Thiem first serve return ready to dominate clay?

[Meles]

Thiem's major weakness in 2015 on clay and hard courts was the first serve return game.
Clay: 30% of first serve points won
Hard: 26%

To put this in perspective the career hard court leaders are Murray and Djokovic at 34 and 33%. Nadal and Coria lead on clay at 39%. All respected names on these surfaces. So, basically in 2015 Thiem was horrible to put it mildly at 8-9% below the career leaders.

For 2016, Thiem's numbers:
Clay: 32%
Hard: 32%

A big jump, but what is even more interesting is this jump did not occur until after the Australian Open. A quick tally of Acapulco, IW, and Miami (reverse order starting with Djokovic match):
39, 79, 39, 12 (Tsonga), 41, 29, 28, 41, 46, 25, 47

The average over these recent tournaments is about 39%! The leaders for the entire 2016 hard court year:

1 Novak Djokovic 36
2 Gael Monfils 34
3 David Goffin 33
4 Roger Federer 33

It seems to be the key to beating Thiem too as Tsonga crushed Thiem and Thiem only got 12% of Tsonga's 1st serve points. Djokovic had all sorts of trouble holding serve against Thiem in Miami.

So Thiem has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the first serve return points won on hard courts in the last month. The question is how much will this translate to the Spring clay court season? (Poll)

 

[Meles]

Certainly hoping Thiem brings an improved first serve return game to Monte Carlo, but I suspect that returning first serves on clay is very different.

 

[stringertom]

It might be different for a match or two as he gets his clay legs but I expect he'll have low 30's % when we get through RG. A lot will have to do with the draws...some cream puffs early might bump it up; some grinder vets might keep it low before the business end of the tournaments.

 

[cc0509]

Would you stop overrating these young guns! None of them are worthy yet. Not one. Wait until any of them can win match after match beating top ten players and wining titles doing that.

There is only one guy dominating everywhere and that's Novak. Until these young guns can beat him and do it day after day in tournament after tournament, all these threads are pointless.

 

[Fedinkum]

All those overrated Djoke threads that have been pesting the forum should be the only topics allowed on TT...

Would you stop overrating these young guns! None of them are worthy yet. Not one. Wait until any of them can win match after match beating top ten players and wining titles doing that.

There is only one guy dominating everywhere and that's Novak. Until these young guns can beat him and do it day after day in tournament after tournament, all these threads are pointless.

 

[Soul_Evisceration]

If there's one area that Thiem needs to work on and that includes Federer is those freaking BP conversion rate when you are facing the Top Seeds. You have to convert these phucking points. It's more important than anything else.

 

[cc0509]

All those overrated Djoke threads that have been pesting the forum should be the only topics allowed on TT...

All of the countless Djokovic threads and the threads about this young gun will do X, Y and Z are equally annoying. In the meantime, the only player who IS actually doing anything and breaking any records is Djokovic. No other players are doing a thing.

 

[Fedinkum]

I agreed with you.
I would even go a step further, let's not waste everyone's time and money, from now on, all tournaments should just have the opening ceremony and skip all matches and jump straight to trophy presentation to the Djoke. It makes so much sense, I can't understand why you and me are the only intelligent persons on this forum.

All of the countless Djokovic threads and the threads about this young gun will do X, Y and Z are equally annoying. In the meantime, the only player who IS actually doing anything and breaking any records is Djokovic. No other players are doing a thing.

 

[Sysyphus]

Would you stop overrating these young guns! None of them are worthy yet. Not one. Wait until any of them can win match after match beating top ten players and wining titles doing that.

There is only one guy dominating everywhere and that's Novak. Until these young guns can beat him and do it day after day in tournament after tournament, all these threads are pointless.

This discussion — the development and stats of Thiem's first serve return — is interesting enough in itself to many, regardless of whether he is "worthy" or never wins a slam. If you have nothing to contribute to the topic other than nonrelated whining, it's fine to just move along instead.

 

[cc0509]

I agreed with you.
I would even go a step further, let's not waste everyone's time and money, from now on, all tournaments should just have the opening ceremony and skip all matches and jump straight to trophy presentation to the Djoke. It makes so much sense, I can't understand why you and me are the only intelligent persons on this forum.

It certainly seems that way at the moment, lol.

 

[cc0509]

This discussion — the development and stats of Thiem's first serve return — is interesting enough in itself to many, regardless of whether he is "worthy" or never wins a slam. If you have nothing to contribute to the topic other than nonrelated whining, it's fine to just move along instead.

It's amazing how small things can amuse some people. If you want to look at the little picture and not the big picture, be my guest. I don't personally see what the point is.

 

[nowhereman]

I'm gonna say around 50%.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

I agreed with you.
I would even go a step further, let's not waste everyone's time and money, from now on, all tournaments should just have the opening ceremony and skip all matches and jump straight to trophy presentation to the Djoke. It makes so much sense, I can't understand why you and me are the only intelligent persons on this forum.

You may be onto something with that. Would definitely save everyone a lot of time. If people still want the tennis, what about holding the ceremony first at the tournaments where he's the title holder? That way, he can be awarded the trophy first, and must physically defend said trophy. Might be a challenge in the short-term, but the fitness would improve even more in the long-term. Especially that Beijing Open one.

 

[Meles]

Would you stop overrating these young guns! None of them are worthy yet. Not one. Wait until any of them can win match after match beating top ten players and wining titles doing that.

There is only one guy dominating everywhere and that's Novak. Until these young guns can beat him and do it day after day in tournament after tournament, all these threads are pointless.

Haha. There on the move cc! Do they suddenly stop improving?

Kuznetsov, Coric, and Zverev are on the rise too in the stats! Whats the fun of predicting Novak goes undefeated for the year? Maybe a young gun or two will soften him up for Wawa again?

 

[cc0509]

Haha. There on the move cc! Do they suddenly stop improving?

Kuznetsov, Coric, and Zverev are on the rise too in the stats! Whats the fun of predicting Novak goes undefeated for the year? Maybe a young gun or two will soften him up for Wawa again?

I don't think I've seen such a young generation of incompetents in all of the years I've been watching tennis.

 

[Meles]

I'm gonna say around 50%.

I thought TTW would have some technical expertise on stroke mechanics and how the hard court and clay court first serve return are different, but at least we have a ridiculous poll to drive cc crazy.

Right now the average says 40% of first serve points won. If you tack this onto Thiem's 2015 numbers that takes him too "conservatively" winning about 45% of return points and a Dominance Ratio 1.35 just behind Nadal's 1.38 career number (which is crushingly high) and leaves Djokovic (and fans) at 1.23 (one of a pack of 2nd best). Ouch! A jump to 36% might get Thiem 43% of return points and a Dominance ratio of 1.27 which is still 2nd for all time greats.

Spoiler

Never fear Djoko fans. Nole was 1.40 DR last year so still favored this year over super Thiem.

 

[Meles]

I don't think I've seen such a young generation of incompetents in all of the years I've been watching tennis.

Finally. You've done it. Something truly quote worthy! You are very wise:

 

[Goosehead]

^^there he is again. mr Disraeli with his big pole in his hand and probably listening to shakatak or shakin stevens.

 

[Meles]

I don't think I've seen such a young generation of incompetents in all of the years I've been watching tennis.

Haha. Its nearly clay season again CC and roast Stanimal on the menu tonight.

Well, the Thiem return game has happened on clay. At Nice in 2016 he won over 49% of return points. With 46% of return points in Rio in 2017 Thiem leads the tour winning 43% of return games (Nadal career average.) First return points won was 39% at Rio and much higher in Nice last year. Thiem won 41.8% of return points at RG last year. Djokovic career is 43.5% (Fed 41.0%). Nadal for his career is 46.6% return points won. If Thiem gets up around 43-44% for 2017 he's going to be a load.

For the record Thiem won 32.9% of first return points in 2016 which was a bit of a dissapointment. He may be finally translating his superlative hard court first return improvement to his favorite surface. At IW in three matches Thiem is around 34% first return level which matches career leader on hard courts.

 

[MLRoy]

I just want to know why Brad Gilbert keeps calling him "Dominique". I know why. He's (Gilbert) a funking idiot. I'm loving this Dominique/Stanislaus match, but I wish he'd call him "Thiem". He'd probably pronounce it "Theme".