christos_liaskos
Professional
I joined this forum in 2006 after Andre retired, but I eventually got bored of it and haven't posted for at least three years I think. Partly got bored with all the arguing. Anyways, after thinking about different players' records in slam finals, something occurred to me that I thought was worth posting in here.
There always seem to be so many complaints about how Murray "never wins", and always loses to the others in the top four and that he isn't on their level. Then it occurred to me, well yes, Andy has only ever played one of the big four (precisely Roger and Novak) in every slam final he has ever played (including the two he won against Novak - which people seem to forget when they say how terrible Andy is).
So I thought about it, who did the others in the top four (Roger, Rafa and Novak) face in their slam first slam finals, and more importantly who did they beat to break their grand slam duck?
Roger - played Mark Philipoussis to win Wimbledon back in 2003. Whilst Mark had been to slam final before, losing to Rafter in the 2008 US Open final, he hadn't had a stellar career, and wasn't a slam champion. Roger went in as the favourite, or at least he certainly wasn't playing a major force in the game, and he won his first slam in his first final. The rest is history.
Rafa - played Mariano Puerta in his first slam final back at RG in 2005. Puerta ranked in the 30's at the time and Rafa in the top 10 and already a major force on clay. Result - Rafa wins his first slam in is first final against someone who again was not a major name in the sport. The rest is history.
Novak - a slight difference here in that when he won his first title at the Aussie in 2008, it wasn't his first final, it was actually his second in a row, having lost at the 2007 US Open to Roger. But his opponent in Australia wasn't Roger or Rafa, the big names in the sport, rather a player who was just arriving on the scene at the time in Jo Wilfred Tsonga - who as we know, the very respectable professional career that he has had, he isn't on the same level as the top 4. Result - Novak won his first slam and the rest is history.
So now we get to Andy, the perennial grand slam final loser, the almost, nearly there guy, but not quite on the same level as his Roger, Novak and Rafa. So, in Andy's first final, he already faces a major hurdle, unlike Roger, Rafa and Novak did, in the form of a multiple slam champion in Federer in the 2008 US Open final. Result - Andy loses.
In his next slam final, who does Andy face? Roger again in the 2010 Aussie final - result Andy loses (murmurs and whispers start).
Third slam final - faces Novak, a slam champion already on his favourite surface in Australia, at the beginning of what is Novak's best year to date and coming off a 2010 where Novak was only second best to Rafa. Result - Andy loses (Andy can't win everyone says).
So, as we have seen Roger, Novak and Rafa managed faced fairly easy opponents in their first slam finals (relatively of course - these guys are still pros at the top of the game), whereas Andy faced slam champions, not only in his first final, but every final he has ever played. Of course there is no way of knowing for sure, but I am sure most would agree, that had Andy faced an easier opponent in one of his first slam finals, he may well have won. Then, going into a final against another one of the top 4 as a slam champion himself and not under pressure to break his duck, he may well have won more than he has done against them in finals, never mind winning other slams where he wasn't even facing them.
And there is more evidence that Rafa, Roger and Novak have had it a little easier in their careers of amassing slam titles.
Until his current barren spell of not winning a slam, the longest Roger had been without winning a title previously was going into Wimbledon 2012, two and half years since his previous slam - his opponent? Murray, already under so much pressure having yet to win his first slam and huge home pressure to win Wimbledon. Result - Roger win.
Novak's longest barren spell is between his wins at the Aussie in 2008 and 2011. Who did he face to break his run without a slam? Murray, who had already lost his first two slam finals at that point and had yet to taste victory so was still not relieved of the pressure. Result - Novak wins and goes on his best year to date.
Going into the French Open of 2010, Rafa had had a tough year in 2009, despite beating Roger to win his first Aussie, he had lost for the first time at RG and then struggled with injury for the rest of the year. So, what better way to build confidence and to go on to have your best year to date in 2010 than play an opponent who hadn't won a slam and wasn't on the same level as Roger and Novak. Playing Soderling in the French final, Rafa takes the win and goes on amazing run in 2010 and in 2011 is just as good except Novak steps ahead.
So, Roger, Rafa and Novak have not only won their first slams against lesser opponents in the finals that they played, once they had suffered set back and losses of confidence, they broke barren spells by again facing opponents without their own slam titles.
Its worth taking this even further in suggesting that the first win for Roger came on his favourite surface - grass, and his win to break his barren spell - on his favourite surface of grass.
Rafa won his first title on his favourite surface - clay, and broke his barren streak on, clay.
Novak won his first title on his favourite surface, a slow hard court in Australia, and his second slam to break his barren spell? Back down under again in Austrialia.
In all these cases against lesser opponents, not at the level of the big four. Of course in the case of the surfaces the argument could be made that well, Andy should have a specialist surface. The point is though that everything fell in place for Roger, Rafa and Novak, whereas it clearly hasn't done for Andy.
Had Murray had better luck in who he had played in finals, I believe he would have won titles in Australia, Wimbledon and the US Open had he played anyone other than the rest of the top four. This would of course have increased his slam count and would also have given him more confidence when going into those finals against Roger, Novak and Rafa. Instead, he really did break new ground by managing to break his duck by beating Novak in both his slam wins. Del Potro and Wawrinka are the only other guys outside the top four to beat one of them in a final, but haven't exactly been able to join them at the top of the game. Wawrinka is the only one to win a Masters in addition.
Which takes me on to one more, final, point. Novak's first win in a Masters Series? Miami (slow hard) 2007 against Guillermo Canas. Rafa's first win in a Masters? Monte Carlo (clay) 2005 against Guillermo Coria. Roger's first Masters win? Hamburg 2002 against Safin - admittedly a tough opponent in the shape of a slam champion and former no1. Andy's first win? Against Novak in Cincy in 2008.
So, I think it can be seen here that Andy is far from a headcase and less talented even than the other top guys. He's just been extremely unlucky in many cases. And in order to break his duck he has had to beat the best, and he has managed to stay up there with them.
Anyways, long post for my first one back in a few years. If you have made it this far, discuss
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There always seem to be so many complaints about how Murray "never wins", and always loses to the others in the top four and that he isn't on their level. Then it occurred to me, well yes, Andy has only ever played one of the big four (precisely Roger and Novak) in every slam final he has ever played (including the two he won against Novak - which people seem to forget when they say how terrible Andy is).
So I thought about it, who did the others in the top four (Roger, Rafa and Novak) face in their slam first slam finals, and more importantly who did they beat to break their grand slam duck?
Roger - played Mark Philipoussis to win Wimbledon back in 2003. Whilst Mark had been to slam final before, losing to Rafter in the 2008 US Open final, he hadn't had a stellar career, and wasn't a slam champion. Roger went in as the favourite, or at least he certainly wasn't playing a major force in the game, and he won his first slam in his first final. The rest is history.
Rafa - played Mariano Puerta in his first slam final back at RG in 2005. Puerta ranked in the 30's at the time and Rafa in the top 10 and already a major force on clay. Result - Rafa wins his first slam in is first final against someone who again was not a major name in the sport. The rest is history.
Novak - a slight difference here in that when he won his first title at the Aussie in 2008, it wasn't his first final, it was actually his second in a row, having lost at the 2007 US Open to Roger. But his opponent in Australia wasn't Roger or Rafa, the big names in the sport, rather a player who was just arriving on the scene at the time in Jo Wilfred Tsonga - who as we know, the very respectable professional career that he has had, he isn't on the same level as the top 4. Result - Novak won his first slam and the rest is history.
So now we get to Andy, the perennial grand slam final loser, the almost, nearly there guy, but not quite on the same level as his Roger, Novak and Rafa. So, in Andy's first final, he already faces a major hurdle, unlike Roger, Rafa and Novak did, in the form of a multiple slam champion in Federer in the 2008 US Open final. Result - Andy loses.
In his next slam final, who does Andy face? Roger again in the 2010 Aussie final - result Andy loses (murmurs and whispers start).
Third slam final - faces Novak, a slam champion already on his favourite surface in Australia, at the beginning of what is Novak's best year to date and coming off a 2010 where Novak was only second best to Rafa. Result - Andy loses (Andy can't win everyone says).
So, as we have seen Roger, Novak and Rafa managed faced fairly easy opponents in their first slam finals (relatively of course - these guys are still pros at the top of the game), whereas Andy faced slam champions, not only in his first final, but every final he has ever played. Of course there is no way of knowing for sure, but I am sure most would agree, that had Andy faced an easier opponent in one of his first slam finals, he may well have won. Then, going into a final against another one of the top 4 as a slam champion himself and not under pressure to break his duck, he may well have won more than he has done against them in finals, never mind winning other slams where he wasn't even facing them.
And there is more evidence that Rafa, Roger and Novak have had it a little easier in their careers of amassing slam titles.
Until his current barren spell of not winning a slam, the longest Roger had been without winning a title previously was going into Wimbledon 2012, two and half years since his previous slam - his opponent? Murray, already under so much pressure having yet to win his first slam and huge home pressure to win Wimbledon. Result - Roger win.
Novak's longest barren spell is between his wins at the Aussie in 2008 and 2011. Who did he face to break his run without a slam? Murray, who had already lost his first two slam finals at that point and had yet to taste victory so was still not relieved of the pressure. Result - Novak wins and goes on his best year to date.
Going into the French Open of 2010, Rafa had had a tough year in 2009, despite beating Roger to win his first Aussie, he had lost for the first time at RG and then struggled with injury for the rest of the year. So, what better way to build confidence and to go on to have your best year to date in 2010 than play an opponent who hadn't won a slam and wasn't on the same level as Roger and Novak. Playing Soderling in the French final, Rafa takes the win and goes on amazing run in 2010 and in 2011 is just as good except Novak steps ahead.
So, Roger, Rafa and Novak have not only won their first slams against lesser opponents in the finals that they played, once they had suffered set back and losses of confidence, they broke barren spells by again facing opponents without their own slam titles.
Its worth taking this even further in suggesting that the first win for Roger came on his favourite surface - grass, and his win to break his barren spell - on his favourite surface of grass.
Rafa won his first title on his favourite surface - clay, and broke his barren streak on, clay.
Novak won his first title on his favourite surface, a slow hard court in Australia, and his second slam to break his barren spell? Back down under again in Austrialia.
In all these cases against lesser opponents, not at the level of the big four. Of course in the case of the surfaces the argument could be made that well, Andy should have a specialist surface. The point is though that everything fell in place for Roger, Rafa and Novak, whereas it clearly hasn't done for Andy.
Had Murray had better luck in who he had played in finals, I believe he would have won titles in Australia, Wimbledon and the US Open had he played anyone other than the rest of the top four. This would of course have increased his slam count and would also have given him more confidence when going into those finals against Roger, Novak and Rafa. Instead, he really did break new ground by managing to break his duck by beating Novak in both his slam wins. Del Potro and Wawrinka are the only other guys outside the top four to beat one of them in a final, but haven't exactly been able to join them at the top of the game. Wawrinka is the only one to win a Masters in addition.
Which takes me on to one more, final, point. Novak's first win in a Masters Series? Miami (slow hard) 2007 against Guillermo Canas. Rafa's first win in a Masters? Monte Carlo (clay) 2005 against Guillermo Coria. Roger's first Masters win? Hamburg 2002 against Safin - admittedly a tough opponent in the shape of a slam champion and former no1. Andy's first win? Against Novak in Cincy in 2008.
So, I think it can be seen here that Andy is far from a headcase and less talented even than the other top guys. He's just been extremely unlucky in many cases. And in order to break his duck he has had to beat the best, and he has managed to stay up there with them.
Anyways, long post for my first one back in a few years. If you have made it this far, discuss