federerfanatic
Banned
I expect Roddick in the semis too. He should take care of Djokovic without much problem. Verdasco isnt mentally strong enough to beat Roddick in a slam. Isner is one dimensional.
^^The US Open 2009 - Men's Singles Draw Thread!^^
- Thread starter GasquetGOAT
- Start date
I expect Roddick in the semis too. He should take care of Djokovic without much problem. Verdasco isnt mentally strong enough to beat Roddick in a slam. Isner is one dimensional.
aptennis91
Rookie
If you think the draw is so easy for Federer, then maybe Nadal should have tried to defend it?? It is the benefit of being 1 seed.
I really think Gasquet has a good chance of upsetting Nadal IF and IF Nadal is in the same form as he was during montreal and cinci.
Roddick and Federer are going to have a heck of a semifinal, but I see Federer winning.. (Really wanted a Roddick-Federer Final
)
Djokovic Lubicic 1st round is pretty interesting as well.
Potential Tsongs vs. Gonzalez (BIG HITTING)
Ferrero vs Santoro 1st round
My semifinals:
Federer Roddick Gonzalez DelPo
Federer Delpo
Federer
I really think Gasquet has a good chance of upsetting Nadal IF and IF Nadal is in the same form as he was during montreal and cinci.
Roddick and Federer are going to have a heck of a semifinal, but I see Federer winning.. (Really wanted a Roddick-Federer Final
)Djokovic Lubicic 1st round is pretty interesting as well.
Potential Tsongs vs. Gonzalez (BIG HITTING)
Ferrero vs Santoro 1st round
My semifinals:
Federer Roddick Gonzalez DelPo
Federer Delpo
Federer
deltox
Hall of Fame
One dimensional or not, Isner is a huge 1st and second serve VS one of the worst serve returners in the atp. its not a gimme by any means. Although, every set they play if they do will work more on Isners fitness than roddicks, so the more sets the better for roddick
As much as the focus seems to be on the Top 6 (and rightfully so), I think most people seem to be under-estimating Tsonga, who knocked off Fed and gave Murray a good run in Montreal. I'd say he got about as favourable a draw as possible, although Gonzalez might prove a bit tricky for a R16 match. Getting put in Nadal's quarter was the best possible result. I predict a Tsonga upset if they do end up meeting in the QFs, although I have serious doubts about Nadal getting that far given his knees and generally rusty form. I think Tsonga will probably make the SFs before losing to Murray or DelPo (assuming they aren't too exhausting from their previous QF match).
In any case, I think Nadal's quarter is the only realistic chance someone from outside the Top 6 makes the Semis (assuming Federer isn't seriously undermotivated after winning #15 and having the twins).
Also, not sure if anyone mentioned this yet, but coincidentally the Top 6 are in IDENTICAL postions relative to each other as they were last year (albeit with different seeds).
In any case, I think Nadal's quarter is the only realistic chance someone from outside the Top 6 makes the Semis (assuming Federer isn't seriously undermotivated after winning #15 and having the twins).
Also, not sure if anyone mentioned this yet, but coincidentally the Top 6 are in IDENTICAL postions relative to each other as they were last year (albeit with different seeds).
federerfanatic
Banned
I agree the Nadal quarter is the best shot for someone outside the top 6 to sneak into the semis. Although I could see someone outside the top 6 also sneaking out of the Roddick-Djokovic quarter.
Well what would you call a hard draw for Fed? Fed's capable of beating practically everyone.
Cfidave
Professional
I would not dismiss Djokovic quite so fast. If he plays like he did against Nadal in Cincy, I would pick him to beat Roddick, like he did last year. If he plays tenative like their last two matches, then yes, Roddick would probably win.
federerfanatic
Banned
Roddick has Djokovic's number. Djokovic is scared of Roddick right now. Djokovic played well vs Nadal, but Nadal is also rusty and not that strong at the moment, and Djokovic feels confident enough playing Nadal on a fast hard court he feels good even while he is not so confident in himself and his game.
theroleoftheunderdog
Professional
i've heard rumors the courts are faster this year. anyone one else hear of this?
THUNDERVOLLEY
G.O.A.T.
Looks like Federer is going to smash his projected draw..
zagor
Bionic Poster
What is wrong with that. He just have a joke draw, and I am a Federer fan. I agree it is a free ride to the final and I am a loving it.
I was just joking because I knew people here would say that regardless.I agree,that he has an easy draw on paper this time,however if Fed is in top form on fast HC most draws would be considered easy for him since out of top players only Murray and Nadal have winning record against him.
grafselesfan
Banned
Del Potro and Murray plays in the quarters.
lessthanjake
Semi-Pro
Since Wimbledon 2003, Federer is 82-1 against the opponents that are in his quarter of the US Open draw. LOL. His only loss to anyone in his quarter was to Blake last year at the Olympics.
And Roddick is arguably the favorite to make the semis over Djokovic since they should both make the quarters and Roddick is 3-0 this year against Djokovic (with all the matches being on hard courts). If that actually happens, then Federer will be a combined 98-3 against the opponents he could face up until the finals. If he faced Del Potro in the finals, then I would just laugh.
Here's what I hope to see for Federer:
Britton -> Greul -> Hewitt -> Blake -> Davydenko -> Roddick -> Del Potro.
That is actually a draw full of GREAT hard court players, but it would be a LOL-fest for Federer
And Roddick is arguably the favorite to make the semis over Djokovic since they should both make the quarters and Roddick is 3-0 this year against Djokovic (with all the matches being on hard courts). If that actually happens, then Federer will be a combined 98-3 against the opponents he could face up until the finals. If he faced Del Potro in the finals, then I would just laugh.
Here's what I hope to see for Federer:
Britton -> Greul -> Hewitt -> Blake -> Davydenko -> Roddick -> Del Potro.
That is actually a draw full of GREAT hard court players, but it would be a LOL-fest for Federer
GraniteHoosier
Rookie
Novak has Roddick, Haas and Kohlschreiber all in his quarter; maybe he'll have a chance to redeem himself from some of his matches earlier this year.
Fed's quarter looks the easiest, although in fairness I think wherever Davydenko ended up was going to look like the easiest quarter no matter what.
Fed's quarter looks the easiest, although in fairness I think wherever Davydenko ended up was going to look like the easiest quarter no matter what.
The fact that Fed has an easy draw depends for 90% on the fact that rafa's in the other half.
West Coast Ace
G.O.A.T.
Halfway down the 1st page for this first childish, predictable comment. Please elaborate on how a draw is 'given' to a player. If you think it's rigged, why do you even watch?Of course, they have to give Fed the cakewalk draw as always.
Not to be outdone in the childish category...
Britton is the NCAA champ. Typical 1st round opponent for a #1 seedSheesh...
What more can a #4 expect? To play all 4.5's until the semis?
Then don't watch - or comment on these boards - you won't be missed.
I will say there are more 'names' on Murray's side. But the eventual winner only beats 7 people. There are plenty of players on Fed's side, IF they are playing well, who can give him problems. I don't see that happening until the semis against Joker or Roddick, but you never know.
West Coast Ace
G.O.A.T.
I agree with the Fed - JMDP final. But it appears - unless I'm misinterpreting your comments - that you have a problem with that. I think they are the best two players right now. Djokovic's game is still inconsistent; Rafa's health is a huge question mark and really doesn't have enough matches under his belt; Murray still hasn't won 'the big one'; Roddick hasn't won 'the big one' since '03.
#16! And the 4th time winning 3 out of 4 majors!
I think some of those people were being sarcastic, because people always complain of Federer getting a "cakewalk draw".
zagor
Bionic Poster
West Coast Ace,I know you don't post here that often so it's not surprising that you don't know but jamesblakefan #1,joeri888 and GasquetGOAT are actually Fed fans who are being sarcastic due to Nadal fanatics(who largely seem to be absent from this forum at the moment ready to come out again if Nadal has a big win or Fed a big loss)constant whining about Fed's cakewalk/joke/rigged draws and similar nonsense.
As I said,most draws are easy for Fed(especially on HC/grass)simply because of the fact that he owns majority of the field.
As I said,most draws are easy for Fed(especially on HC/grass)simply because of the fact that he owns majority of the field.
Federer's easy draw is not due to the players there being poor, it's just that he seems to have gotten all of the main players that have a "mental block" against him in his half: Hewitt, Blake, Soderling, Robredo, Davydenko, Roddick, Verdasco,...
All those guys are very good but they have lost to Federer too often, and beating Federer has become some kind of emotional hurdle that's probably too high for them.
At a slam like this, the only guys with a chance against Federer are the ones without a horrible H2H, basically, the top dogs that have already beaten Federer a few times: Nadal Murray and Djokovic + those that haven't played vs Federer very often, like Tsonga or Simon and that don't show up on the court with memories of 20 match losses including horrible choking.
All those guys are very good but they have lost to Federer too often, and beating Federer has become some kind of emotional hurdle that's probably too high for them.
At a slam like this, the only guys with a chance against Federer are the ones without a horrible H2H, basically, the top dogs that have already beaten Federer a few times: Nadal Murray and Djokovic + those that haven't played vs Federer very often, like Tsonga or Simon and that don't show up on the court with memories of 20 match losses including horrible choking.
clayrules
Banned
I thought you were laughing at Federer's draw
Fedfan1234
Rookie
My prediction for the quarters
Federer vs Soderling
Djokovic vs Roddick
Tsonga vs Ferrer
Del Potro vs Murray
Semi's
Federer vs Djokovic
Ferrer vs Del Potro
Final
Federer vs Del Potro
Winner
Federer
I think Murray has a very difficult draw, close match last year at the US open against Del Potro, Del Potro has improved a lot after this US open and also played a good tournament in Montreal. Played a good match against Murray in the final, he lost mainly due to fatigue. Del Potro is a good player that gave Murray plenty of problems. The winner of this match will play the final, I think Del Potro can and will do it against Murray this year.
Nadal will probably lose to Ferrer in the 4th round like he did in 2007.
I think Djokovic will win against Roddick this time, he played a good tournament at Cincy.
Federer has some tough opponents, but nothing he can't handle. If he plays like he did in Cincy he will be unbeatable.
Federer vs Soderling
Djokovic vs Roddick
Tsonga vs Ferrer
Del Potro vs Murray
Semi's
Federer vs Djokovic
Ferrer vs Del Potro
Final
Federer vs Del Potro
Winner
Federer
I think Murray has a very difficult draw, close match last year at the US open against Del Potro, Del Potro has improved a lot after this US open and also played a good tournament in Montreal. Played a good match against Murray in the final, he lost mainly due to fatigue. Del Potro is a good player that gave Murray plenty of problems. The winner of this match will play the final, I think Del Potro can and will do it against Murray this year.
Nadal will probably lose to Ferrer in the 4th round like he did in 2007.
I think Djokovic will win against Roddick this time, he played a good tournament at Cincy.
Federer has some tough opponents, but nothing he can't handle. If he plays like he did in Cincy he will be unbeatable.
jamesblakefan#1
G.O.A.T.
Someone's sarcasm detector's a bit off today...
It's OK...I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
sheq
Professional
ı agree,, roger's quarter is the easiest by far..he owns all of them in his quarter.. ı dont think so he even will drop one single set through to the semi final..However, ı do not agree with you about simon and tsonga,, roger would destroy them pretty comfortably too because its grand slam and simon or tsonga hasnt proven anything yet..
The only threats for roger are on the opposite side nadal and murray !!!
lessthanjake
Semi-Pro
Oh I dont have a problem with it. I'm a big Federer fan. I disagree slightly in that I think Murray is better than Del Potro, but it is certainly very possible that DP could make the finals.
I just thought it was funny that Federer could possibly end up getting a draw FULL of great hard court players (Hewitt, Blake, Davydenko, Roddick, Del Potro) and yet it would likely be a cakewalk for him because of how much he totally owns those players.
I really want to see Roddick and Murray in the finals. I think Roddick definitely has a shot at upsetting Fed in the semi, and I don't think Nadal will make the final. Roddick will be out for revenge and even though Murray has a tough draw I expect him to handle it. I suppose it will probably be Federer Murray though. One can dream.
RAFAwon09usopen
Banned
No surprise you're discounting Nadal at the earliest possible opportunity, as you know what happens when Federer has to play Nadal in a GS Final.....sorry but Nadal is physically and mentally the freshest player right now, and polishing his game by the week.
RAFAwon09usopen
Banned
You mean Tsonga has Nadal.....Nadal won their last 2 meetings (both on hardcourt).
theroleoftheunderdog
Professional
good to see you've brought your usual garbage from MTF to TT
theroleoftheunderdog
Professional
hopefully you might have a bit of sanity at the end of the us open
RAFAwon09usopen
Banned
I'll quote you on that, thanks.
If you consider a guy like Hewitt to have a 'mental block' against Roger, than pretty much the whole tour has a mental block against Fed except Rafa and Murray. Del Potro is in the other half, so is Karlovic, so is Gonzales, Wawrinka, Ferrer etc.
People keep talking about mental blocks, but Federer has just been ridiculously consistent. Now he's less so, he's starting to get more x-1 h2h's, but in general, Murray and Rafa just are the ones good enough AND having a game that suits Fed less perfectly. You need both to have a good h2h against Federer.
Fedex
Legend
How is the draw made?
You have to admit Federer couldn't have wished for an easier draw.
It's a bit of a stroll to the latter stages whereas Murray's is a nightmare.
Del Potro, Murray, Nadal and co. could be finished by the time they've beaten each others brains out to get to the final.
Is the draw a random picking names out of the hat?
I thought the odd numbered top seeds had to meet eg no1, 3, 5 and so on.
Can someone clarify?
RAFAwon09usopen
Banned
Federer can have all the edges he needs, he won't beat Nadal, and the only guy who has shown the ability to beat Nadal (Murray) has most recently lost to Nadal 6-2 6-1 at Indian Wells.
lessthanjake
Semi-Pro
If you want to play that game, Nadal has most recently lost to Federer 6-4 6-4 in Madrid, and in their last match on a surface even remotely similar to the US Open surface, Federer won 6-4 6-1 (2007 Masters Championship semifinals).
You're right, there's also some guys in the other half that have this "mental block", but not quite as many. Out of the players you mentioned Wawrinka doesn't have it as bad as the others, his H2H is only 1-3, and he beat him this year.
I don't think the whole tour has a mental block against Federer. In order to develop a mental block against Federer you need to have played him a lot and lost almost all the time, with some tight matches where you still came up short. Hewitt's H2H doesn't look too bad at 7-15, but the main point is he's 0-13 since 2003... Yes sometimes he's been blown off the court, but he's also won sets. He even took Federer to a 3rd set tiebreaker a couple years ago, yet proved incapable of winning. On a very big stage like the USO you can be certain that he will choke if given the opportunity to win against Federer in a tight match. Heck he will probably get nervous just serving for a two set lead. It is hard for guys like him to keep "believing" that they can beat Federer, because they have lost to him so often, even when they were playing well and Roger not so well.
And it works the other way too. Federer is more supremely confident against these guys than against someone he hasn't played much against... So if he finds himself in trouble he will get that clutch ace more easily. Because deep inside he knows he owns these guys. I'm sure Federer would have been a lot more nervous going into a 5th set in the Wimbledon final against, say, Andreev than against Roddick, even though Roddick is the better player.
Of course you are right, the level of play also matters... which is why Devin Britton doesn't have much of a chance in R1, even though he's never played Federer...
RAFAwon09usopen
Banned
2007? C'mon, don't kid yourself into thinking Nadal hasn't improved on hardcourts since 2007....
And Madrid? Did you not see Nadal's Spanish TV interview after Wimbledon? He pointed out Madrid specifically saying he shouldn't have played Madrid. If you watched him throughout the claycourt season you'd know this anyway.
Whereas the mauling Nadal gave Murray at Indian Wells was a case of Murray being at his absolute best.
Andhere's where things go wrong.When Wawrinka hadn't won yet, people said he would never beat his gaymate from Switzerland if his life depended on it.. Then he won (on a really bad day from TMF) and he suddenly doesn't have a mental block. IMOthe mental block thing is way overused.Robredo doesn't have a mental block he's just consistent, and consistently not good enough.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Utter bollox. What IW showed is that Rafa's game is less susceptible to 60-70 mph winds than Murray's is. Murray's ball toss went 18 inches in the air that day and his 1st serve average just over 100 mph. Rafa coped better and fully deserved his win, but it was probably the least representative match they've ever played. The next time they play in such conditions, the IW result will mean something - until then; it don't mean diddly.
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Clydey2times
Hall of Fame
Spot on.
Who in their right mind would think that Murray was at his absolute best in the IW final? The conditions alone wouldn't allow for that to happen.
theroleoftheunderdog
Professional
according to rafawonusopen09, nadal had is the best hard court, grass court player, and clay court player of the decade by heads and shoulders
GasquetGOAT
Hall of Fame
Let me see, which one of the banned *********s are you...Mungo? king of ace?....
Wawrinka was what, 0-2 going into that Monte Carlo match. 2 defeats in my book is too little to constitute any sort of mental block. OTOH, take Ferrer's defeat vs Federer last week. Federer was playing poorly but you could see Ferrer wasn't calm enough to take the win. On a crucial point in the third set he went for a ridiculous drop-shot, something he hadn't done in the entire match. You could feel it was a last second decision that was due to him panicking at the prospect of defeating Federer for the first time in what, 9 or 10 matches.
But you are right that there are many other things to take into consideration.
shaysrebelII
Professional
I agree, unless Gulbis somehow finds his game and plays the match of his life against murray, cuz that's one interesting quarter. S&Vers Lopez and Dent against each other in the first round, plus Karlovic...murray's my pick to win, but if he doesn't concentrate early, he could be in loads of trouble.
