Thought experiment: respective slam success if Djokovic is six years older and replaces Federer / Federer is six years younger and replaces Djokovic

Do you find this comparison telling as to who the better player really is?

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RS said:
Who played at a higher level?

1. Ferrero RG 2003 final or Djokovic Wim 2018 SF
2. Djokovic Miami 2011 final or Federer Wim 2004 final
3. Kyrgios Miami 2017 SF or Djokovic RG 2021 SF
4. Federer USO 2005 final or Federer Wim 2007 final
5. Federer USO 2005 SF or Federer RG 2011 SF
6. Nadal RG 22 final or Agassi USO 04 QF
7. Federer AO 13 QF or Nadal Wim 06 final
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Djokoivc
Federer
Djokovic
Fed 07
2005
Agassi
Nadal
 
The Guru said:
Quite the coincidence how over 20 years no one ever seems to be at their best when they play a certain someone. Most curious.
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This is a strawman. I think any honest Federer fan would admit that Federer had the early advantage in the rivalry. It is also true that Djokovic had the advantage for the vast majority of the rivalry. To deny this is intellectually dishonest because it contradicts basic rules of biology, maths and the history of the sport.
 
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Sport said:
Federer aged 36 only reached 1 Slam final between the USO 2017 and the USO 2018 (and he didn't fake Nadovic in those Slams). So he was not stopped by "younger ATGs", he simply didn't have the longevity of Novak (2 Slams and 3 Slam finals won aged 36).
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Yep, Federer having just turned 37 lost to Millman and right before turning that age to Anderson at his best slam. I don't know how Djokovic will do this year but when he loses it will be to Alcaraz or Sinner or Medvedev, not to players at the level of those guys. Federer had great longevity though, but not quite like Djokovic unless the latter faces a DRASTIC decline next year.
 
BauerAlmeida said:
Yep, Federer having just turned 37 lost to Millman and right before turning that age to Anderson at his best slam. I don't know how Djokovic will do this year but when he loses it will be to Alcaraz or Sinner or Medvedev, not to players at the level of those guys. Federer had great longevity though, but not quite like Djokovic unless the latter faces a DRASTIC decline next year.
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OTOH, Fed performed better at 29-30 than Djokovic.
 
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mike danny said:
Exactly, so why are you bringing up early Federer? Might as well punish Djokovic for not winning slams at 17-18 like Becker.
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Because they say Djokovic had an advantage being the youngest, which is partly true, but Federer had advantage being the oldest too and didn't fully take advantage unlike Djokovic.
 
BauerAlmeida said:
Because they say Djokovic had an advantage being the youngest, which is partly true, but Federer had advantage being the oldest too and didn't fully take advantage unlike Djokovic.
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He wouldn't have taken advantage like Djokovic anyway. Was not going to win more than 3 slams at best.
 
mike danny said:
He wouldn't have taken advantage like Djokovic anyway. Was not going to win more than 3 slams at best.
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2002/2003 AO
2003/2004 RG
2001/2002 W
2001/2003 USO

8 slams left on the table possibly 9. Don’t think he wins more than half if he enters his prime earlier.
 
Silentchimera said:
Djokovic of 07-10 in 01-04 would not do any better than Federer. Form is only good enough for 02AO, 02RG, 03USO, 04USO.
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It’s not really a fair comparison because there’s no way Djokovic plays as badly in 09-10 without Nadal and Federer around.
 
Silentchimera said:
Djokovic of 07-10 in 01-04 would not do any better than Federer. Form is only good enough for 02AO, 02RG, 03USO, 04USO.
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Djokovic in 2007 and 2008 lost only to Federer and Nadal in 7 out 8 slams, he would have won many of those without them around. And the other defeat was Safin, so it's not like he was losing to a clown. He won many M1000 during that period, beating Federer and Nadal, while Federer had won only one M1000 before 2004. He also won the TMC in 2008. Even in 2009 when he was in a slump, he pushed Nadal to the limit in Madrid having 3 MPs (who else would have been able to do so?). And in 2010 being in a bigger slump managed to beat Federer at the USO.
 
AnOctorokForDinner said:
Assuming slam performances stay identical with respect to age for the sake of comparison, of course.

Which slams does Djokovic win in this hypothetical?

2007 Djokovic in 2001:
AO, RG, WB - obviously no
USO - no (loses to pre-final Sampras or Hewitt)

2008 Djokovic in 2002:
AO - obviously yes
RG - probably yes (beats Costa, probably beats pre-final Ferrero)
WB - obviously no
USO - no (loses to Sampras, probably Agassi and Hewitt too)

2009 Djokovic in 2003:
AO, RG, WB - obviously no
USO - probably no (I think he loses to Roddick but let's count it as a possibility to be generous)

2010 Djokovic in 2004:
AO - no (given he wilted vs Tsonga, Hewitt/Nalbandian/pre-final Safin/Agassi/Roddick should be too much)
RG - no (loses to pre-final Coria/Gaudio)
WB - no (loses to Roddick/Hewitt)
USO - probably no (I think he loses to Agassi but let's count this as a possibility)

2011 Djokovic in 2005:
AO - yes (beats Safin in epic 5)
RG - no (Nadal is already there and too strong)
WB - yes
USO - yes

2012 Djokovic in 2006:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB - yes (should beat Greendal in a competitive match)
USO - yes (no wind in this scenario and pre-wind Djokovic was peak)

2013 Djokovic in 2007:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB - no
USO - I think yes (struggles against Roddick and his younger self but beats them like he beat Wawrinka)

2014 Djokovic in 2008:
AO - no (loses to his younger self)
RG - no
WB - no (if Aulderer takes him to five there's no beating peakdal)
USO - maybe (given 2014 Noel lost to Nishikori, a loss to pre-final Murray or Djoko's younger self is on the cards)

2015 Djokovic in 2009:
AO - probably no (peakdal too good for strugglevic I reckon)
RG - probably yes (should beat del Potro in five aided by matchup)
WB - yes (roddick no slouch but peakovic too good)
USO - yes (beats Delpo again)

2016 Djokovic in 2010:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB, USO - obviously no (can't compete with peakdal in that form)

2017 Djokovic in 2011:
no slams obviously

2018 Djokovic in 2012:
AO, RG - obviously no
WB - maybe (50/50 vs Murray perhaps)
USO - maybe (loses to his 2012 self pre-final but if he's in the other half he could beat Murray and his younger self in the wind perhaps)

2019 Djokovic in 2013:
AO - maybe? (comes to 2013 vs 2019 Djokovic, far tougher draw in 2013 but the way he thumped Nadal in 19 was quite impressive so I don't know)
RG - no
WB - no (given the messy 2019 final he's not beating Murray there)
USO - no

2020 Djokovic in 2014:
AO - no (loses to his 2014 self, Wawrinka or pre-final Nadal)
RG - no
WB - doesn't exist in 2020 but likely no anyway
USO - not if he gets DQ'd

2021 Djokovic in 2015:
AO - no (loses to his 2015 self)
RG - no (loses to his 2015 self or Wawrinka most likely)
WB - no (loses to his 2015 self)
USO - no (loses to his 2015 self)

2022 Djokovic in 2016:
AO - would play without the vaccine debacle but loses to his 2016 self anyway
RG - no (loses to his 2016 self, possibly pre-final Murray/Wawrinka also)
WB - no (loses to Murray)
USO - would play without the vaccine debacle and may or may not win against his 2016 self and Wawrinka

2023 Djokovic in 2017:
AO - yes (beats Wawrinka/Nadal in a competitive match as Fed did)
RG - no
WB - yes (2017 field was quite weak, think none barring Fed - who is replaced here - were even up to Karl's level)
USO - probably no (I think he loses to 2017 Nadal but let's consider this a possibility)

Result:
6-8 AO
0-2 RG
4-5 WB
4-10 USO (what a wild range, speaks to Djoko's consistency but lack of sustained peak)
total: 14-25

--------

Now which slams does Federer win in this hypothetical?

2003 Federer in 2009:
AO, RG - obviously no
WB - yes (beats his 09 self and Roddick)
USO - obviously no

2004 Federer in 2010:
AO - probably yes (I think he beats his 2010 self)
RG - no
WB - yes (beats Nadal in a tough match)
USO - probably yes (I think he beats Nadal but let's consider this a possible loss)

2005 Federer in 2011:
AO - yes (beats his 2011 self and Murray easy)
RG - no
WB - yes
USO - yes

2006 Federer in 2012:
AO - probably no (loses to Nadal in that up-and-down form I suppose, but a win is possible)
RG - no
WB - yes
USO - yes

2007 Federer in 2013:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB - yes
USO - probably yes (suppose a loss to Nadal is also possible)

2008 Federer in 2014:
AO - maybe (Wawrinka and pre-final Nadal tough obstacles)
RG - no
WB - yes (beats his 2014 self)
USO - yes (beats Cilic and co)

2009 Federer in 2015:
AO - yes (beats Wawrinka and Murray)
RG - probably yes (should beat Wawrinka)
WB - yes (beats his 2015 self)
USO - yes (beats his 2015 self)

2010 Federer in 2016:
AO - yes (beats his 2016 self and Murray)
RG - maybe (may lose to pre-final Murray/Wawrinka but beats final Murray and co, I think)
WB - no (loses to Murray)
USO - maybe (I think he beats 2016 Djokovic and Wawrinka, but not a given)

2011 Federer in 2017:
AO - yes (beats his 2017 self and Nadal, there I said it)
RG - no
WB - yes (no peak tsonga to upset him in the 2017 field)
USO - yes (beats 2017 Nadal)

2012 Federer in 2018:
AO - yes (beats his 2018 self)
RG - no
WB - yes (beats 2018 Nadal)
USO - maybe (may or may not beat 2018 del Potro)

2013 Federer in 2019:
AO - maybe (even that Federer could probably wear down 2019 AO Nadal)
RG, WB, USO - obviously no

2014 Federer in 2020:
AO - probably yes (I think he beats Thiem and co, but not an autowin probably)
RG - no
WB - N/A (sad)
USO - probably yes (may lose to Thiem pre-final but beats him in the final and beats the rest)

2015 Federer in 2021:
AO - obviously no
RG - no (though I imagine the Nadal match would be actually competitive)
WB - yes
USO - yes

2016 Federer in 2022:
AO - yes (Med/Nadal wouldn't be getting a set off peakovic I bet)
RG - absent
WB - maybe (the 2022 field is so poor even Hobblerer could beat it unless he collapses, which is possible I suppose)
USO - absent

2017 Federer in 2023:
AO - yes
RG - absent (though I imagine he may play knowing that Nadal is absent, but let's keep the comparison clean)
WB - yes
USO - maybe (don't trust Medvedev/Alcaraz here)

TBD:
2018 AO in 2024, 2019 RG/WB in 2025, other post-2017 showings are not slam-winning forms in any case

Result:
8-13 AO
0-2 RG
11-12 WB
6-12 USO
total: 25-39 + 0-3 TBD (massive range here, speaks to Federer's consistency and being tough to put away)

Nice to have the difference spelled out so clearly. I didn't engineer the results before I did the count, if you're wondering. Looks like Djokovic is trailing pretty strongly in this age-adjusted hypothetical. What it tells us, hmm?
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If Octorok was wheels, we would have a bicycle for Dinner.
 
Mivic said:
It’s not really a fair comparison because there’s no way Djokovic plays as badly in 09-10 without Nadal and Federer around.
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Haha, exactly, this is why this scenarios don't really make much sense. In 2009 Djokovic was going toe to with Nadal on clay. So he was obviously on slam-winning level, just because he lost to Kohlschreiber doesn't mean he would have lost to other players and wasn't capable of winning RG without Nadal around.
 
Mivic said:
It’s not really a fair comparison because there’s no way Djokovic plays as badly in 09-10 without Nadal and Federer around.
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Yeah this is a good point 08 Djokovic is a dominant world number 1 in 2002 with a solid shot at a 3 slam season. There's no way a Novak in that spot hires a new coach goes back to the drawing board and destroys his game trying to find new ways to win. We likely see a smoother transition from pre-prime and a Djokovic steadily improving from what he was at 21 to what he becomes at 24 would dominate in 03 and 04.
 
The Guru said:
Yeah this is a good point 08 Djokovic is a dominant world number 1 in 2002 with a solid shot at a 3 slam season. There's no way a Novak in that spot hires a new coach goes back to the drawing board and destroys his game trying to find new ways to win. We likely see a smoother transition from pre-prime and a Djokovic steadily improving from what he was at 21 to what he becomes at 24 would dominate in 03 and 04.
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What chance you giving USO 07 Djokovic to win USO 01?
 
RS said:
What chance you giving USO 07 Djokovic to win USO 01?
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Very good chances. He's better than Hewitt in many departments in which the Australian excelled at (RoS, movement, defense).

He had already won M1000s on HC by that point beating Federer, Nadal, Roddick, Nalbandian, etc.
 
wang07 said:
Agree with just about everything, and what it shows is what most people already know, but some will never concede; it was all about age all along. It didn't matter whether Djokovic could dethrone Nadal at RG 13, or how the peak Fedal rivalry culminated in 08-09, because ultimately the youngest player gets to play Tsitsipas, Ruud, Medvedev, Shelton, Paul and Kyrgios in SFs and finals (and it goes well beyond that, as we all know).

Given we're talking about not only ATGs, but players capable of sustained ATG level for 5-6 consecutive years at their peaks, unquestionably it is best to play in a weaker era when you're well into your 30s (still not far off ATG level, but far enough that you wouldn't hold up against true ATG level competition).

Imagine if Fed, after that masterclass vs. Murray in 2015, went on to bagel Berrettini in the final instead of facing Peakovic. He could say he's better than ever and get away with it - same way Djokovic sort of does because he's never truly tested. That really is the only difference here, NOT the level of play.

Federer was going to win at least 10-12 slams during his peak years, regardless of the level of competition. It's those 5-7 years after they turned 30 what really matters. Djokovic won 12 slams since 2018, but Fed could just as easily do the same. Plus, Djokovic at his peak lost 5 slams to Murray and Stan, that's simply not happening to Fed.

1 more thing: The "b-but Fed lost to Berdych and Seppi!!" argument doesn't make sense either. Yeah, Fed did have some awful slams, but many times he just ran into respectable, if not great competition. For instance, if 2014-2015 Fed plays in 2020-2021, there are simply no redlining, ATG level non-ATGs in any of these slams, like 14 USO Cilic, or 15 RG Stan.

Djokovic's unprecedented success from 2018 to today is wrong and fraudulent in so many ways, which is why his fans are STILL on the defensive and so desperate to restrict every single conversation to nothing beyond raw numbers and records - because that's the only context in which Djokovic's success holds up. Go just a step further, and it falls apart entirely. No sensible counterarguments, just the same ELO charts and inflated CYGS attempts bluntly repeated over and over again.
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The 18 months from January 2017 to July 2018 should have been the nail in the coffin for anyone trying to argue that today's next gen are worthy contenders.

Murray and Djokovic injured, Nadal and Federer returning from surgery, what more perfect opportunity could there have been for the next gen to come along and start winning trophies?

Oh no, didn't happen. Instead the previous generation came back and won everything for a year and a half.
 
Silentchimera said:
No chance. Swapping Djokovic into Federer's draw he has to go through Agassi, Sampras, Safin and Hewitt.
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Again, that’s not a fair way to evaluate these things. Federer wasn’t winning that event regardless of the draw whereas there are plenty of draw configurations that would give Djokovic a pretty decent chance. Best way to evaluate these things is in terms of cumulative expected winning probability where the draw is a random variable influencing said winning probability rather than something which is being held fixed.
 
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Mivic said:
Again, that’s not a fair way to evaluate these things. Federer wasn’t winning that event regardless of the draw whereas there are plenty of draw configurations that would give Djokovic a pretty decent chance. Best way to evaluate these things is in terms of cumulative expected winning probability where the draw is a random variable influencing said winning probability rather than something which is being held fixed.
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But Fed could've gone deeper had he had an easier 4th round at the USO for example. People usually bundle 2001-2002 Fed into one, but he was decent in 2001 in slams, while dreadful in 2002. That's when he was miserably failing.
 
Mivic said:
Again, that’s not a fair way to evaluate these things. Federer wasn’t winning that event regardless of the draw whereas there are plenty of draw configurations that would give Djokovic a pretty decent chance. Best way to evaluate these things is in terms of cumulative expected winning probability where the draw is a random variable influencing said winning probability rather than something which is being held fixed.
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True enough but Djokovic would have to face pre-final Sampras/Hewitt anyway.
 
Mivic said:
Again, that’s not a fair way to evaluate these things. Federer wasn’t winning that event regardless of the draw whereas there are plenty of draw configurations that would give Djokovic a pretty decent chance. Best way to evaluate these things is in terms of cumulative expected winning probability where the draw is a random variable influencing said winning probability rather than something which is being held fixed.
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I will say though that 2007 Djokovic would surely have the benefit of being higher ranked than 2001 Fed so he'd avoid those difficult draws that Fed had. Whether he'd make it count is anyone's guess, but he'd have that advantage.
 
RS said:
That looks pretty tough on paper. He might be on the other half though but that still would require Hewitt and Sampras.
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If the draws were totally redone Sampras most likely wins the whole thing instead. Djokovic would still most likely have to go through two of Sampras, Safin, Hewitt and Agassi B2B. Other dangerous opponents are Rafter, Roddick, Federer and Kafelnikov. I can't see 07 Djokovic winning this at all.
 
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I don't care how many slams Djokovic or Nadal win. It was always about the aesthetic quality of the play to me, not just robotically winning the most.

This is what is wrong with pro sports in general, this mindless fandoms of a team or player as long as 'they just win' with no regard to the quality of play.
 
smoledman said:
I don't care how many slams Djokovic or Nadal win. It was always about the aesthetic quality of the play to me, not just robotically winning the most.

This is what is wrong with pro sports in general, this mindless fandoms of a team or player as long as 'they just win' with no regard to the quality of play.
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I saw tennis when fed was playing and I was never interested in it. Too gentle for me.

But seeing Rafole battle it out made me fan of tennis. Just because you don't like Djokovic style of play doesn't mean others won't. There is a great entertainment in Djokovic hitting strong from BOTH wings and outhit most players on tour. Some of his best matches have been vs very hard hitters like Del Potro where it's bizarre how he kept matching shot for shot vs such a hard hitter.
 
NatF said:
Federer having the most high level slam runs, in totality, shouldn't be controversial though I know it will be.
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The LIES keep getting exposed by simple truths.

Djokovic most slams
Most finals
Most semis
Most quarters very soon ( banned defaulted cancelled , missed a lot )
Most match wins very soon

At the same age Djokovic won 24 slams fed won 19
Djokovic reached 36 finals fed reached 30

This is after the bans defaults and cancellations.

So saying fed had MORE high level slam run is obvious lie. @Sport do you agree?

I think this is problem with members here. They write with such an authority while ignoring basic numbers. Fed had only numbers during 2010s. Djokovic matched him for consistency until 2016. But Federer had high domination because of weak era. And Djokovic playing entire top level in strong era.

But when Djokovic weak era came he blew Federer out of water. All the early losses of Federer to players like Berdych Tsonga and others who are not top tier players was his undoing.

At too level Djokovic is ahead of Federer round by round. It's only some early success fed had that is above Djokovic and that depends on WHEN each had their own weak era. Eg. Now Djokovic had made 9 of the past 10 slam finals. 1 loss was to Nadal in RG earlier.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
The LIES keep getting exposed by simple truths.

Djokovic most slams
Most finals
Most semis
Most quarters very soon ( banned defaulted cancelled , missed a lot )
Most match wins very soon

At the same age Djokovic won 24 slams fed won 19
Djokovic reached 36 finals fed reached 30

This is after the bans defaults and cancellations.

So saying fed had MORE high level slam run is obvious lie. @Sport do you agree?

I think this is problem with members here. They write with such an authority while ignoring basic numbers. Fed had only numbers during 2010s. Djokovic matched him for consistency until 2016. But Federer had high domination because of weak era. And Djokovic playing entire top level in strong era.

But when Djokovic weak era came he blew Federer out of water. All the early losses of Federer to players like Berdych Tsonga and others who are not top tier players was his undoing.

At too level Djokovic is ahead of Federer round by round. It's only some early success fed had that is above Djokovic and that depends on WHEN each had their own weak era. Eg. Now Djokovic had made 9 of the past 10 slam finals. 1 loss was to Nadal in RG earlier.
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None of this counters my actual point. You Nole fans are basically just rabbid dogs at this point.
 
Who played at a higher level?

1. Federer Wim 15 final or Djokovic RG 12 QF
2. Federer AO 05 SF or Nadal RG 05 SF
3. Puerta RG 05 final or Roddick USO 07 QF
4. Djokovic Wim 14 final or Del Potro RG 09 SF
5. Djokovic Wim 14 final or Wawrinka AO 13 4R
6. Agassi USO 01 QF or Djokovic AO 19 final
7. Sod RG 10 QF or Nadal RG 20 final
 
How do you come up with such questions? There is absolutely no way to tell. Different years different surfaces different opponents. Correct answer is no one.
 
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