Yes, only Montgomery County. And everything I said in my post applies only to the Montgomery Co. TLS ratings. Yes, I can see that. Is that analysis for the whole US? Is it meant to mimic USTA's NTRP system? I will, as soon as I post this. I didn't conclude that it's impossible to get bumped up by playing at level (keep in mind that my conclusion pertained only to TLS ratings, which may not be an accurate estimate of NTRP ratings). What I did say was that it appears that it is far easier to obtain an outlier high TLS rating by playing up a small number of matches than it is by playing at level a great number of matches. I noted that 14 out of the highest 15 rated players in the high normal range (3.31-3.38 ) had all played a lot of matches at level, had excellent W-L records, and were in my opinion among the most likely to get bumped up prior to seeing the TLS ratings. In contrast, the lowest 6 of the 9 players in the high outlier range (3.46-3.53) had all played very few matches, had played only at the 4.0 level, and their combined W-L record (W-L game record) was very poor (4-27), even considering that they were playing up. In summary, I believe that the computer expectation of, for example, a team of 3.75 players beating a team of 3.25 players by 6-0, 6-0 is unrealistic and biased towards helping the lower rated players. It is impossible for them to fall below the computer expectations in such a match. In contrast, there are many things that could cause them to exceed such low expectations, including having an especially good match, an injury on the other team, the other team having an off day, the other team being low on adrenaline due to the lack of competition, a few lucky bounces, or invalid ratings.