Thought experiment: respective slam success if Djokovic is six years older and replaces Federer / Federer is six years younger and replaces Djokovic

[RS]

How do you come up with such questions? There is absolutely no wayto tell. Different years different surfaces different opponents. Correct answer is no one.

I am a spam bot.

 

[NatF]

Who played at a higher level?

1. Federer Wim 15 final or Djokovic RG 12 QF
2. Federer AO 05 SF or Nadal RG 05 SF
3. Puerta RG 05 final or Roddick USO 07 QF
4. Djokovic Wim 14 final or Del Potro RG 09 SF
5. Djokovic Wim 14 final or Wawrinka AO 13 4R
6. Agassi USO 01 QF or Djokovic AO 19 final
7. Sod RG 10 QF or Nadal RG 20 final

 

[RS]

Noticed you seem to go against 18-20 Nadal at RG in a lot of these (seemingly even 17 too) in most of these NatF even though obviously even you probably are looking at it a lot from a competition lense.

 

[NatF]

Noticed you seem to go against 18-20 Nadal at RG in a lot of these (seemingly even 17 too) in most of these NatF even though obviously even you probably are looking at it a lot from a competition lense.

I don't rate late career Nadal that highly even at RG.

 

[RS]

I don't rate late career Nadal that highly even at RG.

That is what I was thinking originally but it seemed the extent of it more recently was more than I thought originally which is why I asked.n

 

[-NN-]

This is cool. I think the forum bosses should create a new sub forum for fan-fics. It's popular in the world of drama, but it's also prevalent in sports debates. We could then also separate reality from fiction and give the boards a clearer sense of direction.

(I guess that in the case of fantasy based on real events we might call it fan-faxs.)

 

[fedfan24]

2007-2010 Djokovic in 2001-2004

2001:
Decent chance at USO
2002:
Wins AO. Decent chance at other 3. Probably wins 2/4.
2003:
Small chance of USO
2004:
0 slams.

Probably 3-4 slams.

 

[NatF]

That is what I was thinking originally but it seemed the extent of it more recently was more than I thought originally which is why I asked.n

2017-2020 Nadal at RG versus 2004-2007 Fed at Wimbledon, who was better? For me Fed by a lot.

 

[RS]

2017-2020 Nadal at RG versus 2004-2007 Fed at Wimbledon, who was better? For me Fed by a lot.

I wasn't even thinking about a comparison with 04-07 Fed on grass there. Fed was closer to his physical peak there though.

 

[fedfan24]

2017-2020 Nadal at RG versus 2004-2007 Fed at Wimbledon, who was better? For me Fed by a lot.

2017>2007 but 2003-2006>2018-2020

 

[GabeT]

Hypothetical Fed remains unbeaten and holds all the records

 

[GabeT]

I think this is problem with members here. They write with such an authority while ignoring basic numbers.

TTW in a nutshell

 

[GabeT]

Looks like Djokovic is trailing pretty strongly in this age-adjusted hypothetical. What it tells us, hmm?

It tells us you may be stuck on stage 2

5 stages of grief: Novak GOAT edition

Denial: Novak will never even come close to winning as many slams as Fedal
Anger: Novak simply vultured his slams <- YOU ARE HERE
Bargaining: OK, let’s accept he won all he did but no pretty backhand
Depression: I can‘t believe Novak will end up as GOAT
Acceptance: He is the One

 

[socallefty]

If he is younger, will Federer still have a weaker BH and a return that is ranked #100 on the ATP career leaderboard? Then it would have been tougher for him to win as many Slams in his twenties.

 

[RS]

2017>2007 but 2003-2006>2018-2020

Would probably agree with this

 

[Deleted member 779124]

Nadal still felt untouchable in RG 2017 but in 2018-2020 felt like he was more down to earth IMO but that's still great because it's Nadal.

 

[Red Rick]

The truth is being the youngest of the Big 3 was always the golden ticket in the Slam race.

Yeah, I'm sure skipping clay and then losing to a Juan handed Del Potro is equivalent to winning 3 Slams and a final in a season.

But really nothing disproves the idea they age the same more than that Nadal never beat Federer on HC after 2014.

 

[Sudacafan]

This is not a though experiment, it's a time experiment.

 

[RS]

Yeah, I'm sure skipping clay and then losing to a Juan handed Del Potro is equivalent to winning 3 Slams and a final in a season.

But really nothing disproves the idea they age the same more than that Nadal never beat Federer on HC after 2014.

Djokovic Alcaraz Wim 2023 F or Del Potro Federer USO 09 F?

 

[Silentchimera]

I'm going to repost something i wrote in another thread considering this thread is more suitable.

There sure are plenty of posters here who like to hand-wave away these kinds of hypotheticals, age for age form and competition comparisons. I find it incredibly amusing because many of these posters have a history of engaging in hypotheticals and comparisons when they are favourable to their favourite player.

Hand-waving is frequently used in low quality debates and there is no surprise why some posters are notorious for doing this. When hand waving lacks the flavour of the day we will usually get hilariously biased takes, intellectual dishonesty and pure comedy value. One of my favourites is that Federer was peak at 14,15,19 Wimbledon.

One line of argument will try and have you believe its not possible to predict Djokovic will beat a 5ft tall qualifier with an injury in the 1st round at Wimbledon. I've been told thats because my prediction is unprofitable when precisely the opposite is true. You can't make money from an easy prediction because (drumroll) IT IS AN EASY PREDICTION! Everyone knows that 9999/10000 times Djokovic will win the match. That is what is called the risk return trade-off. The shorter or longer the odds the more certain the prediction will be and vice-versa.

The reason we get these predictable responses to hypotheticals and comparisons is because they prove that the numbers do not tell us the full story. We can never create a perfectly balanced lab environment for the players to compete in and therefore we need context. If context had no value nobody would watch the matches and tennis wouldn't exist.

 

[Silentchimera]

I also wrote this in response to another poster who acknowledged the truth that Federer's age put him at a disadvantage compared to Nadal and Djokovic. He then stated that unfortunately nobody will remember and that numbers are all that matter.

The truth will remain the truth regardless of whether it is remembered or forgotten. Truth is a condition of knowledge and knowledge is empowering. It is our curiosity for the truth that drives the progress of humanity.

"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others." -Douglas Adams

Public opinion isn't based on facts, but on popularity, making it potentially dangerous. This becomes obvious when you consider that public opinion is heavily influenced by those with vested interests in profit, power and prestige. The opinions of an expert are built around facts, logic and reason, not the views of the public.

There are too many uncontrollable variables in the conditions faced by the players to make accurate player comparisons a simple proposition. The numbers themselves are meaningless without context. To draw accurate conclusions it is necessary to look at all of the various forms of relevant context.

 

[Silentchimera]

Noticed you seem to go against 18-20 Nadal at RG in a lot of these (seemingly even 17 too) in most of these NatF even though obviously even you probably are looking at it a lot from a competition lense.

What would have happened if Agassi ran into a peak age ATG in the 2003 AO final? Peak age ATG's (21-26) win ~70% of their matches against post prime age ATG's (31-35). There was no level check for 2017-2020 RG Nadal or 2003 AO Agassi against a prime age ATG.

 

[Silentchimera]

Yeah, I'm sure skipping clay and then losing to a Juan handed Del Potro is equivalent to winning 3 Slams and a final in a season.

But really nothing disproves the idea they age the same more than that Nadal never beat Federer on HC after 2014.

This age/form comparison was made between the seasons the players turned a certain age. The comparison is between Federer's 2017 and Djokovic's 2023 season. Djokovic is only 2.5 months older than Federer when their seasons are compared in this way. If one is willing to quibble that 2.5 months puts Djokovic at a disadvantage then surely they must understand why these comparisons are made when Federer is 5 years and 9 months older than Djokovic.

 

[fedfan24]

This age/form comparison was made between the seasons the players turned a certain age. The comparison is between Federer's 2017 and Djokovic's 2023 season. Djokovic is only 2.5 months older than Federer when their seasons are compared in this way. If one is willing to quibble that 2.5 months puts Djokovic at a disadvantage then surely they must understand why these comparisons are made when Federer is 5 years and 9 months older than Djokovic.

Djokovic was better on clay that’s it. Fed beats him at 2 slams. USO he was injured which was well documented so it’s intellectually dishonest to beat him with that.

 

[helterskelter]

Hypothetical Fed remains unbeaten and holds all the records

I can see why you think this, but there are two problems with this post that you need to address:

1) You are a bit imprecise in your labeling. That is, while you are right that Hypothetical Feddy would be a very tough opponent indeed, you neglect to mention the reason that Actual Feddy wasn't quite as tough as would have been Hypothetical Feddy. What made Actual Feddy a slightly less tough opponent than Hypothetical Feddy would have been (had he existed) is that Actual Feddy was OLD. Therefore, to be precise, you ought to know that the unbeatable idea is Hypothetical Peak Feddy. Feddy was unlucky that he was born millennia before pro tennis existed. Had he been in his peak (or prime) at any point since 1877, he would of course have been all-but unbeatable.

2) Hypothetical Peak Feddy would have beaten almost everyone in the history of tennis, of course. However, another figure is his rough equal, namely Hypothetical Healthy Bull. The only reason Bull ever lost any matches, morally speaking, was that he is a Severely Injured Bull Who Plays Tennis. He was able to win easily when his injuries remained at the merely severe stage at which they always are. However, sometimes his injuries became so severe that even Bull couldn't battle through them successfully, and when they did so, he did occasionally "lose" a match, although the scare quotes are important in recognition of the fact that beating a Bull whose injuries were so severe that they would have felled any mere mortal is a pretty Pyrrhic victory indeed, and that, morally speaking, Bull is also virtually unbeatable.

Now, what would have happened had those two sublime ideas - Hypothetical Peak Feddy and Hypothetical Healthy Bull - met each other is anyone's guess. A true example of the famous idea of the Unstoppable Force versus the Immovable Object, and one that should be taught in philosophy and theology classes around the world.

 

[RS]

What would have happened if Agassi ran into a peak age ATG in the 2003 AO final? Peak age ATG's (21-26) win ~70% of their matches against post prime age ATG's (31-35). There was no level check for 2017-2020 RG Nadal or 2003 AO Agassi against a prime age ATG.

I think both wouldn't be easy even for a prime ATG. For the most part of course the younger Big 3's would probably be favoured.

 

[Dropshot777]

Assuming slam performances stay identical with respect to age for the sake of comparison, of course.

Which slams does Djokovic win in this hypothetical?

2007 Djokovic in 2001:
AO, RG, WB - obviously no
USO - no (loses to pre-final Sampras or Hewitt)

2008 Djokovic in 2002:
AO - obviously yes
RG - probably yes (beats Costa, probably beats pre-final Ferrero)
WB - obviously no
USO - no (loses to Sampras, probably Agassi and Hewitt too)

2009 Djokovic in 2003:
AO, RG, WB - obviously no
USO - probably no (I think he loses to Roddick but let's count it as a possibility to be generous)

2010 Djokovic in 2004:
AO - no (given he wilted vs Tsonga, Hewitt/Nalbandian/pre-final Safin/Agassi/Roddick should be too much)
RG - no (loses to pre-final Coria/Gaudio)
WB - no (loses to Roddick/Hewitt)
USO - probably no (I think he loses to Agassi but let's count this as a possibility)

2011 Djokovic in 2005:
AO - yes (beats Safin in epic 5)
RG - no (Nadal is already there and too strong)
WB - yes
USO - yes

2012 Djokovic in 2006:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB - yes (should beat Greendal in a competitive match)
USO - yes (no wind in this scenario and pre-wind Djokovic was peak)

2013 Djokovic in 2007:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB - no
USO - I think yes (struggles against Roddick and his younger self but beats them like he beat Wawrinka)

2014 Djokovic in 2008:
AO - no (loses to his younger self)
RG - no
WB - no (if Aulderer takes him to five there's no beating peakdal)
USO - maybe (given 2014 Noel lost to Nishikori, a loss to pre-final Murray or Djoko's younger self is on the cards)

2015 Djokovic in 2009:
AO - probably no (peakdal too good for strugglevic I reckon)
RG - probably yes (should beat del Potro in five aided by matchup)
WB - yes (roddick no slouch but peakovic too good)
USO - yes (beats Delpo again)

2016 Djokovic in 2010:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB, USO - obviously no (can't compete with peakdal in that form)

2017 Djokovic in 2011:
no slams obviously

2018 Djokovic in 2012:
AO, RG - obviously no
WB - maybe (50/50 vs Murray perhaps)
USO - maybe (loses to his 2012 self pre-final but if he's in the other half he could beat Murray and his younger self in the wind perhaps)

2019 Djokovic in 2013:
AO - maybe? (comes to 2013 vs 2019 Djokovic, far tougher draw in 2013 but the way he thumped Nadal in 19 was quite impressive so I don't know)
RG - no
WB - no (given the messy 2019 final he's not beating Murray there)
USO - no

2020 Djokovic in 2014:
AO - no (loses to his 2014 self, Wawrinka or pre-final Nadal)
RG - no
WB - doesn't exist in 2020 but likely no anyway
USO - not if he gets DQ'd

2021 Djokovic in 2015:
AO - no (loses to his 2015 self)
RG - no (loses to his 2015 self or Wawrinka most likely)
WB - no (loses to his 2015 self)
USO - no (loses to his 2015 self)

2022 Djokovic in 2016:
AO - would play without the vaccine debacle but loses to his 2016 self anyway
RG - no (loses to his 2016 self, possibly pre-final Murray/Wawrinka also)
WB - no (loses to Murray)
USO - would play without the vaccine debacle and may or may not win against his 2016 self and Wawrinka

2023 Djokovic in 2017:
AO - yes (beats Wawrinka/Nadal in a competitive match as Fed did)
RG - no
WB - yes (2017 field was quite weak, think none barring Fed - who is replaced here - were even up to Karl's level)
USO - probably no (I think he loses to 2017 Nadal but let's consider this a possibility)

Result:
6-8 AO
0-2 RG
4-5 WB
4-10 USO (what a wild range, speaks to Djoko's consistency but lack of sustained peak)
total: 14-25

--------

Now which slams does Federer win in this hypothetical?

2003 Federer in 2009:
AO, RG - obviously no
WB - yes (beats his 09 self and Roddick)
USO - obviously no

2004 Federer in 2010:
AO - probably yes (I think he beats his 2010 self)
RG - no
WB - yes (beats Nadal in a tough match)
USO - probably yes (I think he beats Nadal but let's consider this a possible loss)

2005 Federer in 2011:
AO - yes (beats his 2011 self and Murray easy)
RG - no
WB - yes
USO - yes

2006 Federer in 2012:
AO - probably no (loses to Nadal in that up-and-down form I suppose, but a win is possible)
RG - no
WB - yes
USO - yes

2007 Federer in 2013:
AO - yes
RG - no
WB - yes
USO - probably yes (suppose a loss to Nadal is also possible)

2008 Federer in 2014:
AO - maybe (Wawrinka and pre-final Nadal tough obstacles)
RG - no
WB - yes (beats his 2014 self)
USO - yes (beats Cilic and co)

2009 Federer in 2015:
AO - yes (beats Wawrinka and Murray)
RG - probably yes (should beat Wawrinka)
WB - yes (beats his 2015 self)
USO - yes (beats his 2015 self)

2010 Federer in 2016:
AO - yes (beats his 2016 self and Murray)
RG - maybe (may lose to pre-final Murray/Wawrinka but beats final Murray and co, I think)
WB - no (loses to Murray)
USO - maybe (I think he beats 2016 Djokovic and Wawrinka, but not a given)

2011 Federer in 2017:
AO - yes (beats his 2017 self and Nadal, there I said it)
RG - no
WB - yes (no peak tsonga to upset him in the 2017 field)
USO - yes (beats 2017 Nadal)

2012 Federer in 2018:
AO - yes (beats his 2018 self)
RG - no
WB - yes (beats 2018 Nadal)
USO - maybe (may or may not beat 2018 del Potro)

2013 Federer in 2019:
AO - maybe (even that Federer could probably wear down 2019 AO Nadal)
RG, WB, USO - obviously no

2014 Federer in 2020:
AO - probably yes (I think he beats Thiem and co, but not an autowin probably)
RG - no
WB - N/A (sad)
USO - probably yes (may lose to Thiem pre-final but beats him in the final and beats the rest)

2015 Federer in 2021:
AO - obviously no
RG - no (though I imagine the Nadal match would be actually competitive)
WB - yes
USO - yes

2016 Federer in 2022:
AO - yes (Med/Nadal wouldn't be getting a set off peakovic I bet)
RG - absent
WB - maybe (the 2022 field is so poor even Hobblerer could beat it unless he collapses, which is possible I suppose)
USO - absent

2017 Federer in 2023:
AO - yes
RG - absent (though I imagine he may play knowing that Nadal is absent, but let's keep the comparison clean)
WB - yes
USO - maybe (don't trust Medvedev/Alcaraz here)

TBD:
2018 AO in 2024, 2019 RG/WB in 2025, other post-2017 showings are not slam-winning forms in any case

Result:
8-13 AO
0-2 RG
11-12 WB
6-12 USO
total: 25-39 + 0-3 TBD (massive range here, speaks to Federer's consistency and being tough to put away)

Nice to have the difference spelled out so clearly. I didn't engineer the results before I did the count, if you're wondering. Looks like Djokovic is trailing pretty strongly in this age-adjusted hypothetical. What it tells us, hmm?

Thanks, I've been thinking along these lines for years, but the Djoko fans tend to dismiss it whenever I say "If you think about it" or "Federer"

 

[RS]

 

[mike danny]

Hypothetical Fed remains unbeaten and holds all the records

Same way Djokovic fans have no problems giving Djokovic Wimb 2020

 

[GabeT]

Same way Djokovic fans have no problems giving Djokovic Wimb 2020

He probably would have been a favorite but I insist that real matches are decided on real courts

 

[zagor]

What happened to Octorok?

 

[RS]

What happened to Octorok?

No idea he was getting less and less active anyway even before he stopped posting completely.

 

[GoatNo1]

nole, on the contrary to fed, was always very poor hypothetically player. fed on the other hand, is hypothetically GOAT. nole is the GOAT just IRL!

 

[tennito]

Here's a fun hypothetical.

Federer

Nadal

Djokovic

Lebron James

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Take their age 30-36 year old season selves. Put them against their 24 - 30 year old selves in terms of performance level.

How do they fare?

 

[RS]

Cross sports again.

 

[Razer]

If he is younger, will Federer still have a weaker BH and a return that is ranked #100 on the ATP career leaderboard? Then it would have been tougher for him to win as many Slams in his twenties.

If Federer is younger then Nadal will automatically force him to pickup his best racquet early in 2001-02 itself.

Remember Federer changed his racquet in that era and then drastically again did in 2013, growing up with Nadal would allow him to pick the right weapon early in his career than late post his prime. This would make a huge difference and Federer would triumph over Nadal outside clay and reverse the losing H2H which he would have initially. I don't see Djokovic post 28 beating peak Federer, so that saga also fixed.

 

[Holmes]

As a Fedfan I find this hypothetical disturbing because Roger may not ever get his career off the ground if his pitiful backhand was being bullied from day 1 by Novak. Neo-Backhand couldn't take the assault, Lord knows what cave 2004 backhand would have to retreat to in order to survive.

 

[messiahrobins]

Here's a fun hypothetical.

Federer

Nadal

Djokovic

Lebron James

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Take their age 30-36 year old season selves. Put them against their 24 - 30 year old selves in terms of performance level.

How do they fare?

Cant comment on Lebron as dont follow Netball but all the others were vastly inferior 30-36 than they were 24-30.

 

[socallefty]

40-15 Djokovic

 

[onehandbh]

Why, oh, why, do people keep making all these random hypothetical threads to defend their favorite players, whoever that may be?

The big 3 are actually Paes, Evans, and Brown.

Leander Paes > Federer (1-0 H2H)
Dan Evans > Djokovic (1-0 H2H)
Dustin Brown > Nadal (2-0 H2H)