The Realistic Favorites for the US Open

Fabresque

Professional
#1
Top 3 Favorites: Djokovic, Nadal, Federer

Djokovic: Now that he’s won Cincinnati it’s hard to not consider him the main favorite for the Open. A hiccup in Toronto doesn’t matter at this point. He should be in fine shape to play five setters after grinding out 3 former Cincy champions and winning 4 3 setters.

Nadal: He’s either equal or barely below Djokovic as the favorite to retain his title. His Toronto form was very good and only had trouble against Cilic, who we’ll get to soon enough. A win in Toronto solidified him as one of the main favorites.

Federer: Although he hadn’t looked good in the final vs Djokovic, he still reached the final in Cincy with little to no trouble besides a first set hiccup against Stan Wawrinka. He rounds out the three main favorites.

Other Main Favorites: Cilic, Del Potro

Cilic: Had some positive performances in Toronto and in Cincinatti despite not being able to reach the finals in either. If he plays like he did against Nadal in the first set of their Toronto QF, he can quite possibly beat anyone in his draw.

Del Potro: He loves the US Open, I can see him going deep in the tournament despite losing to Goffin in Cincinnati. He just needs to stay healthy for the Open and he should be another contender.

Decent Contenders: Anderson, Tsitsipas

Anderson: He had a good Toronto despite being upset by Tsitsipas, albeit he had a disappointing loss in Cincinnati. He reached the final last year, so he should be in contention to go far again this year

Tsitsipas: So many positive things for him right now. Defeating numerous top players in Toronto helped him on his way to the final, where he lost to an inform Nadal. His game can cause trouble to anyone, so I can see him getting a good run in.

Second Week Contenders/Outside Favorites: Dimitrov, Zverev, Isner

Dimitrov: He’s inconsistent but showed positive signs in his loss to Djokovic in Cincy. I can see him getting to at least the second week of the tournament with a good draw.

Zverev: Although his slam performances have been laughable, he’s still a Top 5 player and should be able to move forward with the draw he gets, unless he gets any veterans who’ll take him out (Verdasco at the French last year, for example).

Isner: His performances have been pretty poor as of late. He hasn’t been able to do much in 3 out of the 4 events he’s played. He lost to Khachanov and Querrey pretty disappointingly as well. But he’s a big server and it’s his favorite slam for obvious reasons, he should get a good draw and progress.

Small/No Chance of winning: Thiem, Kyrgios, and most of the other seeds.

Just going to bunch them all together, they have a chance to get to the second week obviously but after that they’re going to hit the big guns like Nadal and Djokovic in the 4R or QFs. At that point, it’s going to take their best tennis to have a chance. Thiem and Kyrgios haven’t been performing well as of late, although the latter tanks more than he performs. Thiem is all over the place.

Giant Killers: Wawrinka, Shapovalov, Khachanov

Wawrinka: He should be optimistic going into the US Open after his hard court season so far. Could’ve beaten both Nadal and Federer, two favorites, in Toronto and Cincinatti. Still, he may not be ready for Five set matches, but should be able to give any top seeds some issues.

Shapovalov and Khachanov: Two young players who’ll get seeded and run into some higher seeded players during the 3R and 4R. They can easily take them out by playing their best tennis. Wouldn’t be surprised if a Top 10-15 seed falls to them.

Andy Murray: Murray

Murray: Yes, there’s a whole section about Andy Murray. Why? Simple. MuryGOAT.
 
#5
Top 3 Favorites: Djokovic, Nadal, Federer

Djokovic: Now that he’s won Cincinnati it’s hard to not consider him the main favorite for the Open. A hiccup in Toronto doesn’t matter at this point. He should be in fine shape to play five setters after grinding out 3 former Cincy champions and winning 4 3 setters.

Nadal: He’s either equal or barely below Djokovic as the favorite to retain his title. His Toronto form was very good and only had trouble against Cilic, who we’ll get to soon enough. A win in Toronto solidified him as one of the main favorites.
I agree with your conclusions, but not your premises. In other words, I agree that Djokovic is equally or maybe a bit more favorite than Nadal for the USO. But why do you say "Nadal had trouble with Cilic" and then don't mention nothing about Djokovic's troubles with Cilic? Double standard logic? Nadal defeated in 3 sets Cilic, winning the last set 6-4. Djokovic defeated Cilic in 3 sets, winning the last set 6-3. If Nadal "had trouble" with Cilic, so did Djokovic.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
#10
Fed being 3rd fav at a slam he hasnt won in nearly a decade says a lot more about the current field than anything else.
Honestly think Del Potro and Cilic have a bigger chance.

Also I think Kyrgios is a giant killer here. He could lose to anyone but he could probably also play a load of tiebreaks vs anyone but Djokovic and Nadal
 
#11
Honestly think Del Potro and Cilic have a bigger chance.

Also I think Kyrgios is a giant killer here. He could lose to anyone but he could probably also play a load of tiebreaks vs anyone but Djokovic and Nadal
Yeah until proven otherwise I dont expect much from kyrgios but I also wouldn't be all that surprised either if he strings a couple of matches together and does well. I definitely expect a good showing from both cilic and del potro and def agree that their chances are better than feds. I want to be terribly wrong but this "temporary" poor form is looking not so temporary.
 
#14
Federer is the top 3 favourite to reach a QF at USO. In terms of winning, Wawrinka has a better chance to win the USO than Fed.

Mentioning Fed in the same sentence as Djokovic and Nadal as favourites at the USO made me laugh.
 
#15
Honestly think Del Potro and Cilic have a bigger chance.

Also I think Kyrgios is a giant killer here. He could lose to anyone but he could probably also play a load of tiebreaks vs anyone but Djokovic and Nadal
Yup. Federer getting confident over night won't happen, but his consistency might actually improve on a slower court.
Delpo won't last, not with that slice on slow HC. A lot players can make him run all over the court.

Stan is a dark horse. Can beat a top seed in the first round, and his draw will open up. Kyrgios can beat anyone, always. Best serve on tour now.

I see Cilic as #3, behind Nad and Djok.
 
#22
I gotta pick Djokovic as the main favorite, with Nadal in second. Not sure Fed is up there unless his form dramatically improves. He looked way off in that match yesterday, but that could have been because Djokovic looked way on. If Novak can play that way, which I think he can and probably will, he will be hard to beat.
 
#26
Top 3 Favorites: Djokovic, Nadal, Federer

Djokovic: Now that he’s won Cincinnati it’s hard to not consider him the main favorite for the Open. A hiccup in Toronto doesn’t matter at this point. He should be in fine shape to play five setters after grinding out 3 former Cincy champions and winning 4 3 setters.

Nadal: He’s either equal or barely below Djokovic as the favorite to retain his title. His Toronto form was very good and only had trouble against Cilic, who we’ll get to soon enough. A win in Toronto solidified him as one of the main favorites.

Federer: Although he hadn’t looked good in the final vs Djokovic, he still reached the final in Cincy with little to no trouble besides a first set hiccup against Stan Wawrinka. He rounds out the three main favorites.

Other Main Favorites: Cilic, Del Potro

Cilic: Had some positive performances in Toronto and in Cincinatti despite not being able to reach the finals in either. If he plays like he did against Nadal in the first set of their Toronto QF, he can quite possibly beat anyone in his draw.

Del Potro: He loves the US Open, I can see him going deep in the tournament despite losing to Goffin in Cincinnati. He just needs to stay healthy for the Open and he should be another contender.

Decent Contenders: Anderson, Tsitsipas

Anderson: He had a good Toronto despite being upset by Tsitsipas, albeit he had a disappointing loss in Cincinnati. He reached the final last year, so he should be in contention to go far again this year

Tsitsipas: So many positive things for him right now. Defeating numerous top players in Toronto helped him on his way to the final, where he lost to an inform Nadal. His game can cause trouble to anyone, so I can see him getting a good run in.

Second Week Contenders/Outside Favorites: Dimitrov, Zverev, Isner

Dimitrov: He’s inconsistent but showed positive signs in his loss to Djokovic in Cincy. I can see him getting to at least the second week of the tournament with a good draw.

Zverev: Although his slam performances have been laughable, he’s still a Top 5 player and should be able to move forward with the draw he gets, unless he gets any veterans who’ll take him out (Verdasco at the French last year, for example).

Isner: His performances have been pretty poor as of late. He hasn’t been able to do much in 3 out of the 4 events he’s played. He lost to Khachanov and Querrey pretty disappointingly as well. But he’s a big server and it’s his favorite slam for obvious reasons, he should get a good draw and progress.

Small/No Chance of winning: Thiem, Kyrgios, and most of the other seeds.

Just going to bunch them all together, they have a chance to get to the second week obviously but after that they’re going to hit the big guns like Nadal and Djokovic in the 4R or QFs. At that point, it’s going to take their best tennis to have a chance. Thiem and Kyrgios haven’t been performing well as of late, although the latter tanks more than he performs. Thiem is all over the place.

Giant Killers: Wawrinka, Shapovalov, Khachanov

Wawrinka: He should be optimistic going into the US Open after his hard court season so far. Could’ve beaten both Nadal and Federer, two favorites, in Toronto and Cincinatti. Still, he may not be ready for Five set matches, but should be able to give any top seeds some issues.

Shapovalov and Khachanov: Two young players who’ll get seeded and run into some higher seeded players during the 3R and 4R. They can easily take them out by playing their best tennis. Wouldn’t be surprised if a Top 10-15 seed falls to them.

Andy Murray: Murray

Murray: Yes, there’s a whole section about Andy Murray. Why? Simple. MuryGOAT.
Interesting ideas here but there is no way any of these people will win:

  • Federer
  • Murray
  • Tsitsipas
Murray's comeback has been unsuccessful. Federer isn't strong enough any longer, and Tsitsipas isn't quite ready. He still has to learn how to contend with five set matches. I think Anderson and Djokovic are the favourites here. Don't see Nadal winning again either. He has been highly suspect this year except on clay.
 

Hamnavoe

Hall of Fame
#27
Nadal, Djokovic, Cilic and Del Potro are my four favourites, with Federer just behind. Beyond that, Anderson, Isner and Nishikori are potential semi-final candidates, and I can see Tsitsipas or Khachanov making a second week run.
 
#28
Interesting ideas here but there is no way any of these people will win:

  • Federer
  • Murray
  • Tsitsipas
Murray's comeback has been unsuccessful. Federer isn't strong enough any longer, and Tsitsipas isn't quite ready. He still has to learn how to contend with five set matches. I think Anderson and Djokovic are the favourites here. Don't see Nadal winning again either. He has been highly suspect this year except on clay.
Fed unfortunately probably will win, with an easy draw.
 
#30
Yea, making Federer a Top 3 favorite is weird but thinking about it, this and the AO 2019 may be his final chances to win one more slam, may also throw in Wimbledon 2019 for that as well, and I think Federer himself realizes it too. This may allow him a surge of confidence and let him win a slam he hasn’t won in, what, a decade?
 

weakera

Hall of Fame
#31
Yea, making Federer a Top 3 favorite is weird but thinking about it, this and the AO 2019 may be his final chances to win one more slam, may also throw in Wimbledon 2019 for that as well, and I think Federer himself realizes it too. This may allow him a surge of confidence and let him win a slam he hasn’t won in, what, a decade?
He will never win a slam with a tough draw again. Too old to string together 5+ high quality matches again.
 
#33
Interesting ideas here but there is no way any of these people will win:

  • Federer
  • Murray
  • Tsitsipas
Murray's comeback has been unsuccessful. Federer isn't strong enough any longer, and Tsitsipas isn't quite ready. He still has to learn how to contend with five set matches. I think Anderson and Djokovic are the favourites here. Don't see Nadal winning again either. He has been highly suspect this year except on clay.
How has Nadal been “highly suspect” this year. He played in 2 Hardcourt events, reached a QF in one that was a slam, and won a Masters 1000 title. Unless you consider him winning Toronto a borderline vulture, considering his SF and F opponents were kids without seeds. But before that he had to get past resurgent Stan in two tight sets and inform Cilic in three sets. Hardly suspect wouldn’t you agree?
 

roysid

Hall of Fame
#35
For the first time, Federer has conceded he's not favourite for a non-clay slam. And said that Nole and Nadal are favorites.
This might do a bit of good as he may play freely without any pressure
 

weakera

Hall of Fame
#36
For the first time, Federer has conceded he's not favourite for a non-clay slam. And said that Nole and Nadal are favorites.
This might do a bit of good as he may play freely without any pressure
For the first time? LOL. He has been playing the "I'm old, I'm never a favorite" card for YEARS.
 
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