Tri Level Nationals Predictions

[Ustatennis13]

Tri level nationals is this weekend in San Diego! Anybody have any predictions? I'm intrigued with the men's 3.5,4.0,4.5 division. Based on how dominant they have been, I would think the NJ middle states team would of been up there as one of the favorites but they seem to have a super tough schedule playing Hawaii who won it all last year and Florida who were the finalists. Anyone have any predictions?

 

[schmke]

I will try to find time to post something. Stay tuned.

 

[Ustatennis13]

Great, thanks! Looking forward to it.

 

[silverwyvern4]

Do the sections with individual qualifiers or the sections with normal teams usually do better at nationals? Is the NJ team team a qualifier team or normal team?

 

[Creighton]

Do the sections with individual qualifiers or the sections with normal teams usually do better at nationals? Is the NJ team team a qualifier team or normal team?

NJ is a normal team, but middle states is so small they're all essentially all star teams.

 

[TennisOTM]

Do the sections with individual qualifiers or the sections with normal teams usually do better at nationals? Is the NJ team team a qualifier team or normal team?

Looks like the NJ (Middle States) has a "normal" tri-level team that played a full season together as a team.

Last year's champs Hawaii are one of the teams that are built from qualifiers, i.e. the champs of three different "one doubles" leagues come together for Nationals. I think only a few of the Sections do it that way, and they don't always do well.

 

[silverwyvern4]

Are these the same middle states and Hawaii teams that faced off in the finals last year?

 

[Purestriker]

I will try to find time to post something. Stay tuned.

Really curious on the women's side as I have a friend there competing this weekend.

 

[silverwyvern4]

It looks like the NJ men's team is loosely affiliated with the same group of players that represented NJ at trilevel nationals last year.

 

[TennisOTM]

The Hawaii team looks to be mostly the same guys who won last year. The 3.5 and 4.5 guys are almost exactly the same - surprising they did not have more bump-ups.

 

[silverwyvern4]

I will try to find time to post something. Stay tuned.

Waiting for schmke!

 

[schmke]

Waiting for schmke!

Just posted on my blog!

Doing Tri-Level is new for my simulations, and it is kind of harder as there are three levels and various rules about eligibility, and some sections have the team assembled after a One Doubles Sectionals, and some teams play very little to advance, etc. So we'll see how it goes.

But for the 3.5/4.0/4.5 men starting on Thursday, it looks extremely competitive. SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and NorCal are most likely to advance to the semis, but none have a >50% chance of it so hard to call them favorites. A host of teams close behind. A few points here or there will swing the results one way or the other.

 

[schmke]

Just posted on my blog!

Doing Tri-Level is new for my simulations, and it is kind of harder as there are three levels and various rules about eligibility, and some sections have the team assembled after a One Doubles Sectionals, and some teams play very little to advance, etc. So we'll see how it goes.

But for the 3.5/4.0/4.5 men starting on Thursday, it looks extremely competitive. SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and NorCal are most likely to advance to the semis, but none have a >50% chance of it so hard to call them favorites. A host of teams close behind. A few points here or there will swing the results one way or the other.

Well, I did some fine tuning of the simulation to improve it for Tri-Level and things changed a bit.

Still no team is an overwhelming favorite, only one has a just over 60% chance of making the semis, but now five are over 50%: SoCal, Caribbean, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, and MOValley. Contenders are NorCal, Middle West, and Middle States.

And no team expected to be 4-0, five are at 3-1 so a good chance of a tie to advance.

 

[Ustatennis13]

Thanks for the update! The 1st day of matches should be able to tell us a lot. Should be an exciting few days.

 

[silverwyvern4]

Can we watch the trilevel matches on our computers at home? Barnes broadcasted the USTA nationals in October for viewers at home.

 

[TennisOTM]

Wow I didn't realize that the invitational also includes 3.0/3.5/4.0 and 4.0/4.5/5.0 events. I'm in one of the apparently rare sections that only sends teams for the "traditional" 3.5/4.0/4.5 event.

Are there areas that have active tri-level leagues for all three formats?

 

[silverwyvern4]

Did the matches not start at 8am? No results have been sent to tennislink

 

[Ustatennis13]

Matches got delayed. Started at 10:30. Middle States beat Northern Cal 2-1.

 

[silverwyvern4]

Matches got delayed. Started at 10:30. Middle States beat Northern Cal 2-1.

Are they using their most strongest men?

 

[Ustatennis13]

Seven team are 2-0 after day 1. Middle states lost to Hawaii 2-1. Seems like there might be a few 4-0 teams this year

 

[schmke]

Well, I did some fine tuning of the simulation to improve it for Tri-Level and things changed a bit.

Still no team is an overwhelming favorite, only one has a just over 60% chance of making the semis, but now five are over 50%: SoCal, Caribbean, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, and MOValley. Contenders are NorCal, Middle West, and Middle States.

And no team expected to be 4-0, five are at 3-1 so a good chance of a tie to advance.

After day 1, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, MOValley, Caribbean, Hawaii, SoCal, and PNW all 2-0, all five of the teams I called out as favorites in that group, PNW and Hawaii joining my five. Middle West and Middle States are 1-1 so still in the hunt.

 

[schmke]

With some teams playing their 3rd match, three are 3-0 and three more are 2-0, but with the remaining schedules I don't think we'll end up with four 4-0 teams, so a 3-1 team should make the semis.

 

[Creighton]

Any thoughts on the 3.0-4.0 nationals?

I got friends on both the Southern and Middle States teams.

 

[Roforot]

Can we watch the trilevel matches on our computers at home? Barnes broadcasted the USTA nationals in October for viewers at home.

Is this on youtube or some other streaming channel?

 

[Ustatennis13]

Hawaii wins it for the 2nd year in a row! Surprising they were not a contender in your simulation! Maybe these court conditions are super advantageous to them?

 

[schmke]

Hawaii wins it for the 2nd year in a row! Surprising they were not a contender in your simulation! Maybe these court conditions are super advantageous to them?

They like the conditions, and/or their ratings are suppressed by literally playing in an island, and ratings wise being an island too. Hard to have ratings that are accurate relative to other sections when there is very little cross-over of players.

 

[silverwyvern4]

They like the conditions, and/or their ratings are suppressed by literally playing in an island, and ratings wise being an island too. Hard to have ratings that are accurate relative to other sections when there is very little cross-over of players.

Somehow their 3.5s didn't get bumped last year despite winning nationals and beating the new jersey 3.5s 6--1 6-0 in the semifinals! One of the new jersey 3.5 that they bageled is now 4.5 computer rated but they got to stay 3.5!

 

[Creighton]

Somehow their 3.5s didn't get bumped last year despite winning nationals and beating the new jersey 3.5s 6--1 6-0 in the semifinals! One of the new jersey 3.5 that they bageled is now 4.5 computer rated but they got to stay 3.5!

Indeed. How the world does that happen?

 

[schmke]

Indeed. How the world does that happen?

Results not as good in league play as at the invitational. A combination of some unexpected losses and close wins offset the results from last year's invitational. Still, I had two of the 3.5s above 3.50 at year-end so I would have bumped them up, but the USTA didn't see fit to do so. By the result of this year's invitational, I think my ratings may have been proven more correct!

 

[TennisOTM]

Results not as good in league play as at the invitational. A combination of some unexpected losses and close wins offset the results from last year's invitational. Still, I had two of the 3.5s above 3.50 at year-end so I would have bumped them up, but the USTA didn't see fit to do so. By the result of this year's invitational, I think my ratings may have been proven more correct!

I'm curious what you prioritize for your ratings when the goal of predicting match results and the goal of matching NTRP might be in conflict. For example, did you calibrate these guys down to match the fact that they were not bumped, or did you use your >3.50 ratings for them to predict their match results?

 

[LocalRinger]

I think for Hawaii the tri level results do not count towards their rating

 

[silverwyvern4]

TeXas won both 5.0-4.0 and 4.0-3.0 Men's trilevel. !!!

 

[LocalRinger]

My bet is on Hawaii if they compete in both of those next year. I wouldnt be surprised if they achieve the triple crown 5.0-4.0 & 4.5-3.5 & 4.0-3.0.

 

[atatu]

Just out of curiousity how do you view the scores, I tried searching on tenninlink "advanced search" but couldn't find it.

 

[schmke]

Just out of curiousity how do you view the scores, I tried searching on tenninlink "advanced search" but couldn't find it.

Championship search

 

[silverwyvern4]

The winning woman teams are Norcal/Midatlantic/Socal

 

[TennisOTM]

Just out of curiousity how do you view the scores, I tried searching on tenninlink "advanced search" but couldn't find it.

Maybe check the year setting - it's a 2023 National Championship.

 

[J_R_B]

It looks like Middle States didn't have their top 4.5s there. All of the 4.5s on their roster are pretty good, but their ringers are Twyman (ex-D1 player), Lars (former international player), and Sid. Zach Anderson is a former NJSIAA state doubles champ, too, and he wasn't there, either.