Thiem's Time Has Come

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
His serve didn't look so strong yesterday! Held several games after numerous dueces and broken several times to boot...
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
His serve didn't look so strong yesterday! Held several games after numerous dueces and broken several times to boot...

I didn't see the match, but 21 aces and 84% of first serve points won would suggest to me that maybe his biggest problem was backing up the serve?

Great candid interview by Thiem. Super likeable so hopefully he can get back to winning ways.


Hard not to like the guy – humble and easy-going, the antithesis of some of his unnamed peers:p Cushy draw into the quarters as well. But ultimately I don't expect much till clay season.
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
Just checked his stats from yesterday - only won 38% of his 2nd serve points!?!

Will have to do better than that against a good returner!
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
The way you dismiss that guy in your avatar is quite shocking to me. :eek:

Also, Thiem's refusal to take his lecture from the Guru is rather disturbing.
I guess now that this match is happening I best change the avatar post haste.:eek:
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New one:
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem is presented with an Ultimate clown draw - even Rafa’s draw looks like a draw from hell compared to that - so you can imagine what we are talking here
With the head to heads it looked that easy, but then Kudla's bachkhand came to the match with a multitude of winners.:eek:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@Meles: Certainly a great opportunity for Thiem to make a hard-court major quarter-final, at the very least. On current form, he'd likely have a good chance against Zverev (although Zverev may get a lift if he beats Djokovic), but against Djokovic it would probably depend on how "back" Djokovic really is. Djokovic close to his best is probably too good for Thiem on hard courts. (Djokovic wasn't close to his best at RG and clay is different).
Frankly so far he doesn't look as good as he was on clay last year, but his serve velocity is decent in the event and I'm not fooled by him wearing his grandmother's stocking on his arm.:D Zeddy showed disturbing signs of life in his last match; he could be building momentum and that would be doom for Djoko and Thiemerer.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@Meles, Thiem's time will surely come but I'm not sure about this tournament. He ended last year in a slump and started this year off with a bad cold and had to withdraw from Doha. Even so, he's still in the tournament so let's see how far he can go. I have to say I got a good chuckle from the premature posts thinking Thiem would lose yesterday....Egg..on..face :D

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I haven't run into those, but I've been off forum for a few days. Kudla raining in backhand winners was amazing and Thiem's first set folly was full blown remission and worsening to the bizarre hard courts season from the Summer onwards. Thiem seemingly chokes on serve, but then hard to call it a choke when the guy broke back in the last two following games to get to a TB.:confused:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Well, shouldn't the best kicker of all time be able to win more than 38% of their second serves against an unseeded opponent?
LOL. Was it that horrific for the match?.... It was, it was!:eek: I've got a thread on that:
https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/what-is-wrong-with-thiem.602771/

That is a horrible, horrible sign. My hope is that the melody has been mental given Thiem's spectacular flame outs serving out sets and matches the last half of 2017. I must say I was screaming at the TV when he started hitting his Super Kicker first serve. If this issue is physical then Thiem is damaged goods and 2018 may be a horror show. If it's mental and they fix that Thiem could suddenly be very, very dangerous. All of his other points won stats on return and serve are up, except for 2nd serve points won. Truly bizarre and unprecedented decline of a stat.:oops:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Meles said he had the best kicker of all time
It really was, but then the motion had to be altered for 2017 season due to physical issues. Kickers on plexi-cushion don't kick as high so not a great shot right now. Thiem uses a kicker on 2nd serve and has added a lot of velocity variety for 2018. Unbroken in his first match against an in form player who Thiem had only taken 1 set from in two matches. And now we have the pigeon that roared and three straight breaks to the end the first set for Thiem. The mystery of our times.
Confused04.gif
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
I haven't run into those, but I've been off forum for a few days. Kudla raining in backhand winners was amazing and Thiem's first set folly was full blown remission and worsening to the bizarre hard courts season from the Summer onwards. Thiem seemingly chokes on serve, but then hard to call it a choke when the guy broke back in the last two following games to get to a TB.:confused:

He fought hard though and that was a great comeback from 2 sets to love down.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Seems to be struggling with his 2nd serve, IMHO. I also think he's a fun player to watch.
You'll get some TTW analysis prize if you can figure out Thiem's 2nd serve game. See post below this.
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
The best thing I can say about Thiem after the Kudla match is to quote McEnroe; "Thiem looked like he was ready to go 10 sets." I'm not sure this is even remotely true, but Thiem appears to have made progress on the stamina front which of course is huge as he was gassing a bit against Nadal in those finals on clay in 2017, plus RG and Rome SF with Nole.

The Thiem is doing things to fix the 2nd serve problem from the end of last year (crazy drop to 48% 2nd serve won, down from baseline of 53%.) This manifested itself in spades when Thiem trying to serve out sets or matches. My best guess is that because of his physical issues after the great Super Kicker first serve season of 2016 they changed the motion on the serve and its not the same. Naturally this has effected his 2nd serve. On hard courts opponents are returning Thiem's 2nd serve really, really well and he simply is used to a weaker ball coming back. Instead of defending Thiem just simply goes for way too much on these balls and its bad at end of set because he's ramping up to "Thiem Gold" clutch mode and more prone to over hit.

I'd thought based on his play in 2018, they'd really fixed his 2nd serving woes (Thiem unbroken in his first match), but the first set with Kudla had Thiem in full blown remission unable to hold serve the last three times in the first set. Its not really choking per se as Thiem also broke back twice at the end of set to get into TB. Thiem won 28% of his 2nd serve points in set 1 and 22% in set 2.:confused: For the match the number was 38% and above 55% the last 3 sets. For his match with Manny Thiem won an excellent 60% of 2nd serve points.:p

This whole 2nd serve problem is really an unprecedented situation for a top player (I've never seen such a bizarre dip). The good news is all of Thiem's other hard courts stats in 2017 were up nicely. Thiem is like a grossly undervalued stock right now on hard courts if the 2nd serve problem gets fixed. He has played three players in this event in surprisingly good form:
1. Pella - had only lost one of five sets previously against Thiem plus nearly beat a hot Rublev in Doha. Pella played awesome in their match which was a real crowd pleaser.
2. Kudla - in the first two sets the guy hit 11 stunning backhand winners with only 6 UEs. Kudla ended the match with 15 backhand winners to Thiem's one.:oops:
3. Mannarino - in strong form at end of 2017 which is why he had the seed at this event, but 0-7 now versus Thiem and only won 2 sets in their matches when Thiem was young.

Even with the rough Kudla match Thiem is just under 54.5% points won for the tournament. I don't foresee Sandgren being an issue as his average first serve speed is only 180 kph.

Thiem should make QFs with either Chung or Djokovic who don't have a big enough serve game to stop Thiem from returning well off of first serve (won a whopping 46% of first return points against Manny.) Coming into the QF Thiem should be around 55% of points won which is great and has him tracking towards the minimum number to win a slam (53.5%). Thiem had an excellent off-season which I won't go into again plus of course the new coach Galo Blanco who seems to have Thiem's 2nd serve game on the mend for the most part.;)

@TheGhostOfAgassi approved
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Thiem has everything that's required to be no.1 physically, so he need to work on a few things and then his time will indeed come. He needs to take the ball even earlier than now and should move closer to the baseline on HC and Grass. It would also be nice to shorten and simplify his swing, make it more compact but explosive.
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
The best thing I can say about Thiem after the Kudla match is to quote McEnroe; "Thiem looked like he was ready to go 10 sets." I'm not sure this is even remotely true, but Thiem appears to have made progress on the stamina front which of course is huge as he was gassing a bit against Nadal in those finals on clay in 2017, plus RG and Rome SF with Nole.

The Thiem is doing things to fix the 2nd serve problem from the end of last year (crazy drop to 48% 2nd serve won, down from baseline of 53%.) This manifested itself in spades when Thiem trying to serve out sets or matches. My best guess is that because of his physical issues after the great Super Kicker first serve season of 2016 they changed the motion on the serve and its not the same. Naturally this has effected his 2nd serve. On hard courts opponents are returning Thiem's 2nd serve really, really well and he simply is used to a weaker ball coming back. Instead of defending Thiem just simply goes for way too much on these balls and its bad at end of set because he's ramping up to "Thiem Gold" clutch mode and more prone to over hit.

I'd thought based on his play in 2018, they'd really fixed his 2nd serving woes (Thiem unbroken in his first match), but the first set with Kudla had Thiem in full blown remission unable to hold serve the last three times in the first set. Its not really choking per se as Thiem also broke back twice at the end of set to get into TB. Thiem won 28% of his 2nd serve points in set 1 and 22% in set 2.:confused: For the match the number was 38% and above 55% the last 3 sets. For his match with Manny Thiem won an excellent 60% of 2nd serve points.:p

This whole 2nd serve problem is really an unprecedented situation for a top player (I've never seen such a bizarre dip). The good news is all of Thiem's other hard courts stats in 2017 were up nicely. Thiem is like a grossly undervalued stock right now on hard courts if the 2nd serve problem gets fixed. He has played three players in this event in surprisingly good form:
1. Pella - had only lost one of five sets previously against Thiem plus nearly beat a hot Rublev in Doha. Pella played awesome in their match which was a real crowd pleaser.
2. Kudla - in the first two sets the guy hit 11 stunning backhand winners with only 6 UEs. Kudla ended the match with 15 backhand winners to Thiem's one.:oops:
3. Mannarino - in strong form at end of 2017 which is why he had the seed at this event, but 0-7 now versus Thiem and only won 2 sets in their matches when Thiem was young.

Even with the rough Kudla match Thiem is just under 54.5% points won for the tournament. I don't foresee Sandgren being an issue as his average first serve speed is only 180 kph.

Thiem should make QFs with either Chung or Djokovic who don't have a big enough serve game to stop Thiem from returning well off of first serve (won a whopping 46% of first return points against Manny.) Coming into the QF Thiem should be around 55% of points won which is great and has him tracking towards the minimum number to win a slam (53.5%). Thiem had an excellent off-season which I won't go into again plus of course the new coach Galo Blanco who seems to have Thiem's 2nd serve game on the mend for the most part.;)

@TheGhostOfAgassi approved
Thank you!
Why did his 2 serve get do bad 17?

Wish I had the possibility to watch him this night.
He doesnt have these blips w lower ranked like Sandgren, not worried about that match.
 

TheMaestro1990

Hall of Fame
Down 2-1 against the mighty Sandgren. I mean, even if he comes back and reaches this time, Thiem's HC level is still pathetic.
 

Druss

Hall of Fame
Thiem lost to someone who plays Futures and Challengers, most of us never heard of before. The fact that Thiem is ranked 5 in the world shows how woeful the current young crops are.

Thiem’s time will never come, he may end up winning one FO at best....when Nadal will retire from geriatrics symptoms.
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Thank you!
Why did his 2 serve get do bad 17?

Wish I had the possibility to watch him this night.
He doesnt have these blips w lower ranked like Sandgren, not worried about that match.
Sandgren serve 74% first serves in play and Thiem's serve seemed to degenerate as the tournament wore on. Somehow I suspect part of this was deliverate Bresnik strategy. Sandgren not only wasn't phased by Thiem's power plays, he actually ate them up. Come the fifth set it was Thiem whose serve looked tired, while Sandgren found an even higher gear.

Thiem's clay prospects looking exceptional given Nadal's third straight retirement from a tournament.:eek:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
You're right... He's defending around 3/4 of his ranking points there...
If Clay show flop....thiem way out of top 20
That would only happen if Thiem injured and Thiem wouldn't fall out of the top 20. He'd have to miss the full clay season to fall out of top 20.:oops:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
He's not a fedr fan. I know him very well in real life

Any thoughts on the article?
Just don't get much out of this article. The clay to hard ratio is not exactly revelatory. My original view of Thiem was of a clay courter briefly swayed by some on here to see him as more and his 2016 runs on hard and grass which were very special.
 
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