The Real Reason Djokodal is played a lot more on Clay despite there being less tournaments on tour.

Leandro2045

Leandro2045

Semi-Pro
TLDR : Djokovic inability to make Hard Court Finals & Semis at the same rate Nadal does on Clay Courts.

People claim we see more Djokodal matches on Clay because Novak is "an all court phenom" that adapted to clay while Rafa "struggles on Hard"

I'm here to show you with real facts the real problem.

First their stats on their respective worse surface :

Nadal has reached 48 Hard Court Finals in 155 HC tournaments. (31%)
Nadal has reached 82 Hard Court Semifinals in 155 HC tournaments (53%)

Djokovic has reached 27 Clay Court Finals in 69 tournaments (39%)
Djokovic has reached 40 Clay Court Semifinals in 69 Tournaments (58%)

That's a Final and Semifinal difference of 8% & 5% in favour of Novak on their worse surfaces.

Now, the real problem arrives :

Second their stats on their respective best surface :

Nadal has reached 70 Clay Court Finals in 106 Tournaments (67%)
Nadal has reached 79 Clay Court Finals in 106 Tournaments. (75%)

Djokovic has reached 80 Hard Court Finals in 164 Tournaments (49%)
Djokovic has reached 105 Hard Court Semifinals in 164 Tournaments (64%)

That's a Final and Semifinal difference of 18% & 11% in favour of Nadal on their best surfaces.

Essentially : 18% - 8%, 11% - 5%. Nadal is doing his part in the rivarly, Djokovic is just not doing his job on Hard courts to create more Djokodal HC matches...
 
If your thesis is that Djokovic is not as dominant on all hard courts as Nadal is on clay, you would be correct. I would bet that Djokovic on fast hard courts and grass (AO, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Shanghai, WTF etc.) would have closer numbers for reaching semis/finals. Djokovic is not that much better than Nadal on slow hard courts, but he is much better on fast hard courts and grass. Also as pointed out above, Nadal has always been uninjured for the entirety of every clay season throughout his career while missing many post-USO tournaments in many years.
 
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I think I did the math and Djokovic has made something like 18 M1000 finals on clay including todays, where Rafa was there to meet him 10 times (55%).

Rafa has made 19 M1000 finals on HC, Djokovic has been there in the final only 3 times (15%).

It’s not that Rafa is dodging Novak on HC, Rafa just is always there to defend his turf at a level that no one else can match.
 
Leandro2045 said:
I just took and presented both their entire Hard Court & Clay Court portfolios during their entire career.
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If he missed a lot of the fast/indoor hard court tournaments where he does less well, then his record of making hard court semis/finals gets skewed accordingly. He does well on slow hard courts more than fast/indoor courts and he has missed a high number of them relative to the slow hard/clay tournaments he has missed.
 
topher said:
I think I did the math and Djokovic has made something like 18 M1000 finals on clay including todays, where Rafa was there to meet him 10 times (55%).

Rafa has made 19 M1000 finals on HC, Djokovic has been there in the final only 3 times (15%).

It’s not that Rafa is dodging Novak on HC, Rafa just is always there to defend his turf at a level that no one else can match.
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I agree, you can't solely blame Nadal here.

Actually, we should actually argue the HC h2h would'nt be so much in Nole's favour if Nole showed up more on his beloved HC's.
 
Leandro2045 said:
I just took and presented both their entire Hard Court & Clay Court portfolios during their entire career.
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But if you're not including important context like Rafa's hardcourt schedule selectivity, you're not really interested in identifying the "real reason." You're merely identifying one data point that casts your favorite player in a favorable light.

Anyway, yes, obviously Nadal is better on clay than anybody has ever been on any surface.
 
socallefty said:
If he missed a lot of the fast/indoor hard court tournaments where he does less well, then his record of making hard court semis/finals gets skewed accordingly. He does well on slow hard courts more than fast/indoor courts and he has missed a high number of them relative to the slow hard/clay tournaments he has missed.
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You are talking about minimum and insignificant numbers of withdrawals here.

That's a sample of 155 Hard Court Tournaments for Rafa to Novak's 164 : 94.5%

Novak sample of 69 Clay Court Tournaments to Rafa's 106 tournaments is way less : 65%
 
I can agree with both sides of the argument here: the fact that neither have won a match (and Nadal not even a set) on the other's favored surface since 2016 tells the whole story.
Djokovic is better on HC easily, Nadal better on Clay easily. And I do agree that Djokovic has let HC opportunities slip through his hands a lot more than Nadal has - his 3 USOs are the largest indicator of that for a so-called HC goat.

What the OP does not take into consideration is that like Djokovic, 75-80% of the tour is either at their best or close to best on HC while on clay, very few are comfortable or step up on clay in the 2010s. Ferrer, Thiem, Wawrinka ... the list of challengers to the Big 3 on clay is paltry due to lack of experience and incompatibility with their game. Part of what makes Nadal so good on the surface is that clay is a lower variance match and his incredible speed and precision simply wears opponents down along with the experience gaps on the surface.
Djokovic on the other hand has seen the best from Murray, Federer, Wawrinka, Del Potro, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Berdych, Medvedev, etc. on HC. Obviously Djokovic is still the best, but there's a larger group of competent HC challengers than clay and the overall level of competition is higher. I'd add that it's been proven HC has higher variance than clay due to court speed and serve permutations.
 
Kralingen said:
What the OP does not take into consideration is that like Djokovic, 75-80% of the tour is either at their best or close to best on HC while on clay, very few are comfortable or step up on clay in the 2010s. Ferrer, Thiem, Wawrinka ... the list of challengers to the Big 3 on clay is paltry due to lack of experience and incompatibility with their game. Part of what makes Nadal so good on the surface is that clay is a lower variance match and his incredible speed and precision simply wears opponents down along with the experience gaps on the surface.
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What does it have to do with the OP's point?
 
ADuck said:
What does it have to do with the OP's point?
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Just that IMO the Tour is the thinnest on clay in both talent and entries from big players. Seeing a world #2 who just met Djokovic in a HC Slam Final actively tanking on clay is the perfect example of the weakened competition. Plus it's only late Feb-late May, a quarter of the season - while HC season is ~7-8 months out of the year depending how you count YE. If Nadal is on form for clay he only has to do this for 3 months. a HC centered player has more opportunities but also a longer list to dominate. Winning 3 out of MC, Madrid, Rome, RG (75%) in 2 months is still an unbelievable achievement, but to match that level of dominance Djokovic would have to win 6 of AO, IW, Miami, Toronto, Cincinnati, USO, Shanghai, Paris (75%) and essentially peak twice in the same year after grueling clay and grass seasons while avoiding injuries across a 12 month span.

Nadal builds his season around clay, 80% of the tour builds it around HC season. None of this is his fault, I just think the OP left out context behind statistics.
 
Kralingen said:
Just that IMO the Tour is the thinnest on clay in both talent and entries from big players. Seeing a world #2 who just met Djokovic in a HC Slam Final actively tanking on clay is the perfect example of the weakened competition. Plus it's only late Feb-late May, a quarter of the season - while HC season is ~7-8 months out of the year depending how you count YE. If Nadal is on form for clay he only has to do this for 3 months. a HC centered player has more opportunities but also a longer list to dominate. Winning 3 out of MC, Madrid, Rome, RG (75%) in 2 months is still an unbelievable achievement, but to match that level of dominance Djokovic would have to win 6 of AO, IW, Miami, Toronto, Cincinnati, USO, Shanghai, Paris (75%) and essentially peak twice in the same year after grueling clay and grass seasons while avoiding injuries across a 12 month span.

Nadal builds his season around clay, 80% of the tour builds it around HC season. None of this is his fault, I just think the OP left out context behind statistics.
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I still don't see how this negates OP's point. The competition is there for both players so the differences in percentages is fair to measure regardless
 
How convenient that the OP 'forgot' to mention of this Roger fellow from Switzerland in his entire post?

Anyway, Federer and Djokovic are HC co-GOATS with significant career overlap which means its mathematically impossible for them to dominate HC the way Nadal dominates clay.

All this goes to show is that no one dominated a surface like Nadal - at this point, no one with a couple of grey cells is arguing this.
 
mahesh69a said:
How convenient that the OP 'forgot' to mention of this Roger fellow from Switzerland in his entire post?

Anyway, Federer and Djokovic are HC co-GOATS with significant career overlap which means its mathematically impossible for them to dominate HC the way Nadal dominates clay.

All this goes to show is that no one dominated a surface like Nadal - at this point, no one with a couple of grey cells is arguing this.
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The overlap doesn't come into play when determining the no of sfs reached.... Because of obviously close rankings.... So the op has got a point and you too have made a point here.... The overlap did affect their numbers by reducing their no of finals .... Hey but wait , in that case Rafa had to play 2 hc goats and do double the hard work than Roger r Novak on clay. .
 
No. You must look at the number of times Nadal failed to reach the stage he needed to meet Djokovic on hard/clay and the reverse - let alone accounting for the times that Nadal skipped Canada/Cincinnati/Paris/Shanghai. The following stats will be 2007 onward because prior to that Djokovic wasn't in the top 10 and I can't be bothered to look at another year.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on clay (1000+): RG = 14, MC = 13, Madrid = 10, Rome = 15. All together = 52
Times Nadal made it: RG - 12, MC - 10, Madrid - 6, Rome - 13. 41 in total.
Times Djokovic made it: RG - 8, MC - 4, Madrid - 7, Rome - 13. 32 in total.

Nadal made it for 79% of their projected meetings on clay. Djokovic made 62% of their projected meetings.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on hard (1000+): AO = 14, IW = 12, Miami = 9, Canada = 8, Cincinnati = 7, USO = 10, Shanghai = 8, Paris = 6, WTF = 8 Semifinal+Finals, 3 Group. Total: 85
Times Nadal made it: AO = 5, IW = 7, Miami = 5, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 3, USO = 4, Shanghai = 2, Paris = 2, WTF = 5. Total: 37
Times Djokovic made it: AO = 8, IW = 6, Miami = 7, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 4, USO = 7, Shanghai = 5, Paris = 4, WTF = 4. Total: 49

Nadal made it for 44% of their projected meetings on HC. Djokovic made 58% of their projected meetings.

The relative difference between the amount of times Djokodal have been able to reach each other on both surfaces is 17% on clay, 14% on hard court. The difference is negligible - roughly 2 to 3 matches, but all of them are actually in Djokovic's favor. 14% of 85 is higher than 17% of 52.

The true difference is that Djokovic and Nadal have been projected to meet a whopping 52 times on clay, but 85 times on hard court. Since there are 4 clay tournaments and 9 hard court tournaments, you'd expect that they should have been projected to meet on hard court 2.25x more often than on clay. This hasn't been the case. Clay courts are earlier in the season than the majority of hard courts and this leads to withdrawals, particularly from Nadal.

Nadal has withdrawn from 31 hard court tournaments since 2007, withdrawing from exactly 0 clay court tournaments. Djokovic on the other hand has withdrawn from 11 hard court tournaments since 2007, withdrawing from 5 clay tournaments (EXACTLY what you'd expect if he was withdrawing from random tournaments).

If we add in the rough equivalent of the 30 hard court tournaments Nadal missed (to bring his amount of HC withdrawals to roughly the same as 2.25x his clay court withdrawals), we get around 10 meetings, which would make it so they've met 37 times on hard court, 26 times on clay, and 4 times on grass, which would be 55% HC, 39% clay, 7% grass. This is much closer to the big tournaments (64% HC, 29% clay, 7% grass). Clay would still be overrepresented (due to them both being more consistent on clay than on hard court), but that would be natural.

It's clear - Nadal has historically skipped tournaments that Djokovic tends to end up winning and historically Nadal has been unsuccessful at, in addition to the disadvantage of those tournaments being held late in the season, when Nadal is typically injured. This means that Nadal is withdrawing from tournaments that Djokovic has a much better chance of winning on. Djokovic doesn't do the same on clay.

The surface disparity is mostly due to withdrawals.
 
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topher said:
I think I did the math and Djokovic has made something like 18 M1000 finals on clay including todays, where Rafa was there to meet him 10 times (55%).

Rafa has made 19 M1000 finals on HC, Djokovic has been there in the final only 3 times (15%).

It’s not that Rafa is dodging Novak on HC, Rafa just is always there to defend his turf at a level that no one else can match.
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Conversely, 18 M1000 finals where there are 3 Clay Masters vs. 19 M1000 finals where there are 6 HC Masters.

I am sure if Rafa made 36 HC finals, they would have met a lot more there. Not quite 55% like on clay, since Djoko doesn't make finals at the same rate Rafa does on clay, but somewhere around 35-40%
 
TripleATeam said:
No. You must look at the number of times Nadal failed to reach the stage he needed to meet Djokovic on hard/clay and the reverse - let alone accounting for the times that Nadal skipped Canada/Cincinnati/Paris/Shanghai. The following stats will be 2007 onward because prior to that Djokovic wasn't in the top 10 and I can't be bothered to look at another year.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on clay (1000+): RG = 14, MC = 13, Madrid = 10, Rome = 15. All together = 52
Times Nadal made it: RG - 12, MC - 10, Madrid - 6, Rome - 13. 41 in total.
Times Djokovic made it: RG - 8, MC - 4, Madrid - 7, Rome - 13. 32 in total.

Nadal made it for 79% of their projected meetings on clay. Djokovic made 62% of their projected meetings.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on hard (1000+): AO = 14, IW = 12, Miami = 9, Canada = 8, Cincinnati = 7, USO = 10, Shanghai = 8, Paris = 6, WTF = 8 Semifinal+Finals, 3 Group. Total: 85
Times Nadal made it: AO = 5, IW = 7, Miami = 5, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 3, USO = 4, Shanghai = 2, Paris = 2, WTF = 5. Total: 37
Times Djokovic made it: AO = 8, IW = 6, Miami = 7, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 4, USO = 7, Shanghai = 5, Paris = 4, WTF = 4. Total: 49

Nadal made it for 44% of their projected meetings on HC. Djokovic made 58% of their projected meetings.

The relative difference between the amount of times Djokodal have been able to reach each other on both surfaces is 17% on clay, 14% on hard court. The difference is negligible - roughly 2 to 3 matches, but all of them are actually in Djokovic's favor. 14% of 85 is higher than 17% of 52.

The true difference is that Djokovic and Nadal have been projected to meet a whopping 52 times on clay, but 85 times on hard court. Since there are 4 clay tournaments and 9 hard court tournaments, you'd expect that they should have been projected to meet on hard court 2.25x more often than on clay. This hasn't been the case. Clay courts are earlier in the season than the majority of hard courts and this leads to withdrawals, particularly from Nadal.

Nadal has withdrawn from 31 hard court tournaments since 2007, withdrawing from exactly 0 clay court tournaments. Djokovic on the other hand has withdrawn from 11 hard court tournaments since 2007, withdrawing from 5 clay tournaments (EXACTLY what you'd expect if he was withdrawing from random tournaments).

It's clear - Nadal has historically skipped tournaments that Djokovic tends to end up winning and historically Nadal has been unsuccessful at, in addition to the disadvantage of those tournaments being held late in the season, when Nadal is typically injured. This means that Nadal is withdrawing from tournaments that Djokovic has a much better chance of winning on. Djokovic doesn't do the same on clay.

The surface disparity is mostly due to withdrawals.
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What I got from this is that if Nadal is in the draw, it's less often his fault for not reaching Nole on HC, than it is Nole's fault for not reaching Rafa on clay courts. So the main point that was used against Rafa is still refuted, but you are adding more context by saying Rafa withdrew from more HC tournaments but you didn't update the calculations to include that.

If you're gonna be fair though you're gonna have to include Nadal's 2005 and 2006 then, cause it's not his fault Nole couldn't peak earlier.
 
ADuck said:
What I got from this is that if Nadal is in the draw, it's less often his fault for not reaching Nole on HC, than it is Nole's fault for not reaching Rafa on clay courts. So the main point that was used against Rafa is still refuted, but you are adding more context by saying Rafa withdrew from more HC tournaments but you didn't update the calculations to include that.

If you're gonna be fair though you're gonna have to include Nadal's 2005 and 2006 then, cause it's not his fault Nole couldn't peak earlier.
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I didn't update the calculations to include withdrawals because there's no way to account for that. I could have said "Rafa would have been the 2nd seed, so Djokovic would have met him in the final" but that would have caused the whole tournament to play out differently, and would've been a lot more work. As for the 2005-2006 seasons, I didn't include it because during the 2006 season Djokovic still had to qualify for tournaments. The same way that you wouldn't measure Nadal's 2004 when comparing him to Federer, you don't include Djokovic's 2006. You can disagree, and if you do feel free to adjust the numbers to include 2005-2006, but given as Djokovic was absent half the 2005 season, I feel it's a bit of a bad comparison.

As for what you should read from the post, generally you can take this away:
  • The two of them meet on clay more often because they're both less prone to upsets on clay - both Nadal and Djokovic are more likely to meet on clay, roughly 1.5x more likely to meet at any given tournament if they're both in the draw.
  • Djokovic withdraws from hard court and clay tournaments at about the rate you would expect. Nadal withdraws with extreme prejudice toward hard court, particularly indoor hard court. Whether this is him avoiding a surface he doesn't like or due to injuries at the end of the season, when indoor happens to be, is unclear.
  • The fact that Nadal has withdrawn so many times has left them with roughly 30 fewer hard court projected meetings than they would have had, which would translate to roughly 10 matches on hard court they would've played.
You can't explain away all of the clay skew by just saying "Djokovic couldn't make HC SFs" or "Nadal couldn't make HC SFs", but there are 2 main contributing factors: Nadal's tendency to skip hard court tournaments (notably Paris), and the fact that Novak and Rafa are more consistent on clay.
 
TripleATeam said:
I didn't update the calculations to include withdrawals because there's no way to account for that. I could have said "Rafa would have been the 2nd seed, so Djokovic would have met him in the final" but that would have caused the whole tournament to play out differently, and would've been a lot more work. As for the 2005-2006 seasons, I didn't include it because during the 2006 season Djokovic still had to qualify for tournaments. The same way that you wouldn't measure Nadal's 2004 when comparing him to Federer, you don't include Djokovic's 2006. You can disagree, and if you do feel free to adjust the numbers to include 2005-2006, but given as Djokovic was absent half the 2005 season, I feel it's a bit of a bad comparison.
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The thing is, if you are going to fault Rafa for withdrawing due to injuries, by the same logic I will fault Novak for not being at the level required to meet him in 2005/2006 because they are only 1 year separated by age and H2h is a career rivalry. You can fault both players for different reasons using the same logic. Novak was playing top level tennis while Rafa was out of tournaments with injury? Well Rafa was already playing top level tennis in 2005/2006 while Novak was nowhere to be seen either.
 
Well the OP's post basically just proved what most of us around here say anyway.

Nadal is better on Clay than Djoker is on Hardcourts.

Well that's what the numbers showed even though it went against what the OP was suggesting.

For Djoker to match Nadal's numbers on Clay would essentially mean ...

Djoker would have to dominate 2 x more HC slams (2 HC vs 1 Clay Slam) & 2 x M1000s (6 HC M1000s vs 3 Clay M1000s) + the YEC he would have to be twice as good on Hardcourt than Nadal is on clay right?

& that is just to match Nadal's numbers on clay because it's over twice as many tournaments which would be impossible. Djoker would essentially need to be a more consistent Nadal on a HC & good luck with that!

No one can be as good on any surface as Nadal is on clay , yet we are going to blame Djoker for not being as good on HC when there's twice as many "Big Titles" on HC than there is on Clay?

Is there any logic with these posts?
 
ADuck said:
The thing is, if you are going to fault Rafa for withdrawing due to injuries, by the same logic I will fault Novak for not being at the level required to meet him in 2005/2006 because they are only 1 year separated by age and H2h is a career rivalry. You can fault both players for different reasons using the same logic. Novak was playing top level tennis while Rafa was out of tournaments with injury? Well Rafa was already playing top level tennis in 2005/2006 while Novak was nowhere to be seen either.
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Not the same logic, clearly. In one case I'm adjusting the numbers so that they exclude withdrawals (benefiting Nadal) and in the other I'm adjusting the numbers so that they take place when both are exceptional compared to the field (benefiting Djokovic). I'm not faulting Rafa. I'm explaining away a clay skew by saying that it's partly due to Rafa's withdrawals.

2005-2006 Djokovic shouldn't be used because he wasn't expected to get to Djokovic on clay or on hard court. He was nothing compared to any top 10 player on the tour, let alone Nadal. Nadal has been expected to be in the top 5 at any tournament since 2007 though. But you know what? Fine.

I ran the numbers using 2005 and 2006 too.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on clay (1000+): RG = 16, MC = 14, Madrid = 10, Rome = 15. All together = 55
Times Nadal made it: RG - 14, MC - 11, Madrid - 6, Rome - 13. 44 in total.
Times Djokovic made it: RG - 9, MC - 4, Madrid - 7, Rome - 13. 33 in total.

Nadal made it for 80% of their projected meetings on clay. Djokovic made 60% of their projected meetings.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on hard (1000+): AO = 16, IW = 13, Miami = 10, Canada = 8, Cincinnati = 9, USO = 12, Shanghai = 9, Paris = 6, WTF = 8 Semifinal+Finals, 3 Group. Total: 94
Times Nadal made it: AO = 5, IW = 7, Miami = 5, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 3, USO = 4, Shanghai = 2, Paris = 2, WTF = 5. Total: 37
Times Djokovic made it: AO = 8, IW = 6, Miami = 7, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 4, USO = 7, Shanghai = 5, Paris = 4, WTF = 4. Total: 49

Nadal made it for 39% of their projected meetings on HC. Djokovic made 52% of their projected meetings.

Congratulations, the clay skew has gotten even more pronounced, but now there's 3 reasons.
1. Nadal withdrawing
2. Nadal and Djokovic were both not as good at hard court early in their career, suppressing that statistic.
3. Nadal and Djokovic are both more consistent on clay.

Better now?
 
TripleATeam said:
Not the same logic, clearly. In one case I'm adjusting the numbers so that they exclude withdrawals (benefiting Nadal) and in the other I'm adjusting the numbers so that they take place when both are exceptional compared to the field (benefiting Djokovic). I'm not faulting Rafa. I'm explaining away a clay skew by saying that it's partly due to Rafa's withdrawals.

2005-2006 Djokovic shouldn't be used because he wasn't expected to get to Djokovic on clay or on hard court. He was nothing compared to any top 10 player on the tour, let alone Nadal. Nadal has been expected to be in the top 5 at any tournament since 2007 though. But you know what? Fine.

I ran the numbers using 2005 and 2006 too.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on clay (1000+): RG = 16, MC = 14, Madrid = 10, Rome = 15. All together = 55
Times Nadal made it: RG - 14, MC - 11, Madrid - 6, Rome - 13. 44 in total.
Times Djokovic made it: RG - 9, MC - 4, Madrid - 7, Rome - 13. 33 in total.

Nadal made it for 80% of their projected meetings on clay. Djokovic made 60% of their projected meetings.

Times Nadal and Djokovic were set to meet on hard (1000+): AO = 16, IW = 13, Miami = 10, Canada = 8, Cincinnati = 9, USO = 12, Shanghai = 9, Paris = 6, WTF = 8 Semifinal+Finals, 3 Group. Total: 94
Times Nadal made it: AO = 5, IW = 7, Miami = 5, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 3, USO = 4, Shanghai = 2, Paris = 2, WTF = 5. Total: 37
Times Djokovic made it: AO = 8, IW = 6, Miami = 7, Canada = 4, Cincinnati = 4, USO = 7, Shanghai = 5, Paris = 4, WTF = 4. Total: 49

Nadal made it for 39% of their projected meetings on HC. Djokovic made 52% of their projected meetings.

Congratulations, the clay skew has gotten even more pronounced, but now there's 3 reasons.
1. Nadal withdrawing
2. Nadal and Djokovic were both not as good at hard court early in their career, suppressing that statistic.
3. Nadal and Djokovic are both more consistent on clay.

Better now?
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The main point of this thread is to show that Nadal IF you are to play the blame game for a Clay skew in the H2H, Nadal is NOT the one mainly at fault like many people believe. That's all I'm saying. I don't disagree with Nadal's withdrawals being a factor, because everything is a factor, including Novak not being good enough to meet Nadal in 2005-2006. The percentages you have given only further support that proposition. Why? Because Nadal is showing up to potential HC meetings at a percentage closer to Novak's, than Novak's percentage at showing up to potential Clay meetings is to Nadal's. I'm just reiterating the OP though.

Simplifying the above - Rafa has set a better standard for showing up to Clay AND HC's meetings on aggregate than Novak. I think

If we don't play any blame game then we can simply say Rafa/Novak are just more likely to meet in a clay tournament because their combined stats on clay are better than their combined stats on HC's.
 
Leandro2045 said:
TLDR : Djokovic inability to make Hard Court Finals & Semis at the same rate Nadal does on Clay Courts.

People claim we see more Djokodal matches on Clay because Novak is "an all court phenom" that adapted to clay while Rafa "struggles on Hard"

I'm here to show you with real facts the real problem.

First their stats on their respective worse surface :

Nadal has reached 48 Hard Court Finals in 155 HC tournaments. (31%)
Nadal has reached 82 Hard Court Semifinals in 155 HC tournaments (53%)

Djokovic has reached 27 Clay Court Finals in 69 tournaments (39%)
Djokovic has reached 40 Clay Court Semifinals in 69 Tournaments (58%)

That's a Final and Semifinal difference of 8% & 5% in favour of Novak on their worse surfaces.

Now, the real problem arrives :

Second their stats on their respective best surface :

Nadal has reached 70 Clay Court Finals in 106 Tournaments (67%)
Nadal has reached 79 Clay Court Finals in 106 Tournaments. (75%)

Djokovic has reached 80 Hard Court Finals in 164 Tournaments (49%)
Djokovic has reached 105 Hard Court Semifinals in 164 Tournaments (64%)

That's a Final and Semifinal difference of 18% & 11% in favour of Nadal on their best surfaces.

Essentially : 18% - 8%, 11% - 5%. Nadal is doing his part in the rivarly, Djokovic is just not doing his job on Hard courts to create more Djokodal HC matches...
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Amazing observation and analysis. Djokovic fans are speechless. :giggle: Hopefully they will have the integrity to admit they are wrong. They will have no choice because the numbers are there for everyone to see. (y)
 
Leandro2045 said:
TLDR : Djokovic inability to make Hard Court Finals & Semis at the same rate Nadal does on Clay Courts.

People claim we see more Djokodal matches on Clay because Novak is "an all court phenom" that adapted to clay while Rafa "struggles on Hard"

I'm here to show you with real facts the real problem.

First their stats on their respective worse surface :

Nadal has reached 48 Hard Court Finals in 155 HC tournaments. (31%)
Nadal has reached 82 Hard Court Semifinals in 155 HC tournaments (53%)

Djokovic has reached 27 Clay Court Finals in 69 tournaments (39%)
Djokovic has reached 40 Clay Court Semifinals in 69 Tournaments (58%)

That's a Final and Semifinal difference of 8% & 5% in favour of Novak on their worse surfaces.

Now, the real problem arrives :

Second their stats on their respective best surface :

Nadal has reached 70 Clay Court Finals in 106 Tournaments (67%)
Nadal has reached 79 Clay Court Finals in 106 Tournaments. (75%)

Djokovic has reached 80 Hard Court Finals in 164 Tournaments (49%)
Djokovic has reached 105 Hard Court Semifinals in 164 Tournaments (64%)

That's a Final and Semifinal difference of 18% & 11% in favour of Nadal on their best surfaces.

Essentially : 18% - 8%, 11% - 5%. Nadal is doing his part in the rivarly, Djokovic is just not doing his job on Hard courts to create more Djokodal HC matches...
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This is simple to explain. There are almost no good clay court players with Nadal the best and Djokovic second best. There are many times more good hard court players than clay court players, so it is much harder for Djokovic to reach the SF and F. Of course, the same could be said about grass, that only Federer and Djokovic are really consistently good on grass. It is just that there is only one grass tournament a year that really matters to the GOAT debate.
 
ADuck said:
The main point of this thread is to show that Nadal IF you are to play the blame game for a Clay skew in the H2H, Nadal is NOT the one mainly at fault like many people believe. That's all I'm saying. I don't disagree with Nadal's withdrawals being a factor, because everything is a factor, including Novak not being good enough to meet Nadal in 2005-2006. The percentages you have given only further support that proposition. Why? Because Nadal is showing up to potential HC meetings at a percentage closer to Novak's, than Novak's percentage at showing up to potential Clay meetings is to Nadal's. I'm just reiterating the OP though.

Simplifying the above - Rafa has set a better standard for showing up to Clay AND HC's meetings on aggregate than Novak. I think

If we don't play any blame game then we can simply say Rafa/Novak are just more likely to meet in a clay tournament because their combined stats on clay are better than their combined stats on HC's.
Click to expand...
But the overall numbers are that Federer has reached more F and SF than Djokovic who has reached more than Nadal. Of course Federer has several more years of play. Just go and look at wikipedia to see that Nadal is more often beaten earlier than Federer and Djokovic. Again, much easier to reach clay or grass SF and F for Nadal and Djokovic respectively than hardcourt because there are really no great clay or grass players other than Djokovic on both surfaces with Nadal much better overall and Djokovic clearly better than Nadal on grass (and hardcourt).
 
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