Toughest possible paths (based on a draw) and what actually happened in slams won

mahesh69a

Semi-Pro
The draw process brings a lot of luck factor into tennis. But what happens after the draw and how some seeds drop out leaving an easier path is equally important.

Here is the data for the toughest possible paths and how many of those matches turned to reality in the slams won

Federer


Tournament​
Toughest Possible Path
Seeds From Round 3​
Number of matches
That actually happened​
Toughest possible
QF, SF, F happened?​
W2003​
29+16+8+1+2​
1​
No​
AO2004​
25+15+8+3+1​
3​
No​
W2004​
29+13+7+3+2​
2​
No​
UO2004​
31+16+6+3+2​
3​
No​
W2005​
25+13+8+3+2​
3​
No​
UO2005​
27+16+6+3+2​
2​
No​
AO2006​
30+14+5+3+2​
2​
No​
W2006​
30+13+7+4+2​
3​
No​
UO2006​
29+16+5+4+2​
1​
No​
AO2007​
25+14+7+4+2​
3​
No​
W2007​
26+13+5+3+2​
3​
No​
UO2007​
26+13+5+4+2​
2​
No​
UO2008​
28+13+5+3+1​
2​
No​
RG2009​
32+15+6+4+1​
1​
No​
W2009​
27+13+7+4+3​
2​
No​
AO2010​
31+17+6+3+2​
2​
No​
W2012​
29+13+6+1+2​
2​
No​
AO2017​
10+5+1+4+2​
3​
No​
W2017​
27+13+6+2+1​
3​
No​
AO2018​
29+13+7+4+1​
1​
No​
 

mahesh69a

Semi-Pro
Nadal

Tournament​
Toughest Possible Path
From Round 3​
Number of matches
That actually happened​
Toughest possible
QF, SF, F happened?​
RG2005​
30+16+5+1+2​
2​
No​
RG2006​
29+14+8+4+1​
4​
No​
RG2007​
25+14+8+3+1​
2​
No​
RG2008​
26+15+6+3+1​
3​
No​
W2008​
27+16+8+4+1​
2​
No​
AO2009​
29+13+6+4+2​
3​
No​
RG2010​
28+14+7+3+1​
1​
No​
W2010​
33+13+6+4+1​
3​
No​
UO2010​
29+15+8+4+2​
1​
No​
RG2011​
28+16+5+4+2​
2​
No​
RG2012​
32+13+8+4+1​
2​
No​
RG2013​
27+13+7+1+2​
3​
No​
UO2013​
27+13+7+4+1​
1​
No​
RG2014​
30+16+5+3+2​
2​
No​
RG2017​
31+14+5+2+1​
0​
No​
UO2017​
26+15+7+3+4​
0​
No​
RG2018​
27+14+6+3+2​
1​
No​
RG2019​
27+15+7+3+1​
3​
No​
UO2019​
32+14+6+4+1​
0​
No​
RG2020​
32+14+6+3+1​
1​
No​

Djokovic

TournamentToughest Possible Path
From Round 3
Number of matches
That actually happened
Toughest possible
QF, SF, F happened?
AO200832+15+5+1+22No
AO201129+14+6+2+14No
W201132+13+5+3+12No
UO201132+13+7+3+23No
AO201229+15+5+4+23Yes
AO201331+15+5+4+24No
W201431+14+6+3+21No
AO201531+13+8+4+23No
W201527+14+5+4+23No
UO201525+14+8+4+22No
AO201628+14+7+3+25Yes
RG201631+14+7+4+23No
W201821+7+4+2+12No
UO201826+12+2+4+11No
AO201925+15+8+4+24No
W201932+16+7+4+21No
AO202030+14+6+3+12No
AO202127+14+6+3+23No
RG202129+13+8+3+21No
W202130+13+5+3+20No
 
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mahesh69a

Semi-Pro
Observations ( I have to mention every time that I don't have a horse in the Big 3 race, just interested in how luck comes into picture statistically ) :

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams won, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 as mentioned above and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

Toghest possible Final opponent is seed 1 for Nadal most of the time because he was ranked 2 and was in the other half of the darw for extensive periods. Similarly, for Djokovic and Federer, it is seed 2 because they were the top seeds most of the time.
 
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P

PETEhammer

Guest
Interesting metric yet again. Novak just kills it with the hands he's dealt.
 

Lleytonstation

G.O.A.T.
Observations:

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.
This is all great and well, but we all know seeds dont always mean level of play.
 
D

Deleted member 781040

Guest
Fedster had tough competition...
...April Fools!
 

mahesh69a

Semi-Pro
Slam-wise percentages of toughest opponents actually faced are as below:

Federer at AO - 14/30 - 46.67%
Federer at RG - 1/5 - 20% - Sampling size is too small as it is just one slam won
Federer at W - 19/40 - 47.5%
Federer at UO - 10/25 - 40%

Nadal at AO - 3/5 - 60% - Sampling size is too small as it is just one slam won
Nadal at RG - 26/65 - 40%
Nadal at W - 5/10 - 50%
Nadal at UO - 2/20 - 10%

Djokovic at AO - 30/45 - 66.67%
Djokovic at RG - 3/5 - 60% - Sampling size is too small as it is just one slam won
Djokovic at W - 9/25 - 36%
Djokovic at UO - 6/15 - 40%

Nadal at US Open is definitely an anomaly at 10% - only 2 seeds faced out of a possible 20 seeds in 4 slams won.
Djokovic (66.67% at AO) and Federer (47.5% at W) had their toughest competition at their best slam.
 

BGod

Legend
Basically LUCK is how Nadal finally closed the Slam gap he had for 10 years.

But damn 2007 Wimbledon for Fed.
 

Third Serve

G.O.A.T.
Basically LUCK is how Nadal finally closed the Slam gap he had for 10 years.

But damn 2007 Wimbledon for Fed.
Nadal's not needed much luck to win his last few RG's. If he was actually struggling against this laughable clay field, we'd be worried. But he's mostly been cruising through.
 

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
Observations ( I have to mention every time that I don't have a horse in the Big 3 race, just interested in how luck comes into picture statistically ) :

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams won, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 as mentioned above and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

Toghest possible Final opponent is seed 1 for Nadal most of the time because he was ranked 2 and was in the other half of the darw for extensive periods. Similarly, for Djokovic and Federer, it is seed 2 because they were the top seeds most of the time.
All this tells you is that there were less upsets in the inflation era due to weak depth
 

MadariKatu

Professional
Observations ( I have to mention every time that I don't have a horse in the Big 3 race, just interested in how luck comes into picture statistically ) :

Nadal won 3 slams where he did not face the toughest seed possible in any round - RG 2017, UO 2017 and UO 2019. Federer and Djokovic have zero such titles.

Percentage of matches that actually happened according to toughness of the seeds in the draw:
Federer 44%, Nadal 36%, Djokovic 53.33%

Out of 58 slams won, only one of them had the actual path same as the toughest path - AO 2016

Toughest possible QF+SF+F - happened twice for Djokovic - AO 2016 as mentioned above and AO 2012. It never happened for Nadal and Federer.

Toghest possible Final opponent is seed 1 for Nadal most of the time because he was ranked 2 and was in the other half of the darw for extensive periods. Similarly, for Djokovic and Federer, it is seed 2 because they were the top seeds most of the time.
In RG 2017 Djokovic was ranked higher than Thiem, but he was not a tougher opponent, even less on clay. Also Sock was seeded higher than RBA or Fognini, but is clay, Sock is an absolute non factor there. According to seeding, in 2017 it would have been tougher to face Murray than Nadal. In the 2018 USO Djokovic did play Gasquet in the 3rd round, who was the only seeded player he could meet there, so he got in that 3rd round the toughest he could get. If that is relevant to the toughness of the whole slam path is a whole different story.

When hardcourt represents 8/14 of the tour, clay 4/14 and grass 1/14, seeding/rankings don't necessarily represent the toughest opponents; on clay and grass at least.

Edit: I changed the proportions between hard, clay and grass based on big events (slams, masters1000 and wtf)
 
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