Thiem vs Nadal. the Spartacus sequel

[tennisaddict]

Thiem has played every week this year with only week off after Miami and before Madrid. If you're trying to say Nadal's schedule was tougher you're going to lose. Thiem played 5 matches in Rio, so that's more clay matches this season.

Thiem is just getting going with his level on clay right now. It will be higher at RG.

You sure he is not taking a WC into Lyon or Geneva ?

 

[tennisaddict]

Thiem has played every week this year with only week off after Miami and before Madrid. If you're trying to say Nadal's schedule was tougher you're going to lose. Thiem played 5 matches in Rio, so that's more clay matches this season.

Thiem is just getting going with his level on clay right now. It will be higher at RG.

Looks like you are getting your excuses ready if Thiem loses match

Not feeling confident ??

 

[Meles]

Looks like you are getting your excuses ready if Thiem loses match

Not feeling confident ??

Should I be?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Should I be?

How old are u boo bear?

 

[Gary Duane]

True, but he has a great presence on court, he gets the spectators engaged, not just because of his style of play but also because of his personality. I've said this before, but I think he's going to be a beloved character at RG in coming years, a bit like Kuerten was.

I agree. I just hope his results today are simply because of exhaustion, the thrill of beating Nadal in a big match and then overplaying...

 

[Berasategui94]

I agree. I just hope his results today are simply because of exhaustion, the thrill of beating Nadal in a big match and then overplaying...

Maybe a bit of all those, but also because unfortunately Djokovic seems to have a huge match-up advantage against him.

 

[Gary Duane]

Maybe a bit of all those, but also because unfortunately Djokovic seems to have a huge match-up advantage against him.

Well, Novak has a match-up advantage against almost everyone, so unless he is playing way below his peak level, we can't expect him to lose very often.

This year it's been all about whether or not he can get back to a high level, for him. At the moment it appears that may be happening.

He has been Nadal's most dangerous opponent on clay, and people should not forget that!

 

[cc0509]

I agree. I just hope his results today are simply because of exhaustion, the thrill of beating Nadal in a big match and then overplaying...

Exhaustion, lmao. The kid is 7 years younger than Djokovic and at the peak of his career!

 

[Gary Duane]

Exhaustion, lmao. The kid is 7 years younger than Djokovic and at the peak of his career!

Djokovic when he is on plays a clinical game. I have not yet caught the match today. I had to work. I'll do that later.

But Novak not only is able to run down everything, he also plays tight to the baseline, almost as tight as Federer. It's why I think that if he can strengthen his net game, there can be part two to his career.

Thiem takes huge cuts at every ball. His game is based on flat-out intensity. He stands so far back, always has to run like a rabbit. If his energy is down a little bit, he really doesn't have any kind of "cruise control" level.

Even though I am in no way a fan of Novak, the way he sets up and steps into every ball is efficient, and there is not a lot that can go wrong with that. It's how he's dominated so often since 2011.

I don't know what has been wrong with him for the past year, but it certainly looks like that may be over. If Murray snaps back in the grass season, we may be right back to the same Big Four domination that we've seen for so long.

Zverev could ruin that tomorrow, or someone else could be winning RG. But frankly I don't see that happening. Do you?

 

[cc0509]

Zverev could ruin that tomorrow, or someone else could be winning RG. But frankly I don't see that happening. Do you?

NO.

 

[Gary Duane]

NO.

Well, sooner or later someone other than these guys have to win M1000s and major. On that basis I figured that sooner or later Thiem was going best Nadal - which he did this week - and that someone new is going to win a slam. But it certainly is not looking likely this year.

 

[cc0509]

Well, sooner or later someone other than these guys have to win M1000s and major. On that basis I figured that sooner or later Thiem was going best Nadal - which he did this week - and that someone new is going to win a slam. But it certainly is not looking likely this year.

I think if Thiem meets Nadal at the FO, Nadal will wax him. Moya and Uncle Toni are probably looking at the tapes of the Rome match as we speak. The FO is the big leagues. Obviously Djokovic will wax Thiem too.

 

[Berasategui94]

Exhaustion, lmao. The kid is 7 years younger than Djokovic and at the peak of his career!

Not exhausted but Thiem probably was a bit tired like Nadal was already in their match the day before. He's young but it's still tough to play so many top level matches on clay in two weeks. But he didn't lose because of that but because Djokovic completely outplayed him.

 

[zagor]

Well, sooner or later someone other than these guys have to win M1000s and major. On that basis I figured that sooner or later Thiem was going best Nadal - which he did this week - and that someone new is going to win a slam. But it certainly is not looking likely this year.

Of course it's gonna happen sooner or later by default but that's why you have to wait for them to deliver on the big stage. Doesn't matter how many times you and Meles wave statsheets that prove how Thiem is as good as peak Guga, Courier, Muster, Fed or Novak on clay in terms of level of play when all it takes is few great matches in a row from Novak (who has been sucking all year long) for all eyes (including Tio Toni's I assure you) to turn on him as the main threat to Nadal in a blink of an eye, there's a reason for that.

Thiem played a good match against Nadal in Madrid and did very well to beat him in Rome but he needs to either back that up with a deep FO run this year or finally bag a CC masters next year. I like the guy mind you and would like to see him do it but I'll take the wait and see approach to any young (if 23-24 is considered that young to be honest) gun at this point.

 

[cc0509]

Of course it's gonna happen sooner or later by default but that's why you have to wait for them to deliver on the big stage. Doesn't matter how many times you and Meles wave statsheets that prove how Thiem is as good as peak Guga, Courier, Muster, Fed or Novak on clay in terms of level of play when all it takes is few great matches in a row from Novak (who has been sucking all year long) for all eyes (including Tio Toni's I assure you) to turn on him as the main threat to Nadal in a blink of an eye, there's a reason for that.

Thiem played a good match against Nadal in Madrid and did very well to beat him in Rome but he needs to either back that up with a deep FO run this year or finally bag a CC masters next year. I like the guy mind you and would like to see him do it but I'll take the wait and see approach to any young (if 23-24 is considered that young to be honest) gun at this point.

Right on!

 

[Gary Duane]

Doesn't matter how many times you and Meles wave statsheets that prove how Thiem is as good as peak Guga, Courier, Muster, Fed or Novak on clay in terms of level of play when all it takes is few great matches in a row from Novak (who has been sucking all year long) for all eyes (including Tio Toni's I assure you) to turn on him as the main threat to Nadal in a blink of an eye, there's a reason for that.

Amazing that I'm suddenly the same person as Meles. Do you put anyone who looks at stats in the same category?

I have never EVER claimed that Thiem is on the same level as those other players. You have me mixed up with someone else.

I only said that his level has been very high this year, and until this week, who else besides Nadal has been stopping him?

I said to people that we should look out for Nadal and Thiem on clay this year. At that time Novak was playing horribly, and Murray was looking equally bad.

I'm never going to bet against the only guy who has beaten Nadal on clay seven times. But be honest: did you expect peak Novak to show up again so soon this year? And don't we need to expect him to back up a high level match, just as we do anyone else?

 

[Gary Duane]

Right on!

<sigh>

It's no fun here right now. I have you guys beating me up for saying that Thiem has been at a high level this year, and that I expected him to do well.

I've got Meles almost swearing at me for suggesting that Thiem is not the Second Coming.

JEESH!!!!!!!!!

Again, *I* never claimed that Thiem is on the same level as other ATG clay-players. I only said that he might get there.

That's a very different thing...

 

[cc0509]

<sigh>

It's no fun here right now. I have you guys beating me up for saying that Thiem has been at a high level this year, and that I expected him to do well.

I've got Meles almost swearing at me for suggesting that Thiem is not the Second Coming.

JEESH!!!!!!!!!

Again, *I* never claimed that Thiem is on the same level as other ATG clay-players. I only said that he might get there.

That's a very different thing...

It's "ok."

 

[zagor]

Amazing that I'm suddenly the same person as Meles. Do you put anyone who looks at stats in the same category?

I have never EVER claimed that Thiem is on the same level as those other players. You have me mixed up with someone else.

I only said that his level has been very high this year, and until this week, who else besides Nadal has been stopping him?

I said to people that we should look out for Nadal and Thiem on clay this year. At that time Novak was playing horribly, and Murray was looking equally bad.

Okey, so what were you trying to say in this post exactly then (I'm open to the idea that I misinterpreted it):

The true test in 2017 is going to be if Nadal continues to dominate Thiem.

Thiem by my stats has easily been the second best clay player of this year and is very much in the range right now of clay specialists in the 90s.

He has not quite hit the level of peak Fed and Djokovic, but he is very close. Fed is getting too much credit this year on clay when he has not even played on clay.

Djokovic and Murray are simply not major factors on clay this year. It would be a miracle for them to totally turn their play around for Rome and RG. They would have to pull a Stan to do it, but there history does not indicate coming out of nowhere in the manner of Stan.

In the range of 90s CC specialists and very close to level of peak Fed and Djokovic.

I'm never going to bet against the only guy who has beaten Nadal on clay seven times. But be honest: did you expect peak Novak to show up again so soon this year? And don't we need to expect him to back up a high level match, just as we do anyone else?

I expected him to come back at some point (I thought he would catch fire against Nadal in Madrid actually) but even if he had crashed and burned at Rome as well (or if Zverev beats him tomorrow) I still wouldn't have written him off for FO. I've seen great players suddenly catching fire at the biggest events after playing lousy tennis in the weeks leading up to it too many times to be surprised by it. By same token I've seen players look great leading up to a slam then crashing out early.

My point however was more about the weight that the reputation of the proven champion has, there's a good reason Nadal fans (and his team I would presume) consider Novak to be a bigger threat after few great recent matches in an otherwise lousy year than Thiem who was clearly the 2nd best CC player up till Rome. Because we know for certain Novak can and has delivered on the big stages while Thiem hasn't so far.

 

[Gary Duane]

Okey, so what were you trying to say in this post exactly then (I'm open to the idea that I misinterpreted it):

Simply this, which I have said many times:

There is a certain level players reach when they are about to hit truly dominating tennis, and there are roughly three markers:

game%, point%, serving game%.

It goes roughly like this:

54-55% of points, around 60% of games, around 84% of service games won MINIMUM.

But this can't be for a short streak. It has to be for a season.

With those three markers you don't have absolute proof that a guy is going to dominate, but the chances are very high.

You have to remember that this is for the whole season, so "it ain't over till it's over".

One dismal match will pull those stats down, and two or three will tank them.

I don't bother being real exact with these figures until the end of a season because it is such a pain, and you have to keep updating.

So look at Thiem up to this week, 2017:

84% of service games won.

59% of games

54% of points.

I'm getting this right off the ATP profile page. These are round figures.

I have not updated Thiem since Rio, but now I'm curious, so I am updating at this moment:

Yes, up until this week he was around 59% of games. Until this last match he was still at:

58.51%

But with this ONE match today he dropped down to

57.01%

Now, depending on how he does at Rome, he can push that back up again, or it can fall more. And we can't compare his stats to other ATGs on clay until the season is up.

At this moment, no, he is not in the same range as ATG clay players.

Courier won a bit more than 64% of his games on clay two different years.

Bruguera was over 62% twice.

Muster over 61%.

So no for Thiem at THIS MOMENT. He was 100% in the right range up until this week.

But not now...

 

[zagor]

@Gary Duane

OK, now I understand what you're getting at much more clearly.

 

[TahoeTennis]

VAMOS

 

[stringertom]

VAMOS

A donde???