The more I know about UTR, the more obvious it is that the algorithm needs serious revision to stabilize ratings.
With the current UTR algorithm, if I were to beat a 12-year-old munchkin, and 5 years later that kid grows up to win Wimbledon. My UTR would get dragged up and say I’m as good as Roger.
They really need to address this if they want to be taken more seriously by everyone. They need to go to an ELO algorithm that takes a snapshot of opponent strength at the time the match was played, and then allows that a player’s level might go up or down over time.
From UTR's site (a FAQ about UTR):
"Why did my rating change when I haven’t played recently?
UTR is a measurement of player skill today and recalculates daily. There can be several reasons why a change (up or down) would occur. Some reasons could include:
And other places in that document also mention the ignoring of results from over one year old. I think it's been mentioned in another UTR thread.
- You played a player that was unrated/projected and their rating has become more reliable through more play.
- Scores from more than 12 months ago fell off your record"
I think the UTR system has inherent downward drift (during periods of inactivity) for adult players, simply because they are being compared against juniors whose ratings are inherently drifting upward. If adult ratings didn’t drift downward inherently to create balance, the algorithm would collapse by spiraling upward for everyone!UTR is really designed based off it seems the needs of junior players. So for a 14 year old they don't want their capabilities at 12 years old depressing their current ratings .... as adults, results 12 months old are probably more reflective of our current state of affairs than those who are quite young.
But what is miserable is having an excellent result against a higher rated player who then falls apart.
I am a whopping UTR 3.16 ... I beat a 4 by a nice 3&3 scoreline in singles. My UTR went up nicely.
About 2 weeks after that match my opponent retired from a match against another UTR4 injured. Lost that match 6-2; 3-0 .... I was idle ... my rating dropped. Opponent played another match coming back likely too soon from injury and lost (retired again) to a UTR2 6-4; 2-1 retired. my rating dropped even further. I only had mixed matches at the time that don't count.
So if you care about your UTR (which we should not) be certain to play only against healthy people, or at least people who are smart enough to fully recover before playing more matches.
First, USTA does NOT consider tournaments in all regions/sections ... only in some. And from information from my LLC they count for much less than people think.
I am guessing you are joking about finding the secret ... I wish it was that simple. But if you lose 4 games to opponents that the computer thinks you should double-bagel ..... well, the "secret" won't work.
If I were to put out a "secret" it would be: In doubles, play with the lowest rated person you can find (say a 2.5 playing up on your 3.0 team), play on line 1 assuming you play against higher rated players and greatly beat what the computer thinks the score should be.
The REAL secret is: practice hard, become better, dominate your level and you will be bumped up.
You don't even have to have a login to access their data.If you are a USTA member, you have access to all their data and it only costs you $44 per year!
You don't even have to have a login to access their data.
Most of the 4.0 players in our league and are UTR 6 with a range from 5 to 7, so 4.5 at UTR 7.36 would be in the lower 4.5 possibly?
You don't even have to have a login to access their data.
Really?
Yes, please tell us how we can see their proprietary dynamic ratings. I'd love to see where I am at in relation to the third-party estimators.
The reason the 3rd party sites exist is that USTA does not ever disclose dNTRP. The data that he 3rd parties are grabbing is simply the match results.
They generally come out the week after Thanksgiving.When do the new USTA ratings come out this year?
Never said you could get that. Sorry you interpreted it that way.Yes, please tell us how we can see their proprietary dynamic ratings. I'd love to see where I am at in relation to the third-party estimators.
My understanding is that TLS does not incorporate tri-level matches, but does include mixed matches.Comparing TLS vs TR ratings there are at least 3 people I know with a difference of 0.3 - 0.4 between the two ratings sites. That is such a huge difference. Two of them are at ~3.93 on TR and 4.33 on TLS. The 3rd is at 3.97 on TR and 4.27 on TLS. Will be interesting to see if any of them get bumped down. Knowing all 3 I'd describe them as lower end 4.5s so maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle?
In this case two of these guys only played 18+ and 40+ this year, so both sites should be working with the same data. Tri-level doesn't count in my section which TR takes into account (they don't give us ratings for our tri-level matches) so the only difference could be his mixed and combo rating. But I see nothing that indicates TLS includes mixed in his rating. If I had to guess both sites are just way off as they are for many many people.My understanding is that TLS does not incorporate tri-level matches, but does include mixed matches.
On the other hand, TR does incorporate tri-level matches, and calculates separate ratings for mixed (thereby excluding mixed results from the regular rating).
In most of the cases that I've looked at with a large difference between the two, this has at least partially explained the difference.
Maybe TR is sophisticated enough to vary which leagues they include by section, because they do include tri-level for my section (though I was told that a non-advancing tri-level league I participated in last spring does not count, but the advancing tri-level league I'm currently participating in does count...but TR is counting both).In this case two of these guys only played 18+ and 40+ this year, so both sites should be working with the same data. Tri-level doesn't count in my section which TR takes into account (they don't give us ratings for our tri-level matches) so the only difference could be his mixed and combo rating. But I see nothing that indicates TLS includes mixed in his rating. If I had to guess both sites are just way off as they are for many many people.
Yeah that's what I was getting at. They list those leagues but don't specify anywhere what goes into their ratings. A little silly that we can't even tell what they're basing our estimated ratings on. No way to judge how reliable they may be.The reason I think mixed and combo mixed are being included in TLS is because they are listed under the player in their "detail rating order" page. Now, whether they only use those matches when a player doesn't have 3 regular league matches (to simulate an "M" rating), or if they always use them in their rating calc isn't specified.
And now comes the special time of year where TR and TLS go into hibernation, or perhaps on walk-about, contemplating the great mysteries of the real bump list and seeking the errors of their ways. Expect to see updates again in late January or February.
Lol, cut the guys some slack. They are free websites to look at and nobody says you have to look at them. Use them for scouting doubles pairings or approximate strength of team individuals in comparison to one another, that’s it. They never claim to be part of usta or that their ratings are usta ratings.
It is kind of creepy that they sent me emails as I don’t recall giving them my email address. Did they scrape that from a TW order or my usta account?True, but the site owners are making not insignificant revenue from ads and maybe even having access to players names and cities of origin. I bet if they get a rep for being inaccurate it will hurt their bottom line.
It is kind of creepy that they sent me emails as I don’t recall giving them my email address. Did they scrape that from a TW order or my usta account?
Now I am quite sure they have our credit card numbers as well, so everyone should stop bashing them before they go on a shopping spree at your expense.They have access to more data than you might think. I have received emails from them too, and there is no way they could have my email address except for the USTA data.
Funny to see all this about ad dollars. I work in the online advertising industry and can say that they don’t make astronomical revenue from ads...maybe enough to have an expensive dinner couple times a month.Now I am quite sure they have our credit card numbers as well, so everyone should stop bashing them before they go on a shopping spree at your expense.
Same here. It has me playing a doubles tournament with a different partner every round and each of the players on court are female, except me. Another singles tournament I played, it has me playing one of the matches as a single player playing against a mixed doubles team. All the scores seem correct for my matches too.TennisRecord is scraping tournament data now... kinda.
All my tournament matches are now on there. But every name associated with every match is wrong. Both partner and opponent names are people I've never heard of. The people listed in those spots are from all over the country. The scores seem to be correct for each match.
TR is pulling tourney data now but it looks janky as hell.
Hmmm. Yeah TR has my Men’s Open tournament matches against two females kind of like Canadian doubles? Kind of like how USTA has me listed in Men’s 60s and 70s Rankings even though I’m in my 30s.
I just looked at your TR record. It shows you made it to .500 playing Canadian doubs against a pair of 3.0 ladies in your last match.My W-L record in 2019 is 29-29. Perfectly balanced... as all things should be.
I just looked at your TR record. It shows you made it to .500 playing Canadian doubs against a pair of 3.0 ladies in your last match.
I've been looking at the site for a few years. This is normal. They stop pulling data from USTA at the end of the league year, update the ratings, then try to fix their calculations based on the actual bumps versus their predicted ones. This seems to take some time. Once they've done that, they will start adding the new league year data.My TR page does not include any of my matches after 11/9/2019. Has anyone else noticed a lack of updates after that date?
I've been looking at the site for a few years. This is normal. They stop pulling data from USTA at the end of the league year, update the ratings, then try to fix their calculations based on the actual bumps versus their predicted ones. This seems to take some time. Once they've done that, they will start adding the new league year data.
I think they get calculated later. Same thing happened last year.It seems like TR is no longer updating ratings based on matches when one of the players on the court is self-rated with fewer than 3 qualifying matches. For those of us playing at lower levels, this actually removes a pretty significant number of matches from consideration. I think TR’s algorithm would be more accurate if it were iterative rather than always calculating forward. I haven’t looked deeply into the UTR method but based on the fact that my rating fluctuates even without new results makes me think they calculate backwards as well as forwards.
I think they get calculated later. Same thing happened last year.
Don't know about TLS but I don't think Tennis Record is that accurate. I was tracking it last season as I thought it was pretty accurate.
A couple of examples. Guy on my 4.0 team was rated 3.72 in TR and he got bumped to 4.5 and two other guys on another team were 3.73 and 3.74 and also got bumped.
So I tend to think TR in general gives lower ratings compared to actual.
There were also a few bugs in tennis record last year that affected some ratings. I played a match with a 3.5A and it assumed he had appealed up instead of down, so when our match dynamic ratings were calculated it gave him a 3.0 and my rating was way higher than it should be. They never corrected that. I was a 3.55 last year and wasn’t bumped despite the great Texas bump. The previous year, i was a 3.37 and was bumped but was able to appeal down.