The Race for YE number 1

batz

batz

G.O.A.T.
Do we genuinely have one? Murray is now 815 points behind Novak in the race. Is it really feasible for Murray to get 820 points more than Novak between now and year end? Could there be a shootout in London?

Is it worth noting that Murray has won Cincy (The Real Slam TM ), Canadia and Shanghai on multiple occasions? That said, he's done very little in Paris or at the O2.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles-race-to-london

NB anyone who mentions the word 'points to defend' will get a cyber-slap in the dish and sent to stand in the corner. It doesn't matter who is defending what between now and year end.
 
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Murray has a great chance. This win will give Murray a lot of confidence, and coupled with Lendl back on Murray's team, I can see a legitimate fight for number 1. I still give the edge to Djokovic, but I think Murray will definitely push him.

Honestly, Murray would have to do extremely well before the YEC. He's never really played too well there (never made the final I think), whereas Djokovic loves it there. If he wins the US Open and possibly Shanghai and one of the HC masters, he has a really good chance. Of course, this is assuming that Djokovic continues to play well.
 
I think this was a somewhat similar situation with Nadal in 2013 when he ended up being #1 but I cant remember if he was behind after the clay/grass season or not. But he didnt play AO that year and lost 1R in Wimbledon
 
Depends on the US Open I guess...

I thought Djokovic's record of being the world #2 with most points back in 2013 would stand for a long time. But now, this year's runner-up in the rankings could actually break it.
 
batz said:
Do we genuinely have one? Murray is now 815 points behind Novak in the race. Is it really feasible for Murray to get 820 points more than Novak between now and year end? Could there be a shootout in London?

Is it worth noting that Murray has won Cincy (The Real Slam TM ), Canadia and Shanghai on multiple occasions? That said, he's done very little in Paris or at the O2.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles-race-to-london

NB anyone who mentions the word 'points to defend' will get a cyber-slap in the dish and sent to stand in the corner. It doesn't matter who is defending what between now and year end.
Click to expand...

Murray will need to make inroads indoors for the first time in a while - which is Novak's most prolific period of the year since 2013.

But he's given himself a shot, he needs to have no hangovers in the NA HC swing and he needs to go deep at the USO which he hasn't done in years.
 
Murray is playing nonstop so somewhere down the line he will going to falter, he has achieved nearly the same point by winning one slam and one master where as Nole won 2 slam and 3 masters.
It means he is going deep into every tournament, there will be fatigue as he went into MC semi, Madrid final, Rome winner, Queens winner, Wimbledon winner, now Rogers cup and Olympic medal to defend.
Djokovic tanked MC and lost early in Wimbledon with no warmup matches , so he will fresh in comparison to Murray for hardcourt and indoor season.
I think Murray realistic target should be IW and Miami time.
 
NatF said:
Murray will need to make inroads indoors for the first time in a while - which is Novak's most prolific period of the year since 2013.

But he's given himself a shot, he needs to have no hangovers in the NA HC swing and he needs to go deep at the USO which he hasn't done in years.
Click to expand...

Agreed. New York and the O2 haven't been great places for him - and he probably needs to do really well in them (i.e. at least win one, RU in the other), if he's to have a realistic shot.
 
He has a shot in theory. Obviously, based on recent years of play, you would still have to back Djoko given how's he's cleaned up the post US Open season (and last year, the US as well), where Murray hasn't done much.
But with Lendl back, Wimbledon in his bag and a more aggressive mindset, then who knows if he can start winning more than the very odd match vs. Djoko (and Fed if he gets relevant this fall) now and again.
 
NatF said:
Murray will need to make inroads indoors for the first time in a while - which is Novak's most prolific period of the year since 2013.

But he's given himself a shot, he needs to have no hangovers in the NA HC swing and he needs to go deep at the USO which he hasn't done in years.
Click to expand...
I think in last two years he is targeting clay and grass( including warmup) so he ends up quite tired by the time of Us open and indoor tennis.
 
Navdeep Srivastava said:
I think in last two years he is targeting clay and grass( including warmup) so he ends up quite tired by the time of Us open and indoor tennis.
Click to expand...

I think last year it was the Davis Cup that did him in as well, he expended a lot of energy carrying the team through each tie. But I believe he has said before that going deep on clay in multiple tournaments affects him.
 
Realistically if Novak is ok and Murray is ok, Novak should defend his points easily. If Murray wants to be No1,he needs to replicate Novak's form, that with Novak playing is just not happening.
No wonder Murray has bailed out from DC against Serbia (I might even say I told you so ), he can't have so much matches and chase No1 spot successfully.
 
I have a feeling that guys are going to play Toronto as a tuneup for the Olympics, then kick Cincinnati to the curb. In 2012, Toronto got the short end of it because it was right after the Olympics and players needed rest, so a lot of guys withdrew.
 
Nadal can make things harder for the players to earn points if Dj/Murray get Nadal in their draw- Nadal was playing some of his best ever tennis at Roland Garros 2016 before a wrist got in his way. And since Nadal has had the whole of the grass-court season, as well as the second week of Roland Garros to start training on hard-courts, Nadal will be far more prepared for the upcoming hard-court season and will be ready to sweep the majority of the remaining hard-court events, just like in 2013. So Murray securing the #1 ranking might very well depend on Nadal stomping Dj in semi-finals, over and over again. And Murray has partnered up with Lendl, and Dj is useless against Murray at Wimbledon and the US Open under Lendl's command. It's all looking bad for Dj, and it's looking great for Murray (and Nadal).
 
batz said:
Do we genuinely have one? Murray is now 815 points behind Novak in the race. Is it really feasible for Murray to get 820 points more than Novak between now and year end? Could there be a shootout in London?

Is it worth noting that Murray has won Cincy (The Real Slam TM ), Canadia and Shanghai on multiple occasions? That said, he's done very little in Paris or at the O2.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles-race-to-london

NB anyone who mentions the word 'points to defend' will get a cyber-slap in the dish and sent to stand in the corner. It doesn't matter who is defending what between now and year end.
Click to expand...


Points to defend!!! Pointz two defend!!! Points 2 Murray!!!

Murray is good at defense, it's what he's known for. Will defend points won last year. Will make the semi's of US Open. Will lose to Winikori. Will cry. Will contract mono. Will create scapegoat for loss to Winikori. Will reach #1 on Topspin 4. Bascially, Murray will Murray; Murray will defend. Murray Murray Murray Murray defense defense defense defense.

820 points doesn't even tell how much of a gap there really is between Djoky and defense, Djoko has won AO, IW, Miami, Madrid and FO. Defense has won Wimbledon and Rome. Defense did win Montreal last year, beating Djokovic in the finals.


Could Defense make the #1 ranking with less slams and MS titles (not overall obviously, but this season) than Djokovic? Olympics will be key for Djokovic.
 
The main thing that would give Murray a chance would be Andy taking the U.S. Open and Djokovic suffering another upset loss in the R16 (or QF). Obviously, it's not hugely likely that Djokovic suffers a similar upset loss in New York, but, if he does, there's a pretty decent chance for Murray add another Major to his tally.
 
The Djokovic-Murray matchup is still firmly in Djokovic's control. Yes, Murray won a slam and has Lendl as coach now, but nothing has changed in the matchup yet. Although it would be good to see a change at the top, Djokovic could still dominate the field and Murray the rest of the year.
 
Don't worry Murray fans.. If not Sam Querrey, Steve Johnson, Sock or Young will do the dirty job.

I can already picture Murray with the ATP YEC trophy at London
 
Navdeep Srivastava said:
Murray is playing nonstop so somewhere down the line he will going to falter, he has achieved nearly the same point by winning one slam and one master where as Nole won 2 slam and 3 masters.
It means he is going deep into every tournament, there will be fatigue as he went into MC semi, Madrid final, Rome winner, Queens winner, Wimbledon winner, now Rogers cup and Olympic medal to defend.
Djokovic tanked MC and lost early in Wimbledon with no warmup matches , so he will fresh in comparison to Murray for hardcourt and indoor season.
I think Murray realistic target should be IW and Miami time.
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Not to mention he spends more time on court compared to Djokovic.
 
Djokovic still has a 5,000 point lead in the rankings but anything is possible. I think Murray has a better shot of becoming ITF player of the year if he somehow wins the US Open. Djokovic has a ton of points to defend between now and the end of the year so anything is possible.

P.S. - Djokovic has a 815 point lead in the "race" so far this year. This has nothing to do with the rankings.
Djokovic - 2 Slams, 3 Masters, 1 Masters final
Murray - 1 Slam, 2 Slam finals, 1 Masters, 1 Masters final
 
Got to applaud Murray. This was an excellent response, considering how certain people were criticizing him only two months ago (worst ever #2, easy opponent for Novak...) He was actually more consistent than Djokovic in the clay+grass season. Monte Carlo semi followed by five consecutive final appearances (Madrid, Rome, French Open, Queens, Wimbledon), winning three. I believe today marks the first time Murray passed the 10000 points mark in his career as well.

But from now on it's Djokovic's territory - hard courts. It will take a very high level of play, consistency and effort from Andy to do better than Novak there.

The results that Novak has this year (2 Slams, 3 Masters and final) would usually be enough for the top spot, but now it doesn't look like it. We could be in for a fun race. If Novak holds onto his lead for his 5th YE #1, fantastic! But if Andy pulls it off, then he should be congratulated for such an amazing turnaround.
 
tennisaddict said:
Sampras would like to have at least 1 record for himself - 6 YE #1.

He is running a tennis clinic at LA for the youngsters as we speak.
Click to expand...
Checked on that record, and came across a slightly irrelevant, but nonetheless amazing stat, at least as concerns the Captains. Who's gonna tip it over 1K? ;)

Screenshot_2016_07_11_at_11_11_35_AM.png
 
How does the schedule look? Murray seems to want to play Davis Cup, which makes it all but certain that Djokovic will be YE#1
 
He would need someone to upset Djok at the US Open before round of 16 and Murray to reach the finals or win.
 
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