The YE#1 race and potential RR tanking

Raphael Nadal

Professional
Medvedev is the key, as he's won his last 2 matches vs. Djokovic, so if they're in the same group then Djokovic will probably drop at least 1 match in the RR.
Either that or Medvedev beats Djokovic in the SF.
Whereas Rafa has never lost to Medvedev, beat him easily at Canada 63 60, and led 2.5 sets to love before winning in 5 at USO :)
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Medvedev is the key, as he's won his last 2 matches vs. Djokovic, so if they're in the same group then Djokovic will probably drop at least 1 match in the RR.
Either that or Medvedev beats Djokovic in the SF.
Whereas Rafa has never lost to Medvedev, beat him easily at Canada 63 60, and led 2.5 sets to love before winning in 5 at USO :)
It's by no means a guarantee Medvedev beats Djokovic. Djokovic dispatched him in 4 at AO, and Medvedev did just lose to Chardy. Also, Medvedev nearly came back from 2 sets and a break down against Nadal - so I wouldn't say Nadal is immune to Medvedev.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
Tanking at the YEC is not unprecedented. Lendl admitted to tanking his 1980 YEC round robin match against Connors so he'd have an easier opponent in the semis (it was called at that time The Nabisco Masters).
 

NoleFam

G.O.A.T.
Based on the calculation I'm doing in my mind, if Djokovic wins tomorrow he can still gain YE #1 if he wins WTF without any losses even if Nadal reaches the WTF final. The only thing is that Nadal must lose a RR match for this to happen. That would give Nadal 800 points at the WTF and he would have 1500 points. He would clinch it by 60 points in this scenario.
 

maratha_warrior

Hall of Fame
Based on the calculation I'm doing in my mind, if Djokovic wins tomorrow he can still gain YE #1 if he wins WTF without any losses even if Nadal reaches the WTF final. The only thing is that Nadal must lose a RR match for this to happen. That would give Nadal 800 points at the WTF and he would have 1500 points. He would clinch it by 60 points in this scenario.
If Nadal withdraws from WTF ,and Nole wins Paris masters then he needs to reach semis at WTF to secure YE No1 right ??
 
Based on the calculation I'm doing in my mind, if Djokovic wins tomorrow he can still gain YE #1 if he wins WTF without any losses even if Nadal reaches the WTF final. The only thing is that Nadal must lose a RR match for this to happen. That would give Nadal 800 points and he would have 1500 points. He would clinch it by 60 points in this scenario.
If Djokovic wins tomorrow and Nadal does not play the WTF, then he needs to at least make the final to clinch YE #1. If he wins all RR matches and loses in the SF, he would be 40 points short.
And I thought it couldn't get tighter than it was back in 2016. :D
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
If Djokovic wins tomorrow and Nadal does not play the WTF, then he needs to at least make the final to clinch YE #1. If he wins all RR matches and loses in the SF, he would be 40 points short.
Imagine how nervous all us Nole fans would be before the semifinal if winning it meant he finished the year at #1. :sick:
 

TripleATeam

Legend
If Djokovic wins tomorrow and Nadal does not play the WTF, then he needs to at least make the final to clinch YE #1. If he wins all RR matches and loses in the SF, he would be 40 points short.
Big tournament. Needs at least a final to be #1, but if he wins it without losing, he'll have a 860 point lead on Nadal.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Or maybe he retired here so he would be ready for WTF. He has played very well, so he might think he has a real shot there.
He withdrew, not retired, right, as play hadn't begun yet.
I'm sure he's listening to his body, and not sure if he was thinking specifically about the WTF at the time. A SF win would be worth 240 points plus a place in the finals (an M1000 win and clinching YE#1 - a lot was potentially at stake just in this tourney.)
 
He withdrew, not retired, right, as play hadn't begun yet.
I'm sure he's listening to his body, and not sure if he was thinking specifically about the WTF at the time. A SF win would be worth 240 points plus a place in the finals (an M1000 win and clinching YE#1 - a lot was potentially at stake just in this tourney.)
Not if he couldn't win today. If could have got worse if he played, and he could have had to retire mid match and would be in the same situation without being able to play WTF at all.
 

Tennisfan339

New User
Interesting. I didn't think about it but it sounds credible.
If Djokovic wins the title tomorrow, he'll have 640 more points to make up. If Nadal wins his 3 RR matches, he wins 600 points and MUST lose in SF if Djokovic still wants a chance. If Djokovic wins 2 matches, he'd face Nadal in SF. If he wins the title with 1 loss in RR, he'd get 1300 points. 1300-600=700. 700>640. (If I'm not mistaken)

In brief, if Djokovic wins tomorrow and wins the title in London, Nadal has to reach the final. If Nadal wins his 3 matches but loses in SF and Djokovic wins the title, Djokovic ends the year #1... And if Djokovic loses the final in London, Nadal has win 2 RR matches.

Btw, Even if Nadal withdraws in London, Djokovic still has to each the final no matter what. This battle will be very interesting...
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
By that logical my man you should see this too.

You see some of us here have a sense of humour and we don't tend to worship players we love.

I won't bother anymore.
Am I to understand that the "poetry" (a rip-off Vogon style, no?) is the same as normal posting?

Oh, my, I hope that your "sense of humour" doesn't translate in other analysis, as I can see where that is going, as I said.

BTW, you took it not quite humorously, for someone who sprinkles his posts with "sense of humour". Sad.

8-B
 
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pasta

New User
Nadal is #1 year end !!!

No way Djokovic takes him over at that spot !!!

If he does (no way IMO) Djokovic will be the GOAT ... under pressure delivers ... AKA sweeps !!!
 

terribleIVAN

Hall of Fame
I don't see how an old, recurrent abdominal tear can heal in 1 week, and then allow for intense competition.

Rafa might give it a shot, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him withdraw after the first RR.

He's not going to risk being side-lined for + months at this late stage in his career just for the sake of the number 1 spot.
 
Groups will decide a lot in this and if say nadal gets medvedev, tsitsipas, Berretinni and then goes 3-0 in rr but still he would need to reach final and with federer, djokovic in other group favourites to qualify then nadal needs to beat one of them in semi which is tough considering he hasn't beaten them off clay since many years.Also if he faces federer and djokovic faces Medvedev then one of the things need to happen for him either he wins or medvedev beats djokovic and there is a chance for one of them to happen.If Federer falls in group with rafa then djokovic could control his place in his group and may tank depending on how rafa roger match has gone so all in all interesting times ahead.
 

ChrisRF

Hall of Fame
I actually think Djokovic is well-placed to finish YE#1

He's favored to win both events and at WTF he'll likely get an assist from Federer(in the SF or RR depending on the draw)
But Federer can also beat Djokovic at the WTF. He lost the Wimbledon final only because he felt the pressure. At the WTF there isn’t much pressure, because it is not that important in the big picture of the GOAT race.

For me a Federer/Djokovic match would be at least 50/50, if not slightly in favour of Federer.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Not if he couldn't win today. If could have got worse if he played, and he could have had to retire mid match and would be in the same situation without being able to play WTF at all.
Exactly - I think you misread my point (and maybe, I misread your previous post).
 
Year-end #1 scenarios now:

1. Nadal goes in with a 640-point lead. Each round-robin match is worth 200, semi-final is worth 400, final is worth 500. [N.B. That's a surprisingly small gap between semi and final. In Slams, semis are worth 480 points and finals are worth 800. In MS events, semis are worth 240 points and finals are worth 400. In 500-level events, semis are worth 120 points and finals are worth 200].
2. Unless Djokovic makes the final, he can't earn more than 600 points, and so unless Djokovic makes the final, Nadal is year-end #1.
3. If Nadal makes the final unbeaten, he is year-end #1.
4. If Nadal makes the final but loses a group match en route, Djokovic can be year-end #1 if he wins the title unbeaten.
5. If Nadal makes the final but loses two group matches en route, Djokovic can be year-end #1 if he wins the title despite losing a group match.
6. If Nadal loses in the semis without losing a group match, Djokovic can be year-end #1 if he wins the title, so long as he loses no more than one group match.
7. If Nadal loses in the semis having lost one group match or if he wins two group matches but doesn't make the semis, Djokovic can be year-end #1 if he wins the title (no matter whether he loses a group match or even two en route) but must win the title.
8. If Nadal loses in the semis having lost two group matches or if he wins one group match and doesn't make the semis, Djokovic can be year-end #1 if he makes the final, so long as he loses no more than one group match. In this scenarios, Djokovic is guaranteed to be #1 if he wins the title, even if he loses a group match or even two en route.
9. If Nadal wins no matches, Djokovic is #1 if he makes the final and wins two group matches en route.
 

Crionics

Semi-Pro
IMO, at this point YE1 is Djokovic's to lose. I don't see Nadal doing much at WTF (if he even decides to participate). If Djokovic gets to the final of WTF (and chances are high he'll reach the final), he'll be YE1.
 
It's going to be close now but djokovic has to win the tournament unless rafa withdraws which is unlikely I feel so taking him a guarantee for the win is too much but if he wins no 1 ranking by winning the wtf he fully deserves it considering it's been equally as good year like rafa till now.
 

irishnadalfan1983

Hall of Fame
IMO, at this point YE1 is Djokovic's to lose. I don't see Nadal doing much at WTF (if he even decides to participate). If Djokovic gets to the final of WTF (and chances are high he'll reach the final), he'll be YE1.
Definitely favourite but wouldn’t rule out Nole being taken out by Fed or Med in semi - not complete forgone conclusion he will make final is all I am saying but definitely favourite...
 
4. If Nadal makes the final but loses a group match en route, Djokovic can be year-end #1 if he wins the title unbeaten.

Dream scenario then, Djo vs Nad final showdown.
 

topher

Professional
Tanking at the YEC is not unprecedented. Lendl admitted to tanking his 1980 YEC round robin match against Connors so he'd have an easier opponent in the semis (it was called at that time The Nabisco Masters).
See, this is a serious flaw with WTF format as of now. I say let the higher seeds pick who they want to play. So for 1980 WTF, if Mayer and Connors agreed that they preferred to play each other, they could make Lendl play Borg. They’d earned that privilege.

Now Mayer could have refused, but the mere possibility of that would’ve likely kept Lendl from throwing his match.
 

toxicity

New User
They are equal i think. If Nadal want to be number one he must win 4 of the next 5 matches, he done that only couple times. Djokovic play on his best surface but must win all 5 matches.
 

reaper

Legend
This tournament has thrown up a lot of upsets in recent years. Dimitrov and Zverev have won it. There's potential for tanking, but just as much potential for members of the big 3 to go out early.
 

Crionics

Semi-Pro
Definitely favourite but wouldn’t rule out Nole being taken out by Fed or Med in semi - not complete forgone conclusion he will make final is all I am saying but definitely favourite...
Agree, Fed and maybe Medvedev could take out Djokovic in the semi. Another scenario I was thinking earlier was that both Fed and Medvedev are in the same group as Djokovic and beat him in which case Djokovic wouldn't even make the semi. But I just realized that is not possible given their rankings.
I don't see the other guys doing much against Djokovic.

All in all, I still consider Djokovic to be the favorite to end YE1.
 

jm1980

G.O.A.T.
Agree, Fed and maybe Medvedev could take out Djokovic in the semi. Another scenario I was thinking earlier was that both Fed and Medvedev are in the same group as Djokovic and beat him in which case Djokovic wouldn't even make the semi. But I just realized that is not possible given their rankings.
I don't see the other guys doing much against Djokovic.

All in all, I still consider Djokovic to be the favorite to end YE1.
But a strategic tank from Djokovic would only be used to face Rafa in the semis
 
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Crionics

Semi-Pro
But a strategic tank from Djokovic would only be used to face Rafa in the semis
euh, where did I even talk about a strategic tank? I don't see the point of discussing a strategic tank, since the composition of the RR groups are not known and we don't even know if Rafa will participate at all in the event.
 

jm1980

G.O.A.T.
euh, where did I even talk about a strategic tank? I don't see the point of discussing a strategic tank, since the composition of the RR groups are not known and we don't even know if Rafa will participate at all in the event.
The strategic tank can come into play regardless of the composition of the groups. Obviously, it is predicated on Rafa participating in the event
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
The strategic tank can come into play regardless of the composition of the groups. Obviously, it is predicated on Rafa participating in the event
I haven't read the whole thread, but I would think that a "strategic tank" could only come into play if Novak wins his first two matches in group play, and Rafa would be assured of winning his group. And also, this would be known prior to Novak's last group match. How likely is that?
Playing this out, Novak would now be 840 points behind Rafa, and then would have the chance to win 900 more to take YE#1 by 60 points.

I guess this could happen, but it seems very unlikely, and dependent upon several unknown factors.
 

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
There is no need for any tanking from any player.

Simple.

Because Rafa will most likely get Novak or RF in the semis anyway, which means he loses either way, and the only way he doesn't get them is if Medvedevious is in Novak's group and beats Novak, and wins his other two matches. And since Medvedevious knows now how to play and beat Rafa, even that match isn't a good one for Rafa.

I.e. the odds are very high that Novak even theoretically does not need to tank anything.
 

Rafa24

Hall of Fame
Nadal is #1 year end !!!

No way Djokovic takes him over at that spot !!!

If he does (no way IMO) Djokovic will be the GOAT ... under pressure delivers ... AKA sweeps !!!
he isn't under much pressure as far as paris and london. he is great on indoor hardcourts. pressure was being down match points at wimbledon against fedr and winning.

sadly for rafa fans looks like this stint at #1 is going to be very short lived. I don't think Rafa will even show up and Djoker will likely win and go undefeated.
 
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