The race for ATP world #1 in 2017

[uscwang]

Can Novak get back to #1? Who will be the year end #1?
ATP pts on 1/9/2017: Murray 12560 / Djokovic 11780
In the first 5 months, Novak has 7700 pts to defend vs. Murray's 4450. Key for Novak is to get deep in every tournaments and stay close with Murray in points (<2000 deficit).
After that, Murray has 7960 pts to defend vs. Novak's 3830. Novak will likely have his first chance at WB, and second chance in Oct.
Expect a close race.

Points to defend Murray / Djokovic:
Jan
AO: 1200 / 2000 (If Novak wins and Murray loses before SF, Novak gets #1 back.)
Feb
Dubai: 0 / 90 (-90)
Mar (90 vs. 2000)
IW: 45 / 1000
Miami: 45 / 1000
Apr
MC: 360 / 10
May (2800 vs. 3600, tough job for both)
Madird: 600 / 1000
Rome: 1000 / 600
RG: 1200 / 2000 (Likely a tie in May.)
Jun (2500 vs. 90)
Queen's: 500 / 0
WB: 2000 / 90 (Novak has a real chance of getting #1 back here.)
Aug
Canada: 0 / 1000
Cincy: 600 / 0 (Likely a tie in Aug.)
Sep
USO: 360 / 1200 (Murray could gain ground here.)
Oct (3000 vs. 540)
Beijing: 500 / 0
Shanghai: 1000 / 360
Viena: 500 / 0
Paris: 1000 / 180
Nov
WTF: 1500 / 1000

 

[AngryBirds]

Murray has almost nothing to defend after AO up until clay court season. Novak's best chance to take back #1 is at AO. If he can't do that, Murray will be #1 for many months to come.

 

[Dave1982]

Bit had to say who will finish year at #1 after each has only played 1 tournament...which was worth minimal points.

No doubt each will have their work cut out for them if they hope to finish this year on similar points to what they did last year but in reality "defending points" is somewhat irrelevant with respect to finishing the year at #1...just need to accumulate more than anyone else over next 50-51 weeks or so.

Personally, if I'm to crystal ball it and assuming all top players remain injury free, I think Djokovic will finish the year at #1 but I don't think he will have it all his own way and I'm thinking we might go to WTF with not necessary many players able to challenge for #1 but certainly the gap between all players much closer than perhaps what we've seen in recent years.

 

[Meles]

Despite the Doha win, doubt Djokovic catches Murray. He's just not the same player as 2015/2016 peak.

 

[TripleATeam]

I don't expect Djokovic to become #1 until June. The only real chance he had was the WTF. That being said, if he doesn't do it there, in my books he will almost certainly do it in October, particularly as the rest of the Big 4 is back, and able to challenge both Murray and Djokovic, but Murray is historically less consistent against them than Djokovic. I see him ending 2017 with #1 locked up before the WTF, or in its round robin phase at worst.