The toughest draw of all time: Nadal at Wimbledon 2019

jm1980 said:
Interesting that the Bamos Brigadiers forgot about Berrettini beating Kyrgios quite easily on grass, just weeks ago
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Nadal had the tougest R2 match, thats it. Tsonga-Cilic-Thiem looked strong on paper, but now Rafa faces 1/3, and current Tsonga is far from what he once was. Fedals R3 the same, Berrettini far stronger than Nadals R4. VB shouldnt complain:). Of course QF and out are far tougher for Fedal than Djoko, and ill admit Querrey-Federer-Djokovic looks like the toughest path. The whole field sucks, so its pretty much impossible to make hard draws for anyone:-D. I mean, who is the 4th best player in the world right now? Thiem?? Anything but Big3 in the semis would be a surprise. Looks like a done deal for Djoker again, unfortunately:eek:
 
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veroniquem said:
When it comes to draws, there is myth and then there is reality.
Ranking of top 3's opponents in first 4 rounds:

R1: Djokovic: 57 - Nadal: 274 - Federer: 86
R2: Djokovic: 111- Nadal: 43 - Federer: 169
R3: Djokovic: 48 - Nadal: 72 - Federer: 28
R4: Djokovic: 66 - Nadal: 69 - Federer: 20

Red = highest ranked opponent
Blue = lowest ranked opponent

Fed has the toughest draw: half the rounds with highest ranked opponent
Nadal has the easiest draw: 3 out of 4 rounds with lowest ranked opponent
Note that Djokovic NEVER faced lowest ranked opponent (Nadal 3 times, Fed once)

This thread is not aging well lol ;)
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Objective, but you usually are. Also being objective though I will say seeding isnt always the only factor, but I dont think Nadal or Federer have especially tough draws

You're right about this thread not aging well though
 
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AceSalvo said:
Fact #1: Berrettini beat Kyrgios without losing a set to go on and win a grass title. Berrettini has a dedicated thread about him beating Fed. So Berrettini > Kyrgios.

Fact #2: Poullie >>>>>>>>>> Tsonga. Fed could have gone 4 or 5 sets if he didn't play his absolute best against Pouille.

Fact #3: Nishikori hasn't lost a set. He also has >= 78% of first serve points won. Also Nishikori was a 2018 Wimbledon QF'ist (lost to the 2018 winner) where Querry lost in the 3R. So Nishikori = Querry.

So you just decided to ignore all the facts and just posted your "opinion not based on facts" i.e. ramblings which is what VB Landers do. Thanks for proving just that with your "invaluable" post.
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Lol you Fed fans always cherry pick and it is sad to watch you be so desperate but also a joy to deconstruct.
#1. Berrettini beating kyrgios doesn't make him a more dangerous player. Now Berrettini seems like a really solid player and I haven't seen him play. So out of respect for his results and his seeding I classify him as more dangerous than other players. However Nick has always been known to raise his game against big name players and has proven he can be dangerous on grass. He is far more dangerous than any player Fed will play on his road to the semis.

#2. I agreed that Pouille is better than Tsonga and maybe I underestimated Pouille and overestimated Tsonga. However Tsonga did play well against Fed in Halle so IMO his initial threat was valid. And Pouille played some really good tennis.

#3. Just because Nishkori hasn't dropped a set doesn't make him a threat. He has a terrible record against the big3 and is never a threat against any of them in slams. Literally a 38yo fed will straight set him. Also Wimbledon is Nishikori's worst slam (he has a 10% lower win % there than the other slams) so he is again not a threat. When you actually look at the players he has played it is of no surprise that he has such a high first serve win % (He played two nobodies and johnson - none of whom are known for their returning abilities). Additionally Querrey's opponents (thiem, rublev and millman) are overall better returners so it makes sense his win% might not be so high. Again this cherry picked stat means nothing when you actually dive deeper and think about it.

The truth is that Querrey and kyrgios are proven on grass courts followed by a big gap and then the rest. If you are still going to come up with excuses or simply be brainwashed that Fed's draw is tougher then I wish you the best.
 
Fridge said:
Lol you Fed fans always cherry pick and it is sad to watch you be so desperate but also a joy to deconstruct.
#1. Berrettini beating kyrgios doesn't make him a more dangerous player. Now Berrettini seems like a really solid player and I haven't seen him play. So out of respect for his results and his seeding I classify him as more dangerous than other players. However Nick has always been known to raise his game against big name players and has proven he can be dangerous on grass. He is far more dangerous than any player Fed will play on his road to the semis.

#2. I agreed that Pouille is better than Tsonga and maybe I underestimated Pouille and overestimated Tsonga. However Tsonga did play well against Fed in Halle so IMO his initial threat was valid. And Pouille played some really good tennis.

#3. Just because Nishkori hasn't dropped a set doesn't make him a threat. He has a terrible record against the big3 and is never a threat against any of them in slams. Literally a 38yo fed will straight set him. Also Wimbledon is Nishikori's worst slam (he has a 10% lower win % there than the other slams) so he is again not a threat. When you actually look at the players he has played it is of no surprise that he has such a high first serve win % (He played two nobodies and johnson - none of whom are known for their returning abilities). Additionally Querrey's opponents (thiem, rublev and millman) are overall better returners so it makes sense his win% might not be so high. Again this cherry picked stat means nothing when you actually dive deeper and think about it.

Querrey and kyrgios are proven on grass courts followed by a big gap and then the rest.
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Lol Querrey has done nothing on grass last year and Kyrgios has done nothing last year as well. But they are bigger threats than Berrettini who just won a grass title.

VB Landers always trying to make an elephant out of an ant.
 
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AceSalvo said:
Lol Querrey has done nothing on grass last year and Kyrgios has done nothing last year as well. But they are bigger threats than Berrettini who just won a grass title.

VB Landers always trying to make an elephant out of an ant.
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So Fed is more of a threat to win wimbledon because he won Halle and Novak didn't win any warmup? #fedfanlogic
 
Fridge said:
So Fed is more of a threat to win wimbledon because he won Halle and Novak didn't win any warmup? #fedfanlogic
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Please show me the quote where someone said that because almost no Fed Fan believes Roger is going to win Wimbledon. I'm sorry but the majority of Fed Fans aren't trolly fanboys.
 
Fridge said:
Lol I am just using your logic that a warmup title makes a player more dangerous hahaha. Thanks for the laugh
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Wow, so Berrettini, Querrey, Nishikori and Kyrgios are at Fed and Djoko level to compare their performance??

That’s the nutty stuff I was trying to point out. Thanks for the bad taste in my mouth.
 
Fridge said:
Lol you Fed fans always cherry pick and it is sad to watch you be so desperate but also a joy to deconstruct.
#1. Berrettini beating kyrgios doesn't make him a more dangerous player. Now Berrettini seems like a really solid player and I haven't seen him play. So out of respect for his results and his seeding I classify him as more dangerous than other players. However Nick has always been known to raise his game against big name players and has proven he can be dangerous on grass. He is far more dangerous than any player Fed will play on his road to the semis.

#2. I agreed that Pouille is better than Tsonga and maybe I underestimated Pouille and overestimated Tsonga. However Tsonga did play well against Fed in Halle so IMO his initial threat was valid. And Pouille played some really good tennis.

#3. Just because Nishkori hasn't dropped a set doesn't make him a threat. He has a terrible record against the big3 and is never a threat against any of them in slams. Literally a 38yo fed will straight set him. Also Wimbledon is Nishikori's worst slam (he has a 10% lower win % there than the other slams) so he is again not a threat. When you actually look at the players he has played it is of no surprise that he has such a high first serve win % (He played two nobodies and johnson - none of whom are known for their returning abilities). Additionally Querrey's opponents (thiem, rublev and millman) are overall better returners so it makes sense his win% might not be so high. Again this cherry picked stat means nothing when you actually dive deeper and think about it.

The truth is that Querrey and kyrgios are proven on grass courts followed by a big gap and then the rest. If you are still going to come up with excuses or simply be brainwashed that Fed's draw is tougher then I wish you the best.
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Nishikori did beat Djokovic at the USO and take Fed to 5 at the AO in 2017. He also took Nadal to a final set at queens in 2008 and took a set off Djokovic at last year's Wimbledon. Fed should beat him but hes not exactly a mug
 
Jonas78 said:
Nadal had the tougest R2 match, thats it. Tsonga-Cilic-Thiem looked strong on paper, but now Rafa faces 1/3, and current Tsonga is far from what he once was. Fedals R3 the same, Berrettini far stronger than Nadals R4. VB shouldnt complain:). Of course QF and out are far tougher for Fedal than Djoko, and ill admit Querrey-Federer-Djokovic looks like the toughest path. The whole field sucks, so its pretty much impossible to make hard draws for anyone:-D. I mean, who is the 4th best player in the world right now? Thiem?? Anything but Big3 in the semis would be a surprise. Looks like a done deal for Djoker again, unfortunately:eek:
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Umm, Pouille is much tougher than Tsonga right now. VB complains unless Nadal gets a draw consisting of seven straight walkovers.
 
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Kyrgios is the only one who has given Rafa a decent contest. I thought before the match Rafa would win based on previous matches like v Rosol who he shockingly lost to but got revenge two years later then look at what he did to Soderling.

Two gas did not turn up and let Rafa smash him. Cilic on paper was hard, but didn’t even make it that far. These are two post 30 year old somethings who are the norm, once they reach past 30.
 
Towser83 said:
Objective, but you usually are. Also being objective though I will say seeding isnt always the only factor, but I dont think Nadal or Federer have especially tough draws

You're right about this thread not aging well though
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Since there is so much discussion about draws in general, I was curious about digging up some numbers. I totally agree that ranking does not tell the whole story (far from it) but the interesting part is that there is no subjectivity involved.
Draws where all 5 opponents faced by the big 3 in their quarter section - R1 to QF- were ranked the highest = in the top 50 ( all slams played in their career every time they made it to QF):

1-DJOKOVIC: RG 2014 ( lowest ranked opponent faced = #44)
2- DJOKOVIC: RG 2006 (LR faced = #46, #28)
3- FEDERER: AO 2013 (LR faced = #46, #43)
4- FEDERER: AO 2010 (LR faced = #47)
5- DJOKOVIC: W 2012 (LR faced = #48)
6- NADAL: AO 2017 (LR faced = #49)

And since this thread claims "toughest draw of all time", let's look at the most unfair draws of all time between the big 3 for the quarter section.
Highest ranked opponent in all 5 rounds:
DJOKOVIC: USO 2008 (between Nadal, Fed and Djoko)
DJOKOVIC: W 2012 (between Djoko and Fed)
FEDERER: USO 2017 (between Nadal and Fed)

Yep it happened only 3 times and never to Nadal. Note that all 3 times, the recipient of highest ranked competition across the board did not win the slam in the end, did not even reach final as a matter of fact. So maybe extremely imbalanced draws do matter a bit.
When it comes to draws, Djoko gets the short end the most often and Nadal the least often in general. So who's complaining again? ;)
 
veroniquem said:
Since there is so much discussion about draws in general, I was curious about digging up some numbers. I totally agree that ranking does not tell the whole story (far from it) but the interesting part is that there is no subjectivity involved.
Draws where all 5 opponents faced by the big 3 in their quarter section - R1 to QF- were ranked the highest = in the top 50 ( all slams played in their career every time they made it to QF):

1-DJOKOVIC: RG 2014 ( lowest ranked opponent faced = #44)
2- DJOKOVIC: RG 2006 (LR faced = #46, #28)
3- FEDERER: AO 2013 (LR faced = #46, #43)
4- FEDERER: AO 2010 (LR faced = #47)
5- DJOKOVIC: W 2012 (LR faced = #48)
6- NADAL: AO 2017 (LR faced = #49)

And since this thread claims "toughest draw of all time", let's look at the most unfair draws of all time between the big 3 for the quarter section.
Highest ranked opponent in all 5 rounds:
DJOKOVIC: USO 2008 (between Nadal, Fed and Djoko)
DJOKOVIC: W 2012 (between Djoko and Fed)
FEDERER: USO 2017 (between Nadal and Fed)

Yep it happened only 3 times and never to Nadal. Note that all 3 times, the recipient of highest ranked competition across the board did not win the slam in the end, did not even reach final as a matter of fact. So maybe extremely imbalanced draws do matter a bit.
When it comes to draws, Djoko gets the short end the most often and Nadal the least often in general. So who's complaining again? ;)
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Good research. I've often felt Djokovic got the hardest draws at least until a few years back.

Like you say It is interesting that none of the 3 slams where one of the top 3 faced the higher seed all through the rounds won, even in the first 6 slams you listed only one was won with the toughest draw, AO 2010. Djokovic having the most tough draws there again with 3, though in 2006 he wasnt top 3 yet
 
As usual, more complaining by bumping this thread lol. Keep it up boys, we can tell you have a busy day of complaining and whining.
 
Its not complaining, its calling out d'bags for apparent falseness.

We will discuss like men about "tough" draws when Nadal wins the ATP WTF. Until then, just make sure to keep changing your diapers.
 
Querrey is about to go to a fifth against Sandgren, so it's not only Querrey in a slow court, but a tired Querrey in a slow as molasses court.
 
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When you are debating whether a broken down, aged Tsonga or a Lucas Pouille is the bigger threat, you're missing the overall point.
NONE OF THE BIG 3 HAS A TOUGH DRAW

This is partly because no one other than the Big 3 is currently worth a damn, and it's partly because (as a result of that) they aren't even facing the chalk mugs they were supposed to face. Nadal had the hardest draw on paper, but when *every single seed* in his quarter of the draw lost before he got to them, that "on paper" draw turned out to be meaningless. What Nadal does have is a draw that is more dangerous than a typical unseeded cakewalk draw, because the guys he is facing have at some point in their careers (although not recently) beaten good players. Kyrgios, Tsonga, Querrey - none is seeded because none is playing good tennis the last 12 months. We know they are capable, if stars align. Stars don't usually align.

What Pouille did against Fed is not relevant. That's the kind of analysis that is ripe with confirmation bias. You see what you want to see.
 
BringBackSV said:
Querrey is an avg player but if he zones with his big serve and forehand he can be dangerous. Why are you still struggling with this concept?
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I am struggling with VB Lander's concept of 'Querrey is a threat to Nadal'. Querrey is a threat to Nadal just as Nishikori is a threat to Fed. Both are playing on the same level. VB Lander's have a tough time accepting that.

Djoko is a "threat" to Nadal. Not Querrey. Makes sense?
 
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AceSalvo said:
I am struggling with VB Lander's concept of 'Querrey is a threat to Nadal'. Querrey is a threat to Nadal just as Nishikori is a threat to Fed. Both are playing on the same level. VB Lander's have a tough time accepting that.

Djoko is a "threat" to Nadal. Not Querrey. Makes sense?
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Kei isn't a threat unless there is something wrong with Fed.

Sam isn't a threat unless he's zoning.

The difference is that one guy has some potential (albeit not substantial) to have the match on their racket.
 
BringBackSV said:
Kei isn't a threat unless there is something wrong with Fed.

Sam isn't a threat unless he's zoning.

The difference is that one guy has some potential (albeit not substantial) to have the match on their racket.
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Kei played very well at 2018 Wimbledon regardless of Fed. Querrey did not, zoning or not.

Not sure what you are rambling about. So you are saying Querrey is only a threat if he is zoning but then not questioning how much false is "Querrey is an absolute threat to Nadal" as being campaigned by VB Lander's.

My contention was simple, Querrey in Wimb 2019 is just a threat as Kei is to Fed. You are adding pointless if's and unless's.
 
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AceSalvo said:
Kei played very well at 2018 Wimbledon regardless of Fed. Querrey did not, zoning or not.

Not sure what you are rambling about. So you are saying Querrey is only a threat if he is zoning but then not questioning how much false is "Querrey is an absolute threat to Nadal" as being campaigned by VB Lander's.

My contention was simple, Querrey in Wimb 2019 is just a threat as Kei is to Fed. You are adding pointless if's and unless's.
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Kei was decent in his 2018 Wimbledon run but what was his most noteworthy win? Also, it's hilarious that you are saying current form is all that matters in assessing their threat level yet referencing Kei from last year.

The only person rambling is you with this VB nonsense in every post you make, it's border on the rants of the senile.

As to your contention, it was simple and I'd expect nothing more from you. With that said, Querrey just needs to zone for a match, not a tournament. Given that they have yet to play, we'll have to wait and see. I won't reiterate anything else because you seem either willfully ignorant or mentally incapable and either way I'll pass on continuing this further.
 
BringBackSV said:
Kei was decent in his 2018 Wimbledon run but what was his most noteworthy win? Also, it's hilarious that you are saying current form is all that matters in assessing their threat level yet referencing Kei from last year.

The only person rambling is you with this VB nonsense in every post you make, it's border on the rants of the senile.

As to your contention, it was simple and I'd expect nothing more from you. With that said, Querrey just needs to zone for a match, not a tournament. Given that they have yet to play, we'll have to wait and see. I won't reiterate anything else because you seem either willfully ignorant or mentally incapable and either way I'll pass on continuing this further.
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That doesn't sound like a threat like the VB Lander's are praising Querrey to be. Thank You for your invaluable feedback.

I get that you don't like facts and keep on rambling about if's, unless's and needs to's.

BringBackSV said:
VB nonsense
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Agreed on that. (y) There is only one set of fans posting nonstop nonsensical threads.
 
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BringBackSV said:
Kei isn't a threat unless there is something wrong with Fed.

Sam isn't a threat unless he's zoning.

The difference is that one guy has some potential (albeit not substantial) to have the match on their racket.
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Querrey is the only big hitter left in the tournament. Whereas Nishikori has good company with Pella, Goffin, and RBA still in the draw.

I don't think Querrey is more of a threat considering his recent form and how the courts are playing.
 
Sport said:
Nadal already had little chances to win Wimbledon before the draw (last year he was close to win), but with this draw he has literally no chance. Nor would Federer or Djokovic win with this draw. No one can. This is the toughest draw of all time.

Here is Nadal's draw:

1R: Sugita

2R: Kyrgios

3R: Tsonga (Tsonga almost defeated Federer at Halle, and many Fed fans said they did not want to have Tsonga in Federer's draw).

4R: Cilic (Wimbledon finalist, has been close to defeat both Federer and Djokovic at Wimbledon in the past).

QF: Querrey (great serve, Eastbourne 2019 finalist, defeated Djokovic at Wimbledon 2016).

SF: Federer

F: Djokovic

This is the most brutal draw the history of tennis has ever seen. Not even the US Open 1990 comes close to this. Sampras had to defeat Muster, Lendl, McEnroe and Agassi to win the US Open 1990. But Muster, Lendl, McEnroe and Agassi "only" sum 23 Majors between the four, while Cilic, Federer and Djokovic sum 36 Grand Slams between the three. McEnroe, Lendl and Agassi are "weak" ATG compared to Federer and Djokovic.
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Sure, Cilic = Lendl... Right.
 
WhiskeyEE said:
Querrey is the only big hitter left in the tournament. Whereas Nishikori has good company with Pella, Goffin, and RBA still in the draw.

I don't think Querrey is more of a threat considering his recent form and how the courts are playing.
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Let me just drop this in here
Wins over top 20 opponents coming into Wimbledon, according to UTS

Berrettini: 5-1
Pella: 5-4
Kyrgios: 4-2
Pouille: 4-2
Goffin: 2-6
Querrey: 0-2
Nishikori: 0-3
Sousa: 0-5
Tsonga: 0-7
 
73west said:
Let me just drop this in here
Wins over top 20 opponents coming into Wimbledon, according to UTS

Berrettini: 5-1
Pella: 5-4
Kyrgios: 4-2
Pouille: 4-2
Goffin: 2-6
Querrey: 0-2
Nishikori: 0-3
Sousa: 0-5
Tsonga: 0-7
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Nishikori beat Medvedev this year (who has been top 20 all year). Not sure about any others.
 
So, who has the toughest road to the title from the quarterfinals onwards of the Big3?
 
DSH said:
So, who has the toughest road to the title from the quarterfinals onwards of the Big3?
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Is this a trick question?

Nadal obviously. He had the toughest draw. And now the toughest QF and path to title.

Querrey >>>>>>>> Nishi/Goffin
 
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Federer fans now say that Nishikori is playing his best tennis in a long time and if we add that he is relatively rested this time, he is a risky rival, even more dangerous than the big server, Querrey.
 
73west said:
Okay, thanks for the correction. Add 1 for KN. Barely changes the point.
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There are hardly enough matches played in that data to tell us anything anyway. The cutoff is also arbitrary considering Nishikori beat the #21 ranked player once and others ranked in the low 20s. I'm not sure Querrey has.
 
73west said:
Disagree. Someone going 0-2 is not meaningful. Someone winning 5 such matches absolutely is.
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I was just talking about Querrey and Nishikori. 0-2 and 1-3 don't really tell us anything. Nishikori may have just played better top 20 opponents especially considering 1 of them was Nadal at the French Open and another was Novak at the AO.
 
WhiskeyEE said:
I was just talking about Querrey and Nishikori. 0-2 and 1-3 don't really tell us anything. Nishikori may have just played better top 20 opponents especially considering 1 of them was Nadal at the French Open and another was Novak at the AO.
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Sure, but the point is that some guys *have* done something, and we shouldn’t be dismissing them offhand.
 
AceSalvo said:
That doesn't sound like a threat like the VB Lander's are praising Querrey to be. Thank You for your invaluable feedback.

I get that you don't like facts and keep on rambling about if's, unless's and needs to's.

Agreed on that. (y) There is only one set of fans posting nonstop nonsensical threads.
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Your inability to comprehend borders on being charming, in a Forrest Gump sort of way. Yes, it's conditional captain obvious. There is not a single player on tour outside of the big 3 that are particularly consistent. I see the idea of ceilings is beyond your grasp and you are just going to carry on with your inane objections.

Yeah, Fed fans don't post "nonstop nonsensical threads" according to you. You are quite the objective kid hahahaha.
 
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