Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by jakemcclain32, Apr 13, 2012.
Issie has no chance Tom - he isn't playing.
The winner of the French Open will be Novak Djokovic.
On a more general note, I think the best chance of there being a big surprise winner of a GS this year (I'll define that as anyone other than the Big 4 + Delpo) is by far at the USO. With the Olympics, the schedule from May-August is going to be extremely gruelling and if those top guys continue to go deep in every big tournament, there's a good chance we'll see some burnout/injuries by the time the USO rolls around. I could maybe see someone (probably a big hitter, like Tsonga or Isner) who perhaps won't have played as many matches over the summer taking advantage of that and pulling a shocker. But the Fedalovic dominance should continue for the FO and Wimby (unless Murray finally breaks through at Wimby, but that wouldn't be so shocking).
Well, I would definitely rate Kafelnikov higher than Ferrer and Gaudio. He won 26 singles titles to Ferrer's 14 and Gaudio's 8 and he made 3 Grand Slam finals and won 2 of them including the FO so you can hardly argue with that!
Well, he made 3 Slam finals and won 2 of them so that automatically puts him ahead of Davydenko for overall career results. However he won no YECs and no Masters titles v 1 YEC and 3 Masters titles for Davydenko. He won 26 singles titles overall v 21 for Davydenko who is still playing. So, on the whole, a better player yes, but I wouldn't say the gap is as wide as you suggest.
Overall maybe but Kafelnikov is a clay slam champion and Ferrer is not.
I don't think there is a remote chance of this happening. Doesnt he feel tired :?Although he has supreme fitness but he overplays way too much for a 29 (almost 30) year old :roll: He has been playing all year and now MC, Barca, Madrid, Rome. I dont think he will have enough in the tank to go beyond QF
Ferrer has 14 titles, but 8 have been in the past, what, 18 months?
He's playing his best tennis right now.
All Novak has to do to win is show up and play decently. He's already proven that he doesn't even have to be great to beat Nadal. The only thing that could stop him is another red-hot Fed sighting like last year. Fed's offensive mindset is far more likely to derail Novak than Nadal's defensive mindset. If the rankings hold until RG, Novak really wants to see Muzza on his half. McClain is playing with house money after his epic A-Rod pick, but Ferru will do nothing of the kind and win. He will back up his ranking with a quarter, possible semi showing (if he's in Muzza's quarter and Muzza does a Muzza), and then go home. As they say, this tournament is on Novak's racquet. Unlike 2009, he doesn't even have to pray that Nadal bounces early to pick up his career slam.
Kafelnikov was better than Ferrer but he isnt that good. He is probably the worst 2 slam winner in history, other than Johan Kriek if he even counts (2 Aussies at the time it wasnt a real slam). He never won a single Masters title, that is telling to his true abilities.
As for Davydenko vs Kafelnikov, prime Davydenko has a much better game, but Kafelnikov is mentally tougher.
I've put house money and my money on this one. Ferrer's 33/1 odds of winning. Just put a c note for Ferrer.
and your guarantee is worth as much as AIG's was.
I don't see in what way he was unlucky. The first 2 sets both went to tie-break so it was very tight. He won the 1st and lost the 2nd. If he had won the 2nd set tie-break he would have won the match and the title but he didn't. Murray was too good for him. That he completely ran out of gas in the 3rd was telling and strange considering that he went on to outlast Federer in a 5 set final at the US Open!
Weather was the big factor IIRC. Eastern Canada can get really hot and humid around mid-summer. It was an oppressive afternoon in Montreal and Murray had done intensive training the weeks before in Miami, so he was in a much better position to overcome the heat. In contrast, I remember commentators talking during the 2nd week of the USO about the mild (and rainy) forecast and correctly predicting how it might be critical in helping Delpo win (his fatigue issues forced him to miss Cincy). If the temperatures hadn't dropped so dramatically in NYC that 2nd week, things probably would have turned out very differently.
this would make my day, but I don't think it will happen
The guy has won over 60 percent of his titles in 18 months. It very well can.
He could make the last 4 or even the finals with a good draw. As much as I would love it, all of us know that anything beyond that is just wishful thinking.
I watched that event and the final and IMO he was unlucky to not win. I really thought he played the best tennis of anyone at that event, and his draw was alot tougher than Murray who had Tsonga in the semis as his toughest opponent. He began getting tired late in the 2nd set of the final, which was a factor in him not being able to win the 2nd set as well.
The only reason he's undefeated on clay is because neither Nadal, Federer, Murray, or Djokovic played any of those Latin American Clay court swing events...
This is still the same Ferrer who lost to Jurgen Melzer @ the French 2 years ago...
No it's not. He's been damned near unconscious since then. 3 losses this year...six in the last eight months. Eight titles in 18 months. Way different Ferrer.
Well, they both played comparative nobodies in the first two rounds ( Del Potro played Hernych and Hanescu, Murray played Chardy and Ferrero who I think were ranked higher) . In the quarters and semis they both came up against top 10 players though admittedly Del Potro had the higher ranking ones (Roddick and Nadal) to contend with. However Murray had to face an in-form Davydenko (who would finish the year winning the WTF) and Tsonga who had just beaten Federer so his draw was not that much easier IMO.
Actually he's won 6 titles over the last 18 months; 2010 Valencia, 2011 & 2012 Acapulco (all 500s), 2011 & 2012 Auckland and 2012 Buenos Aires (all 250s).
Who were his 6 losses to?
Will all those guys be playing @ the French Open barring injury?
I rest my case.
Ferrer will not win the French Open. I don't dislike the guy, he's one of the hardest works pros on tour. I very much respect him and his game.
However, you are a troll, and a person I do not respect.
So do everyone a favor and stop wasting our time with nonsensical arguments about how a guy who has never even made a final appearance in a Grand Slam is going to win the French Open, presumably over prohibited favorites like Nadal and Djokovic.
For the record, Rafa Nadal has a 231-18 record on clay, and has only failed to win the French Open one time, since he started playing the event in the men's draw, in 2005...
It's also worth taking a look at Mr. Ferrer's records vs the top 4 men.
Ferrer v Federer - 0-12, including 3 clay court losses
Ferrer v Murray - 4-5, but Ferrer does have 3 clay court wins vs Murray
Ferrer v Djokovic - 5-8, but Ferrer leads their clay court meetings 3-1. However, he has yet to win a set against Djokovic this year.
Ferrer v Nadal - 4-13, with a 1-9 record in clay court meetings for Ferrer. His only win coming all the way back in 2004 Stuttgart, before Nadal really became Nadal.
Maybe you can say he has good shot on clay vs Murray, but that's really it right now. Djokovic is too much improved, and the last Ferrer win on clay over Nole was in 2009..
Just wait in six weeks time Small_Insignificant. Just wait.
There should be some minor forum based punishment if your prediction turns out wrong.
Say... you have to use an avatar of our chosing.
For every incorrect prediction, Jake should make a charitable contribution to the Fedace School of Prognistication at that great institution of higher learning in Palo Alto. I think Fedace spells it Standford University.
Oh I look forward to it.
In fact, I'll put my effing money where my mouth is and I'll wager you a grand that David Ferrer makes it no further than the Semi-Finals of Roland Garros.
Also, insignificant is not really the opposite of dangerous...
Not even a remote chance.
No, but you are pretty damned insignificant in my eyes.
Also, someone here made a good point once. I'm not afraid to put my money where my mouth is, but that kind of wager takes a handshake and a third party witness. You work that out and I'd do it. Otherwise, it's too risky that the loser would be a "flight risk" if they lost.
No, Mel Ferrer, not David.
For some reason I doubt this, but it would be great to see!
Yeah if Ferrer plays Nadal or Federer on clay he has no shot. Maybe he has a small shot vs Djokovic just because of the matchup, but not much. Decent shot if he plays Murray (only on clay of course). However there are alot of others who can take him out even before the quarters, just look at all his past French Opens.
Overall a title run is about as likely as Hayleys Comet.
I've got so many references on the board of transactions I've made in the past 2 years...
Plus I've been on the board for over 2 years with 2,680 posts, and I play the Power Play, Sudden Death and Prediction League Tennis games here...
I'm not going anywhere. It's you that's the flight risk, not me.
Give me time to read these. If you are that legit, we might have a bet
Take all the time you need, the French open is nearly two months away.
I know I have at least 2-3 more, but I must not have book marked them.
You can probably find one or two of them on the first couple of pages, because I just bought 2 sets of wristbands from two different users within the last month.
Ok man...I'll get back to you in 2-3 days. When I get things straight, we'll make the bet official.
^^^^ You two need to get a room.
A Ferrer win would be popular. But highly unlikely unless something much nastier than what was going around the IW locker room breaks out - and David's lung dart habit makes him immune. He will most likely make the QF or SF depending on his draw and lose to one of the top 4.
It would not be the most unlikely but it would still be a huge surprise. In 9 participations, the best Ferrer has ever done at RG is 2 quarters and he's hitting 31 this year. It's also not like he's only lost to Rafa or Fed all these years. He's lost to Ferreira, Benneteau, Ramirez-Hidalgo, Verdasco, Monfils, Soderling, Melzer. What exactly is gonna change at the next edition? How is he going to beat any of the top 4? Or are they all gonna be eliminated by other people? Hard to believe really.
Monfils took him out twice @ RG.
2011 and 2008.
Ok Big_Dangerous, here is what I propose.
In this aformentioned bet...I accept. But I'll make it interesting.
If Ferrer makes the semifinals or less, you have some dough. If Ferrer wins like I think he will, I have the dough. But if Ferrer makes the final and loses...NEITHER of us win. It's tossed and we break even.
How does that sound?
Sounds good to me, I accept.
Now I'll be looking forward to RG even more!
You want my email to keep in touch with this?
Great prep for the RG conquest today, no?
Like, ohmigod, totally +++1 dude! It was totally genius today to watch DF strategically tank his match so that he's got soooooo much left in the tank for bagelling and breadsticking everyone enroute his to his first RG crown!
Like, so, so, soooooo inevitable!
He's making sure Djokovic gets through his draws to tire out the Nadal.
When RG comes.....his only nemesis would Federer and Murray. While Nadal and DJokovic are limping from their 9 hour of matchplay over 3 clay court finals.
Ferrer will pick up the matches he needs at Barcelona.
I think I can e-mail just by clicking on your username, unless you prefer a different address than the one you signed up with. If you want to shoot me an e-mail or something, then that's fine with me.
Yeah, you can mail me.
And that was no strategy. Bellucci pancaked him today. Congrats to him.
I'm still not worried though. Murray got waxed by Garcia-Lopez about six weeks ago or so, and got to the finals of Miami(I believe).
Separate names with a comma.