Yes of course, that is more likely, he only has to win one more vs Rafa needing five more.
I reckon Nadal will end up with 19 tbh. I can't see him getting more than that but I certainly can see him ending up with less than that. If he does, then damn what an incredible career, to win 19 majors and be second only to Federer isn't a shame at all, especially if it's only by 1 or 2.
Fed is reaching his limit imo. This AO, he didn't really have to work hard (only in the final) but the eye test tells me he was not on the same level as last year. Just saying I'm seeing signs that he won't be in major winning form going forward. Age catches up with every man and at 36 going on 37, he will need a draw at Wimbledon similar to last year to win it. I can't see him winning RG ever again and tbh I don't see him winning the US Open again either. So this WIM will be his last shot imo.
Nadal otoh, same can be said about him at Wimbledon. Can't see him ever winning it again (maybe if he gets a very favorable draw being his only hope), but I can see him winning 1 more US Open or believe it or not, even 1 more AO but not both.
Realistically though, he probably gets 2 more RG and 1 more USO, hence the 19 prediction.