The Real Reason Nadal Struggles At Wimbledon Now

[triforce defender]

I see so many reasons on this board about why Nadal struggles at Wimbledon now compared to his heydays there but we're all complicating things. But knees, hot opponents, conditions, etc. are not the reasons. There's a very simple explanation: Nadal has been bad at tiebreaks.

Nadal has always been one of the best tie-break players on tour and Wimbledon was no different. In the 5 Wimbledons he played from from 2006-2011, Nadal compiled a sterling 17-8 tiebreak record. These included pivotal tiebreaks he won vs Gulbis (2008 2R), Soderling (2010 QF), and Murray (2010 SF) during his title runs.

But since winning the 1st set tiebreak vs Lukas Rosol at 2012 Wimbledon, Nadal has gone 1-5 in tiebreaks. Nadal lost both tiebreaks in losses to Darcis and Kyrgios. He also lost the only tiebreak played vs Kukushkin. Ironically, the only tiebreak he has won since 2012 vs Rosol is...vs Rosol this year. Lukas Rosol is singlehandedly ensuring Nadal is not getting shut out in tiebreaks

Now the thing about tiebreaks is it's basically a coin flip. The best players usually have the best tiebreak records simply because they are better players. A big serve helps but Nadal has usually been one of the best tiebreak players on tour despite not owning a big serve. This ultimately gives me hope that Nadal can eventually turn it around at Wimbledon. Because he has underperformed so much in tiebreaks recently, things might eventually average out again and he'll perform to his usual level; a regression to toward the mean as they call it in statistics. It's not like he's losing 6-2, 6-2, 6-0 and can't even get to a tiebreak. In the matches he loses, he gets to tiebreaks and loses them as opposed to winning them before.

 

[addictedtotopspin]

There are only 2 reasons.

1) he has no more strenght to go through clay and then come back fully prepared for grass.His tank runs out of gass after RG.

2) He must be carefull about his knees, he cant go low and bow enough which is important on Grass since bounce is low.

 

[triforce defender]

There are only 2 reasons.

1) he has no more strenght to go through clay and then come back fully prepared for grass.His tank runs out of gass after RG.

2) He must be carefull about his knees, he cant go low and bow enough which is important on Grass since bounce is low.

I think those are convenient and oversimplified excuses. I'm a huge fan of Nadal's and find those reasons to be lacking in both logic and factual evidence. Whereas my reasoning for his tiebreak performance is based in stats and historical evidence.

 

[SpinToWin]

You say a lot and yet you say nothing. Why is he struggling? You haven't answered the question, as I can just as well ask "Why is he struggling in tiebreaks?" and the question basically has the same implication, yet your answer is insufficient.

 

[NatF]

Nadal's serve is better than ever (minus this year due to the back), even in 2012 his serve was working well when he lost.

 

[triforce defender]

You say a lot and yet you say nothing. Why is he struggling? You haven't answered the question, as I can just as well ask "Why is he struggling in tiebreaks?" and the question basically has the same implication, yet your answer is insufficient.

I answered that question in my OP. There is no particular reason why any players struggle in tiebreaks. They are basically coin flips and Nadal has lost the coin flips lately. There is nothing skill-wise that has deteriorated; the law of averages simply caught up to him recently and the law of averages will eventually tilt the other way. Paople always think there is some science to succeeding in tiebreaks but honestly there's not. The only true factor may be mental but that is a quality hard to quantify.

 

[triforce defender]

Nadal's serve is better than ever (minus this year due to the back), even in 2012 his serve was working well when he lost.

I didn't say his serve had worsened. Tiebreak success does not correlate with serving ability as much as people would like to think. Tiebreaks are basically crapshoots and Nadal has merely ended on the wrong side more often than not recently but the law of averages will eventually even things out.

 

[octobrina10]

There are only 2 reasons.
...
2) He must be carefull about his knees, he cant go low and bow enough which is important on Grass since bounce is low.

I think those are convenient and oversimplified excuses. I'm a huge fan of Nadal's and find those reasons to be lacking in both logic and factual evidence...

triforce defender, you declare that you are '"a huge fan of Nadal'", but you don't believe him! It's weird!

An interview in Cincinnati on August 14, 2013.
RAFAEL NADAL: "My knee is healed, is working well for the moment. I felt more trouble on grass because the movements are less stable and I need to play lower than in the rest of the surfaces."

 

[triforce defender]

triforce defender, you declare that you are '"a huge fan of Nadal'", but you don't believe him! It's weird!

An interview in Cincinnati on August 14, 2013.
RAFAEL NADAL: "My knee is healed, is working well for the moment. I felt more trouble on grass because the movements are less stable and I need to play lower than in the rest of the surfaces."

But he is still good enough to take it to tiebreaks in matches he lost. Again, it's not like he's losing those sets by huge margins; he gets to the tiebreaks and just loses them. His knees are good enough to get him to tiebreaks, then his knees are good enough to win Wimbledon again.

 

[Deleted member 688153]

I thought the established reason for this was that grass has a low bounce, which bothers Nadal (with his knee issues) to no end.

As Octobrina said, Nadal himself says this is the reason.

Also being tired after the clay season is another reason. I just don't think he focuses much on Wimbledon any more.

 

[triforce defender]

I thought the established reason for this was that grass has a low bounce, which bothers Nadal (with his knee issues) to no end.

As Octobrina said, Nadal himself says this is the reason.

Also being tired after the clay season is another reason. I just don't think he focuses much on Wimbledon any more.

Again, those knees are still good enough for him to get to tiebreaks even in his losses. Once his tiebreak luck turns around, he will start winning again at Wimbledon, bad knee or no bad knee.

 

[Russeljones]

I answered that question in my OP. There is no particular reason why any players struggle in tiebreaks. They are basically coin flips and Nadal has lost the coin flips lately. There is nothing skill-wise that has deteriorated; the law of averages simply caught up to him recently and the law of averages will eventually tilt the other way. Paople always think there is some science to succeeding in tiebreaks but honestly there's not. The only true factor may be mental but that is a quality hard to quantify.

So the luckier player wins the TB? Okay pal..

 

[Sysyphus]

Again, those knees are still good enough for him to get to tiebreaks even in his losses. Once his tiebreak luck turns around, he will start winning again at Wimbledon, bad knee or no bad knee.

He didn't suddenly start losing so many matches in the early rounds of Wimby and Halle because of "luck". Come on.
Your tiebreak theory is basically begging the question like SpinToWin said. It's an interesting stat though, I'll give you that.

 

[triforce defender]

He didn't suddenly start losing so many matches in the early rounds of Wimby and Halle because of "luck". Come on.
Your tiebreak theory is basically begging the question like SpinToWin said. It's an interesting stat though, I'll give you that.

Tiebreaks are more or less based on luck. In 2011, Novak Djokovic won 10% fewer tiebreaks than expected for someone of his caliber and yet he had his best season ever. Link to tiebreak analysis is here: http://heavytopspin.com/2012/10/18/the-luck-of-the-tiebreak/

 

[addictedtotopspin]

Those reason i wrote in second post are so obiovus.

Its not excuse, its Rafaels fault that he spent his body too much so he cant go through Clay nad WB sucessufly in last years.
I must admitt there were a litl bit of unlucky for him with some on fire opponents but mostly its cus of those reasons i wrote.

Its only true because its logical.Rafaels is tehnicly better player since 2011 but still cant have same results like 2006,7,8 or 10.

 

[D.Nalby12]

All after knee bending, not focusing, gassing out due to clay season and tons of other excuses from fans, I have no doubt this year Nadal would've made it to Final at least if he got USO 13 draw avoiding big hitter.

Big hitters was always his problem. Give him Gasquet, Robredo kind of weaponless players instead of Rosol, Klizan, Kyrgios, I even doubt he'll drop set even on grass in route.

Lack of variety and relatively ineffective topspin forehand due to low bounce are fundamental problems rather than knees, focus and other garbage IMO.

 

[Sysyphus]

Tiebreaks are more or less based on luck. In 2011, Novak Djokovic won 10% fewer tiebreaks than expected for someone of his caliber and yet he had his best season ever. Link to tiebreak analysis is here: http://heavytopspin.com/2012/10/18/the-luck-of-the-tiebreak/

If you think that he has lost early at Wimbledon for three straight years, plus a couple of bad losses at Halle, simply because of a concentrated spell of bad luck, then I don't know what to tell you. It is obvious that you've already decided on your conclusion, and as you can see, few others buy it.

 

[Sysyphus]

All after knee bending, not focusing, gassing out due to clay season and tons of other excuses from fans, I have no doubt this year Nadal would've made it to Final at least if he got USO 13 draw avoiding big hitter.

Big hitters was always his problem. Give him Gasquet, Robredo kind of weaponless players instead of Rosol, Klizan, Kyrgios, I even doubt he'll drop set even on grass in route.

Lack of variety and relatively ineffective topspin forehand due to low bounce are fundamental problems rather than knees, focus and other garbage IMO.

Yeah, I somewhat agree with this. He has always been vulnerable in the early rounds on grass, and recently he simple hasn't had enough game there. His groundies sit up. Have to mention that Darcis isn't really a big hitter though, so I think his problems go somewhat beyond that.

 

[octobrina10]

Those reason i wrote in second post are so obiovus.

Its not excuse, its Rafaels fault that he spent his body too much so he cant go through Clay nad WB sucessufly in last years....

What does it mean: "he spent his body too much"?

 

[Sysyphus]

What does it mean: "he spent his body too much"?

wore out, exhausted.

 

[Mr.Snrub]

Tiebreaks are not just crap shoots. They're all about confidence and staying calm under pressure. Nadal didn't lose any tiebreaks to Rosol in 2012 but surprise surprise he lost a bunch of them to Darcis and Kyrgios.

Just the fact that the first 2 sets against Darcis went to tiebreaks should tell you something is off. That guy is weak and not the type of player who gave Nadal issues at Wimbledon in the past.

 

[triforce defender]

If you think that he has lost early at Wimbledon for three straight years, plus a couple of bad losses at Halle, simply because of a concentrated spell of bad luck, then I don't know what to tell you. It is obvious that you've already decided on your conclusion, and as you can see, few others buy it.

I don't believe his loss at Halle was due to tiebreak problem (he never even got to one). And his loss to Rosol in 2012 was not due to a tiebreak problem either (he actually won the only tiebreak played in that match). But I do believe tiebreak luck was the main problem in his losses to Darcis and Kyrgios. Does that sound better?

Now we can agree to disagree as I believe you bring up some nice points. But do you at least agree with me on the tiebreak analysis in the link I presented?

 

[D.Nalby12]

Yeah, I somewhat agree with this. He has always been vulnerable in the early rounds on grass, and recently he simple hasn't had enough game there. His groundies sit up. Have to mention that Darcis isn't really a big hitter though, so I think his problems go somewhat beyond that.

IMO He tanked against Darcis last year to focus on summer hard court swing. He didn't even try his best.

Against Rosol and Kyrgios, he gave his all but still at the end got fairly outplayed. Rosol was outplaying him this year too when luckily escaped from 2nd set TB like he used to do during 2006-10.

If Gasquet would've converted one of nine MPs he had against Kyrgios, I'm sure he would've rolled into SF at least breaking recent trend and we wouldn't be discussing this now.

 

[Sysyphus]

I don't believe his loss at Halle was due to tiebreak problem (he never even got to one). And his loss to Rosol in 2012 was not due to a tiebreak problem either (he actually won the only tiebreak played in that match). But I do believe tiebreak luck was the main problem in his losses to Darcis and Kyrgios. Does that sound better?

Now we can agree to disagree as I believe you bring up some nice points. But do you at least agree with me on the tiebreak analysis in the link I presented?

That sounds feasible, and would agree that it could be said to be a factor in these matches.
I only skimmed the analysis in the link, and I see the point about regressing back to average. I don't really know to what extent that is the case or not, but in the case of Rafa I guess we'll get to see!

 

[Sysyphus]

IMO He tanked against Darcis last year to focus on summer hard court swing. He didn't even try his best.

Against Rosol and Kyrgios, he gave his all but still at the end got fairly outplayed. Rosol was outplaying him this year too when luckily escaped from 2nd set TB.

Hmm, I have a hard time seeing that. Wimbledon is the biggest occasion in tennis, and as I remember the match he looked quite crushed and disappointed. I don't can't say for sure though.

 

[triforce defender]

Hmm, I have a hard time seeing that. Wimbledon is the biggest occasion in tennis, and as I remember the match he looked quite crushed and disappointed. I don't can't say for sure though.

He tanked so he could focus on a portion of the season (summer HC Swing) where's he's historically been hit-or-miss? Prior to 2013, he owned 1 USO title, 2 Canada Masters, and 0 Cincinnati Masters Finals. His record was very good but not spectacular and on a surface that is the worst on knees in general (concrete). If he truly tanked for the HC swing then it was the least logical tank job in history.

 

[Sysyphus]

He tanked so he could focus on a portion of the season (summer HC Swing) where's he's historically been hit-or-miss? Prior to 2013, he owned 1 USO title, 2 Canada Masters, and 0 Cincinnati Masters Finals. His record was very good but not spectacular and on a surface that is the worst on knees in general (concrete). If he truly tanked for the HC swing then it was the least logical tank job in history.

Yes, I agree. As I said, I have a hard time seeing that. I'm sure he was thirsting for revenge at Wimbledon 2013.

 

[BringBackSV]

I haven't looked at the stats but I'd imagine he's been too passive in rallies and his return game has not been effective enough.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Hmm, I have a hard time seeing that. Wimbledon is the biggest occasion in tennis, and as I remember the match he looked quite crushed and disappointed. I don't can't say for sure though.

Tank or not. That was One inexplicable R1 loss . Rest of the losses, struggle against big hitters not only on grass but on all surfaces due to lack of variety backs up my point.

I can't see the way he's losing earlier on grass if he gets USO2013 draw with no dangerous big hitters.

 

[addictedtotopspin]

All after knee bending, not focusing, gassing out due to clay season and tons of other excuses from fans, I have no doubt this year Nadal would've made it to Final at least if he got USO 13 draw avoiding big hitter.

Big hitters was always his problem. Give him Gasquet, Robredo kind of weaponless players instead of Rosol, Klizan, Kyrgios, I even doubt he'll drop set even on grass in route.

Lack of variety and relatively ineffective topspin forehand due to low bounce are fundamental problems rather than knees, focus and other garbage IMO.

Same weapons granted him 2006 final, 2007 final, 2008 title against best ever on that surface, 2010 title and 2011 final.
His game isnt realy suitable for grasse, I AGREE WITH THAT.But when he is healthy and in shape he is just awesome on every surface.Those weapons are just good enough for big results.His mentalty,hart of a champion and physical strenght would grant him AWESOME results on every surface in every era with any kind of opponents.

Btw, we are talking about 2 titles and 3 finals more.Its impossible that he didint face some hard hitters and on fire players during 5 years...

 

[triforce defender]

Tank or not. That was One inexplicable R1 loss . Rest of the losses, struggle against big hitters not only on grass but on all surfaces due to lack of variety backs up my point.

I can't see the way he's losing earlier on grass if he gets USO2013 draw with no dangerous big hitters.

Just because you can't understand something doesn't mean you have to rely on conspiracy theories like tank jobs. I explained a few posts back why tanking would have been illogical for Nadal at that point. Sometimes upset losses just happen for no particular reason other than the favorite played badly, ok? Nadal is a human being after all and everyone plays bad matches.

 

[Sysyphus]

Same weapons granted him 2006 final, 2007 final, 2008 title against best ever on that surface, 2010 title and 2011 final.
His game isnt realy suitable for grasse, I AGREE WITH THAT.But when he is healthy and in shape he is just awesome on every surface.Those weapons are just good enough for big results.His mentalty,hart of a champion and physical strenght would grant him AWESOME results on every surface in every era with any kind of opponents.

Btw, we are talking about 2 titles and 3 finals more.Its impossible that he didint face some hard hitters and on fire players during 5 years...

Yes, I agree, but why would you say he struggles more now?

re: last sentence, he did indeed meet big hitters then too, and he has struggled many times in early rounds on grass before, so D.Nalby is right on that one, I'd say.

 

[triforce defender]

Yes, I agree, but why would you say he struggles more now?

re: last sentence, he did indeed meet big hitters then too, and he has struggled many times in early rounds on grass before, so D.Nalby is right on that one, I'd say.

Easy. He was lucky in some tiebreaks and his aura was intact to get through the early rounds where he would become uber-Nadal in the 2nd week. There is also the additional possibility that Rosol took away some of Nadal's aura on grass surface and made future opponents believe in themselves when they took the court against Nadal. It's easier to believe in oneself when there is a precedent to give you hope.

 

[torpantennis]

Nadal struggles on grass, because he avoids fully bending his knees. Only blind eyes (or brains) cannot see this.

 

[torpantennis]

He tanked so he could focus on a portion of the season (summer HC Swing) where's he's historically been hit-or-miss? Prior to 2013, he owned 1 USO title, 2 Canada Masters, and 0 Cincinnati Masters Finals. His record was very good but not spectacular and on a surface that is the worst on knees in general (concrete). If he truly tanked for the HC swing then it was the least logical tank job in history.

Sure, hard court is the worst surface for developing bad knees. But if you already have bad knees, like Nadal does, then grass court is the most challenging surface TO SUCCEED ON. That's simply because the lower bounce of grass forces you to bend your knees more than any other surface.

 

[addictedtotopspin]

What arua, are you normal? This is tennis not paladins in World of Worraf game...

His style of game, on any surface, needs good physical strenght and he must be in shape.He cant play tennis being physcily unprepared like some other players.Players with extra good serve and great flat and offensive ability (hard hitters) can beat anybod BY JUST HAVING THEIR DAY.They dont have to be in such a great shape.

So in last years he cant go with same amount of energy at WB after exhausting RG and clay season.On all of that add that he is harder banding his knees = 3 earlier loses.

Btw there was some bad luck in that.At 2012 he faced on fire oponnent + has been injured.
2013 was the wierdest.I think that year he had to go to atleast 4th round but it was comback year.Clay took more strenght than ever.
THis year he wasnt playing bad at all, plenty winners (more than Novak and Fed in first 4 matches) and great serve % (75% first serve in) but he just faced opponent that had 40 aces in 4 sets.+ he lost all his power in 4th set.I never seen someone outplay Nadal with exhausting him and in 4th set of match with Nick K Rafa was totaly tiered.

 

[octobrina10]

...There is also the additional possibility that Rosol took away some of Nadal's aura on grass surface...

Rafa was diagnosed with Hoffa's syndrome in his left knee after the 2012 Wimbledon and he was off the Tour for 7 months.

{Rosol is still the same Rosol - he kicked over Rafa's water bottle at the 2014 Wimbledon, but it didn't help him win. }

 

[octobrina10]

...
2013 was the wierdest.I think that year he had to go to atleast 4th round but it was comback year...

I repeat.
An interview in Cincinnati on August 14, 2013.
RAFAEL NADAL: "My knee is healed, is working well for the moment. I felt more trouble on grass because the movements are less stable and I need to play lower than in the rest of the surfaces."

 

[triforce defender]

What arua, are you normal? This is tennis not paladins in World of Worraf game...

His style of game, on any surface, needs good physical strenght and he must be in shape.He cant play tennis being physcily unprepared like some other players.Players with extra good serve and great flat and offensive ability (hard hitters) can beat anybod BY JUST HAVING THEIR DAY.They dont have to be in such a great shape.

So in last years he cant go with same amount of energy at WB after exhausting RG and clay season.On all of that add that he is harder banding his knees = 3 earlier loses.

Btw there was some bad luck in that.At 2012 he faced on fire oponnent + has been injured.
2013 was the wierdest.I think that year he had to go to atleast 4th round but it was comback year.Clay took more strenght than ever.
THis year he wasnt playing bad at all, plenty winners (more than Novak and Fed in first 4 matches) and great serve % (75% first serve in) but he just faced opponent that had 40 aces in 4 sets.+ he lost all his power in 4th set.I never seen someone outplay Nadal with exhausting him and in 4th set of match with Nick K Rafa was totaly tiered.

But Nadal is a paladin with +200 to Topspin, +100 to mental toughness, and +50 to defense.

 

[octobrina10]

What does it mean: "he spent his body too much"?

wore out, exhausted.

I wanted to know where "he spent his body too much"?

 

[Sysyphus]

I wanted to know where "he spent his body too much"?

Probably during the clay swing prior to Wimbledon.

 

[torpantennis]

His struggles on grass are just a proof that he's been in physical decline, ever since 2011. TBH, I think he's done winning slams off RG. One or two more FO, and then that's that. It's even possible that Nishikori will rob him of winning the 10th FO!

 

[octobrina10]

Probably during the clay swing prior to Wimbledon.

Do you think that Rafa wins "too much" matches on each clay court tournament?

 

[John6239]

Nadal has been struggling on grass the last few years because he has been overpowered by flat hitters. For whatever reason, despite doing great on clay and well on hardcourt he can't handle big hitters on grass anymore. Maybe it's his movement. He's going to be 29 so this year will be telling.

 

[Sysyphus]

Do you think that Rafa wins "too much" matches on each clay court tournament?

I think he is naturally tired from playing so much on clay (he usually enters more clay tournys than most, and usually goes deep). Couple this with his brittle physical state, and I don't think it's a recipe for success at Wimby these days. Maybe he'll do better with the added rest in 2015.

 

[Bartelby]

This would mean he does not want to win Wimbledon.

I think he is naturally tired from playing so much on clay (he usually enters more clay tournys than most, and usually goes deep). Couple this with his brittle physical state, and I don't think it's a recipe for success at Wimby these days. Maybe he'll do better with the added rest in 2015.

 

[torpantennis]

Nadal has been struggling on grass the last few years because he has been overpowered by flat hitters. For whatever reason, despite doing great on clay and well on hardcourt he can't handle big hitters on grass anymore. Maybe it's his movement. He's going to be 29 so this year will be telling.

He's not overpowered. It's solely his inability to handle low bouncing flat hitting, because he's afraid to bend his knees.

 

[Sysyphus]

This would mean he does not want to win Wimbledon.

No. I don't really think that. RG is his best shot at GS during a season, so he's never going to back of that one. Wimbledon simply comes straight after that. His physical liabilities are more oft exposed on grass too, I would argue, and many others have already suggested the same thing.

 

[torpantennis]

This would mean he does not want to win Wimbledon.

Basically yes, because it's very evident he doesn't want to fully bend his knees. And he perfectly knows that he has to do that to win Wimby. He doesn't give it his all, because he either lacks confidence or is physically unable to do it.

 

[octobrina10]

I think he is naturally tired from playing so much on clay (he usually enters more clay tournys than most, and usually goes deep). Couple this with his brittle physical state, and I don't think it's a recipe for success at Wimby these days. Maybe he'll do better with the added rest in 2015.

Rafa hasn't played more tournaments than it has been necessary. Masters 1000 (except Monte Carlo) have been mandatory events and Top-30 players have had to play a minimum of four 500 level tournaments during the calendar year.

The ATP website: ¤¤ Top 30 players (based on the year-end ATP Rankings) must play a minimum of four 500 level tournaments during the calendar year, including at least one event following the US Open (Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event will count towards the minimum of four) ¤¤