To debunk WTF group

Who passes the group

  • Djokovic

    Votes: 13 72.2%

  • Rune

    Votes: 2 11.1%

  • Sinner

    Votes: 16 88.9%
  • Total voters
    18
Rudiiii

Rudiiii

Semi-Pro
I am seeing many threads asking what are the chances of Sinner, Djokovic and Rune making it to the SF of WTF, so I wanted to thoroughly explain every possible case.
First, lets write tiebreakers:
1. Most wins (if two guys win same number of matches, one with more matches played gets advantage)
2. H2H
3. Best % of sets won (if three guys are equalled)
4. Best % of games won (if three guys are equalled)

Now lets write every possible case (Won't write about Hurkacz, because, sadly, he has no chances of advancing, thanks to stinky Greek):

1.Sinner wins his match (doesn't matter how):
Here Djokovic and Sinner advance;

2. Djokovic wins his match 2:0, Sinner looses his match 2:0:
Only way for Djokovic and Rune to advance without looking at games % won, because Nole would be 5:3 sets, Rune 5:2, and Sinner 4:3

3. Djokovic wins his match 2:0, Sinner looses his 2:1:
Djokovic, Rune and Sinner all 5:3, totally depends on games % won, and I think it is highly likely for Rune to be on loosing side, thanks to ATP stupid rules

4. Djokovic wins his match 2:1, Sinner looses in any way:
Nole is 5:4 in sets played, and he is out of WTF

5. Djokovic looses his match, Sinner looses his:
Djokovic out of WTF

I hope I helped, and also if there is a error or if I forgot something, please feel free to point it out.


edit: so @jm1980 did the math, and probably the only way for Djokovic to exit this tournament after group stage is for him to not straight set Hurkacz
 
Last edited:
BGod said:
Loving the idea of first 1-2 advance since Nishikori 2016 in the event Sinner & Hurkacz win.
Click to expand...
And I think it is highly likely to happen, as I don't give much chances to Rune. Pause today did him more bad than good
 
Rudiiii said:
I am seeing many threads asking what are the chances of Sinner, Djokovic and Rune making it to the SF of WTF, so I wanted to thoroughly explain every possible case.
First, lets write tiebreakers:
1. Most wins (if two guys win same number of matches, one with more matches played gets advantage)
2. H2H
3. Best % of sets won (if three guys are equalled)
4. Best % of games won (if three guys are equalled)

Now lets write every possible case (Won't write about Hurkacz, because, sadly, he has no chances of advancing, thanks to stinky Greek):

1.Djokovic wins 2:0 next match, Sinner wins his match (doesn't matter how):
Here Djokovic and Sinner advance, as second and first in group;

2. Djokovic wins his match 2:0, Sinner looses his match 2:0:
Only way for Djokovic and Rune to advance without looking at games % won, because Nole would be 5:3 sets, Rune 5:2, and Sinner 4:3

3. Djokovic wins his match 2:0, Sinner looses his 2:1:
Djokovic, Rune and Sinner all 5:3, totally depends on games % won, and I think it is highly likely for Rune to be on loosing side, thanks to ATP stupid rules

4. Djokovic wins his match 2:1, Sinner looses in any way:
Nole is 5:4 in sets played, and he is out of WTF

5. Djokovic looses his match in any way, Sinner wins his in any way:
Rune is out, as he has loosing H2H againts Nole

6. Djokovic looses his match, Sinner looses his:
Djokovic out of WTF

I hope I helped, and also if there is a error or if I forgot something, please feel free to point it out.
Click to expand...

I think it can be explained simplier.

A. Sinner Wins > Sinner and Djokovic to SFs

B. Rune Wins >
.................................B1. Djokovic doesn't win 2-0 > Sinner and Rune to SFs
.................................B2. Djokovic Wins 2-0 >
...................................................................................B2a. Rune Wins 2-0 > Djokovic and Rune to SFs
...................................................................................B2b. Rune Wins 2-1 > 3-way tie, comes to games %
 
FedeRadi said:
I think it can be explained simplier.

A. Sinner Wins > Sinner and Djokovic to SFs

B. Rune Wins >
.................................B1. Djokovic doesn't win 2-0 > Sinner and Rune to SFs
.................................B2. Djokovic Wins 2-0 >
...................................................................................B2a. Rune Wins 2-0 > Djokovic and Rune to SFs
...................................................................................B2b. Rune Wins 2-1 > 3-way tie, comes to games %
Click to expand...
Wanted it to be as simplified as possible, but yes, I can see you are programmer :D
 
FedeRadi said:
I think it can be explained simplier.

A. Sinner Wins > Sinner and Djokovic to SFs

B. Rune Wins >
.................................B1. Djokovic doesn't win 2-0 > Sinner and Rune to SFs
.................................B2. Djokovic Wins 2-0 >
...................................................................................B2a. Rune Wins 2-0 > Djokovic and Rune to SFs
...................................................................................B2b. Rune Wins 2-1 > 3-way tie, comes to games %
Click to expand...
The gist of it is:
  • Sinner d. Rune: Sinner wins group, Djokovic 2nd (result vs Hurkacz irrelevant)
  • Rune d. Sinner:
    • Hurkacz d. Djokovic or Djokovic d. Hurkacz 2-1: Rune wins group, Sinner 2nd
    • Djokovic d. Hurkacz 2-0:
      • Rune d. Sinner 2-0: Rune wins group, Djokovic 2nd
      • Rune d. Sinner 2-1: Standings decided on games won/lost %; Djokovic guaranteed to be in
With a Djokovic 2-0 and Rune 2-1, there is no permutation of games won/lost that would leave Novak out. In that scenario, one of Rune or Sinner can come out ahead of Novak in games won, but not both
 
Last edited:
jm1980 said:
The gist of it is:
  • Sinner d. Rune: Sinner wins group, Djokovic 2nd (result vs Hurkacz irrelevant)
  • Rune d. Sinner:
    • Hurkacz d. Djokovic or Djokovic d. Hurkacz 2-1: Rune wins group, Sinner 2nd
    • Djokovic d. Hurkacz 2-0:
      • Rune d. Sinner 2-0: Rune wins group, Djokovic 2nd
      • Rune d. Sinner 2-1: Standings decided on games won/lost %; Djokovic practically guaranteed to be in
With a Djokovic 2-0 and Rune 2-1, I can't find a permutation of games won/lost that would leave Novak out. In that scenario, one of Rune or Sinner can come out ahead of Novak in games won, but not both
Click to expand...

So Djokovic really needs to get the job done in straights in his next match.
 
jm1980 said:
The gist of it is:
  • Sinner d. Rune: Sinner wins group, Djokovic 2nd (result vs Hurkacz irrelevant)
  • Rune d. Sinner:
    • Hurkacz d. Djokovic or Djokovic d. Hurkacz 2-1: Rune wins group, Sinner 2nd
    • Djokovic d. Hurkacz 2-0:
      • Rune d. Sinner 2-0: Rune wins group, Djokovic 2nd
      • Rune d. Sinner 2-1: Standings decided on games won/lost %; Djokovic practically guaranteed to be in
With a Djokovic 2-0 and Rune 2-1, I can't find a permutation of games won/lost that would leave Novak out. In that scenario, one of Rune or Sinner can come out ahead of Novak in games won, but not both
Click to expand...

Well worst case would be Nole 7:6, 7:6, Rune 6:0, 6:7, 6:0, try that out, but I think Djoker still passes?
 
Rudiiii said:
Well worst case would be Nole 7:6, 7:6, Rune 6:0, 6:7, 6:0, try that out, but I think Djoker still passes?
Click to expand...
Yes, because the games won would end up:

1. Rune: 34-26 (56.67%)
2. Djokovic: 51-48 (51.52%)
3. Sinner: 39-44 (46.99%)

Sinner would be eliminated in this scenario
 
Last edited:
[content deleted by user]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rudiiii said:
Well worst case would be Nole 7:6, 7:6, Rune 6:0, 6:7, 6:0, try that out, but I think Djoker still passes?
Click to expand...

Without doing the count, in this case Nole will easily beat Sinner.

The worst case would be something like:
Djokovic 7-6 7-6
Rune wins large enough to surpass Djokovic but not enough to let Djokovic surpass Sinner.

Winning 2-0 Djokovic would be at least +3 in game difference(He is +1 now, and +1 for two sets with 7-6 7-6).
Rune is -3 now, so he has to win at least 5 games more than Sinner going +2(With less game played I think he has a chance to have a better percentual than Nole at +2, but not at +1).
Sinner is +6 right now, if he lost 5 game more than Rune he would be +1, so worst than Nole.

Likely doesn't exist a combination who takes out Nole.
 
FedeRadi said:
Without doing the count, in this case Nole will easily beat Sinner.

The worst case would be something like:
Djokovic 7-6 7-6
Rune wins large enough to surpass Djokovic but not enough to let Djokovic surpass Sinner.

Winning 2-0 Djokovic would be at least +3 in game difference(He is +1 now, and +1 for two sets with 7-6 7-6).
Rune is -3 now, so he has to win at least 5 games more than Sinner going +2(With less game played I think he has a chance to have a better percentual than Nole at +2, but not at +1).
Sinner is +6 right now, if he lost 5 game more than Rune he would be +1, so worst than Nole.

Likely doesn't exist a combination who takes out Nole.
Click to expand...
oh you are making me want to take paper and write a couple of equations :D , tomorrow, I will deal with this more thoroughly, it is 2 am in my country now
 
FedeRadi said:
Without doing the count, in this case Nole will easily beat Sinner.

The worst case would be something like:
Djokovic 7-6 7-6
Rune wins large enough to surpass Djokovic but not enough to let Djokovic surpass Sinner.

Winning 2-0 Djokovic would be at least +3 in game difference(He is +1 now, and +1 for two sets with 7-6 7-6).
Rune is -3 now, so he has to win at least 5 games more than Sinner going +2(With less game played I think he has a chance to have a better percentual than Nole at +2, but not at +1).
Sinner is +6 right now, if he lost 5 game more than Rune he would be +1, so worst than Nole.

Likely doesn't exist a combination who takes out Nole.
Click to expand...
I just can't find any combination that would leave Novak out. The closest would be something like:
  • Djokovic d. Hurkacz, 7-6 7-6
  • Rune d. Sinner, 6-3 6-7 6-3
Then games won would be:

1. Djokovic: 51-48 (51.52%)
2. Rune: 34-32 (51.52%)
3. Sinner: 45-44 (50.56%)

(Sinner would also be out in this scenario)
 
Last edited:
Rudiiii said:
oh you are making me want to take paper and write a couple of equations :D , tomorrow, I will deal with this more thoroughly, it is 2 am in my country now
Click to expand...
jm1980 said:
I just can't find any combination that would leave Novak out. The closest would be something like:
  • Djokovic d. Hurkacz, 7-6 7-6
  • Rune d. Sinner, 6-3 6-7 6-3
Then games won would be:

1. Djokovic: 51-48 (51.52%)
2. Rune: 34-32 (51.52%)
3. Sinner: 45-44 (50.56%)

(Sinner would also be out in this scenario)
Click to expand...

Without equations, I think there is a fairly strict demonstation that a combination that takes out Nole doesn't exist.

We'll call "a solution X" a solution that let's Nole out.

1) Take this possible solution(Solution A):
Djokovic d. Hurkacz 7-6 7-6 (Worst possible solution for Nole %)
Rune d. Sinner 6-1 0-6 6-1 (Rune wins 12 games, Sinner wins 8 games)

2) You have these games ratios:
Djokovic 51-48 (51,51%)
Sinner 40-38 (51,28%)
Rune 28-27 (50,91%)
Solution A isn't a solution X.

3) You can create a Solution B only doing the following operations to Solution A:
(Note that you can't subtract game(s) won by Rune, because he has to win at least 12 in order to win the match.)

a. Add game(s) won by Sinner > This will make Rune's ratio worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X.
b. Add game(s) won by Rune > This will make Sinner's ratio worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X.
c. Subtract game(s) won by Sinner > This will make Sinner's ratio worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X.
d. Add the same number of game(s) won by both > This will make both ratios worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X. (That's because they're both > 50% in Solution A)
e. Add different number of games won by each player > That's basically doing (d.) and, after that, doing (a.) or (b.). So you're doing (a.) or (b.) with lower starting ratios for both players. > So Solution B won't be a solution X.

There isn't a solution B that is a solution X.

PS: Sorry if I had some mistakes with english here, but I'm not a native speaker and it's 3 AM here.
 
messiahrobins said:
F@@k me its easier studying nuclear physics.
Click to expand...

Short version from Nole's prospective:
If Nole wins 2-0, he is in SFs. Doesn't mind which is the result of Rune-Sinner. (It matter only for being 1st or 2nd in the group, but he can't be eliminated)
If Nole doesn't win 2-0 (Wins 2-1 or loses) he need Sinner to beat Rune in order to be in SFs. (He would be 2nd behind Sinner)
 
FedeRadi said:
Without equations, I think there is a fairly strict demonstation that a combination that takes out Nole doesn't exist.

We'll call "a solution X" a solution that let's Nole out.

1) Take this possible solution(Solution A):
Djokovic d. Hurkacz 7-6 7-6 (Worst possible solution for Nole %)
Rune d. Sinner 6-1 0-6 6-1 (Rune wins 12 games, Sinner wins 8 games)

2) You have these games ratios:
Djokovic 51-48 (51,51%)
Sinner 40-38 (51,28%)
Rune 28-27 (50,91%)
Solution A isn't a solution X.

3) You can create a Solution B only doing the following operations to Solution A:
(Note that you can't subtract game(s) won by Rune, because he has to win at least 12 in order to win the match.)

a. Add game(s) won by Sinner > This will make Rune's ratio worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X.
b. Add game(s) won by Rune > This will make Sinner's ratio worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X.
c. Subtract game(s) won by Sinner > This will make Sinner's ratio worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X.
d. Add the same number of game(s) won by both > This will make both ratios worse, so Solution B won't be a solution X. (That's because they're both > 50% in Solution A)
e. Add different number of games won by each player > That's basically doing (d.) and, after that, doing (a.) or (b.). So you're doing (a.) or (b.) with lower starting ratios for both players. > So Solution B won't be a solution X.

There isn't a solution B that is a solution X.

PS: Sorry if I had some mistakes with english here, but I'm not a native speaker and it's 3 AM here.
Click to expand...
I am a better programmer than a mathematician. I wrote some code that calculates all possible permutations of games won and lost in this scenario (there are only 1692 anyway), and in all of them Djokovic goes through

If anyone wants to check the math, all scenarios are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hoDFaQO6IvIKQKK7SsP0DZhBs/edit?usp=drive_link
 
Last edited:
[content deleted by user]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't want it to go to the stupid games thing. I still remember when Murray got screwed out of a SF spot because of that ridiculous rule despite having the same W/L ratio as Federer and Del Potro.
 
Rudiiii said:
I am seeing many threads asking what are the chances of Sinner, Djokovic and Rune making it to the SF of WTF, so I wanted to thoroughly explain every possible case.
First, lets write tiebreakers:
1. Most wins (if two guys win same number of matches, one with more matches played gets advantage)
2. H2H
3. Best % of sets won (if three guys are equalled)
4. Best % of games won (if three guys are equalled)

Now lets write every possible case (Won't write about Hurkacz, because, sadly, he has no chances of advancing, thanks to stinky Greek):

1.Djokovic wins 2:0 next match, Sinner wins his match (doesn't matter how):
Here Djokovic and Sinner advance, as second and first in group;

2. Djokovic wins his match 2:0, Sinner looses his match 2:0:
Only way for Djokovic and Rune to advance without looking at games % won, because Nole would be 5:3 sets, Rune 5:2, and Sinner 4:3

3. Djokovic wins his match 2:0, Sinner looses his 2:1:
Djokovic, Rune and Sinner all 5:3, totally depends on games % won, and I think it is highly likely for Rune to be on loosing side, thanks to ATP stupid rules

4. Djokovic wins his match 2:1, Sinner looses in any way:
Nole is 5:4 in sets played, and he is out of WTF

5. Djokovic looses his match in any way, Sinner wins his in any way:
Rune is out, as he has loosing H2H againts Nole

6. Djokovic looses his match, Sinner looses his:
Djokovic out of WTF

I hope I helped, and also if there is a error or if I forgot something, please feel free to point it out.


edit: so @jm1980 did the math, and probably the only way for Djokovic to exit this tournament after group stage is for him to not straight set Hurkacz
Click to expand...
Can anyone elaborate why herkacz won't advance. He can win 1 match and if Sinner wins against Rune, then all Herkacz, Djoker and Rune ends at 1 win each. Why tiebreaker won't be applied then as it seems logical
 
threehandedbackhand said:
I think you are missing one scenario.
Djokovic is not guaranteed to have at least +3. Why? Hurkacz can do the same what Tsitsipas did on Tuesday.

With Hurkacz retiring it's 2-0 for Djokovic in sets, but +0 in games difference. See the ATP rules, Rune's total game W/L stays unchanged at 16/19 after Sunday match.

Hence with Rune def. Sinner 6-1 0-6 6-1:
Sinner 40/38 51.28% SF
Rune 28/27 50.91% SF
Djokovic 37/36 50.68% OUT
Click to expand...
Yes but all these scenarios operate under the assumption that matches will be completed. Otherwise Hurkacz may still qualify
 
[content deleted by user]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
[content deleted by user]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
[content deleted by user]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
NoleFam said:
So basically what this thread has brought to light is that it's virtually impossible for Djokovic not to get to the SF is he beats Hurkacz in straight sets.
Click to expand...
It’s pretty easy to prove mathematically that it is in fact impossible. All Djokovic needs to guarantee qualification is a straight set win.
 
threehandedbackhand said:
I think he wouldn't as Hurkacz (1W 0L in the best case scenario) can't be ranked higher than Djokovic (1W 1L) and Rune (1W 1L). In that situation Red Group winner vs Green Group runner-up semifinal will be a walkover (assuming either Djokovic or Rune withdrawal).
Click to expand...
A retirement or disqualification automatically takes you out of the tournament. So in theory the next in line would take the spot
 
[content deleted by user]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
threehandedbackhand said:
I can't find any rule for that. Do you have any source?
Click to expand...
ATP Rulebook, Section IV, subsection D

4) In applying the tie-breaking procedures, a conduct default or retirement shall count as a straight-set win or loss. However, games won or lost in matches with the defaulting or retiring player shall not be counted in the application of subsection 3.d. (iii) above. A player who retires during the round robin because of illness or injury may continue in the competition if it is approved by the tournament Doctor.

Comment: This prevents a scenario where a player knows he only needs to win 1 set to qualify for the semi-finals from retiring once he has won a set.

5) Any player who is defaulted pursuant to the ATP Code during the round robin competition shall be defaulted from all other matches in the Championship and ATP default provisions shall apply, except for the following circumstances:

a) The loss of physical condition; or
b) Dress and Equipment.

6) Any player who withdraws from any round robin match after the first round shall not be eligible for the single elimination competition

Based on my interpretation of these rules, if Djokovic and one of Rune/Sinner retire from their matches, then they would be eliminated from the tournament. It's not explicitly stated in the rules who would replace them (or if they would be replaced at all), but the logical choice is Hurkacz
 
Last edited:
Well it all comes to Sinner now.. I am his fan (not die hard fan ofc) and tonight I will cheer for him more than I did for Zverev in RG 22 SF :D
 
jm1980 said:
A retirement or disqualification automatically takes you out of the tournament. So in theory the next in line would take the spot
Click to expand...
Now Djokovic at 2-1 record and 5-4 sets.

Sinner at 2-0 record and 4-1 sets. Already qualified??
If he loses in straight sets it will be 4-3. Why that would be greater than 5-4?

Rune is at 1-1 but is his set record. 3-2 ie 2-0 vs tipsitas considered?
If he wins 2-0 he qualifies with 5-2.
if he wins 2-1 he still qualifies with 5-3.

if he loses, then of course Nole qualifies.

please clarify as u have a deep understanding of the rules
 
roysid said:
Now Djokovic at 2-1 record and 5-4 sets.

Sinner at 2-0 record and 4-1 sets. Already qualified??
If he loses in straight sets it will be 4-3. Why that would be greater than 5-4?
Click to expand...
Yes, because they use sets won/lost percentage as the tiebreaker

5-4 = 55.6%
4-3 = 57.1%
roysid said:
Rune is at 1-1 but is his set record. 3-2 ie 2-0 vs tipsitas considered?
If he wins 2-0 he qualifies with 5-2.
if he wins 2-1 he still qualifies with 5-3.

if he loses, then of course Nole qualifies.

please clarify as u have a deep understanding of the rules
Click to expand...
Yes, Rune was awarded 2-0 win thanks to Tsitsipas retiring, in accordance with the rules

Note that even if Tsitsipas retired from 6-0 5-0 up, Rune would still have been given a 2-0 win
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

aldeayeah
  • Poll Poll
ATP Finals 2023: Green Group scenarios going into the final day
2
Replies
50
Views
3K
tudwell
T
M
Who gets out of Djokovic group
Replies
48
Views
2K
Neptune
Neptune
G
  • Poll Poll
Sinner can boot Djokovic from the tournament if he tanks to Rune
Replies
41
Views
2K
chrischris
C
F
  • Poll Poll
Who has to play first? (2023 WTF RR Gr. A)
Replies
3
Views
352
FedeRadi
F
zvelf
  • Poll Poll
Who was the better hard-court player, 2004 Andre Agassi or 2023 Novak Djokovic?
8 9 10
Replies
486
Views
20K
fedfan24
F
Back
Top