Three reasons why I think Nadal is currently very dangerous

victorcruz

Hall of Fame
Sure. No one is unbeatable.
I just think that Nadal looking very dangerous - threads are a little premature.
Let's see how Nadal does this tournament. He definitely has a VERY good opportunity. Because he has to only face one of Fed and Djokovic. Beating both is impossible.
I think you and StrongRule must be fun at parties.
 
You are the one being dellusional. In the last 6 years? Last time I checked, 4 of those victories came in 2017, so only in 2017 it was a pattern. In 2018 and 2019 they have played 0 matches in outdoor hard, so you cannot say "last 6 years". In 2019 they are 1-1 and Rogers victory was on grass (not hard). The 2015 victory was on indoor hard (not outdoor hard). So only in 2017 was Roger defeating Nadal in outdoor hard.

P. S.: stop saying "outside clay" to add victories on grass and indoor hard. We are discussing the outdoor hard courts of the USO, not grass or indoor hard.

Doesn't change the fact that Federer has completely dominated Nadal in recent years.
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
It's called being delusional, if you don't see how the matchup has turned on its head on non clay surfaces. 6-0 on non-clay surfaces in the past 4 years. Rafa is eating up the field being aggressive. But he can't do aggressive better than Federer or Djokovic. He doesn't have the legs or the stamina to go extreme defense again. The only hope he has against Djok or Fed is pray that they are exhausted, injured or in Fed's case too old to compete.
your theory, which i was the first to state, was true in 2015 regarding stamina. Nadal's dramatic drop in endurance caused him to lose his famous mental toughness that year, but he recovered much of his stamina since then and now its more about his energy level (and of course injury) during a specific match. Clay requires more stamina than any other surface, besides maybe a very slow hardcourt, so its makes little sense that you now differentiate clay form any other surface regarding playing Federer or Djokovic now from that standpoint.

However, I do agree that Nadal should not try to 'out-aggressive' Federer or Djokovic now, especially Federer with his new slash -n-bash method of playing Nadal recently. He's even against Djokovic atm and anybody who cites the AO final as proof otherwise is being foolish, Nadal was injured in that match. their Wimby semi is a much better reflection of their current match up (a toss up with Djokovic having a slight to moderate advantage on HC (depending on the conditions), both mostly even on grass, and Nadal a favorite on clay.

Now vs Federer, Nadal needs to change his tactics! stop with the artificial aggression, change up the pace and speed of the game with more slicing and moonballing, keep the ball deep, and stay aggressive with his serve.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
your theory, which i was the first to state, was true in 2015 regarding stamina. Nadal's dramatic drop in endurance caused him to lose his famous mental toughness that year, but he recovered much of his stamina since then and now its more about his energy level (and of course injury) during a specific match. Clay requires more stamina than any other surface, besides maybe a very slow hardcourt, so its makes little sense that you now differentiate clay form any other surface regarding playing Federer or Djokovic now from that standpoint.

However, I do agree that Nadal should not try to 'out-aggressive' Federer or Djokovic now, especially Federer with his new slash -n-bash method of playing Nadal recently. He's even against Djokovic atm and anybody who cites the AO final as proof otherwise is being foolish, Nadal was injured in that match. their Wimby semi is a much better reflection of their current match up (a toss up with Djokovic having a slight to moderate advantage on HC (depending on the conditions), both mostly even on grass, and Nadal a favorite on clay.

Now vs Federer, Nadal needs to change his tactics! stop with the artificial aggression, change up the pace and speed of the game with more slicing and moonballing, keep the ball deep, and stay aggressive with his serve.
what was it that caused nadals dramatic stamina loss in 2015?
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
what was it that caused nadals dramatic stamina loss in 2015?
don't know, probably just wear and tear and stale regimine and team. Nadal revitalized in 2017, but he is not the energy monster he used to be, but is still much better than in 2015.

shows that Nadal's crazy metal strength was and is largely based on his endurance and ability to stay in points with his tremendous spin.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
don't know, probably just wear and tear and stale regimine and team. Nadal revitalized in 2017, but he is not the energy monster he used to be, but is still much better than in 2015.

shows that Nadal's crazy metal strength was and is largely based on his endurance and ability to stay in points with his tremendous spin.
enough rope
 

ADuck

Hall of Fame
don't know, probably just wear and tear and stale regimine and team. Nadal revitalized in 2017, but he is not the energy monster he used to be, but is still much better than in 2015.

shows that Nadal's crazy metal strength was and is largely based on his endurance and ability to stay in points with his tremendous spin.
Nadal got old really fast starting from USO2013 till AO2015. Depressing to watch back at the time.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
Nadal got old really fast starting from USO2013 till AO2015. Depressing to watch back at the time.
There was nothing old about Nadal post USO 2013, it was post AO 2014 after his back injury. He was perfectly fine in the fall of 2013 making the WTF final and then making AO final in Jan after winning Doha.
 

ADuck

Hall of Fame
There was nothing old about Nadal post USO 2013, it was post AO 2014 after his back injury. He was perfectly fine in the fall of 2013 making the WTF final and then making AO final in Jan after winning Doha.
Not saying he was old, it was an expression. He seemed to age 5 years in the space of 16 months starting from USO2013. Obviously multiple factors were at play though. Though if you're disagreeing there was wasn't a decline after USO2013, then that's different. There was a difference in his speed even after USO, and another difference after the WTF. Maybe not noticeable to the average viewer, but I noticed it.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
Not saying he was old, it was an expression. He seemed to age 5 years in the space of 16 months starting from USO2013. Obviously multiple factors were at play though. Though if you're disagreeing there was wasn't a decline after USO2013, then that's different. There was a difference in his speed even after USO, and another difference after the WTF. Maybe not noticeable to the average viewer, but I noticed it.
I would say his form went down a little, but making Beijing finals, semis of Shanghai, finals of WTF getting his first and only win over Federer, winning Doha, then beating in form Nishikori, in form Dimitrov and Federer at AO, I wouldn't saying he was aging that quick.

The form yes, I can agree somewhat, but the real noticeable difference that most saw came when he hurt his back in the final and he never recovered from it for quite a while. Drop in form? OK. Aging starting USO 2013, I would disagree.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
I would say his form went down a little, but making Beijing finals, semis of Shanghai, finals of WTF getting his first and only win over Federer, winning Doha, then beating in form Nishikori, in form Dimitrov and Federer at AO, I wouldn't saying he was aging that quick.

The form yes, I can agree somewhat, but the real noticeable difference that most saw came when he hurt his back in the final and he never recovered from it for quite a while. Drop in form? OK. Aging starting USO 2013, I would disagree.
back injury lasted 3 years did it?
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
he played 81 matches in 2015 and how does a back injury effect stamina?
I never said he had a back injury in 2015, his 2015 was about form, not injury. 2014 was the back injury, his consistency took a nose dive post AO 2014.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
In 2014? Yes, everything took a hit IMO, his game just fell off. Earliest loss at IW since 2005, earliest loss in MC since 2003, out classed just got lucky in Madrid...he was not the same.
 

ADuck

Hall of Fame
I would say his form went down a little, but making Beijing finals, semis of Shanghai, finals of WTF getting his first and only win over Federer, winning Doha, then beating in form Nishikori, in form Dimitrov and Federer at AO, I wouldn't saying he was aging that quick.

The form yes, I can agree somewhat, but the real noticeable difference that most saw came when he hurt his back in the final and he never recovered from it for quite a while. Drop in form? OK. Aging starting USO 2013, I would disagree.
Well, we're all aging all the time so perhaps you disagree with the rate at which it happened, but we essentially agree that it happened. And also, form goes up and down all the time but the main thing I was thinking of during Indoor swing of 2013 was his footspeed. His form plateued as well obviously, but I was able to distinguish that was a seperate matter at the time.
I'd say there were multiple steps, each with differing levels of decline. The first 2 steps being:
1. USO to Indoor season - small decline in footspeed
2. Indoor season to Australia - another small decline in footspeed

After his back injury in the final of Australia, there actually wasn't a noticeable decline in his footspeed at first IMO. His form in Australia and Doha was never really THAT impressive either so it was no surprise he lost early in IW and pretty tamely in the final of Miami. It was only when the clay season began that it was obvious that something had changed, and i'm not sure I entirely blame the back injury for that either. Then FO happened, he finally got really hot during the Ferrer match and played really aggressive from then on, which was able to hide the fact he had a declined a bit since last year. During Wimbledon, I then remember thinking how drastic the difference in reaction time was since Nadal played in '08. He was so much better at pushing off the ground to run from side to side.. After Wimbledon I pretty much forgot what happened during the rest of the season and then came AO 2015 which was maybe the worst form Nadal was in during his pro career, another decline in footspeed from and no aggressiveness to hide it with.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
Well, we're all aging all the time so perhaps you disagree with the rate at which it happened, but we essentially agree that it happened. And also, form goes up and down all the time but the main thing I was thinking of during Indoor swing of 2013 was his footspeed. His form plateued as well obviously, but I was able to distinguish that was a seperate matter at the time.
I'd say there were multiple steps, each with differing levels of decline. The first 2 steps being:
1. USO to Indoor season - small decline in footspeed
2. Indoor season to Australia - another small decline in footspeed

After his back injury in the final of Australia, there actually wasn't a noticeable decline in his footspeed at first IMO. His form in Australia and Doha was never really THAT impressive either so it was no surprise he lost early in IW and pretty tamely in the final of Miami. It was only when the clay season began that it was obvious that something had changed, and i'm not sure I entirely blame the back injury for that either. Then FO happened, he finally got really hot during the Ferrer match and played really aggressive from then on, which was able to hide the fact he had a declined a bit since last year. During Wimbledon, I then remember thinking how drastic the difference in reaction time was since Nadal played in '08. He was so much better at pushing off the ground to run from side to side.. After Wimbledon I pretty much forgot what happened during the rest of the season and then came AO 2015 which was maybe the worst form Nadal was in during his pro career, another decline in footspeed from and no aggressiveness to hide it with.
OK, but wouldn't you say that there would be an element of fatigue here? He played a lot of tennis up to and including USO, 10 titles coming from 12 finals. His legs would feel that no doubt, he had some serious dog fights during that time.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
Well, we're all aging all the time so perhaps you disagree with the rate at which it happened, but we essentially agree that it happened. And also, form goes up and down all the time but the main thing I was thinking of during Indoor swing of 2013 was his footspeed. His form plateued as well obviously, but I was able to distinguish that was a seperate matter at the time.
I'd say there were multiple steps, each with differing levels of decline. The first 2 steps being:
1. USO to Indoor season - small decline in footspeed
2. Indoor season to Australia - another small decline in footspeed

After his back injury in the final of Australia, there actually wasn't a noticeable decline in his footspeed at first IMO. His form in Australia and Doha was never really THAT impressive either so it was no surprise he lost early in IW and pretty tamely in the final of Miami. It was only when the clay season began that it was obvious that something had changed, and i'm not sure I entirely blame the back injury for that either. Then FO happened, he finally got really hot during the Ferrer match and played really aggressive from then on, which was able to hide the fact he had a declined a bit since last year. During Wimbledon, I then remember thinking how drastic the difference in reaction time was since Nadal played in '08. He was so much better at pushing off the ground to run from side to side.. After Wimbledon I pretty much forgot what happened during the rest of the season and then came AO 2015 which was maybe the worst form Nadal was in during his pro career, another decline in footspeed from and no aggressiveness to hide it with.
what would you estimate to be the decline in his 40 yard dash?
 

ADuck

Hall of Fame
OK, but wouldn't you say that there would be an element of fatigue here? He played a lot of tennis up to and including USO, 10 titles coming from 12 finals. His legs would feel that no doubt, he had some serious dog fights during that time.
Maybe some of it after the USO was due to fatigue, and during that time, I did think (hope) it was just fatigue. But then during Doha and Australia when he should have been rested and revitalized I changed my mind.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
In 2014? Yes, everything took a hit IMO, his game just fell off. Earliest loss at IW since 2005, earliest loss in MC since 2003, out classed just got lucky in Madrid...he was not the same.
he won a tournament 3 weeks after the AO,he couldn't have been too injured
 

ADuck

Hall of Fame
what would you estimate to be the decline in his 40 yard dash?
Not a sprinter, so I can't say with any certainty. But, I'd say it'd be significant considering such a short distance would depend on your start, and Nadal's ability to push off from the ground had taken a huge hit by then.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
he won a tournament 3 weeks after the AO,he couldn't have been too injured
He still played until Wimbledon, he wasn't in a wheelchair or anything, but the week in week out consistency was perceptibly gone. The guy was holding his back in the RG final against Djokovic.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
He still played until Wimbledon, he wasn't in a wheelchair or anything, but the week in week out consistency was perceptibly gone. The guy was holding his back in the RG final against Djokovic.
did he lift his shirt and show the k tape he got 3 million to wear?
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
did he lift his shirt and show the k tape he got 3 million to wear?
Are you refferring to Nadal's back issues in the 2014 RG final? You can see him cringe, bend over at times and hold his back. Djokovic himself was not well also.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
Are you refferring to Nadal's back issues in the 2014 RG final? You can see him cringe, bend over at times and hold his back. Djokovic himself was not well also.
novak vomited on court if i remember correctly

give me some vid of nadal clutching his back if you would be kind enough
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
novak vomited on court if i remember correctly

give me some vid of nadal clutching his back if you would be kind enough
Yes. Novak was vomitting and was physically sick out there.

I will look for the full match and then let you know at what point it happens. Happens late into the match.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
he won a tournament 3 weeks after the AO,he couldn't have been too injured
He was completely injured in the AO final as he couldn't run or serve properly. Only a blind person would fail to ser that his movement was clearly affected. 3 weeks is time enough to recover from a minor back injury.

I lift weights in the gym. One day I lifted way too much for a back exercise. As a consequence, the next morning I couldn't move from the bed. I was like 4 days barely moving from the bed with pain. At 2 weeks I felt much better. At 3 weeks I could do any physical exercise without problem.
 
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LETitBE

Hall of Fame
He was completely injured in the AO final as he couldn't run or serve properly. Only a blind person would fail to ser that his movement was clearly affected. 3 weeks is time enough to recover from a back injury.

I lift weights in the gym. One day I lifted way too much for a back exercise. As a consequence, the next morning I couldn't move from the bed. I was like 4 days barely moving from the bed with pain. At 2 weeks I felt much better. At 3 weeks I could do any physical exercise without problem.
ok
 

mightyrick

Legend
Nadal is always "dangerous". Since when has that not been true? Nobody on tour wants to face Nadal. Nobody. Ever. On any surface. The guy plays like nobody else. You can't prepare for him. You can't practice for him. Nadal is like a great knuckleball pitcher in baseball. If he is feeling it, then you are going to take three futile swings at the ball and then go sit down -- it's going to be a short match. But if he's not feeling it, you are going to be teeing off on him all match long.

All I've seen from Nadal (not unlike Federer and Djokovic) is that his movement is slower, he takes less time to develop points and is shortening them more (which reduces his chances of winning a point), and he's injured more often.

All Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic can do at this point in their careers is try to slow their decline. They can't stop it. They can't maintain status quo. They aren't going to get better. It's been going downhill for quite awhile now.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
There was nothing old about Nadal post USO 2013, it was post AO 2014 after his back injury.
If I could choose one movement that killed Nadal - it was the AO 2014 Final back injury.
Something happened since then, and he has NEVER been the same player since. No matter the success he had in 2017.

There are parts of his game in 2013, that never came back. Maybe he held back on somethings because of injury or maybe the mental scars are very strong.
But that AO 2014 final was decisive. I remember Nadal was the heavy favorite and experts were saying that instead of 1 Swiss - you would need the whole army to beat him.
And perhaps Nadal himself expected to win. But the injury broke the proverbial camel's back - pun intended.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic alwaus make changes, not major ones, but where is difference between minor and major change? Even when he was best he made changes, changes that made difference him to stay top dog. Remember Cincinnati 2015 when Federer sabr everyone?
I'm not a fan of the SABR...

Novak has been proactive about making changes BECAUSE of his rivalry with Fedal. But for the last few years he's known that he has the upper hand against them, barring on clay against Nadal. Any tweaking he is currently doing would be more about retaining his leverage over the rest of the field, but that won't become critical until someone beats him in a slam. Sooner or later it will happen though. It always does.

When players are winning, they just concentrate on keeping those winning skills sharp. They work on new skills when they start losing.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Update: Fed is currently at 60.9% of games on HC this year. That puts him over the magic 60% limit. Rafa is even higher and currently looks great. I picked him to win this. I'll be back in a little while with Nadal's games. It is looking more and more like another Fedal final this year, and even if they don't both make it to the end, one of them not in the final would be a surprise.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
And Nadal: 63.4% of games through his last match. I'm still picking Nadal to win the USO, but I'm pulling for Fed,a lot. ;)
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Last update before the final. I believe that Nadal is currently at 63.6% of games this hear on HC up to the SF.

There have been 74 finals played at the USO and the AO on HC in the open era.

37 of those titles have been won by players who finish the year winning 60% of games or more. In other words, there is about a 50/50 chance that the winner will also have a very good game record for the year on the surface.

If you extend that to guys who win at least 58% of games in the year of the major, that goes up to 51.

If you go down to 56%, then 60 of the winners won more than 56% of games on the year.

Nadal is right in the slot to win. It doesn't guarantee a victory, but it certainly favors him.

Medvedev was in good shape before the USO game wise and he still is. He is currently at 58.11%

These two majors have only been won 14 times by players who were below 56% of games for the year. It's been done twice by Wawrinka, twice by Becker, twice by Sampras and twice by Safin. So redlining, clutch players can beat the odds, but it doesn't happen often. To win this Medvedev has to be hot, and Nadal has to be off.

I hope I'm wrong. We'll find out in a bit more than 12 hours.

But if I were a gambler, I'd certainly chance a bet on Meddy.
 
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Lew II

G.O.A.T.
Nadal has a chance to end for the first time a year without GS losses to non-Big3:

2003 - Srichapan, El Aynaoui
2004 - Hewitt, Roddick
2005 - Hewitt, Muller, Blake
2006 - Youzhny
2007 - Gonzalez, Ferrer
2008 - Tsonga, Murray
2009 - Soderling, Del Potro
2010 - Murray
2011 - Ferrer
2012 - Rosol
2013 - Darcis
2014 - Wawrinka, Kyrgios
2015 - Berdych, Brown, Fognini
2016 - Verdasco, Pouille
2017 - Muller
2018 - Cilic, Del Potro
2019 -
 

BringBackSV

Hall of Fame
Nadal has a chance to end for the first time a year without GS losses to non-Big3:

2003 - Srichapan, El Aynaoui
2004 - Hewitt, Roddick
2005 - Hewitt, Muller, Blake
2006 - Youzhny
2007 - Gonzalez, Ferrer
2008 - Tsonga, Murray
2009 - Soderling, Del Potro
2010 - Murray
2011 - Ferrer
2012 - Rosol
2013 - Darcis
2014 - Wawrinka, Kyrgios
2015 - Berdych, Brown, Fognini
2016 - Verdasco, Pouille
2017 - Muller
2018 - Cilic, Del Potro
2019 -
Well, it would be pretty difficult to lose to himself.
 
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