Thiem's Time Has Come

George Turner

Hall of Fame

ELO is a misleading and inaccurate way to judge a players ability. As an example, at this years AO Berdych was Federers most dangerous opponent according to ELO, ahead of Cilic.

it takes no account of players form at the time, according to ELO the Nadal of 2015 or the Fed of 2013 are the same as any other years in their respective careers.

And it currently has Novak as the highest ELO (which the article says) it's taking no account of his current form or injuries.

And the "overall" ELO rating is complete nonsense that doesn't even take account of different surfaces.

Never trust ELO. instead listen to a ELO song about love :cool:

 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Delpo beat more top 10 players on Hard court this week than Thiem has in his whole career.
And Thiem impressively fought back from a break down late in the 2nd to get set points in the breaker. Thiem is getting close and that much would have been a ball of fun with a third set. Thiem is competitive with peak Delpo at this stage on hard courts, peak Anderson, Fraud, Zverev, and quite a few other top players. At the same time he can perform like a basket case on hard courts (lost 8 of 9 games in Delpo match:oops:). Thiem on the cusp of some nice runs on outdoor hard courts; he's stepped up to the plate nicely in three straight hard court events this year with some fine form.:p
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
ELO is a misleading and inaccurate way to judge a players ability. As an example, at this years AO Berdych was Federers most dangerous opponent according to ELO, ahead of Cilic.

it takes no account of players form at the time, according to ELO the Nadal of 2015 or the Fed of 2013 are the same as any other years in their respective careers.

And it currently has Novak as the highest ELO (which the article says) it's taking no account of his current form or injuries.

And the "overall" ELO rating is complete nonsense that doesn't even take account of different surfaces.

Never trust ELO. instead listen to a ELO song about love :cool:

Once you understand ELO and how its built it has its place. Right now on clay it overvalue Djoko and the rest who really got to beat up on 2015/2016 Nadal. Thiem rolls around and plays a markedly better Nadal with a battered ELO four times in 2017 and doesn't get the ELO boost warranted for the Rome upset. Fed's little run in 2009 overvalued for the same reason. Its not a very good metric for head to head matches in the end, but like ranking is pretty telling in a crude way.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem time has yet to come since we're still waiting for the Big Splash on him winning a Masters or Major on Clay @Meles
Who do you have winning other than Gimpal?
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Btw for anyone who isn't keen on puns, #ThiemThiem=#TeamThiem, same pronounciation ;)
Im on the wagon, it's just not a very epic ride lately. Clay season last year was lit though.
And it will be again this year unless Thiem gets eaten up by NextGen as well.:confused: All Thiem stats on the rise in 2018. Sadly Rafa won't be minding the store at his best with Monte Carlo being his first full event since Shanghai. Thiem's time has come at Monte Carlo, but he'll need some good runs at Miami and IW to keep his momentum going well enough.
 
Thiem's time has come to make a run at a serious non-clay court major.

5. Federer - Thiem's had a good matchup with Federer and probably the more improved since their last matches. Federer has not quite been trouncing heavy hitters like Khachanov and Thiem is ball-basher incarnate, so a repeat of 2016 Brisbane match unlikely.

SF or better quite possible for Thiem at 2018 Auz Open.:cool:

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How can a poster who’s obviously reasonably intelligent and watches the game just be absolutely wrong about everything? Is this some form of meta trolling?
 

FHtennisman

Professional
This pretty much a replay of Thiem's great 2017 on clay and the wagon had emptied by then.:( The original group on the Thiem train shamefully dumped him by the end of 2016.o_O As best I can tell only @TheGhostOfAgassi , @Poisoned Slice , and @MichaelNadal remain on board.:cool:
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Hope Thiem finally gets RG this year, with Rafa being injured and lacking confidence - the title could be there for the taking. Will be interesting to see how MC plays out...
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
ELO is a misleading and inaccurate way to judge a players ability. As an example, at this years AO Berdych was Federers most dangerous opponent according to ELO, ahead of Cilic.

it takes no account of players form at the time, according to ELO the Nadal of 2015 or the Fed of 2013 are the same as any other years in their respective careers.

And it currently has Novak as the highest ELO (which the article says) it's taking no account of his current form or injuries.

And the "overall" ELO rating is complete nonsense that doesn't even take account of different surfaces.

Never trust ELO. instead listen to a ELO song about love :cool:

ELO can be pretty interesting, but it's such a slow acting variable it's pretty ridiculous really. Djokovic is still leading the ELO rankings after having been messing about for 20 months now
 

chut

Professional
ELO works well in chess because most tournaments uses a swiss-system (hence you can evaluate your level against every other opponent) and because you can't get hurt in chess. In tennis, it's not totally absurd, but it's misleading.

Meles will eventually be right on Thiem, he'll probably finally make a deep run somewhere out of clay and he'll happily say "i told you so!!" but man, how many threads to get to that result :eek:
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
ELO can be pretty interesting, but it's such a slow acting variable it's pretty ridiculous really. Djokovic is still leading the ELO rankings after having been messing about for 20 months now

That's both the strength and the weakness of Elo. It doesn't much take into account playing activity or lack thereof, just the quality produced when you actually do play. So in this sense it errs on the opposite side compared to normal rankings.

There, a guy like Novak or Murray might quickly end up underrated (at least for a while) after he's been out of the game for a while. In the Elo rating, they'll stand in danger of being overrated until they actually play and lose several matches. Or Kyrgios, whose slight lack of activity makes his ATP ranking lag well behind the actual quality of play reflected in his Elo rating. One of the most striking discrepancies is between Zverev and Kyrgios: in the ATP ranking, Z is #5 and K #20. In the Elo, K is #8 and Z #10.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
That's both the strength and the weakness of Elo. It doesn't much take into account playing activity or lack thereof, just the quality produced when you actually do play. So in this sense it errs on the opposite side compared to normal rankings.

There, a guy like Novak or Murray might quickly end up underrated (at least for a while) after he's been out of the game for a while. In the Elo rating, they'll stand in danger of being overrated until they actually play and lose several matches. Or Kyrgios, whose slight lack of activity makes his ATP ranking lag well behind the actual quality of play reflected in his Elo rating. One of the most striking discrepancies is between Zverev and Kyrgios: in the ATP ranking, Z is #5 and K #20. In the Elo, K is #8 and Z #10.
Yeah that's also what I like about it. It's really unkind to the real vultures.

Jack Sock is a more extreme case. Peaked at 8 in the world, ELO has him at 29th
 

George Turner

Hall of Fame
Yeah that's also what I like about it. It's really unkind to the real vultures.

Jack Sock is a more extreme case. Peaked at 8 in the world, ELO has him at 29th

Only reason he's eighth though is because of a freak Paris run. He didn't beat good players to get there.

You don't need ELO to determine he's ranked higher than his ability, same with PCB.

There's plenty of other examples of that, such as a guy like Schuettler (2003 year end 6th, never finished another year in the top 30) or Dinara Safina (got to number one out of sheer quantity of tournaments played.) these guys will soon fall back where they belong in the official rankings.
 

EloQuent

Legend
Yeah that's also what I like about it. It's really unkind to the real vultures.

Jack Sock is a more extreme case. Peaked at 8 in the world, ELO has him at 29th
I don't think Sock deserved to be top 10 but I also don't think he's 30 now. The real issue with his ATP ranking is that Paris isn't a 1000, it's a 500. Elo had him at year end of 16 which I think was right. He's flopped a bit since but is he worse than Rublev, Chung, Monfils, Dolgo?

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=6044#
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Delpo beat more top 10 players on Hard court this week than Thiem has in his whole career.
Is this actually true? If so, hahahahahahaha!
And Thiem impressively fought back from a break down late in the 2nd to get set points in the breaker. Thiem is getting close and that much would have been a ball of fun with a third set. Thiem is competitive with peak Delpo at this stage on hard courts, peak Anderson, Fraud, Zverev, and quite a few other top players. At the same time he can perform like a basket case on hard courts (lost 8 of 9 games in Delpo match:oops:). Thiem on the cusp of some nice runs on outdoor hard courts; he's stepped up to the plate nicely in three straight hard court events this year with some fine form.:p
Have you gone mad Meles? :p
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I don't think Sock deserved to be top 10 but I also don't think he's 30 now. The real issue with his ATP ranking is that Paris isn't a 1000, it's a 500. Elo had him at year end of 16 which I think was right. He's flopped a bit since but is he worse than Rublev, Chung, Monfils, Dolgo?

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=6044#
Sock is a motivational basket case. Who really knows his level? I've hardly seen him this year and end of last year was so promising with Berger. Sock was respectable at WTF.:p
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
ELO can be pretty interesting, but it's such a slow acting variable it's pretty ridiculous really. Djokovic is still leading the ELO rankings after having been messing about for 20 months now
And yet his points won is quite strong when he plays. It really comes down to the elbow/serve and he could be back in top 3 form with a snap of the fingers.
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
And it will be again this year unless Thiem gets eaten up by NextGen as well.:confused: All Thiem stats on the rise in 2018. Sadly Rafa won't be minding the store at his best with Monte Carlo being his first full event since Shanghai. Thiem's time has come at Monte Carlo, but he'll need some good runs at Miami and IW to keep his momentum going well enough.
How do you fancy Thiem’s chances at IW with a depleted field? I saw him crush Monfils in person there last year.
 

EloQuent

Legend
Your, your user name is EloQuent, so you must be a massive advocate.:p
I think the math behind Elo is very interesting and that it gives some insights, but it isn't the final word. And most websites that calculate it make their own personal adjustments which make it less scientific.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I think the math behind Elo is very interesting and that it gives some insights, but it isn't the final word. And most websites that calculate it make their own personal adjustments which make it less scientific.
Its a good guideline. For those of us who think Thiem is close on hard courts his poor Elo tells another tale that throws cold water on any hopes for Thiem making SF or better at a major non-clay event.:oops: Of course at the same time it has him set to clean up on clay in 2018.:D
 

EloQuent

Legend
Its a good guideline. For those of us who think Thiem is close on hard courts his poor Elo tells another tale that throws cold water on any hopes for Thiem making SF or better at a major non-clay event.:oops: Of course at the same time it has him set to clean up on clay in 2018.:D
yeah the surface specific rankings are more accurate.
 
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