top players vs rune/musetti/shelton

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
And ofcourse he is not like Federer, lol

Musetti lacks weapons. That is his biggest problem. He is never top of any list.

I will put some numbers of top/main players and see where Musetti is compared to them.

NameServeImpReturn In playReturn in play W%FHP/MatchBHP/MatchNet Frq %Net W %
Sinner37.27052.111.75.71075.1
Alcaraz34.770.453.111.42.614.373.4
Zverev39.671.646.94.95.312.766.8
Djokovic3872.252.213.16.314.071.7
Medvedev34.274.748.985.5965.2
Tsitsipas37.169.746.911.4-2.612.572.1
Shelton40.369.142.95.8-2.21660
Rune33.364.243.95.80.714.363
Musetti29.673.946.992.210.167.3

  • SvImpact – Serve Impact. To measure how much the serve influences points won even when the return comes back. The formula used here reflects the average men’s player in the 2010s: unreturned serves, plus 50% of first-serve points won on the server’s second shot, plus 40% of first-serve points won on the server’s third shot, plus 20% of first-serve points won on the server’s fourth shot, all divided by the number of serve points. It is possible to revise the formula for individual players. SvImpact is not included on women’s pages because, on average, the serve has no influence on winner/induced forced error rates for later shots, so it is equivalent to Unret%.
  • FHP/Match – Forehand Potency per match. FHP and BHP (Backhand Potency) are stats I invented to measure the effectiveness of particular groundstrokes. It adds, roughly, one point for a winner and one half point for the shot before a winner, and subtracts one point for an unforced error. On a per-match basis, the stat is influenced by the length of the match and the number of shots hit. Because each point can be counted 1.5 times in FHP (one for a forehand winner, one-half for a forehand that set it up), divide by 1.5 for a number of points that the forehand contributed to the match, above or below average. For instance, a FHP of +6 suggests that the player won 4 more points than he or she would have with a neutral forehand.
  • BHP/Match – Backhand Potency per match. Same as FHP, but for topspin backhands. I’ve occasionally calculated backhand-slice potency as well, but slices are not included in BHP itself.

I considered top 5 first , because they are the best players for last 2 years, and will probably be best in next 2 as well.
Then I am taking Tsitsipas, a declining force who once was closer to these top 5.
Then Shelton, Rune and Musetti, 3 very similar aged players , with Musetti being the oldest of the three.

Some of the observations from this.
Djokovic is top 3 across the board. This is very surprising given his recent struggles. But he is third in serve potency, behind Shelton and Zverev and highest in both forehand and backhand potency.
Alcaraz is first in return in play won and net play but he is decent in rest of the criterias.
Sinner is worse than both Djokovic and Raz in most statistics.

Now coming to bottom three, they are worse than in most of the criteria. While Musetti does not lack weapons, his weapons do not pop off like even Tsitsipas.
The gap to bridge between the bottom 3 and top 5 is just too high. While Tsitsipas is right in the middle of both, he can lose to the youngest stars at the same time, he can beat the top 5, at least Medvedev who has fallen off quite a bit recently.

PS : All data taken from Tennis Abstract, I do not own any.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Tsitsipas has declined so much on backhand while Rune on everything.

Yet Tsitsipas possess one of the most potent forehands today.

The data is not biased like fans
 
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