Toughest & easiest possible draws for the Big 4

[illkhiboy]

Based on the seedings, what could be the easiest and toughest possible draws for each of the big four? Here are my thoughts:

Murray

R16) Any of the seeds from 13-16 can be tough (Monaco, Monfils, Verdasco [who's beaten him in a Slam before], Almagro).

QF) Berdych - Berdych beat him at RG before and has the power to hit through Murray's defenses

Tsonga - Since losing to him at the '08 AO, Murray's won four straight times plus Tsonga is mediocre on clay.

SF) Djokovic: Murray almost beat Nole last year in Rome. Has the game to trouble him on any surface and would much rather face him than Nadal on clay.

Nadal: If Murray can get his head together, I think he is one of the few who has the game to beat Nadal. But....it's 10-90 at this point.

Federer

R16) None of these four look troublesome for Federer but I'd give Verdasco the best shot since he can trouble Fed with his lefty forehand on clay and has plenty of firepower.

QF) Ferrer - 13-0!

Berdych - Realistically, a QF match up against Berdych is the only way I see Federer losing before the semis. Or unless Del Po finds his best form. There last 5-6 matches have been crazy tough, and Federer seems to fear him a bit.

SF) Djokovic - It will be really tough for Federer to beat him again. But I think Federer was content to let the Djoker win in Rome (partly because it was going to require a monumental effort). He didn't play the slice often enough - last year he knifed Nole to death. He played a lot of short slices and threw Djokovic off his rhythm.

Nadal - This is obviously the tougher match-up siNCE Nadal is Clay-God and Federer has never beaten him here. But with Nadal a bit more prone to mental lapses, and Federer having finally found the right tactics to play him, anything can happen.

Match-up wise, I think Federer's backhand has been holding up better against Nadal than against Djokovic of late (BH broke down end of US Open semi and in Rome).

Federer just needs to get into enough of Nadal's service games (he struggled when returning in 06-07). His own hold game is good enough for him to hold comfortably most of the times. And he really has to persevere through that one game of each set when Nadal finds inspiration to go up 0-30. It's not impossible.

Nadal

R128) Davydenko
R64) Nalbandian

R16) Monaco Can keep Nadal out for 3 hours but just don't see him winning.

Verdasco Verdasco has a lethal forehand and that's why I always give him a chance against Nadal. He's come close quite a few times and finally broke through in Madrid (though his over-the-top celebration perhaps shows why he's struggled so much against Nadal in the first place). His firepower (and left-handedness) make him a threat to Nadal.

QF) Ferrer To his credit, since being mauled by Murray in their WTF RR match in 2010, Ferrer has revived himself and added more punch to his forehand.

He came close in Barcelona and Rome, and crumbled towards the end in both when he missed out on his chances. But the good thing is, he always gets back up. If he can sneak out one set against Rafa...it could be game on. Near impossible for him to out-grind Rafa, but could keep him out for 4 hours...which could set Rafa up for...

SF) Federer But Fed needs Nalbandian, Davydenko, Fognini, Verdasco and Ferrer to keep Nadal out for 3.5 hours each (and for Xisca to give him a happy massage right before he takes court)...

 

[jakemcclain32]

Berdych has the biggest opportunity to go up LARGE of any of the Top 7. He lost first round last year. One win and he gains points.

 

[Clay lover]

No Delpo

 

[batz]

No Delpo

None of the top 4 can be drawn to face Delpo in R4 - the earliest they could play him would be in QFs.

 

[batz]

Based on the seedings, what could be the easiest and toughest possible draws for each of the big four? Here are my thoughts:

Murray

R16) Any of the seeds from 13-16 can be tough (Monaco, Monfils, Verdasco [who's beaten him in a Slam before], Almagro).

QF) Berdych - Berdych beat him at RG before and has the power to hit through Murray's defenses

Tsonga - Since losing to him at the '08 AO, Murray's won four straight times plus Tsonga is mediocre on clay.

SF) Djokovic: Murray almost beat Nole last year in Rome. Has the game to trouble him on any surface and would much rather face him than Nadal on clay.

Nadal: If Murray can get his head together, I think he is one of the few who has the game to beat Nadal. But....it's 10-90 at this point.

Murray is 8-1 v Verdasco - I think he is by far the easiest R4 opponent. Agree with the rest.

 

[Warmaster]

Berdych can trouble Nadal more than Ferrer.

 

[jakemcclain32]

Ok, quit the 13-0 garbage right now. That can end in a heartbeat, at any tournament, anywhere. Ask Nadal with Verdasco sauce.

 

[illkhiboy]

Ok, quit the 13-0 garbage right now. That can end in a heartbeat, at any tournament, anywhere. Ask Nadal with Verdasco sauce.

I agree that stats can be misleading. But Ferrer never really bothers Federer. It's something about the match-up including:

1) Ferrer's crosscourt backhand stays low (relative to Djokovic's for instance)
2) Fed's slice bothers Ferrer
3) Fed seems to anticipate really well against Ferrer
4) Ferrer doesn't have the right weapons to bother Federer. Not enough firepower on the forehand - even when he gets on top, Federer's slice neutralizes the point well and Ferrer doesn't get that nice high ball (that he can often can get against Nadal) to crush.
5) His serve is just nice for Federer.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

I agree that stats can be misleading. But Ferrer never really bothers Federer. It's something about the match-up including:

1) Ferrer's crosscourt backhand stays low (relative to Djokovic's for instance)
2) Fed's slice bothers Ferrer
3) Fed seems to anticipate really well against Ferrer
4) Ferrer doesn't have the right weapons to bother Federer. Not enough firepower on the forehand - even when he gets on top, Federer's slice neutralizes the point well and Ferrer doesn't get that nice high ball (that he can often can get against Nadal) to crush.
5) His serve is just nice for Federer.

This. Ferrer has nothing to hurt Fed. He doesn't have the big serve of Roddick that when on allows him to win 1 out of every 15 matches.

 

[veroniquem]

Talk about a biassed analysis. According to it, Nadal is the one that has the highest risk for dangerous opponents (and the highest # of them) at RG. Seriously?
The only reason Verdasco did anything vs Nadal in Madrid is because of the surface issue. You know it, Nadal and Verdasco know it and everyone else know it. Lol at Verdasco being a serious contender for the upset at RG.
Ferrer had nothing left in the tank after 1 set of clay court tennis vs Rafa in Rome. He was totally and thoroughly gassed but somehow it will be easy for this poor 30 year old guy to find enough energy in a 5 setter against Rafa at RG That is such insane logic, I don't know what to do with it.
Fed is a more credible threat but even Fed is hands down less of a threat to Rafa than Rafa is to him.
Other than Djoko, it's hard to see an opponent for Nadal that should be in the red and even Djoko already got straight setted twice by Rafa on clay this year.

 

[jakemcclain32]

Talk about a biassed analysis. According to it, Nadal is the one that has the highest risk for dangerous opponents (and the highest # of them) at RG. Seriously?
The only reason Verdasco did anything vs Nadal in Madrid is because of the surface issue. You know it, Nadal and Verdasco know it and everyone else know it. Lol at Verdasco being a serious contender for the upset at RG.
Ferrer had nothing left in the tank after 1 set of clay court tennis vs Rafa in Rome. He was totally and thoroughly gassed but somehow it will be easy for this poor 30 year old guy to find enough energy in a 5 setter against Rafa at RG That is such insane logic, I don't know what to do with it.
Fed is a more credible threat but even Fed is hands down less of a threat to Rafa than Rafa is to him.
Other than Djoko, it's hard to see an opponent for Nadal that should be in the red and even Djoko already got straight setted twice by Rafa on clay this year.

A couple weeks earlier, Ferrer was stronger than a bull in the final against Nadal, and lost 7-6 7-5.

It is VERY hard to gas Ferrer out. Nadal just turned up the jets in the second set, and that was the end of it. The five set format is one of the reasons I picked him in the first place.

 

[iriraz]

A couple weeks earlier, Ferrer was stronger than a bull in the final against Nadal, and lost 7-6 7-5.

It is VERY hard to gas Ferrer out. Nadal just turned up the jets in the second set, and that was the end of it. The five set format is one of the reasons I picked him in the first place.

Ferrer is a great clay courter but he always seems to struggle at the French.
Only 2 quarters in his career are certainly not a lot;probably he struggles to adapt to the different conditions here.

 

[veroniquem]

Ferrer didn't get a set off Rafa in their last 2 matches and even got bageled for his efforts. What is gonna change at RG? You think Rafa will be less motivated or something?

 

[jakemcclain32]

Ferrer didn't get a set off Rafa in their last 2 matches and even got bageled for his efforts. What is gonna change at RG? You think Rafa will be less motivated or something?

Better not be.

Think about it. Ferrer's heading towards 31. His shelf life is short, and he's playing well. You don't think he doesn't feel a little more motivation to go after it before his game goes to hell?

 

[veroniquem]

Better not be.

Think about it. Ferrer's heading towards 31. His shelf life is short, and he's playing well.

And Rafa is playing better. Now what?

 

[jakemcclain32]

And Rafa is playing better. Now what?

Whoopie. Makes no difference whatsoever once they get on that court.

Rafa's big thing is that he just finds ways to turn up the jets when necessary. He played insultingly bad against Granollers, but Marcel was just in awe of him.

For all Nadal's legendary clay wins, and he has them, he is capable of some awful performances.

 

[veroniquem]

What? No, Rafa didn't play "awful" vs Granolllers. People really go to extremes on this board.
Rafa is playing at a very high clay level right now, much better than last year and he has more confidence too.

 

[jakemcclain32]

You kidding? He played 14 games, and he was behind in most of them. He played awful!

Played pretty damned good against Ferrer, and turned up the jets on Novak.

 

[wintintu]

Good Initial post Author

 

[Bud]

Nadal fans pray he draws Davydenko in round 1

 

[batz]

Monfils is replaced by Dolgo as a possible R4 opponent for the top 4.

 

[nadal_GOAT_king]

Nadal - This is obviously the tougher match-up siNCE Nadal is Clay-God and Federer has never beaten him here. But with Nadal a bit more prone to mental lapses, and Federer having finally found the right tactics to play him, anything can happen.

Match-up wise, I think Federer's backhand has been holding up better against Nadal than against Djokovic of late (BH broke down end of US Open semi and in Rome).

Hahahahaha

But hope is a good thing, no? :lol:

 

[veroniquem]

You kidding? He played 14 games, and he was behind in most of them. He played awful!

He didn't play his best match of the week but mostly because he lost concentration a bit in the 2nd. There is a vast margin between "not his best" and "awful". And, no, he didn't play awful. Oh well, if you think Ferrer will win RG, I can't expect you to be the best analyst of the game in general, can I?

 

[Big_Dangerous]

He didn't play his best match of the week but mostly because he lost concentration a bit in the 2nd. There is a vast margin between "not his best" and "awful". And, no, he didn't play awful. Oh well, if you think Ferrer will win RG, I can't expect you to be the best analyst of the game in general, can I?

The funny thing though is that Marcel Granollers is the #23 ranked player in the world. So if Rafa playing awful beats him in straight sets 6-1, 6-1. Imagine how much worse it could get for Granollers if Rafa played magnificently?

All of this is according to Jake McClain though.

 

[Shaolin]

Isner could be very troublesome to whomever he faces. Plus the threat of Brian Baker looms large!

 

[cc0509]

Better not be.

Think about it. Ferrer's heading towards 31. His shelf life is short, and he's playing well. You don't think he doesn't feel a little more motivation to go after it before his game goes to hell?

Would you stop the insanity. Ferrer is not winning RG this year or any other and he is not beating Nadal if they should meet there this year. Who can take that claim seriously? :roll: