The Ruud Awakening!

Joseph_K

Professional
A varied run of matches for Casper Ruud these days as he has gone from the U.S. Open in New York to last weekend's Davis Cup in Oslo (where Norway beat Uzbekistan 3-1 to reach the qualifiers in November), to next weekend's Laver Cup in Boston before heading to Indian Wells for next month's Masters Series 1000 tournament.

The Norwegian is currently no. 8 in the Race to Turin (really no. 7 as the player occupying that position Rafael Nadal, has withdrawn from the circuit for the rest of the season), and has virtually no points to defend for the rest of 2021.
 

Joseph_K

Professional
No. 2 seed Casper Ruud plays his first match at the San Diego tournament on Thursday evening when he takes on the wildcard Andy Murray. This will be a first meeting between the two players.
 

flyingboris

Legend
OK, took me two weeks to notice, but wow, top 10 for Ruud, impressive! Consider me Ruudly awakened.

In 3 hours this newly minted top 10 player will face Full Metal Murray in San Diego. Interesting match up.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
I thought Ruud looked surprisingly aggressive out there against Murray. He is becoming a better mover on HC. Impressed by his hard work and great attitude. Would be fun to see him at WTF. Still think he has a good shot at most improving player of the year. From 27 to 9. Those are pretty hard steps. From 53 to 9 in two years.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
ATP says in the video description: "Casper Ruud has had a stunning 2021 on the ATP Tour. At one point, he won back-to-back-to-back titles! Now, he's eyeing a spot at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. This is what motivates the best player from Norway."
 

fundrazer

Legend
I thought Ruud looked surprisingly aggressive out there against Murray. He is becoming a better mover on HC. Impressed by his hard work and great attitude. Would be fun to see him at WTF. Still think he has a good shot at most improving player of the year. From 27 to 9. Those are pretty hard steps. From 53 to 9 in two years.
I think sometimes what gets misunderstood is that just because his best surface is clay does not mean that he's a grinder. Yeah, he can grind when he needs to, but he's always looking to rip forehands. Impressed with his improvement this year for sure. It's hard for me to rate him...but I do think is hard court game now is maybe at top 15 level. It's kind of a big step up from there though to top 10. He's gotten beaten pretty badly by both Tsitsipas and Zverev on hard courts this summer.

Main thing that we usually mention with him though is the potential for him to get exploited on returns because of how far back he plays. He's a little closer to the baseline on first serves, but he does open himself up to getting serve and volley on or dropshotted.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
I think sometimes what gets misunderstood is that just because his best surface is clay does not mean that he's a grinder. Yeah, he can grind when he needs to, but he's always looking to rip forehands. Impressed with his improvement this year for sure. It's hard for me to rate him...but I do think is hard court game now is maybe at top 15 level. It's kind of a big step up from there though to top 10. He's gotten beaten pretty badly by both Tsitsipas and Zverev on hard courts this summer.

Main thing that we usually mention with him though is the potential for him to get exploited on returns because of how far back he plays. He's a little closer to the baseline on first serves, but he does open himself up to getting serve and volley on or dropshotted.
He's rated 23rd by Tennis Abstract (hElo) right now, but in a mass of players that are all virtually even, so that top 15 level is closer to accurate than people might think. He's not okay on hardcourts, he's actually good. He's just not great, like you said with the big step up in class of the top 8 or so players.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
I think sometimes what gets misunderstood is that just because his best surface is clay does not mean that he's a grinder. Yeah, he can grind when he needs to, but he's always looking to rip forehands. Impressed with his improvement this year for sure. It's hard for me to rate him...but I do think is hard court game now is maybe at top 15 level. It's kind of a big step up from there though to top 10. He's gotten beaten pretty badly by both Tsitsipas and Zverev on hard courts this summer.

Main thing that we usually mention with him though is the potential for him to get exploited on returns because of how far back he plays. He's a little closer to the baseline on first serves, but he does open himself up to getting serve and volley on or dropshotted.
True, yet he actually beat Tsitsipas in straight sets right before RG, but played a very tentative match against Fokina. His improved movement and serve are what has impressed me.

I am still surprised he is a top 10 player, but he is working hard and has one of the best attitudes on tour IMO.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
Good match against the best grunter of the next gen, Sonego. A landgang (breadstick) and a Jimbo skyhook in the first set. Grigorgeous next.
 

Joseph_K

Professional
Yes, another superbly confident performance from no. 2 seed Casper Ruud against Lorenzo Sonego in quarter-final action in San Diego on Friday night. The Norwegian was already leading 6-1, 3-1 when the Italian began to find some form, but by then it was too late.

At 3-4 in the second set Sonego had two break points in what would be the longest game of the match, but Ruud saved one with a forehand winner down the Italian’s backhand side and the other with a serve which Sonego couldn’t control. At 5-4, Ruud hit some more unreturnable serves for game, set and match. Final Score: 6-1, 6-4.

In Saturday’s semi-finals Casper Ruud will play Grigor Dimitrov for the first time.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
Casper Ruud has passed Roger Federer in the live rankings this morning. We'll have to see where he lands, post-tournament, but he might be moving ahead in the rankings again.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Well he overshot my expectations so far this season.

First I share with you the opinion on his spinny forehand, there are few others which can compare with it in terms of weight and height. Shapo suffered greatly from it similar to his duel against Felix…

His return % has improved over the years and especially in 2021 but for a clay specialist it isn‘t that high. Compared to the new gen like Sinner, Musetti and Alacaraz he has a forte in his service game which is to expected due to his age. For me this profile combined with his hard work despite a heavy shot indicates a lower peak elo.

Still he can do very well indeed and one of the reasons is that he is still improving.
....


Also from the vestigue du jour, which shows you a hardcourt. Sadly we don't have as many data points easily available as we should but Ruud has without any doubt on of the heaviest combinations of spin and speed on clay of the tour. He his a bit Nadalish in this regard...

Of course his approach trades off other elements but it can be devastating in the right circumstances.

His strokes are still heavy and he has improved in his serve game and can increasingly dominate them while also returning better. A clear example of a virtous spiral as he now enters his likely peak years.


Tour-Level Seasons Top
Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.
Year​
W​
L​
Win%​
Set%​
Game%​
TB W-L​
TB%​
MS​
Hld%​
Brk%​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
SPW​
RPW​
TPW​
DR​
Best​
2021
45​
13​
77.6%​
71.2%​
57.7%​
10-7​
58.8%​
56​
85.9%​
28.4%​
7.0%​
2.8%​
64.3%​
74.0%​
57.3%​
68.1%​
39.8%​
53.6%​
1.25​
W (5x)
2020
22​
13​
62.9%​
57.3%​
53.7%​
4-9​
30.8%​
35​
84.3%​
23.5%​
5.3%​
2.3%​
67.2%​
71.1%​
55.3%​
65.9%​
37.3%​
51.4%​
1.09​
W (Buenos Aires)
2019
22​
17​
56.4%​
52.7%​
52.5%​
4-7​
36.4%​
37​
79.6%​
23.2%​
4.7%​
4.5%​
64.8%​
70.4%​
52.1%​
63.9%​
36.4%​
50.7%​
1.01​
F (Houston)
2018
6​
9​
40.0%​
41.5%​
49.4%​
1-4​
20.0%​
15​
78.0%​
20.4%​
6.7%​
2.9%​
64.9%​
68.7%​
49.0%​
61.8%​
35.7%​
49.3%​
0.93​
QF (Bastad)
2017
7​
9​
43.8%​
47.4%​
49.7%​
2-3​
40.0%​
16​
79.6%​
19.4%​
4.9%​
3.1%​
66.4%​
67.8%​
51.3%​
62.3%​
35.3%​
49.1%​
0.93​
SF (Rio de Janeiro)
2016
1​
2​
33.3%​
28.6%​
43.1%​
0-1​
0.0%​
3​
71.0%​
18.2%​
9.4%​
5.3%​
63.2%​
68.5%​
54.0%​
63.2%​
29.9%​
45.4%​
0.81​
Career
103​
63​
62.0%​
58.0%​
53.8%​
21-31​
40.4%​
162​
82.5%​
24.3%​
5.9%​
3.1%​
65.3%​
71.2%​
54.1%​
65.3%​
37.5%​
51.4%​
1.08​
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Nice stats ^^^ but buzzkill time: on 1 September (36 days ago) he lost USO 2R to qualifier Botic van de Zandschulp. His biggest HC win would be the Dimitrov SF last week, a great level from both. Hopefully that level is maintained.

Charts don’t easily show the level of competition he faces. The HC play is not a complete project; still much to refine to really challenge the few left ranke above him. At least he’s not quitting after two sets down at a slam or defaulting before a QF at a 500.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Yeah, it was not all smooth sailing but he really did better then I expected. He seemed to underperform on relative to his stats and strokes but this year he is really a force. His career and set win% on hard is really shockingly low even with his fine run and this despite having a better serve then the current crop of youngsters. He is not an elite returner but has upped his game there considerably while.

Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top

Split​
M​
W​
L​
Win%​
Set W-L​
Set%​
Game W-L​
Game%​
TB W-L​
TB%​
MS​
Hld%​
Brk%​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
SPW​
RPW​
TPW​
DR​
Hard
22​
14​
8​
63.6%​
34-21​
61.8%​
288-241​
54.4%​
2-5​
28.6%​
21​
85.7%​
23.2%​
8.8%​
2.6%​
65.0%​
74.4%​
56.0%​
68.0%​
36.2%​
52.1%​
1.13​
Clay
38​
31​
7​
81.6%​
66-25​
72.5%​
491-350​
58.4%​
7-2​
77.8%​
37​
84.2%​
31.1%​
5.2%​
2.8%​
63.7%​
71.3%​
59.0%​
66.8%​
42.0%​
53.9%​
1.27​
Grass
4​
2​
2​
50.0%​
6-5​
54.5%​
57-54​
51.4%​
1-2​
33.3%​
4​
83.9%​
18.5%​
6.1%​
4.3%​
66.8%​
76.7%​
48.6%​
67.4%​
33.1%​
50.5%​
1.02​


Career Tour-Level Splits Top

Split​
M​
W​
L​
Win%​
Set W-L​
Set%​
Game W-L​
Game%​
TB W-L​
TB%​
MS​
Hld%​
Brk%​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
SPW​
RPW​
TPW​
DR​
Hard
55​
25​
30​
45.5%​
65-77​
45.8%​
693-693​
50.0%​
3-18​
14.3%​
54​
81.6%​
19.0%​
6.9%​
3.1%​
65.6%​
71.4%​
52.5%​
64.9%​
34.4%​
49.9%​
0.98​
Clay
105​
75​
30​
71.4%​
161-85​
65.4%​
1310-1022​
56.2%​
17-10​
63.0%​
102​
82.7%​
28.0%​
5.3%​
3.1%​
65.0%​
70.8%​
55.2%​
65.3%​
39.6%​
52.4%​
1.14​
Grass
5​
2​
3​
40.0%​
6-8​
42.9%​
70-73​
49.0%​
1-3​
25.0%​
5​
84.7%​
14.3%​
6.5%​
5.5%​
67.4%​
77.6%​
49.3%​
68.3%​
30.7%​
49.6%​
0.97​


As you said those stats lack the quality of the opposition but his Elo ranking has also reached his highest ever. To be honest I don't see in him quite the same potentials as in other younger players but it is always great to see guys like him doing well.
 

Joseph_K

Professional
A convincing win for Casper Ruud, the no. 6 seed, against the Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena in second-round action in Indian Wells earlier on Saturday. The Norwegian won 6-1, 6-2 in little more than an hour and next faces either the no. 26 seed, Lloyd Harris of South Africa, or another unseeded Spaniard, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Break balls, big points. Ruud got one point but two breaks more while Harris converted none of his eight...

"It was a very tough match and I was fortunate to get through in the end,” Ruud said in his on-court interview. “There were only some points here and there that decided this match. I saved a lot of break points and in crucial points I stepped up my game.

“It was frustrating because Lloyd was playing well and I was not really feeling the groove like I felt in the first match and in the end I was fortunate to get through.”
Those are the kind of victories which smell especially sweet and the kind of losses which taste especially bitter for the opponent. Overall Ruud is still on his best hard court streak of his life...
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Recent Results All results | Top
Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions.
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Rd​
Rk​
vRk​
Score​
DR​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
BPSvd​
Time​
04-Oct-2021Indian WellsHardR16
10​
15​
(6)Ruud vs (11)Diego Sebastian Schwartzman [ARG]
04-Oct-2021Indian WellsHardR32
10​
31​
(6)Ruud d. (26)Lloyd George Muirhead Harris [RSA]6-7(4) 6-4 6-4
0.86​
1.6%​
3.2%​
60.8%​
72.4%​
53.1%​
8/8​
2:51​
04-Oct-2021Indian WellsHardR64
10​
81​
(6)Ruud d. Roberto Carballes Baena [ESP]6-1 6-2
2.56​
12.2%​
2.4%​
63.4%​
80.8%​
80.0%​
1/1​
1:11​

A dominance ration (DR*) of 0.86 is among the lowest ones for a win which I have ever seen...

* percentage of return points won divided by percentage of service points lost..
 
Last edited:

morten

Hall of Fame
He even got a spectator to leave the court, as the spectator was clapping and chearing at his mistakes, even his double faults.. very rare to see. But it was the right thing.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
Casper has looked in-control in his two previous matches against Diego Schwartzman this season -- can he make it a hat-trick?

A dominance ration (DR*) of 0.86 is among the lowest ones for a win which I have ever seen...

* percentage of return points won divided by percentage of service points lost..
Someone once managed to shamelessly steal a Wimbledon final with a 0.87 DR -- guess who/when!:whistle:

 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Time to go back to sleep, Casper. Probably tired from the Harris marathon, even with the day off. That match took 2:50 minutes to play the 221 points.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Well Diego proved an opponent to tough, likely because Ruud also ran out a bit of steam. ..

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions.
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Rd​
Rk​
vRk​
Score​
DR​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
BPSvd​
Time​
04-Oct-2021Indian WellsHardR16
10​
15​
(11)Diego Sebastian Schwartzman [ARG] d. (6)Ruud6-3 6-3
0.71​
1.5%​
0.0%​
63.1%​
56.1%​
45.8%​
3/7​
1:43​
04-Oct-2021Indian WellsHardR32
10​
31​
(6)Ruud d. (26)Lloyd George Muirhead Harris [RSA]6-7(4) 6-4 6-4
0.86​
1.6%​
3.2%​
60.8%​
72.4%​
53.1%​
8/8​
2:51​
04-Oct-2021Indian WellsHardR64
10​
81​
(6)Ruud d. Roberto Carballes Baena [ESP]6-1 6-2
2.56​
12.2%​
2.4%​
63.4%​
80.8%​
80.0%​
1/1​
1:1​
 

Joseph_K

Professional
An interesting first-round match at next week's tournament in Vienna pits Casper Ruud, the no. 4 seed, against the South African Lloyd Harris. Both players have been enjoying their best season on the tour this year and when they met in Indian Wells a few weeks ago the Norwegian came through only by 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4.

In the above-mentioned encounter Harris did everything but win the final point against an opponent who struggled on serve throughout and needed all his recent won confidence to get over the finishing line. In his next match, in the fourth round in Indian Wells, Ruud lost easily to Diego Schwartzman who in the quarter-finals fell to Cameron Norrie, 6-0, 6-2, the same score by which Ruud had beaten Norrie in the final in San Diego at the beginning of October.

Casper Ruud is now no. 7 in the ATP Race to Milan, so would improve his chances of qualifying even more by a good run this coming week in Vienna.
 
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stringertom

Bionic Poster
Hope Casper awakens to improve his 2-6 main draw career record indoors at full field ATP level competitions. By beating Opelka at LC (not part of the tally) he reached 50% of his win count since moving up from Futures/Challengers in late 2019.

Harris 1R on a decent paced HC is going to be a tough ask. Until Sinner neutralized Harris in the Antwerp SFs the South African was averaging more than 9 aces per match and was broken just once in 6 straight sets he won to reach QFs.
 

Joseph_K

Professional
Another close encounter between Casper Ruud and Lloyd Harris earlier on Tuesday, indoors in Vienna. These two players have quite similar games, built around a very good serve and an excellent forehand, and there isn’t really much to choose between them during the course of a match. That was the case during their match in Indian Wells a few weeks ago and again today in Vienna.

Perhaps the key difference in the end is Ruud’s greater mental strength. That was certainly the case today, when the first set looked certain to end in a tiebreak. But serving at 5-6 and 30-0 ahead in the twelfth game, Lloyd Harris fell apart and lost four points in a row and the set with some very careless play. The second set did end in a tiebreak, and here Ruud was never behind, his greater class showing as he took it by 7 points to 2, and the match 7-5, 7-6(2).
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
Another close encounter between Casper Ruud and Lloyd Harris earlier on Tuesday, indoors in Vienna. These two players have quite similar games, built around a very good serve and an excellent forehand, and there isn’t really much to choose between them during the course of a match. That was the case during their match in Indian Wells a few weeks ago and again today in Vienna.

Perhaps the key difference in the end is Ruud’s greater mental strength. That was certainly the case today, when the first set looked certain to end in a tiebreak. But serving at 5-6 and 30-0 ahead in the twelfth game, Lloyd Harris fell apart and lost four points in a row and the set with some very careless play. The second set did end in a tiebreak, and here Ruud was never behind, his greater class showing as he took it by 7 points to 2, and the match 7-5, 7-6(2).
Strong mental match by Ruud, hope he can go far and ensure a place in the ATP finals!
 

Joseph_K

Professional
The quarter-final between Casper Ruud and Jannik Sinner is about to get underway in Vienna. Both players are in with a chance of qualifying for Turin. There only previous meeting also occurred in Vienna, in the third round one year ago, and was won by the Italian, 7-6(2), 6-3.

Strong mental match by Ruud, hope he can go far and ensure a place in the ATP finals!
 

Joseph_K

Professional
The race to Turin is almost over, but a handful or so of players are still left in with a chance of qualifying with only two weeks to go. One of them is Casper Ruud, who is currently in seventh position in the race, the six players ahead of him having already qualified.

Later on Tuesday the Norwegian continues his qualifying campaign at the Masters Series 1000 tournament in Paris, where he is the no. 6 seed in the singles event. His opponent will be the unpredictable Kazakh Alexander Bublik, whom Ruud leads 2-0 in their head-to-head.
 
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Wesling

New User
bublik dispatched, probably schwartzman coming up... which is a player Ruud should handle really, he is short with a weak serve - good baseline play and a great point constructor but lacks firepower and a serve which is what Ruuds weakness is ( like most of the new Gen, ROS )
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
bublik dispatched, probably schwartzman coming up... which is a player Ruud should handle really, he is short with a weak serve - good baseline play and a great point constructor but lacks firepower and a serve which is what Ruuds weakness is ( like most of the new Gen, ROS )
And yet Diego leads the series 5-2. Let's see if he can push that to 6-2.
 

Wesling

New User
he is an older player many of their meetings are older, when Ruud was a journeyman teenager. as you say, lets see.
Ruud need to show up in M1ks, im a norwegian and a fan but hes been dire in slams
 

Joseph_K

Professional
Casper Ruud drew the short straw in Paris on Tuesday, and had to begin his first match, against Alexander Bublik, when it was practically Wednesday. Fortunately for the Norwegian, he was able to dispatch the Kazakh very easily, 6-4, 6-0. Ruud should therefore be fresh later today for his third-round match against the 28-year-old American Marcus Giron, who yesterday did the Norwegian a favour by beating Diego Schwartzman in the second round. Ruud and Giron have not played each other before.

With ten days to go, Casper Ruud, has, it might be said, one foot in Turin. A late run by Hubert Hurkacz is making things more interesting than they might have been, while the defeats this week of Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie has made it slightly easier for the Norwegian. Hurkacz, Sinner and Norrie have all entered the singles event at next week’s final qualifying tournament in Stockholm, but so has Casper Ruud...
 
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