The Slam Race is drawing to a close

Krish0608

Hall of Fame
#1
This USO was crucial for Rafa in his quest to overtake Federer. Now the difference between them remains 3 GS, the same since 2014. I know Rafa can still win a couple more RGs(at max) and maybe eke out a USO going ahead, but I don't see him catch Federer, here on. The field is getting tougher and he's getting older. I don't put it past him though, but this USO was crucial.
 
#2
The AO QF and the USO SF...both resulted in Nadal having to quit mid-match. Away from that, Nadal had to contend with some serious heavyweight hitters in his draw. Karan Khachanov and Dominic Thiem both put him through the grinder. To beat Thiem, Del Potro and Djokovic back to back to back is a tall order for anyone.
 

Dilexson

Hall of Fame
#4
Doesn't change anything really, it will be the same scenario once AO19 starts.
Except he'll be fresher this time around. Have a feeling he won't wear himself out in the chase for YE #1 like he did last year.(Obviously better scheduling this year, i hope he's learned his lesson)
 
#5
Assuming Roger is finally done, I'd say Federer is still likely to retain his record by the end of next season if Rafa doesn't add 2 slams in 2019. He needs to keep winning at RG and he needs to score another slam(s) away from dirt. Winning at RG alone won't cut it because he isn't likely to win 4 more times there. (I could see him winning 2 though, 2 of the next 3 probably) . Not to mention it won't look great if all 4 were to be RG, but doesn't matter because like I said doubt he would be able to do it that way anyway.

I still think his chance to do it is decent because it was Novak who stopped him at Wimbledon and you could argue he was quite likely effectively a point or 2 away from the title. (Key word effectively before people get mad lol)

As good as Novak is playing and I would tend to favor him over Rafa anywhere but dirt when both are in decent forms for the rest of their career, Rafa can easily score a win as the slight underdog in future matches vs. Novak. Without Novak in the picture he won 2 slams in 2017 and might have been 3 if Federer wasn't in the picture, so depends on Roger too going forward.

I'd say its around 50/50 now. He wasn't playing that well this tournament IMO, almost got knocked out by Thiem and just generally didn't look as good as at Wimbledon. He's gonna have more of those "meh" tournaments going forwards because of age I think and his form has always varied away from the red stuff. What it's going to come down to I think is taking the opportunities when they're there at the slams off clay; when he's in good form and playing near his best and clearly a class above the rest apart from Novak (or Roger if Fed has more left in the tank). He's failed twice in that scenario in 2017 AO And 2018 WIM SF ( which was probably a defacto final).

I think the slam chase for Rafa will come down to defeating Novak again in a slam (that isn't RG) final or semifinal when he's zoning. At least once and maybe twice over the rest of their careers. I think he'll have a few chances at that but might struggle getting over the line. Can he do it? Maybe.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
#7
Yes, I agree it’s really interesting.

I think Roger is now done.

Rafa will get to 19.

Novak is the wild card. I’ll say 18.
I see it a bit differently. 2019, I think Roger wins 1 slam (AO > WB), with a small chance for 2. It sounds out there right now, but my gut tells me so. Mary Carillo (edit: Mary Jo Fernandez, thx @BeatlesFan for the correction :) ) says Roger was unwell at the conclusion of the Millman match and it took him a while to even lie down to breathe normally after coming off court.

He'll look back at WB and USO as missed chances. He'll work extra hard on his game in the off-season and will be focused at AO19. He's also the 2-time defending champ. Not much more motivation needed.

Final slam count, imo:
Fed: 22
Ned: 19
Djed: 17
 
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Rafa24

Hall of Fame
#8
Losing to djoker in wimbledon was crushing. He had so many chances, roof debacle etc.

Then the injury here. **** luck but that happens to Rafa a lot.
 
#13
Time to start looking back at predictions from 4 or 5 years ago, then think about how accurate they were.

AngieB was going on and on about Novak "#majoring in #minors". She got banned, so you can't search her name, but it was relentless.

Then Novak went on his tear, eventually holding all four majors and looking like he would never lose again.

Fed was dismissed as unlikely to ever win something big again. And Nadal. Then Novak fell at the end of 2016, and people here said his career was done.

Almost everyone has been wrong about almost everything almost every time.

I think it's more likely none of the Big Three are done, and the likelihood of each of them adding to their slam lists is probably more linked to age than anything else.
 
#14
If Djoko wins here, I can imagine this guy to go for 2015 in 2019 and another NCYGS. It seems that his injury is gone as well as private problems, plus birth of the second child is now finally finished. That will make Ralph's job a lot, lot tougher. Gone is the time of late 2016, 2017 and the beginning of 2018 when Novak was injured allowing Nadal and Federer to vulture and feast on his legitimate GOAT legacy that was planned in 2017 and 18.
 
#16
This USO was crucial for Rafa in his quest to overtake Federer. Now the difference between them remains 3 GS, the same since 2014. I know Rafa can still win a couple more RGs(at max) and maybe eke out a USO going ahead, but I don't see him catch Federer, here on. The field is getting tougher and he's getting older. I don't put it past him though, but this USO was crucial.
Nadal has a good 3-4 yrs but Federer is happy and done with 20

The best fed will do is semi or qtf
 
#19
The problem for Nadal is that he pretty much has to do it in French Opens. In the last 8 years he's won 2 slams off clay and now has broken down in his last two hard court slams. Djokovic still has some hope but is a long way behind given he's only 1 year younger than Nadal. For him to claim the record he needs to be very dominant over the next 18 months. He'd probably have to win 5 of the next 7 then jag 3 late career slams spread over a few seasons.
 
#20
If Djoko wins this he is a bigger threat than Rafa imo. He will be the favourite in 3/4 slams.

Anyway, i said after AO18 that the race was most likely over and i stand by that.
 
#21
If Djoko wins here, I can imagine this guy to go for 2015 in 2019 and another NCYGS. It seems that his injury is gone as well as private problems, plus birth of the second child is now finally finished. That will make Ralph's job a lot, lot tougher. Gone is the time of late 2016, 2017 and the beginning of 2018 when Novak was injured allowing Nadal and Federer to vulture and feast on his legitimate GOAT legacy that was planned in 2017 and 18.
So full of it.

The secrets out now; we all know Novak can as good as disappear from the tour in a flash. Gone are the days when we all thought he would dominate tennis for ever.
 
#22
If Djoko wins this he is a bigger threat than Rafa imo. He will be the favourite in 3/4 slams.

Anyway, i said after AO18 that the race was most likely over and i stand by that.
it depends how long he can go until. I think he'll be in serious slam contention thru the end of 2020. 2021 and 2022 are questionmarks for me. Turn 35 in 2022.
 
#23
They are getting older man. The field is maturing. Every Slam matters here on.
The voice of reason. I love fed but he might be done (might...but could win one more if things go his way). If nadal has another few setbacks, I think he’s done. And Novak is likely to re-injure something...and has a long way to go to catch fed. And heck yes the field will continue to gain (even though they’ve been underwhelming up to this point)
 
#25
it depends how long he can go until. I think he'll be in serious slam contention thru the end of 2020. 2021 and 2022 are questionmarks for me. Turn 35 in 2022.
If Djokovic wins USO18 and AO19 (which is far from certain), and Rafa takes FO19, the gap between Fedr and Djoko will be the same as after AO16 (5 slams). Then he is 32y and will need another 6 slams to reach 21. Thats a tough task, still more likely than Rafa imo. 2 a year If he can keep it up until 35.

I know many will disagree, but if Djoko takes AO and Rafa FO, then Rafa is 33. I dont think he will win HC/grass slams at 33+. His style of play makes him play too many 4-5 hour matches om HC (which this USO really confirmed). He has pulled out of the last two HC slams with injury. And 3 more FO's at that age?
 
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Rafa24

Hall of Fame
#27
AO17 caused the race to be over. It looks near but is far.
no it didn't. if ao 17 was feds last slam he'd be at 18 and rafa at 17. djoker coming from nowhere at wimbledon(when he said after RG he might skip it) to barely get by Rafa costing rafa number 18 and rafas knee tonight ended the slam race. He wins either of those and he's very much alive in the slam race.

I don't think he can do it now. He is aging and his last 2 HC slams he's gotten injured. A couple of younger guys are getting better. Ultron Djoker appears to be back.

If Djoker wins sunday i predict he will have 17 by next years end.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#29
All it will take now is one slip up at RG and it is over IMO.

He needed this USO, yet again he has failed to come within two of Federer.

AO 2014 (assuming he still wins RG that year), AO 2017, W 2018 and USO 2018 were golden opportunities to catch Federer, but he cannot seem to do it.

I am not sure about AO chances, especially with Djokovic back. He will be 33 heading into RG and will still need four slams to hold the record. That is asking a lot. And if Federer somehow sneaks out one more slam before he retires, then it over regardless of what Nadal does IMO.

Massive missed opportunity in 2018. After all the resurgence of the last two years, he made zero ground on Federer and is not two years older.
 
#30
All it will take now is one slip up at RG and it is over IMO.

He needed this USO, yet again he has failed to come within two of Federer.

AO 2014 (assuming he still wins RG that year), AO 2017, W 2018 and USO 2018 were golden opportunities to catch Federer, but he cannot seem to do it.

I am not sure about AO chances, especially with Djokovic back. He will be 33 heading into RG and will still need four slams to hold the record. That is asking a lot. And if Federer somehow sneaks out one more slam before he retires, then it over regardless of what Nadal does IMO.

Massive missed opportunity in 2018. After all the resurgence of the last two years, he made zero ground on Federer and is not two years older.
I don't know about a missed opportunity. He broke down at 2/4 slams and lost a 50-50 to Djokovic at Wimbledon that was effectively for the title. It's not as though there's a tournament that he threw away. Things just didn't quite go his way.
 
#31
All it will take now is one slip up at RG and it is over IMO.

He needed this USO, yet again he has failed to come within two of Federer.

AO 2014 (assuming he still wins RG that year), AO 2017, W 2018 and USO 2018 were golden opportunities to catch Federer, but he cannot seem to do it.

I am not sure about AO chances, especially with Djokovic back. He will be 33 heading into RG and will still need four slams to hold the record. That is asking a lot. And if Federer somehow sneaks out one more slam before he retires, then it over regardless of what Nadal does IMO.

Massive missed opportunity in 2018. After all the resurgence of the last two years, he made zero ground on Federer and is not two years older.
Djoko now bigger threat imo (assuming he wins USO), although not a big threat. One year younger than Nads, plays with less effort, and the clear fav at 3/4 slams. If Djoko takes AO, it will be very hard for Nads to win outside FO at 33y+.

As for Djoko, i think he blew it because of 2012-2014 and the troubles after 2016FO. Even if he takes USO + AO the gap is still the same as after FO16, and he will be 32y.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#32
I don't know about a missed opportunity. He broke down at 2/4 slams and lost a 50-50 to Djokovic at Wimbledon that was effectively for the title. It's not as though there's a tournament that he threw away. Things just didn't quite go his way.
Not saying he choked or anything, he lost because in form players beat him. I am stating he look overall much better than Federer form wise and was going deeper in all the slams post AO than Federer. He was playing slam winning tennis, red hot form on the grass, many had him as fav for USO, and he failed at both.
 
#33
Djoko now bigger threat imo (assuming he wins USO), although not a big threat. One year younger than Nads, plays with less effort, and the clear fav at 3/4 slams. If Djoko takes AO, it will be very hard for Nads to win outside FO at 33y+.

As for Djoko, i think he blew it because of 2012-2014 and the troubles after 2016FO. Even if he takes USO + AO the gap is still the same as after FO16, and he will be 32y.
Nadal has only won 2 of the last 24 non clay slams. He might win another one somewhere but he'll never be dominant off clay.
 
#34
Not saying he choked or anything, he lost because in form players beat him. I am stating he look overall much better than Federer form wise and was going deeper in all the slams post AO than Federer. He was playing slam winning tennis, red hot form on the grass, many had him as fav for USO, and he failed at both.
He is going to have convert it when he has a really good chance and is in good form going forward if he wants any sort of chance. Especially at slams that aren't RG. So far is he is 0-2 in that scenario that last 2 years---since his form improved generally again. (AO 17 and Wim 18 SF)
 
#35
All it will take now is one slip up at RG and it is over IMO.

He needed this USO, yet again he has failed to come within two of Federer.

AO 2014 (assuming he still wins RG that year), AO 2017, W 2018 and USO 2018 were golden opportunities to catch Federer, but he cannot seem to do it.

I am not sure about AO chances, especially with Djokovic back. He will be 33 heading into RG and will still need four slams to hold the record. That is asking a lot. And if Federer somehow sneaks out one more slam before he retires, then it over regardless of what Nadal does IMO.

Massive missed opportunity in 2018. After all the resurgence of the last two years, he made zero ground on Federer and is not two years older.
And all those missed opportunities by Nadal means Nadal will now have to Fight for the second Place,, as Djokovic is back from the Dead And he looks relentless and hungry ..

I personally think Djoker is gonna end at No 2 behind Federer in slam Race ..
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#36
Djoko now bigger threat imo (assuming he wins USO), although not a big threat. One year younger than Nads, plays with less effort, and the clear fav at 3/4 slams. If Djoko takes AO, it will be very hard for Nads to win outside FO at 33y+.

As for Djoko, i think he blew it because of 2012-2014 and the troubles after 2016FO. Even if he takes USO + AO the gap is still the same as after FO16, and he will be 32y.
I think Djokovic is too far back also, he must have to go on a rampage of the like of his 2015-2016 run, winning like 5 out of 6 slams or something there about to have a serious shot at the title. He certainly needs this USO as a start, but his road is even more tougher than Nadal's.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#37
And all those missed opportunities by Nadal means Nadal will now have to Fight for the second Place,, as Djokovic is back from the Dead And he looks relentless and hungry ..

I personally think Djoker is gonna end at No 2 behind Federer in slam Race ..
Possible, if Djokovic wins this USO, that Nadal's position is under massive threat. Djokovic looks really hungry, and he wants everything badly.
 
#38
Nadal has only won 2 of the last 24 non clay slams. He might win another one somewhere but he'll never be dominant off clay.
Lies, damn lies and statistics
Actually you can’t argue with 2/20 when you see it in the cold light of day

Not good for Nadal that there are some big hitters now who can push Nadal towards the brink round by round
Not even sure facing Federer is going to get any easier as they age


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#39
Novak could go on a tear from here. If he wins the USO on Sunday he’s at 14, and then it wouldn’t shock anyone if he picked up another 4 or 5 in the next couple of years.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
#40
This USO was crucial for Rafa in his quest to overtake Federer. Now the difference between them remains 3 GS, the same since 2014. I know Rafa can still win a couple more RGs(at max) and maybe eke out a USO going ahead, but I don't see him catch Federer, here on. The field is getting tougher and he's getting older. I don't put it past him though, but this USO was crucial.

If he gets 2 RG's and one USO then he does equal Fed. Right ?

But if Nole takes the RG next year, then his chances of reaching 21 are more or less over.
 
#41
no it didn't. if ao 17 was feds last slam he'd be at 18 and rafa at 17. djoker coming from nowhere at wimbledon(when he said after RG he might skip it) to barely get by Rafa costing rafa number 18 and rafas knee tonight ended the slam race. He wins either of those and he's very much alive in the slam race.

I don't think he can do it now. He is aging and his last 2 HC slams he's gotten injured. A couple of younger guys are getting better. Ultron Djoker appears to be back.

If Djoker wins sunday i predict he will have 17 by next years end.
Djokr is very prone to upset to new gen players, i see him finishing ye#1 next year but from then on its new gen. Only Nadal is a serious threat to the record if he don't lose in RG. Sooner or later it will happen and its likely Djok will beat him in RG final.
 

jimjam

Professional
#42
It would be kind of poetic if all 3 at ended at exactly 20, no? Golden era of tennis. 3 great champions. Etc.

As a fed fan boy tho, I’d prefer 20/19/18 distribution. Or maybe 20/18/18 would be better, just to give a clear gap for the goat :)
 
#43
Do posters really see Novak winning more than 4 Slams past the age of 30? Should he win tomorrow that’s 2. The pace will slow considerably from now on. Elbow could flare up again the more he wins and his record v the Next Gen is not as good as Fed or Rafa. Granted the next Gen still not ready yet, but eventually they will break through.

Rafa’s on 3 atm past 30. Certainly see him getting one more RG next year.
 
#44
This USO was crucial for Rafa in his quest to overtake Federer. Now the difference between them remains 3 GS, the same since 2014. I know Rafa can still win a couple more RGs(at max) and maybe eke out a USO going ahead, but I don't see him catch Federer, here on. The field is getting tougher and he's getting older. I don't put it past him though, but this USO was crucial.
It’s still likely Rafa overtakes Roger slam record.
You will have to wait for three or four years more to affirm that Roger’s safe, so you must be patient.
 
#45
I really don't see Djokovic going on a tear in the next year. He's too old for that now. I doubt his body could handle it.

Besides that yes he's in the final of the USO but just take a look at his road to it. I'm not so sure he would have gotten there if he were switched with Nadal.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
#46
Nothing is over, but I see what the OP is saying. At any rate it's nice that someone takes the other side of this and stops assuming that Nadal will just win the next 3 slams and tie Federer easily. That probably won't happen so each loss gets bigger in magnitude for Nadal.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
#48
Djoko now bigger threat imo (assuming he wins USO), although not a big threat. One year younger than Nads, plays with less effort, and the clear fav at 3/4 slams. If Djoko takes AO, it will be very hard for Nads to win outside FO at 33y+.

As for Djoko, i think he blew it because of 2012-2014 and the troubles after 2016FO. Even if he takes USO + AO the gap is still the same as after FO16, and he will be 32y.
Djokovic doesn't play with less effort, IMO, and being one year younger is not much of a consolation, when he needs 4 (maybe three after tomorrow) just to catch Nadal.

That is one whole season similar to 2011, which is one hell of a task.

IMO, he will do extremely well to even catch or surpass Nadal.

:cool:
 
#49
I see it a bit differently. 2019, I think Roger wins 1 slam (AO > WB), with a small chance for 2. It sounds out there right now, but my gut tells me so. Mary Carillo says Roger was unwell at the conclusion of the Millman match and it took him a while to even lie down to breathe normally after coming off court.

He'll look back at WB and USO as missed chances. He'll work extra hard on his game in the off-season and will be focused at AO19. He's also the 2-time defending champ. Not much more motivation needed.

Final slam count, imo:
Fed: 22
Ned: 19
Djed: 17
Fed has no motivation, he wants to spend time with his family.
Moreover he just cashed in 300 mil from sponsors i dont think he cares about tennis much anymore.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
#50
Just stating the obvious, the slam race isn't over untill the big 3 are retired. The game is unpredictable with plenty of twists and turns.

Nadal is still a level or two above everyone at RG, Novak might go on another tear, Fed could still sneak one AO or Wimbledon before he's done etc. it's hard to tell who's gonna end up with most slam titles.

With such lacklustre two gens of players in a row, the big 3 will stop when their bodies break down.
 
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