Tri Match Stats/ Reports - Federer vs Raonic, Nishikori & Murray, Year End Championship round robins, 2014

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Milos Raonic 6-1, 7-6(0) in the Year End Championship round robin, 2014 on indoor hard court in London, England

Federer would go onto top the group with 3-0 record and reach the final, from which he would withdraw. Raonic would withdraw after losing another round robin match. The two had recently played in Paris semi-final, with Raonic winning

Federer won 75 points, Raonic 60

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (42/75) 56%
- 1st serve points won (32/42) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (20/33) 61%
- Aces 5 (1 second serve), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (27/75) 36%

Raonic...
- 1st serve percentage (28/60) 47%
- 1st serve points won (22/28) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (15/32) 47%
- Aces 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/60) 28%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 45%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 4%

Raonic served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 69%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 41 (7 FH, 34 BH), including 2 return-approaches & 1 drop-return
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 7 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 BH)
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (41/58) 71%

Raonic made...
- 46 (22 FH, 24 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 15 Unforced (9 FH, 6 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (46/73) 63%

Break Points
Federer 2/6 (3 games)
Raonic 0/4 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Federer 16 (10 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Raonic 18 (12 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Federer's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl return, 5 inside-out (1 at net), 1 longline
- BH passes - 2 cc, 1 longline, 1 longline/down-the-middle (not clean)

Raonic's FHs - 5 cc (2 returns - 1 runaround), 4 inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 longline pass
- BHs - 1 dtl, 2 inside-out (1 return)

- the FHV was a non-net, swinging cc & the BHV was a non-net pass

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 23
- 14 Unforced (5 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV)
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.6

Raonic 30
- 22 Unforced (15 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... the FHV was a non-net, swinging shot
- 8 Forced (5 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.1

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 7/10 (70%) at net, including...
- 0/2 serve-volleying, comprising...
- 0/1 off 1st serve and...
- 0/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/2 return-approaching

Raonic was 5/15 (33%) at net

Match Report
Serve (drawing freebies and setting up putaway balls) and return (high consistency - and leaving rest to misfiring opponent) does most of the work for Federer. Raonic has bigger serve but dishes out out low percentage and is one-dimensional and often not good in his FH inside-out based play. Also quite slow of movement (most importantly, on the return). Court is normal

‘Often not good’ doesn’t mean ‘always’ and after poor start where he’s breadstick brushed aside, Rao actually has better of second set going into tiebreak. Plays a poor one to be shut-out 0-7 in it though

In reaching 6-6 in second set, Rao wins 45 points, Fed 42, with Rao serving 37 points, Fed 50 (Rao winning 52% of points, serving 43% of them)

Break points Fed 0/1, Rao 0/4 (3 games) for the set. Gets some good returns off, adds a bit of variety to failed, nothing but FH inside-out game from first set and has Fed in some trouble, including down break/set point at tail end of the set

Either side of that bulk phase is all Fed - breezy first set and 7-0 ‘breaker. Both results mostly due to Rao playing poorly. The low in count doesn’t help, but deft returning from Fed too, who barely misses a return he can get racquet on, while leaving little that’s easy to attack

Stats of importance/interest -
- Rao with 47% first serves in (Fed has 56%). He’s got sizably better serve, but the figure speaks for itself
- unreturned serves Fed 36%, Rao 28%. Understating gap in serve-return contest, with high lot of Fed’s winners being third ball putaways from around the service line set up, credit for which should go to the
serve more than the actual winner
- Rao 5/15 at net. Some good passing by Fed, including when drawing Rao there. Takes away potential finisher from Rao, leaving him to over-rely on FH, which has match high winners and UEs
- Rao FH match high 12 winners (next best 10), match high 15 UEs (next highest 8)
- in-counts look important (Fed 56%, Rao 47%), but actually isn’t. Rao serves at good 65% in getting breadsticked and 38% in reaching tiebreak

Fed with much better of serve-return contest due to returning much better, while tailoring his serve nicely to Rao’s heavy-footed returning

Unreturned serves - Fed 36%, Rao 28%
Aces - Fed 5, Rao 10 (comes to Fed with 10% of first serves, Rao 36%)
Return errors drawn - Fed 21 (15 UEs, 6 FEs), Rao 7 (2 UEs, 5 FEs)
(double faults are virtually identical - both with 2, Fed from 33 second serves, Rao 32. Fed also has a second serve ace)

Polar opposite ways of success. Rao ace heavy, Fed not just drawing-errors biased, but UEs
With in counts of Fed 56%, Rao 47%
Neither of those counts are good, but in context of proportion of aces and errors drawn, Rao’s is more appropriate

He’s not winning points with anything short of untouncable ace, so appropriate for him to strain for more on the serve - and have lower in count. Fed blocking returns back, keeping them low, sometimes drawing Rao forward from stooping third ball shot. Good enough returns to keep Rao from attacking the third ball. And very consistent with it, with just the 7 errors. The 5 FEs are hard forced ones too. Unless its well wide as well as very powerful. Rao’s serve comes back, and he’s awkwardly low, denying him easy initiative - very nice returning from Fed

By contrast, even conservative first serves are liable to draw errors from Rao and that’s how Fed serves. Checked paced serves, not too widely placed. A step or even half a step needed to cover is more likely than not to draw error. 15/21 Rao’s errors have been marked UEs (7 first serves, 8 seconds)

In light of not needing good serves to win points, would expect higher in count from Fed
He does face substantially aggressive returning though (unlike other way around)
Rao with 3 return winners and significant more struck with potential point ending vigour. Minority reason for lower return rate is this (the main one is simple not good consistency, related to slow movement)

Statistical gist - freebies Fed 36%, Rao 28%
Practically, add about 5% to Fed for putaway FH winners from around the service line, for which the serve deserves all credit
And context of Fed being neutralizing with his returns (blocking them to stay low), Rao edgily dangerous

 

[Waspsting]

After that -
Winners - Fed 16, Rao 18
Errors forced - Fed 8, Rao 9
UEs - Fed 14, Rao 22

Rao’s FH is centerpiece of action, for better or worse
Match high 12 winners. Fed’s has 10 - about half of them putaway shots from service line set up by serve
Match high 15 UEs. Fed’s BH is next with 8, most of it drawn by pressuring FHs

Its an inside-out based showing. Either pressure and breakdown Fed’s BH or genuinely attackingly wide, Rao moves over to play FH inside-outs as much as he can. Plays BHs when he can’t help it. Goes line more often than cc with FH from deuce court. Its not big exaggeration to say he barely plays a FH cc

It would take exceptionally good movement to make that work, and Rao’s is on slow side
He’s at his best when throwing in a few more inside-in’s. Otherwise, tends to miss inside-out’s sooner rather than later. Ones he makes are forceful enough to test Fed’s BH’s shot tolerance and movement

Ground UEs by wing
- FHs - Fed 5, Rao 15
- BHs - Fed 8, Rao 5

… in conjunction with high FH winners (Fed 10, Rao 12) isn’t what it looks like, given cc isn’t staple rally
In classic, cc based rallying, those numbers would indicate Rao more secure BH, Fed very secure FH while also firing off that wing. Rao firing too, but more apt to miss

Actually, Rao barely playing BHs (hence, low UEs) and closest thing to staple play being Rao FH inside-out vs Fed BH cc, with Rao edging towards attacking with it (hence, high UEs for Rao’s FH and Fed’s BH). Low FH UEs for Fed because he’s not rallying much with it, high winners because serve sets up putaways

Neutral UEs - Fed 9 (+ 1 defensive one), Rao 7
Unexpected. Due to Rao not staying in neutral. Fed’s lot would be mostly BHs and pressured out against Rao’s stronger FH inside-out. Relatively difficult for UEs. Rao pretty solid

Winners - Fed 16, Rao 18
Winner attempt UEs - Fed 3, Rao 5
Insignificant difference. If anything, Rao’s showing is more impressive as he takes on chancey shots or balls not obviously there for kill shot. High lot of Fed’s winners are putaway FHs from service line by contrast

Errors forced - Fed 8, Rao 9
Attacking UEs - Fed 1, Rao 10
Here’s where Rao falls behind. Figures are influenced by each players defensive ability. Fed’s not particularly difficult to force error from, but Rao is pushover - slow, vulnerable to power or/and depth. Still, just 1 attacking UE from Fed is literally a step shy of perfect

Ironically, Rao’s FH cc proves very effective here. 4/6 of Fed’s match high FEs come in baseline rallies, most drawn by wider FH cc. Probably helped by surprise element. How often can you say that FH cc has surprise element working in its favour? He’s got 3 baseline winners in that direction also (same as inside-out), not counting 2 returns

All this is bringing home Rao’s strategy of over-done FH inside-out’ng and playing to Fed’s BH is off. He’s not quick enough to comfily get into position. He misses FH inside-outs often. Fed BH handling the force of it pretty well

Its most successful when he mixes in inside-in to keep Fed on toes, but for large parts of match, just persistent inside-out’ng and always at least, always the bulk

Rallying to net - Fed 6/6, Rao 5/15
Rao drawn in some of the time by Fed’s intentional, short slices, but he’s even clumsier of foot there than the back, not the best punched or placed volleys and again, straining to get them to Fed’s BH
Fed’s BH has 4 passing winners 2 passing FEs, so not much joy coming out of that. Rao has no volley winners at net (he does have 1 OH), 1 UE, 1 FE

Along with the passing, holding up pretty well against hefty FH inside-outs and some typical, adroit use of slices that jerk the slow-footed Rao up and down some or draw him to net, it’s a nice showing from Fed’s BH
10 winners, 5 UEs off the FH looks a vintage Fed showing. That’s deceptive, with easy lot of putaways accounting for the winners, not seeing much action the UEs

Match Progression
One sided opening set, with Fed returning smoothly and Rao playing badly
Rao with healthy 65% first serves in (in second set when he plays well, its 38%) so that’s not the reason for the breadstick. 38% of those first serves are aces, so quality of serves are good too
Just excessive, back-away FH inside-out play that he falters on. Fed meanwhile has only 2 return errors (to go with being aced 5 times)
Fed wins 12/15 of the second serve points in the set (both players' - 6/8 of his own, 1/7 of Rao's). In second set, second serve points won are identical 14/25 for both players

Bright start for Rao, with 2 winning returns in first 3 points. Fed knocks away couple third ball FH winners to hold

FH inside-out miss and getting stumped at net by powerful passes sees Rao fall to 0-40 in his first service game. Saves 2 break points with power serves but rally develops on the third, with Rao looking breakthrough with FH inside-out. When it doesn’t happen, he take on and misses BH dtl winner attempt

Few games later at 4-1, same rally and outcome brings up Fed’s second break point of game and Rao misses a pressuring FH inside-out on it. Fed serves out easily to 15

Rao has a run of missing 8 straight first serves across his first 2 service games of second set. Find a couple of aces just in time to hold for 2-1

Fed cruises through to 40-0 next game, as he’s been doing all match and that’s when competitive fun begins. Rao’s lashing returns land in and cause all kind of trouble for Fed. Takes Fed 16 points and saving 2 break points to hold

Identical, from 40-0 to 40-40 situation on next go around for Fed too, though this time, not due to damaging returns. Saves another break point, with Rao missing a big cut runaround FH return. He’d forced an error with wide BH inside-out return point before and knocked away BH dtl winner from normal position couple points before that, but Fed holds

Rao continues to play well, making returns and getting into rallies. On serve, he has low in count but mixes up FH directions to good effect

He’s got break/set point at 5-6 after opening game with BH inside-out return winner and reaching 30-40 with powerful return and follow-up pass against Fed’s sole second serve-volley of match. Misses next 3 returns - the first against a good serve, the next 2, routine second returns and its onto tiebreak

It’s a poor one from Rao with 3 FH inside-out UEs (2 of them third balls), a double fault and to wrap up, routine second return miss and he loses it 7-0

Summing up, Federer returning a lot better raises him to victory. Typical big serving from Raonic and a host of aces, but almost shy of untouchable is deftly blocked back in play, and kept low to limit how aggressive he’s able to be. By contrast, moderate serving from Federer is enough to draw larger lot of freebies and weak returns that can be easily dispatched at a stroke from the slow moving Raonic

Raonic has his moments when return fires and does control action. Overdoes FH inside-out based play and isn’t very good at it, especially when not mixing it up at all

Stats for Federer’s semi-final with Stan Wawrinka - Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Wawrinka, Year End Championship semi-final, 2014 | Talk Tennis

 

[Waspsting]

Federer beat Kei Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 in the round robin

Nishikori would advance to the semi-final, where he would lose to eventual champion Novak Djokovic

Federer won 63 points, Nishikori 48

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (33/59) 56%
- 1st serve points won (27/33) 82%
- 2nd serve points won (14/26) 54%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/59) 34%

Nishikori...
- 1st serve percentage (28/52) 54%
- 1st serve points won (19/28) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (11/24) 46%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (9/52) 17%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 52%
- to BH 43%
- to Body 5%

Nishikori served...
- to FH 30%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 9%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 38 (19 FH, 19 BH), including 4 runaround FHs, 3 return-approaches & 1 drop-return
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (1 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (38/47) 81%

Nishikori made...
- 38 (22 FH, 16 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (38/58) 66%

Break Points
Federer 3/7 (4 games)
Nishikori 0/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Federer 9 (5 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
Nishikori 13 (2 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)

Federer's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 3 inside-out
- BH - 1 cc

- 1 from serve-volley points, both FHVs (1 first volley, 1 second volley)

Nishikori's FHs - 1 cc, 1 lob
- BHs - 1 cc, 6 dtl (1 return, 2 passes), 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 lob

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 25
- 18 Unforced (5 FH, 11 BH, 2 BHV)
- 7 Forced (3 FH, 1 BH, 2 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1

Nishikori 29
- 21 Unforced (6 FH, 14 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH pass at net
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.2

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 7/16 (44%) at net, including...
- 3/5 (60%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/4 (75%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/3 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Nishikori was...
- 5/8 (63%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Match Report
Serve-return superiority is again key difference. This time, emphasis is on Nishikori with a harmless serve and Fed returning correspondingly more regularly than against Raonic (+ the loser with a double faulting problem). Court action is dominated by BHs and Nishikori’s shot takes on the role of Raonic’s FH as for better and for worse, at center of things. He’s better than Federer off the BH, but not enough to overcome large serve-return handicap.

Unreturend serves - Fed 34%, Nishi 17% (also, Nishi with high double faults)

Combined BHs have 25 UEs, the FHs just 11
BH winners and UEs - Fed 1 and 9, Nishi 9 and 14

Freebies just product of difference in serving quality (Fed good enough, Nishi not), though Fed again, serves within himself. Also again, given that, not the best of in counts. It works though

You’d think BHs being in play so much more than FHs would be due to Nishi pointedly directing action. He does lead play, but Fed matter-of-factly going along with it. Sort of of ‘cool with whatever, FHs, BHs, its all good’ approach to action from Fed, including on his service games

Fed’s sole BH winner is penultimate point of match, while Nishi has 9. He goes for his dtl winners and plays with court opening wide shots. Dominates highlights, but miss some, make some way. He’s no rock just trading neutral BHs either

Essentially, similar to the Raonic match
- contained serving from Fed, not great in count. Difference is Nishi with weak/harmless serve and Fed’s consistency returning it is impressive
- Nishi leading court action. Difference is he does it with BH. Not as outright attack-defend dynamics as other match. Rallies start off neutral, and in time, Nishi moving into attacking, Fed content to counter-punch

In counts - Fed 56%, Nishi 54%
First serve ace rate - Fed 21%, Nishi 4%
Second serve double fault rate - Fed 4%, Nishi 21%
Isn’t the mirror reflection of ace and double fault rates cute? Nishi with 1 ace, Fed with 1 double fault

Controlled and varied serving from Fed. Far from all out, going for winning first serves all the time and that’s not a great in count in that light. Nish taking returns quite early. Against strength of Fed’s serve, its possible to return consistently or even damagingly so doing, though obviously, not easy. Nishi gets the odd wide return off, but in all, failing with the attempts at initiative grabbing returning

On flip side, harmless serving by Nishi and Fed returning easily. Again slicing a lot to keep the ball low. He has his little tricks - 4 runaround FHs (couple are neutral, couple big cuts), 3 return-approaches (chips, and he loses them all), another drop-return and like his serving, picks and chooses when to bring them out

Return UEs - Fed 4, Nishi 8
Return FEs - Fed 4, Nishi 5

Surprising yield against Roger Federer serve. 6/8 Nishi UEs are against second serves
Forcing just 5 return errors does get to Fed serving within himself. For him, large lot of unforceful first serves - coverable by a step, moderate paced

Nishi with 5 double faults from just 24 second serves (Fed has 1 from 26), with Fed rarely/choosily attacing with second return - and not too vigorously. Simply, very bad from Nishi

Gist - unreturned serves Fed 34%, Nishi 17%, with Nishi double faulting a lot

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Fed 9, Nishi 12
Errors forced - Fed 8, Nishi 7
UEs - Fed 18, Nishi 21

Nishi leads action with BHs, Fed indifferent, not particularly looking for any side even when serving
FH UEs - Fed 5, Nishi 6
BH UEs - Fed 11, Nishi 14
…. and neutral UEs - Fed 10, Nishi 12

Its below average level BH action. Fed reacting is apt to give away UEs, Nishi also apt to just miss routine ball. Nishi does hit harder and teasingly wide sooner rather than later (when he hasn’t missed - either a routine shot or one of these edging towards starting to attack ones). Not too hard, not too wide and its an even contest between vigour of those shots and Fed’s movement and pseudo-defensive dealing of such balls

Nishi also going for dtl finishers from routine positions or after pushing Fed a little out of position. More the former. Nishi has 6 non-pass BH winners (and 3 passes), Fed just 1. Also misses trying

So BH action
- cc starting point, Nishi slightly harder hitter (not much)… both players missing a few shots
- Nishi either taking initiative to hit wider (not much)… both players missing a few shots in different ways
- Nishi going for dtl winners or point ending shots from routine positions more often than setting them up by pushing Fed out of position - makes a few, misses a few

Nishi getting better of things, but nowhere near close to overcoming his freebie (and double fault) handicap

FH play is minority. Largely neutral stuff. Fed picking his moments to strike with decent success. Fed not particularly trying to keep action on that side and not backing away much to take FHs in lie of BH. Nishi does look to quietly change up back to BHs

On the FH, Fed with good 5 winners (just 1 pass), 5 UEs, Nishi 2 winners (1 pass), 6 UEs
Not putaway winners for Fed like other match, but mostly shots from favourable positions. Its not shot-making from out of nowhere, but not putaway stuff either. Nishi not pushing envelope on this side either and looking to go line and get back to BH play

Fed choosily picking moments to manufacture approaches to net. Little wider shot and come in type of stuff. Not too successful. Wins just 4/8 rallying to net, and overall just 7/16 at net. That’s bolstered by 3/4 first serve-volleying (would feel he’d failed if that didn’t work) and weighed down by 0/3 chip-charge returning (nicely handled by Nishi)

3 winners, 2 UEs, 3 FEs for Fed at net
4 winners, 2 FEs on the pass for Nishi. Nishi winning this contest. He does have control of wide hitting, and having target brings it out

Not much effort by Nishi to get to net, where he’s 5/8, some of it drawn in by Fed’s intentional shorter slices. Seems happy looking to work Fed over with BH play

He does get better of BHs, but not by near enoough. Average consistency from both players on the stock cc stuff. Average showings when Nishi attacks mildly and Fed defends correspondingly (Nishi’s efficiency and Fed’s defence). Above average hit rate at best from Nishi when going for his dtl winners, with Fed not playing this game

Match Progression
Couple of BH UEs by Fed in his opening hold, which he comes through with 4 unreturned serves (3 of them return UEs)

He’s in a lot of trouble second go around with Nishi making the plays for better or worse - winning BHs mostly dtl, also misses. Game lasts 14 points and Nishi has 2 break points. Couple of aces, including to save first break point nose Fed ahead. Nishi misses attacking line FH on other break point

Then Fed breaks for 3-1. After double fault gets things to 30-30, Fed knocks off consecutive FH winners (cc pass and a nice inside-out)

Lovely running FH lob by winner by Nish in next game, but he’s down break point after that with more double faults and missed attacking BHs. Comes through to hold when Fed’s BH leaks couple UEs
Fed double faults to fall to 15-30 on the serve-out. Winning third ball FHs and a missed second return sees him close out the set

Nishi takes medical time out in between sets to have his wrist looked at

Second set is similar - Nishi looking to do things off the BH, Fed playing along, some net play from Fed and very regularly returning
Fed breaks for 2-1 - Fed with a winning BH dtl for a change and Nishi doing most of the rest, including another double fault
Its sloppy, neutral BH UEs (and another double) that sees Nishi broken again for 2-5
Fed saves a break point on the serve out with a good serve and brings up match point with a liquid, third ball BH cc winner. His only 1 for the match, before another strong serve ends things

Summing up, Federer with much better serve-return contest and Nishikori directing court action with BHs

Measured, serving display from the winner, with Nishikori faltering some trying to take returns early (not too aggressively, just pressuringly early). On flip side, Nishikori’s serve is harmless,
Federer returns with neat efficiency and importantly, Nishikori double faults regularly

Nishikori dictating baseline action with BHs, Federer reacting. Neither player is too impressive at any of it - both giving up routine errors, Nishikori’s rate going up when trying to attack moderately but Federer not upto defending too well when it comes off, Nishikori with a few shot-making winners and some errors trying too

Stats for Nishikori’s semi-final with Novak Djokovic - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Nishikori, Year End Championship semi-final, 2014 | Talk Tennis

 

[Third Serve]

Have you reviewed the 2018 YEC match between Fed and Nishikori? I thought that one was one of the worst matches I've seen at that tournament between two players.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Excellent analysis of not-so-famous matches by WaspSting in recent weeks.
Keep up the good work, friend.

 

[7thKingSlam]

Excellent analysis of not-so-famous matches by WaspSting in recent weeks.
Keep up the good work, friend.

He's been on that Federer ATP Finals 2014 grind here lol

 

[Waspsting]

Federer beat Andy Murray 6-0, 6-1 in the round robin

Murray needed to win the match in straight sets to qualify for the semi-final. Federer’s qualification from the group for loss of 13 games in 3 matches set a new record for the event. It would be broken the following day by Novak Djokovic, who would lose 9 games

Federer won 54 points, Murray 24

Federer serve-volleyed about half the time off first serves

(Note: I've made educated guess about serve direction and corresponding return data for a point based on partial, post-shot footage
Set 2, Game 2, Point 4 - marked as directed to and returned by FH)

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (14/36) 39%
- 1st serve points won (14/14) 100%
- 2nd serve points won (14/22) 64%
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (8/36) 22%

Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (19/42) 45%
- 1st serve points won (7/19) 37%
- 2nd serve points won (9/23) 39%
- Aces 3 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (8/42) 19%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 9%

Murray served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 66%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 30 (16 FH, 14 BH), including 5 runaround FHs & 4 return-approaches
- 5 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (3 FH, 1 BH), including 2 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach attempt
- 1 Forced (1 BH)
- Return Rate (30/38) 79%

Murray made...
- 27 (11 FH, 16 BH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- 3 Forced (3 FH)
- Return Rate (27/35) 77%

Break Points
Federer 5/6 (5 games)
Murray 0

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 11 (2 FH, 2 BH, 5 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Murray 4 (2 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Federer's FHs - 1 cc at net, 1 inside-in
- BH - 1 drop shot at net

- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first 'volleys' (1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH at net) & 1 second volley (1 FHV)
- 1 from a return-approach point, an OH
- 1 other FHV was a lob

Murray's BH passes - 2 cc

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 11
- 9 Unforced (7 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV)... the FHV was a swinging shot
- 2 Forced (1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Murray 31
- 17 Unforced (8 FH, 9 BH)
- 14 Forced (8 FH, 6 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.1

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 19/24 (79%) at net, including...
- 6/6 (100%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/4 (25%) return-approaching

Murray was 3/6 (50%) at net

Match Report
Beautiful, varied, all-court showing from Federer. Murray isn’t good, but wouldn’t think he was 0 & 1 awful

Fed’s showing has it all. There’s dashing FHs, both move-around ones and from normal positions, in both directions. Mixes up slices and drives off the BH and can’t seem to miss one if he tried (he misses 1 to be exact). He’s gliding about the court in a way he wasn’t other two matches. Lots of touch and drop shots and deliberate short slices, including on the volley. Bulk of offence is from net play - serve-volleys, coming in behind good FHs, chip-charges (he doesn’t do well with those) and a similar combo of firm and feel volleying as groundies

And again, very consistent returning. While slowish, this court also has low bounce that’s particularly receptive to Fed’s slices. The common thread in these 3 matches is how low his block returns stay. Not a powerful return, but does the job of neutralizing servers advantage. Gets his share of blasted runaround FHs off too. Only the chip-charges fail

He doesn’t serve well and has just 39% first serves in. If the first serves are bigger than middling showings of other two matches, its still not great. No aces. Murray has 3 - including a second that Fed’s moving the wrong way for

Murray is error prone. Partially due to Fed being so solid off the BH. He’s not pressuring off the ground, but that’s normal for him. Like Fed, has poor in count. His first serve though is probably better than Fed’s. Has double faulting problem, like Nishi. Misses a few returns trying to take them early but is steady enough on second shot too. There’s nothing wrong with his movement. Nothing to promise 0 & 1

Bad in counts from both players (Fed 39%, Murray 45%). What happened in this indoor tournament? Would expect a server like Fed to be hovering around 70% first serve percentage with contained serving. He’s not the only one. Other than these 3 matches, Stan Wawrinka would dish out 38% in the semi-final. At least he’s all in, going for service winners/overwhelming serves with virtually every first serve there, which makes it more understandable

Whatever’s going on with the in-counts, Fed winning all 14 of his first serve points here and high lot in other matches. To go with 64% second serve points won
Murray’s low in count is little more understandable as he’s often booming firsts big as can. Usually misses and tones it down to keep a better in count

Murray wins 37% first serve points, 39% seconds
The second serve number is weighed down by poor 4 double faults or 17% second serves. On up side, there’s an ace (Fed looking for big runaround return is caught out by direction) and he wins 3/4 points that Fed chip-charges

Fed’s very consistent, neutralizing block-slice returns effectively turning Murray’s first serve points into 50-50 ones, like common second serve points. And Fed being so much better in play accounting for him winning 63% of those points, virtually same as the 64% of his second serve points that he wins

If not always, regular (more often than ‘choice’) attacking second returning from Fed. The 4 runaround FHs are blasted shots, attempted overpowering finishers. Misses a couple too. 4 chip-charges, though he only wins 1 (and misses 1 try). This is the only round robin match that he doesn’t have a bona fida drop-return, and one of the chip-charges is close to one. There is some pressure behind Murray high lot of double faults

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Fed 11, Murray 4
Errors forced - Fed 14, Murray 2
UEs - Fed 9, Murray 17

All court offence from Fed, with net play the spearhead. Only 1 of his winners is from a baseline rally (he has 3 groundstrokes at net), but does swat FHs choosily. 8 of the errors he forces are in baseline rallies, 6 are passes

To start, just the 1 BH UE gives Fed very solid base. Murray has 9 and Fed has better of neutral UEs 4-12

Murray looking to play to Fed’s BH more plainly than Nishi did and Fed a wall, whether driving or slicing, even playing mildly attacking longline shots. That’s about extent of what Murray does to ‘attack’ (as in, a plan to win points, look to breakdown Fed’s BH)

On the FH, Fed playing along neutrally. Or swatting the chosen FH. Or hitting it slightly wide and dashing to net. No real difference in the balls he chooses to go after than those he plays along with

FH does bulk of forcing Murray’s 8 FEs in baseline rallies, but has just 2 winners (and 1 of those is a putaway shot at net). Misses a small 3 FH winner attempts from the back, the kind of FH shot-making that’s typical of him
The only errors Murray forces are 2 volleys, he rarely even strikes a potential error forcing shot in baseline rallies

Lot of touch and finesse to Fed’s offence. Drop shots and drop volleys. Drop shot Murray in and lob volley for winner 1-2 is among the most memorable plays of the match

Fed also serve-volleying 43% of the time off first serves, which doesn’t feel like a ‘half the time off first serves’ deal because his in count is so low
He’s 19/24 at net and has no UEs after a terrible one first point of the match
Approaches are craftily constructed. Good, slightly wide shots but not overpowering

Murray with a couple passing winners, forcing couple volley errors, while making 6 hard forced passing errors. He rarely sees a stable pass and doesn’t pass badly. Credit Fed’s point construction for good approaches from rallies

Match Progression
Fed misses a putaway swinging FHV to start match and after working Murray over to open court, misses a FH dtl would be winner to fall behind 0-30
Very long point develops after that and its Murray who puts teeth into it with BH dtl that Fed pokes back. Couple shots later, Murray misses a finer, more aggressive BH dtl

That’s virtually, the last piece of good news for Murray. Fed wins 49 points, Murray 16 from there to 6-0, 5-0, 0-30

First break takes 10 points to achieve. Murray comfily dispatching BH cc pass winner against a not-good chip-charge, but Fed winning 2 net points after that with an attacking FH dtl’ish shot and a drop-approach + FHV lob winner combo. Couple of aces see Murray to game point, but he double faults on it

In time, Murray misses third ball BH and is outlasted in FH cc rally to lose the game. 2 players have made 2 first serves in first 16 points of match

Fed loses 2 points in running through rest of set. Deftly picked up BH at net first ‘volley’ winner serve-volleying is worth mentioning. Breaks for 4-0 to love with 3 winners (FHV, rasping FH inside-in and OH chip-charge returning), and Murray missing routine FH

Run of 14 straight points won ends in game 6 when he loses a net-to-net exchange from a pseudo drop-return chip-charge combo. Goes on to break with a couple of Murray BH blinks, couple of FEs (1 mild, 1 pass)

First break of second set is probably best of the bunch. Virtual runaround FH return winner (Murray just tips the ball to the side), a deft BH drop shot at net and another flaming runaround FH return do the job (along with a Murray double)

Murray makes the errors to give up next break - first in long, fluid rallies, and they come earlier late in the game

There are players who would ease off at 6-0, 5-0. Fed isn’t one of them
Strong FHs and a drop approach, 0-15
Double fault, with Fed looking for a back-away ripped FH return, 0-30
Murray holds from there with 4 straight points - outpowering chip-charging Fed, getting a 2nd serve ace off as Fed again looks to back off to slam return to reach 30-30. Fed’s long overdue first (and only) BH UE of the match and a strong serve sees Murray get on the board (also, Fed's sole return FE for the match)

Fed serves out to 30 in a more power aggressive game, eventually finishing with a just-wide enough FH inside-out

Summing up, beautiful, varied showing from Federer, who seems to do whatever he feels like as and when he feels like it. There’s powerful FHs, there’s rallying along with the FH, there’s BH slices, there’s BH drives, there’s attacking with powerful FHs, there’s hitting FHs a little wide and dashing to net, there’s serve-volley, and drop shots and finesse at net. There aren’t many errors of any kind with all that going on

Murray is pretty loose off the ground, which might see him lose, but not 0 & 1
Main reason for the scoreline is Federer’s easy, neutralizing block first returning. It’s the real star of this entire run

It’s a pity he missed the final. Shanghai champion vs Paris champion, both players breaking previous records for games lost in getting through group stages. Potential there for a memorable one

 

[objection_]

Nice... I wonder how the stats went for the final

 

[7thKingSlam]

Nice... I wonder how the stats went for the final

Must be the greatest tease on planet earth. Both players absolutely dominate the group stages to an unprecedented degree, making for no drama but plenty of hype for the final, then there is no final.

Federer/Wawrinka at least brought plenty of drama, and I suppose decent quality although it's been a long time since I saw it (if at all). Isn't that the match where Wawrinka got in an argument with Mirka on the sideline?

 

[objection_]

Must be the greatest tease on planet earth. Both players absolutely dominate the group stages to an unprecedented degree, making for no drama but plenty of hype for the final, then there is no final.

Federer/Wawrinka at least brought plenty of drama, and I suppose decent quality although it's been a long time since I saw it (if at all). Isn't that the match where Wawrinka got in an argument with Mirka on the sideline?

Yeah, allegedly Mirka called him a crybaby. Think it arose from some beef where Wawrinka may have cheated on his wife, who was apparently good friends with Mirka. I just remember Stan being braindead and S&Ving on every match point he had.

 

[Waspsting]

Nice... I wonder how the stats went for the final

I didn't watch the Djokovic -Murray hit around they had in its placed, but the choice of Murray amused me

Djokovic-Federer would be first pick of match to watch of all the players assembled
Djokovic-Murray, the last

London crowd probably don't feel that way, which in circumstances, probably matters more than global TV audience
Wonder how the action was? As an exho, both players can ease up and play a fun set rather than they're patented push-fest. Would Murray feel obliged to lose in the end? Almost seems like bad manners not to

 

[objection_]

I didn't watch the Djokovic -Murray hit around they had in its placed, but the choice of Murray amused me

Djokovic-Federer would be first pick of match to watch of all the players assembled
Djokovic-Murray, the last

London crowd probably don't feel that way, which in circumstances, probably matters more than global TV audience
Wonder how the action was? As an exho, both players can ease up and play a fun set rather than they're patented push-fest. Would Murray feel obliged to lose in the end? Almost seems like bad manners not to

Yeah, would assume the local crowd would be happy to see their hometown boy play. Not too sure if it actually ended up being streamed globally, although I can't imagine it being the most exciting matchup to witness...