TLS Rating vs Tennisrecords

Matthew ATX

Semi-Pro
Don't know about TLS but I don't think Tennis Record is that accurate. I was tracking it last season as I thought it was pretty accurate.

A couple of examples. Guy on my 4.0 team was rated 3.72 in TR and he got bumped to 4.5 and two other guys on another team were 3.73 and 3.74 and also got bumped.

So I tend to think TR in general gives lower ratings compared to actual.
What section? USTA bit the heads off a couple sections, like Texas.
 

KaiserW

Hall of Fame
It's possible. Keep in mind that the USTA can decide to slide the boundaries at any time though to balance out the number of people playing at different levels. As long as none of the bins get too wide, it doesn't really matter where the lines are drawn. In our area it seemed like they slid a significant number of strong 4.0s up to 4.5. I suspect those weren't all true bumps (dNTRP calculated >= 4.0) but just a way to grow the 4.5 leagues a little bit.
Hmm maybe you are right.
 

TennisOTM

New User
Yeah, they got the method wrong for appeals. Appealing your rating changes the level you are labeled as, but it doesn't change your dNTRP. Let's say that you have a TR NTRP of 3.30 but you now have a USTA rating of 3.5A. That means that USTA thought you were a 3.0 or a 4.0, but TR can't tell which. There are 3 possible things to do: (1) set your dNTRP to 3.25. The bump means you were above 3.5 or below 3.0, so without any other info, 3.25 will minimize the maximum possible error -- but will clearly be in error itself. (2) set your dNTRP estimate to 3.50, based on guessing from your TR 3.30 (>= 3.25) estimate that you were most likely bumped up. Depending on how accurate TR is, this could provide a lower total overall error in the estimates for "A" players. (3), do a procedure like (2) but use a weighted random guess of up versus down based on the TR estimate. Weighted randomization will help to eliminate bias in the "A" rating estimates if TR estimates are inaccurately biased themselves, but the randomization also guarantees that you will have to live with a fair amount of error (that's life). Finally, (4) is leave the rating unchanged. The bump and appeal didn't change your dNTRP, so you will neither gain nor lose error in the TR estimate by keeping the original value.

All of the above ideas have pros and cons, but arbitrarily setting everyone to the top or bottom of the level is much worse than any of the above. It distributes the error unevenly and creates a bias towards the top / bottom of the level.
Anecdotally it seems like they have this right this year. There's one 4.0A in my area who I know was an appeal up, and TR had his initial 2020 rating estimate at 3.50, whereas the other 4.0A guys who were appeal downs started at 4.01. Either they were able to "guess" correctly, or they had independent knowledge of their computer ratings before their appeals, which is possible if they were able to pull the USTA data immediately when it came out, before anyone had a chance to hit the appeal button.
 

time_fly

Hall of Fame
TR seems to be making a major correction in our area. I’m not sure if it’s related to adding mixed doubles results, but I suspect that it is. Everyone’s doubles ratings in our USTA leagues are sinking fast. I played 8.0 a couple weeks ago against a 4.5 M / 3.5 F pair and both now have a rounded UTR of 4, which is absurd. They were in no way equal tennis players.

Actually, going further into the ratings in the recent matches I’ve played, it seems like everyone male, or female, 3.5 to 4.5, has collapsed to a UTR of 3 or 4. The only 5s I could find in my history were a pair of college players (playing as 4.0S) that don’t play mixed.
 

OnTheLine

Hall of Fame
TR seems to be making a major correction in our area. I’m not sure if it’s related to adding mixed doubles results, but I suspect that it is. Everyone’s doubles ratings in our USTA leagues are sinking fast. I played 8.0 a couple weeks ago against a 4.5 M / 3.5 F pair and both now have a rounded UTR of 4, which is absurd. They were in no way equal tennis players.

Actually, going further into the ratings in the recent matches I’ve played, it seems like everyone male, or female, 3.5 to 4.5, has collapsed to a UTR of 3 or 4. The only 5s I could find in my history were a pair of college players (playing as 4.0S) that don’t play mixed.
I am assuming you meant UTR not TR ....
I have seen the opposite as mixed results have come in .... a lot of women at 3.5NTRP have risen from 3s to 4s and some 5s; those men (3.5 and 4.0NTRP) I have played with in mixed 7.0 and 7.5 are mostly 5s and 6s but I don't know what they were on UTR before.
 

time_fly

Hall of Fame
Yeah sorry, I was looking at both ratings at the time and had TR on the brain when I posted this. It’s about UTR. Will continue in the other thread.
 
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