The season a player turns 23

[ActualTennisPlayer]

It seems like in the modern era in that season the champions make a massive improvement and start their prime.

Let’s first start with the last four of the AO2024 tournament:
- sinner: he is turning 23 this season and he is making it special already
- medvedev: he was very mediocre until his 2019 US hard court swing, which happened in the season he turned 23
- Zverev: he was terrible at slams until 2020, the season he turned 23
- Djokovic: his official breakthrough season was in 2011, when he turned 24. however, he had a great USOpen 2010 run, beating Fed and only getting stopped by prime Nadal, and he had DC win… so even for Djokovic his prime started in the season he turned 23 (at the end of 2010).

Let’s look at other recent slam winners:
- thiem: 2016 is the first time he made the second week (semis) at slams.
- wawrinka: he made a big jump in winning % and ranking in 2008.
- Nadal: first time he won a hard court slam (AO2009). he then got injured so he only dominated the tour in 2010.
- Federer: he started dominating the tour in 2004.
(- Murray: like Novak I think his prime started in 2011, when he turned 24)

 

[weakera]

Also LeBron's 23-24 season was his first MVP

 

[nolefam_2024]

Most players made slam finals after turning 23 in last decade and half.

When will rune make the first slam final

There are far too many players who didn't make slam final until they are 23/24. Even sinner made his first slam final in 2024 AO after turning 22. Zverev made it when he turned 23. Tsitsipas when he turned 23. Rune is portrayed to be part of the next triumvirate including Raz and Sinner. But...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

23 is finally a year when players are physically strong enough. That's why I thought Nole had some time before rune Raz and Sinner get better but sinner seems to be ahead of the curve and already winning slam and being dominant. His 2024 AO run till the final was one of the most dominant runs by non big 3 guys ever. He didn't even lose a set in first five matches and didn't get broken in 6th barely losing in TB

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Also LeBron's 23-24 season was his first MVP

Same with Giannis.

NBA Mvp Age Last 20 Seasons | StatMuse

Steve Nash was 30 years old in 2004-05.

www.statmuse.com

 

[ibbi]

It's not just a 'modern era' thing, whatever you mean by that. Until the numbers started to skew upwards in the 2010s, the average age of slam champions in the entire Open era ranged from 23 1⁄2 at Roland Garros to 25 at the Australian Open. That period is historically the prime.

(Since 2010 those numbers are up to 27 1⁄2 at the US Open to 30 at Roland Garros)

 

[MichaelNadal]

23 was such a good year for me lol. 24 was ass.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

It's not just a 'modern era' thing, whatever you mean by that. Until the numbers started to skew upwards in the 2010s, the average age of slam champions in the entire Open era ranged from 23 1⁄2 at Roland Garros to 25 at the Australian Open. That period is historically the prime.

(Since 2010 those numbers are up to 27 1⁄2 at the US Open to 30 at Roland Garros)

My point is that in the season they turn 23 they make a jump in quality and start their prime. So the prime is from 22/23 until year X (not debating the end point).

If the average age to win a slam is 24, then the middle of the prime is at 24. So for example the prime is from 20-28 or 22-26.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Most players made slam finals after turning 23 in last decade and half.

When will rune make the first slam final

There are far too many players who didn't make slam final until they are 23/24. Even sinner made his first slam final in 2024 AO after turning 22. Zverev made it when he turned 23. Tsitsipas when he turned 23. Rune is portrayed to be part of the next triumvirate including Raz and Sinner. But...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

23 is finally a year when players are physically strong enough. That's why I thought Nole had some time before rune Raz and Sinner get better but sinner seems to be ahead of the curve and already winning slam and being dominant. His 2024 AO run till the final was one of the most dominant runs by non big 3 guys ever. He didn't even lose a set in first five matches and didn't get broken in 6th barely losing in TB

I agree with most of what you say, except that Sinner is ahead of the curve. The year a player turns 23 is the year where the jump happens (see my first post). So it is this year when it was supposed to happen for sinner (but you could say it didn’t need to happen at AO this year but at WC or us open this year)

Rune and Alcaraz will probably have a big jump in 2026. I can imagine from that year these three than dominate the tour totally.

This year and next year (and if lucky the first slams in 2026) will be probably the last chances of Med, Zed and tsitsipas to win a slam.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Rune will never win a slam.

 

[Rovesciarete]

From this reddit post Paxx17:

​

Elo ratings (skill levels) of Big 3: a) by year, and b) by age:​

Alcaraz followed roughly Djokovic top his first peak, Sinner more Federer.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Rune will never win a slam.

Too early to tell, wait till the season he turns 23 - he will make a big jump then