The Slam Race is drawing to a close

[Jonas78]

Djokovic doesn't play with less effort, IMO, and being one year younger is not much of a consolation, when he needs 4 (maybe three after tomorrow) just to catch Nadal.

That is one whole season similar to 2011, which is one hell of a task.

IMO, he will do extremely well to even catch or surpass Nadal.

Well he doesnt have to work so hard on serve. Nads almost went 13 hours in 3 matches from R3 to QF, thats too much.

 

[raph6]

Losing to djoker in wimbledon was crushing. He had so many chances, roof debacle etc.

Then the injury here. **** luck but that happens to Rafa a lot.

As much as I like Rafa or even Del Potro, injuries are not bad luck 90% of the time. They are caused by the repetition of bad gestures.

Gasquet's back problems ? Just look at how he is arching when serving. Tsonga and Wawrinka knee injuries ? Overweight. Djokovic's elbow injury ? Too much use of his wrist on the FH and serve.

Etc etc... Injuries are caused by their games and their games are part of their success. Federer has almost never been injured because his technic is perfect.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

As much as I like Rafa or even Del Potro, injuries are not bad luck 90% of the time. They are caused by the repetition of bad gestures.

Gasquet's back problems ? Just look at how he is arching when serving. Tsonga and Wawrinka knee injuries ? Overweight. Djokovic's elbow injury ? Too much use of his wrist on the FH and serve.

Etc etc... Injuries are caused by their games and their games are part of their success. Federer has almost never been injured because his technic is perfect.

Good points I think there is some luck in freak cases but mainly it is what you said. Our bodies arent that different.

 

[Deleted member 754093]

Time to start looking back at predictions from 4 or 5 years ago, then think about how accurate they were.

AngieB was going on and on about Novak "#majoring in #minors". She got banned, so you can't search her name, but it was relentless.

Then Novak went on his tear, eventually holding all four majors and looking like he would never lose again.

Fed was dismissed as unlikely to ever win something big again. And Nadal. Then Novak fell at the end of 2016, and people here said his career was done.

Almost everyone has been wrong about almost everything almost every time.

I think it's more likely none of the Big Three are done, and the likelihood of each of them adding to their slam lists is probably more linked to age than anything else.

People said that Fed was retiring after the knee surgery. “Impossible to come back from that — FED DONE.” Then they ate crow

I’m done making predictions. You never know. Maybe Mury GOAT goes on a tear

 

[mika1979]

Nadal has a good 3-4 yrs but Federer is happy and done with 20

The best fed will do is semi or qtf

If true Nadal will overtake fed, as he is a lock for fo

 

[BeatlesFan]

Doesn't change anything really...

And nothing has changed for 6 years. Nadal hasn’t gained at all in the slam race. He was three behind Fed then and he’s still three behind. And he will always be behind Fed because he’s too old to catch him.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Mary Carillo says Roger was unwell at the conclusion of the Millman match and it took him a while to even lie down to breathe normally.

Final slam count, imo:
Fed: 22
Ned: 19
Djed: 17

Actually it was Mary Jo Fernandez.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

And nothing has changed for 6 years. Nadal hasn’t gained at all in the slam race. He was three behind Fed then and he’s still three behind. And he will always be behind Fed because he’s too old to catch him.

Too old to catch him? That should be true but I’m sure you know as well as I do that the new generation of players are absolutely pathetic. Couldn’t tie their shoelaces if their life depended on it.

 

[zagor]

Losing to djoker in wimbledon was crushing. He had so many chances, roof debacle etc.

Then the injury here. **** luck but that happens to Rafa a lot.

Every dog has his day,

 

[BeatlesFan]

I don't know about a missed opportunity. He broke down at 2/4 slams and lost a 50-50 to Djokovic at Wimbledon that was effectively for the title. It's not as though there's a tournament that he threw away. Things just didn't quite go his way.

Of course 2018 was a missed opportunity for Nadal, what are you talking about? He didn’t gain on Fed and his 20 slams. He’s still three behind.

Gee whiz, “things just didn’t go his way,” equates with one thing: he made no ground on Fed’s lead. Both Fed and Nadal are playing for one thing only at this point: majors. And Rafa stays firmly behind and will be 32.7 at the AO next year. Spin all the excuses you want, this was a massive missed opportunity. His slam winning days are dwindling and Fed’s are over.

 

[ABCD]

Rafa will finish career with more than 20 GS. If Federer does not win more, he will be overtaken.

 

[tennisaddict]

It would be fitting for one of Fedal to end as the slam count winner. Doesn't matter which one of them .

 

[Ann]

Federer isn't done.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

Federer isn't done.

He’s Finnish. Booking the flight to Helsinki as we speak.

 

[tennis_pro]

2 retirements in Slams in the same season while playing a limited schedule. Go figure.

2019 FO is crucial, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Nadal win his final Slam this year. On the other hand I've been saying this since 2009.

 

[ABCD]

It would be fitting for one of Fedal to end as the slam count winner. Doesn't matter which one of them .

Between Federer and Nadal I would say 75% probability is that Nadal will finish with more GS.

 

[ABCD]

Federer is not finished as he keeps improving his game. Whether he can get another one is not certain. Everything depends on Djokovic (Jelena). If she is supportive it will be tough for anyone to beat Novak.

 

[moonballs]

Losing to djoker in wimbledon was crushing. He had so many chances, roof debacle etc.

Then the injury here. **** luck but that happens to Rafa a lot.

Sure, blame bad luck and injuries, while ignoring all the help from the cakewalk draws through his whole career.

Fed and Djoker each had no business winning 2017 AO and 2018W. Yet the heathy Nadal could not get the job done.

Maybe the truth is his achievements is where he is supposed to be.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Another thing that needs to be kept in mind is Nadal's injuries...

He played five competitive matches this season before Monte Carlo in April, one of which he could not even finish. He did not play any grass warm up events. He played on Toronto and skipped Cincinnati to rest and prepare for USO, and he still retired injured.

This is NOT a good thing. Even with a much more reduced schedule, his body is breaking down faster than before. Next year, he will be back to playing Acapulco, IW and Miami, so he will once again add more mileage back on his body before he attempts another long arduous clay season campaign, with the incredible pressure of trying to defend. RG is still his last bastion, one he simply cannot afford to lose while still chasing a Federer, who can still sneak a slam out if it all falls into place for him. At 33, and carrying these injures, along with the return of Djokovic to the winner's circle, next season will be very testing on him....he won his first RG in 2005, it will be 14 years later next year...time is vanishing fast.

 

[Bartelby]

Nadal has had his body garaged for the back half of the season on a regular basis.

Nadal is not so much injured, but rather he has body parts susceptible to re-injury.

Every player has a unique bodily profile and Nadal's is far better and more reliable than most.

It's just not perfect, but would anyone choose to have del Potro's body over Nadal's?

 

[justasport]

Final Count:
Fed- 21
Djo- 19
Nad- 18

 

[Ann]

Final Count:
Fed- 21
Djo- 19
Nad- 18

Federer 22
Nadal 20
Djoker 18

 

[Tennisgods]

Do posters really see Novak winning more than 4 Slams past the age of 30? Should he win tomorrow that’s 2. The pace will slow considerably from now on. Elbow could flare up again the more he wins and his record v the Next Gen is not as good as Fed or Rafa. Granted the next Gen still not ready yet, but eventually they will break through.

Rafa’s on 3 atm past 30. Certainly see him getting one more RG next year.

I think it’s possible, but i’m encouraged by New Gen, Tsitsipas etc. I think they’ll build on the early promise over the next three years and we might see a nice changing of the guard. Zverev might have his game toughened up by Ivan.

But to be honest it’s this year and next that Djokovic should really be licking his lips about. The field is very beatable, especially in best of 5.

Fitness and motivation seem the greatest threat to Djokovic really. Can’t see anyone out there beating him on a consistent basis.

 

[Tennisgods]

Too old to catch him? That should be true but I’m sure you know as well as I do that the new generation of players are absolutely pathetic. Couldn’t tie their shoelaces if their life depended on it.

Big sigh. Very much this, sadly.

 

[helterskelter]

Why is Nadal winning three further titles at Roland Garros implausible? That would equal - though not surpass - Federer even without Nadal winning any Slam titles elsewhere, assuming that Federer doesn't win any further Slams.

You say you can see Nadal winning two more at RG but not four more, but don't address three more.

Assuming Roger is finally done, I'd say Federer is still likely to retain his record by the end of next season if Rafa doesn't add 2 slams in 2019. He needs to keep winning at RG and he needs to score another slam(s) away from dirt. Winning at RG alone won't cut it because he isn't likely to win 4 more times there. (I could see him winning 2 though, 2 of the next 3 probably) . Not to mention it won't look great if all 4 were to be RG, but doesn't matter because like I said doubt he would be able to do it that way anyway.

I still think his chance to do it is decent because it was Novak who stopped him at Wimbledon and you could argue he was quite likely effectively a point or 2 away from the title. (Key word effectively before people get mad lol)

As good as Novak is playing and I would tend to favor him over Rafa anywhere but dirt when both are in decent forms for the rest of their career, Rafa can easily score a win as the slight underdog in future matches vs. Novak. Without Novak in the picture he won 2 slams in 2017 and might have been 3 if Federer wasn't in the picture, so depends on Roger too going forward.

I'd say its around 50/50 now. He wasn't playing that well this tournament IMO, almost got knocked out by Thiem and just generally didn't look as good as at Wimbledon. He's gonna have more of those "meh" tournaments going forwards because of age I think and his form has always varied away from the red stuff. What it's going to come down to I think is taking the opportunities when they're there at the slams off clay; when he's in good form and playing near his best and clearly a class above the rest apart from Novak (or Roger if Fed has more left in the tank). He's failed twice in that scenario in 2017 AO And 2018 WIM SF ( which was probably a defacto final).

I think the slam chase for Rafa will come down to defeating Novak again in a slam (that isn't RG) final or semifinal when he's zoning. At least once and maybe twice over the rest of their careers. I think he'll have a few chances at that but might struggle getting over the line. Can he do it? Maybe.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I think Novak will pass nadal. It’s gonna come down to fed and Djoko for GOAT!

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Why is Nadal winning three further titles at Roland Garros implausible? That would equal - though not surpass - Federer even without Nadal winning any Slam titles elsewhere, assuming that Federer doesn't win any further Slams.

You say you can see Nadal winning two more at RG but not four more, but don't address three more.

I think nadal will struggle at even RG going forward. He might win it but with Djokovic back to his best he could lose to him there!

 

[Deleted member 716271]

Why is Nadal winning three further titles at Roland Garros implausible? That would equal - though not surpass - Federer even without Nadal winning any Slam titles elsewhere, assuming that Federer doesn't win any further Slams.

You say you can see Nadal winning two more at RG but not four more, but don't address three more.

I said not 4 more in the context of meaning to say he is probably going to have to win elsewhere to get there as RG alone won't cut it (to get 4 more which would break the record if Fed is done)

I guess Nadal is unlikely to win 3 more because I think he has 3 more years to have a good shot at it. He will turn 35 at RG 2021 (3rd year) I still give him good shot for all 3 of those but after that I don't think so at 36+ on clay might be too much even for him. Perhaps that sounds arbitrary but in predictions like this you have to draw the line somewhere. OF the next 3 years, he will be big favorite for next and probably win but you never know. Especially with Djokovic back, I still favor Nadal over him at RG of course but it's no guarantee. He is better than 50 percent chance to win there still now I think but combine all 3 years and he is probably getting less and less. If he is even say 60 percent chance to win in 2020 (which would be incredible for him), and you look at all 3 years as like 80/70/60 percent chances (optimistic I think even for how incredible he is on clay), then statistically he would be unlikely to win all 3.

it is not impossible he can win at 36+ but just seems unlikely, maybe his chance would be like 20 percent I don't know if he is still playing 2022 and on. As great as he on clay and as much as he is defying age (really incredible to do it on hardest playing, most grinding surface), I think to expect him to win much past 2020 there is unrealistic. Obviously he is still physical enough to win there now an for it to continue to be by far his best surface. But there might come a point at 35/36 where he actually has better shot at say the USO. Even Federer is slowing down at 36 and he doesn't even play clay.

 

[Antonio Puente]

Fed is finished winning slams. The target is set at 20. If Nadal is healthy, and it sounds like the knee injury isn't as bad as some feared, he will likely get 3 more. Nadal is challenging at practically every slam, and Christmas comes once a year in May.

If Djoker wins tomorrow, he'll get close.

Best scenario for Fed fans is that Nadal and Djoker beat one another up.

 

[tennisaddict]

Fed is finished winning slams. The target is set at 20. If Nadal is healthy, and it sounds like the knee injury isn't as bad as some feared, he will likely get 3 more. Nadal is challenging at practically every slam, and Christmas comes once a year in May.

If Djoker wins tomorrow, he'll get close.

Best scenario for Fed fans is that Nadal and Djoker beat one another up.

Target is 21 my friend . History will rightfully list Fed first should they be tied in major count

 

[StannisTheMannis]

Novak will equal Rafa, but will fall short of Federer. Think Rafa has 1 RG left.

 

[Antonio Puente]

Target is 21 my friend . History will rightfully list Fed first should they be tied in major count

That's probably wishful thinking. If you have the most slams, the most masters and you owned the guy who was the GOAT, you're the GOAT. It's not rocket science.

 

[AlexanderTheGreat08]

I think Novak will pass nadal. It’s gonna come down to fed and Djoko for GOAT!

Nadal could still go for another RG and maybe another one outside Clay , Who knows? , Djokovic is 7 majors behind Federer and 4 behind Nadal while only being 1 year younger and not having his injury record, He needs to beat Delpo tomorrow to put some hope , If he losses it will be the 5th time Djokovic losses a GS final to someone who isn’t Federer or Nadal and that my friend could send Djokovic out of the conversation

 

[AlexanderTheGreat08]

That's probably wishful thinking. If you have the most slams, the most masters and you owned the guy who was the GOAT, you're the GOAT. It's not rocket science.

Nadal needs to at least tie Federer and some people will claim Nadal as GOAT for the h2h and Cause Federer wasn’t able to stop him , But he needs to tie Federer firts

 

[tennisaddict]

That's probably wishful thinking. If you have the most slams, the most masters and you owned the guy who was the GOAT, you're the GOAT. It's not rocket science.

Slam count is the most important metric and in the event of a tie , person who got there first is always listed on top

 

[BlueB]

As much as I'd like to see Nole rule them all, I don't think anyone will catch up with anyone...
Fed might be done or might get lucky for another one, the other 2 might get a few, but are getting too old to close 3+ slam gaps.

But then, it's tennis - you never know...

Sent from my SM-G965W using Tapatalk

 

[AlexanderTheGreat08]

Final Count:
Fed- 21
Djo- 19
Nad- 18

Federer 22
Nadal 20
Djoker 18

Federer 21/20
Nadal 19
Djokovic 17

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Fed is finished winning slams. The target is set at 20. If Nadal is healthy, and it sounds like the knee injury isn't as bad as some feared, he will likely get 3 more. Nadal is challenging at practically every slam, and Christmas comes once a year in May.

If Djoker wins tomorrow, he'll get close.

Best scenario for Fed fans is that Nadal and Djoker beat one another up.

You along with all of us know just how unpredictable things are in this sport. To say a player who won a slam this year is finished winning slams is a dangerous assumption. All it will take is a draw opening up on a faster surfaces and Federer can still take a slam. Until Federer retires, or has started losing first, second or third rounds, it is best not to right him off winning one last slam.

 

[AlexanderTheGreat08]

Slam count is the most important metric and in the event of a tie , person who got there first is always listed on top

Mmmm then why people claimed Federer as the GOAT after catching Sampras? And why does Djokovic gets to be ahead of Sampras if he catches his slam count?. If Nadal does reach 20 , People will ask themselves why didn’t Federer stopped him , They had a lot of famous matches at the majors

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

If Djoko wins here, I can imagine this guy to go for 2015 in 2019 and another NCYGS. It seems that his injury is gone as well as private problems, plus birth of the second child is now finally finished. That will make Ralph's job a lot, lot tougher. Gone is the time of late 2016, 2017 and the beginning of 2018 when Novak was injured allowing Nadal and Federer to vulture and feast on his legitimate GOAT legacy that was planned in 2017 and 18.

If nole could meet fedal in 2017 and early 2018 (he met nadal twice, though),
Then a mass destruction of his positive H2H was waiting

He was not at all capable beating 2017 federer at AO, IW, MIA, WIM and 2017 BullNadal at AO, MIA, MC, ROME, RG
Or 2018 federer at AO, ROT, IW and 2018 Nadal at MC, MAD, ROME, RG
In nole's peak years, fedal met him so many times even when they were playing crap, but nole failed to return that favour to them in 2017-first half of 2018, and 2009(fed),

 

[weakera]

Rafa really needs one more non-RG slam and it looks like he will at least have his chances at them moving forward. I sort of disagree with the idea that he needs 21, to me if he got to 20 he'd probably die a happy man assuming Fed stays there.

 

[weakera]

If nole could meet fedal in 2017 and early 2018 (he met nadal twice, though),
Then a mass destruction of his positive H2H was waiting

He was not at all capable beating 2017 federer at AO, IW, MIA, WIM and 2017 BullNadal at AO, MIA, MC, ROME, RG
Or 2018 federer at AO, ROT, IW and 2018 Nadal at MC, MAD, ROME, RG
In nole's peak years, fedal met him so many times even when they were playing crap, but nole failed to return that favour to them in 2017-first half of 2018, and 2009(fed),

This is mostly true. Timing had been more kind for Djokovic in regards to h2h. But that's just tough and those are the breaks. History will just care about the numbers.

 

[Krish0608]

That's probably wishful thinking. If you have the most slams, the most masters and you owned the guy who was the GOAT, you're the GOAT. It's not rocket science.

Relax, it will likely never come to that. The wheels are coming off for Nadal as well, in case you're not noticing. It's not going to get any better next year.

 

[tennisaddict]

Mmmm then why people claimed Federer as the GOAT after catching Sampras? And why does Djokovic gets to be ahead of Sampras if he catches his slam count?. If Nadal does reach 20 , People will ask themselves why didn’t Federer stopped him , They had a lot of famous matches at the majors

It was not until Fed reached 16 and clearly steered away from Pete there was unanimous acceptance

No one called Fed GOAT at 14 and wasn’t unanimous at 15

 

[reaper]

Of course 2018 was a missed opportunity for Nadal, what are you talking about? He didn’t gain on Fed and his 20 slams. He’s still three behind.

Gee whiz, “things just didn’t go his way,” equates with one thing: he made no ground on Fed’s lead. Both Fed and Nadal are playing for one thing only at this point: majors. And Rafa stays firmly behind and will be 32.7 at the AO next year. Spin all the excuses you want, this was a massive missed opportunity. His slam winning days are dwindling and Fed’s are over.

Missed opportunity implies an underachievement through his own action. He broke down physically in 2/4 slams, won 1 of the other 2 and went close in the other. I doubt he was negligent in his preparation so his losses were no more a missed opportunity for Nadal than for any other player who was beaten in slams this year.

 

[reaper]

Rafa really needs one more non-RG slam and it looks like he will at least have his chances at them moving forward. I sort of disagree with the idea that he needs 21, to me if he got to 20 he'd probably die a happy man assuming Fed stays there.

He'll probably die a happy man if he never wins another match. Just as Federer will live perfectly happily if one of the other 2 takes his slam record. I'm sure all 3 want the record. I also doubt the self worth and happiness of any of the 3 is at all contingent on it.

 

[weakera]

He'll probably die a happy man if he never wins another match. Just as Federer will live perfectly happily if one of the other 2 takes his slam record. I'm sure all 3 want the record. I also doubt the self worth and happiness of any of the 3 is at all contingent on it.

Just an expression...

 

[alex87]

This USO was crucial for Rafa in his quest to overtake Federer. Now the difference between them remains 3 GS, the same since 2014. I know Rafa can still win a couple more RGs(at max) and maybe eke out a USO going ahead, but I don't see him catch Federer, here on. The field is getting tougher and he's getting older. I don't put it past him though, but this USO was crucial.

I hope they all 3 won't win slams anymore. They are winning all the slams since 2004. Please stop them. We need new faces news stories new winners.
I hope some new guys will start winning slam next year, let's see if Lend is able to help Zverev.

 

[juanparty]

And nothing has changed for 6 years. Nadal hasn’t gained at all in the slam race. He was three behind Fed then and he’s still three behind. And he will always be behind Fed because he’s too old to catch him.

Lol Are you really not ashamed? where is your self love?

 

[juanparty]

Final Count:
Fed- 21
Djo- 19
Nad- 18

you have failed in the all 3 my friend