Can't say I agree. Evans has played Alcaraz 4 times and he's only ever won a single set to Alcaraz's 9, not to mention that since Canada Evans has either gone out R1 or lost to Alcaraz in every tournament except Adelaide (Cincy, USO, Chengdu, Beijing, Shanghai, Sweden, Vienna). And in Adelaide, Evans still just made the 2nd round. Evans' greatest win was in 2021 Monte Carlo over Djokovic. Apart from that, he doesn't do particularly well against players inside the top 8. Bublik, despite having some tricky shots, also doesn't seem like he'll be beating Alcaraz.
Paul's been a tough matchup also but I don't expect him to do much. His last flash of brilliance was against Alcaraz last year in Canada. If he takes out Alcaraz again, then it'll just be a matchup issue. But Paul's ceiling is under Shelton's and Shelton and Dimitrov seem to be in better form so far this year.
The biggest thing that matters is the later stages. Since SF-F are fairly balanced (with slight differences, maybe 0.5+/-), the biggest changes come in the QF/R4. Zverev might be the strongest QF (debatable), but there's no backups there. If Zverev gets upset, Alcaraz gets a practical bye in the QF. Since Paul's ceiling is also under Dimitrov/Shelton and probably about as good as Khachanov/Tiafoe, I can't in good conscience say his draw is tougher than Medvedev's. Especially as Medvedev can get a resurgent FAA, followed by an in-form Dimitrov, then a pretty good Rune, Alcaraz, Djokovic/Sinner. If that draw turns up, it's definitely harder than Bublik, Paul (even a bad matchup), Zverev, Medvedev, Djokovic/Sinner.
Tsitsipas does tend to do well in Australia, but in the YEC he lost both matches he played (almost everyone considered him a walking bye) and he hasn't played a match since then. Not to mention Sinner was 4/23 on BPs in his 5-setter against Tsitsipas last year. A bit better and Tsitsipas goes out R4. Contrast that with Rune whose last 3 tournaments were: made the Brisbane final (in form), barely lost to both Sinner and Djokovic at the YEC (both finalists), lost to eventual winner Djokovic at Paris. Tsitsipas did play decently before that, which is why I'm not completely discounting him - I think the 5-8 seeds are all somewhere in the same ballpark if uninjured. But if we account for injuries, Tsitsipas is likely to be affected by his.
Re-Sinner: Yes, he was in form in November. It's January. He may have gained a new gear and that's why I'm saying he's just as dangerous as 5-time slam finalist and 1-time champ Daniil Medvedev despite never making a hardcourt slam semi. I'm still not going to put him above Medvedev just yet. I'd say he's likelier to make an upset happen, but Medvedev's likelier to make it to the semifinal and more likely to put up a tiring fight if he makes it there.
