final against Fernando Verdasco to beat Federer in five sets at Melbourne Park, leaving his rival crying on the presentation stage. Federer, at least, won the 2008 US Open amid the wreckage.
The 2008 French Open final, a humiliation inside two hours, was a true turning point in Nadal vs Federer.
Before that match, Federer was 6-9 (40 per cent) versus Nadal, 2-3 (40 per cent) in Grand Slams and 2-2 (50 per cent) in Grand Slam finals. He played out the French-Wimbledon final double in the two previous years (2006-07) against Nadal with no ill-effect, winning at the All England Club after a pair of solid-four-set losses at Roland Garros.
Starting with his loss in that year’s Wimbledon final, Federer’s record against Nadal after Roland Garros ‘08 was terrible. Before the 2017 Australian Open final, when he beat Nadal in a Grand Slam final for the first time in nearly a decade and also ended a six-year run with no Slam titles, it read 4-12 (25 per cent), 0-5 in Slams and 0-3 in Slam finals.
Djokovic, though is the only player to beat Federer in three consecutive Grand Slam final appearances, winning Wimbledon 2014-15 and the 2015 US Open. Unlike Nadal, he has caught Federer in his later years and past his true prime, majestic though he remains.
Federer’s extraordinary consistency and longevity are his trademarks, along with that divine one-handed backhand. He has played 43 Grand Slams semis, contesting a record 23 in a row from 2004-2010. He will finish this year as world No.3, the 14th time he’s been ranked inside the top three at years’ end. He even began this season with a career-best start, an inspired 17-0 run before losing in the BNP Paribas Open final.
Roger Federer hadn't beaten Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam for a decade until the 2017 Australian Open. (AAP)
In wonderful news for Aussie fans, he has confirmed (not that there was any doubt) that he will be back at Melbourne Park next year to defend his Australian Open title.
“[Pete] Sampras once upon a time said, ‘If you win a Slam, it's a good season’,” Federer said after his ATP Finals exit, which put his season record at 48-10.
“So [my season] started great. I played super well in Australia again. So obviously I can't wait to go back there in a couple of months.
“The second half of the season could have been better maybe. I also have high hopes to always do well. So I'm happy I gave myself opportunities again in that second half of the season. I maybe lost a couple of too-close matches that could have changed things around for me a little bit.
“Five years ago, where was I? I was probably fighting with back pain in '13, not sure if I was ever going to figure that back pain out again because I had it for almost probably four or five months of the season. It really rocked my tennis for a bit.
“Here I am having actually a pretty good season physically, as well, won another Slam, got back to World No.1. So yes, you can see it as a very, very positive season. That's probably how I will look back on it as well.”
However long Federer plays, he won’t square his ledger with Nadal and Djokovic. He didn’t play Nadal at all this season and lost both matches he played against Djokovic.
With 99 career titles, he leads both men comfortable on that score; Nadal has 80, Djokovic 72. And who knows – perhaps he will add to his record Grand Slam tally, pushing it farther from the reach of his rivals.
Though one thing is clear: if he meets Nadal or Djokovic in a Grand Slam final, the man referred to as the Greatest Of All Time is actually the underdog. The best we’ve ever seen … yet at the same time, third on the podium in this incredible era for men’s tennis.
By Tim Elbra
So ends another season in which we were graced by the tennis genius of Roger Federer.
The Swiss maestro, 37, fell just short of adding his 100th career title when he lost in the semis of the ATP Finals to Alexander Zverev.
Yet he finished 2018 with another Grand Slam: his sixth Australian Open title, Slam No.20. That’s three in the past two years, having won the Aus Open and Wimbledon in 2017 to end a four-year Slam drought.
He also returned to world No.1 this year, setting records for being the oldest player to do so (36 years, 195 days); the longest gap between stints at No.1 (five years, 106 days); the longest gap since first becoming No.1 (14 years, 17 days); and extending his record of weeks spent at No.1 to 310.
His record of 20 Slams remains his crowning glory; the thing always pointed to when he is named as the greatest male tennis player of all time. He may yet overtake Jimmy Connors’ record of career singles titles (109).
He is still in extraordinary form when the logic of mere mortals says he should be retired. But another year closer to the end, there remains one problem his legacy.
How can a man be the greatest of all time when, arguably, he is only the third-best player of his generation?
The two men with legitimate arguments as his superiors are, of course, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Interestingly, Djokovic referred to Federer as “arguably the best player ever” during this year’s ATP Finals. Nadal has always insisted that Federer is the greatest.
Yet head-to-head with the Swiss, both men have proven themselves better than Federer; as the stats clearly show.
Roger Federer at the 2018 ATP Finals. (AP)
Federer has a 6-9 record against current world No.1 Djokovic in Grand Slams (40 per cent win rate) and has beaten the Serb just once in four Slam finals (25 per cent win rate). Federer trails Djokovic 22-25 in their career head-to-head (46.8 per cent win rate); trails 9-11 in Masters 1000 matches (45 per cent win rate); and trails 6-13 in all finals matches (31.6 per cent win rate).
Against his great rival Nadal, Federer fares worse on some counts.
The Swiss has a 3-9 record against the Spaniard in Grand Slams (25 per cent win rate) and a 3-6 record in Slam finals (33.3 per cent win rate). Federer trails Nadal 15-23 in career head-to-head (39.4 per cent win rate); trails 6-11 in Masters 1000 matches (35.3 per cent win rate); and trails 10-14 in all finals matches (41.7 per cent win rate).
Moving beyond head-to-head, Nadal also has a superior win rate across all Grand Slam finals to Federer; largely thanks, of course, to his absurd tally of 11 French Open titles. Nadal has a 17-7 record in Slam finals (70.8 per cent win rate), against Federer’s 20-10 (66.7 per cent win rate), and Djokovic’s 14-9 (60.9 per cent win rate).
It remains to be seen if Nadal, 32, or Djokovic, 31, are capable of overhauling Federer’s Slams tally. It could be argued, given they have existed entirely within the Federer era, that they have had to work harder for their Slams. Federer had won seven Slams before he met either man in a Slam final, with his first encounter a loss to Nadal at Roland Garros in 2006; which he responded to by beating his rival in that year’s Wimbledon final.
Roger Federer's first Grand Slam final win: Wimbledon 2003, over Aussie Mark Philippoussis. (AAP)
Make of these lists what you will.
PLAYERS FACED IN GRAND SLAM FINALS
Federer W: Mark Philippoussis, Marat Safin, Andy Roddick (4), Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi, Marcos Baghdatis, Rafael Nadal (3), Fernando Gonzalez, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray (3), Robin Soderling, Marin Cilic (2).
Federer L: Rafael Nadal (6), Juan Martin del Potro, Novak Djokovic (3).
Nadal W: Mariano Puerta, Roger Federer (6), Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, Novak Djokovic (4), David Ferrer, Stan Wawrinka, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem.
Nadal L: Roger Federer (3), Novak Djokovic (3), Stan Wawrinka.
Djokovic W: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Murray (5), Rafael Nadal (3), Roger Federer (3), Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin del Potro.
Djokovic L: Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal (4), Andy Murray (2), Stan Wawrinka (2).
Novak Djokovic took consecutive Wimbledon finals from Roger Federer in 2014-15. (AAP)
There have been periods in which Nadal and Djokovic have clearly had Federer’s measure.
In 2008-09, Nadal beat Federer in the French Open, Wimbledon and Australian Open finals, and all were significant victories. He trounced Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0 at Roland Garros, a beating so bad that it affected Federer mentally against Nadal for years; he won an epic All England Club final 9-7 in the fifth set on Federer’s preferred surface; then he bounced back from a tournament record five-hour, 14-minutes long semi-final against Fernando Verdasco to beat Federer in five sets at Melbourne Park, leaving his rival crying on the presentation stage. Federer, at least, won the 2008 US Open amid the wreckage.
The 2008 French Open final, a humiliation inside two hours, was a true turning point in Nadal vs Federer.
Before that match, Federer was 6-9 (40 per cent) versus Nadal, 2-3 (40 per cent) in Grand Slams and 2-2 (50 per cent) in Grand Slam finals. He played out the French-Wimbledon final double in the two previous years (2006-07) against Nadal with no ill-effect, winning at the All England Club after a pair of solid-four-set losses at Roland Garros.
Starting with his loss in that year’s Wimbledon final, Federer’s record against Nadal after Roland Garros ‘08 was terrible. Before the 2017 Australian Open final, when he beat Nadal in a Grand Slam final for the first time in nearly a decade and also ended a six-year run with no Slam titles, it read 4-12 (25 per cent), 0-5 in Slams and 0-3 in Slam finals.
Djokovic, though is the only player to beat Federer in three consecutive Grand Slam final appearances, winning Wimbledon 2014-15 and the 2015 US Open. Unlike Nadal, he has caught Federer in his later years and past his true prime, majestic though he remains.
Federer’s extraordinary consistency and longevity are his trademarks, along with that divine one-handed backhand. He has played 43 Grand Slams semis, contesting a record 23 in a row from 2004-2010. He will finish this year as world No.3, the 14th time he’s been ranked inside the top three at years’ end. He even began this season with a career-best start, an inspired 17-0 run before losing in the BNP Paribas Open final.
Roger Federer hadn't beaten Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam for a decade until the 2017 Australian Open. (AAP)
In wonderful news for Aussie fans, he has confirmed (not that there was any doubt) that he will be back at Melbourne Park next year to defend his Australian Open title.
“[Pete] Sampras once upon a time said, ‘If you win a Slam, it's a good season’,” Federer said after his ATP Finals exit, which put his season record at 48-10.
“So [my season] started great. I played super well in Australia again. So obviously I can't wait to go back there in a couple of months.
“The second half of the season could have been better maybe. I also have high hopes to always do well. So I'm happy I gave myself opportunities again in that second half of the season. I maybe lost a couple of too-close matches that could have changed things around for me a little bit.
“Five years ago, where was I? I was probably fighting with back pain in '13, not sure if I was ever going to figure that back pain out again because I had it for almost probably four or five months of the season. It really rocked my tennis for a bit.
“Here I am having actually a pretty good season physically, as well, won another Slam, got back to World No.1. So yes, you can see it as a very, very positive season. That's probably how I will look back on it as well.”
However long Federer plays, he won’t square his ledger with Nadal and Djokovic. He didn’t play Nadal at all this season and lost both matches he played against Djokovic.
With 99 career titles, he leads both men comfortable on that score; Nadal has 80, Djokovic 72. And who knows – perhaps he will add to his record Grand Slam tally, pushing it farther from the reach of his rivals.
Though one thing is clear: if he meets Nadal or Djokovic in a Grand Slam final, the man referred to as the Greatest Of All Time is actually the underdog. The best we’ve ever seen … yet at the same time, third on the podium in this incredible era for men’s tennis.
