"Upset City" at 2023 RG

[RaulRamirez]

With two rounds completed - in both singles draws - at RG, as we approach the Round of 32, we have seen that there have been a lot of upsets.

As 32 players are seeded, if those seeds won their first two matches, every matchup would have two seeds competing.

In the men's draw, there are only 5 such matchups:

Alcaraz (1) v Shapo (26)
Djokovic (3) v ADF (29)
Fritz (9) v Cerundolo (23)
Tiafoe (12) v Zverev (22)
Norrie (14) v Musetti (17)


In the women's draw, there are only 2 such matchups:

Pegula (3) v Mertens (28)
Haddad-Maia (14) v Aleandrova (23)

I haven't studied this over the years, but I would expect half of the projected matchups to occur -- meaning 16 (collectively) instead of just 7.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Headed for that dreaded 2002 era. I call it the "Johannson Era". Anyone will be winning slams soon. The guys that are supposed to be dominant by now (Sinner, Tstsitsipas, Alcaraz, Med etc). Aren't dominant at all

 

[Kralingen]

Deepest most versatile field ever

 

[nolefam_2024]

Headed for that dreaded 2002 era. I call it the "Johannson Era". Anyone will be winning slams soon. The guys that are supposed to be dominant by now (Sinner, Tstsitsipas, Alcaraz, Med etc). Aren't dominant at all

You mean like 2007 Roland Garros when only THREE seeded R3 matches happened?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Or 2017 RG where 6 seeded R3 matches happened.

 

[beltsman]

You mean like 2007 Roland Garros when only THREE seeded R3 matches happened?

Players stopped caring because they knew it was a foregone conclusion of Fed vs Nadal

 

[nolefam_2024]

Players stopped caring because they knew it was a foregone conclusion of Fed vs Nadal

What A stupid reply.

 

[RaulRamirez]

You mean like 2007 Roland Garros when only THREE seeded R3 matches happened?

Wow. In both draws combined? But either way, a lot of upsets there. (Where did you find that stat?)
By the way, I'm not posting this with any agenda...just surprised at the number of upsets thus far...I've never charted this.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Wow. In both draws combined? But either way, a lot of upsets there. (Where did you find that stat?)
By the way, I'm not posting this with any agenda...just surprised at the number of upsets thus far...I've never charted this.

No in Men's only. I know you are not posting agenda. But Fedal fans on this thread won't skip a chance to bash the rest.

 

[ND-13]

No in Men's only. I know you are not posting agenda. But Fedal fans on this thread won't skip a chance to bash the rest.

Well, what interpretation is left to imagine if we say Sinner, FAA, Medvedev fail to make it to even 3rd round and Alcaraz lost a set to Taro Daniel ? Ruud also loses sets to no name player and struggles to win .. Lucky for Rune that Monfils retired. OP himself is astonished at the weak era.

 

[RaulRamirez]

Well, what interpretation is left to imagine if we say Sinner, FAA, Medvedev fail to make it to even 3rd round and Alcaraz lost a set to Taro Daniel ? Ruud also loses sets to no name player and struggles to win .. Lucky for Rune that Monfils retired. OP himself is astonished at the weak era.

As I'm the OP, that truly wasn't what I was thinking.
In all sports, you can make a case that "parity" shows either the depth of the field (or league) or it shows it to be weak at the top.
While Rafa's absence leaves a huge void, a tourney with Novak, Carlitos, Tsitsipas, Zverev (I guess), Rune and Ruud (and I'[m well aware of the criticisms that at least three of these guys get) is still a good draw (to me).

For the women, well, we still have their top 3 players in Iga, Saba and Ryba, and perhaps, another player or two who can do damage. Mostly, I guess we're awaiting any clash of those three ladies.

I was simply looking at the upcoming third round and - while I had a general idea that there had been a fair amount of upsets - was surprised by how many of the top 32 have been eliminated. It's not something I've charted or found elsewhere -- not saying that others don't track it.

 

[ND-13]

As I'm the OP, that truly wasn't what I was thinking.
In all sports, you can make a case that "parity" shows either the depth of the field (or league) or it shows it to be weak at the top.
While Rafa's absence leaves a huge void, a tourney with Novak, Carlitos, Tsitsipas, Zverev (I guess), Rune and Ruud (and I'[m well aware of the criticisms that at least three of these guys get) is still a good draw (to me).

For the women, well, we still have their top 3 players in Iga, Saba and Ryba, and perhaps, another player or two who can do damage. Mostly, I guess we're awaiting any clash of those three ladies.

I was simply looking at the upcoming third round and - while I had a general idea that there had been a fair amount of upsets - was surprised by how many of the top 32 have been eliminated. It's not something I've charted or found elsewhere -- not saying that others don't track it.

Ruud has not won beyond a 250. He is a completely useless player. And Tsitsipas top 10 record since 2022 will put Nishikori to shame.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

I like that you @RaulRamirez put Upset city in quotation marks cause a lot of them aren't upsets as we all know. Obviously a seed losing on paper looks an upset but there's always more to the story.

For instance on the ladies side.

#192 Elina Svitolina knocking out #26 Martina Trevisan.
Looks like a huge boilover, but anyone who knows tennis knows Svitolina is former #3 and only dropped down because she had a baby, she's returned and quickly won a title on clay last week and is ready to get back to the top 10 where she belongs.

Another one.
#333 Pavlyuchenkova beating #15 Samsonova.
Looks like an even bigger boilover til you remember Pavlyuchenkova was the runner up here at the French Open just 2 years ago but has battled injuries and had to end her season in May last year and couldn't defend her points.

Mens side:

Jarry beating #16 Paul.
Nicolas just won a title in Geneva with huge wins over Zverev, Ruud and Dimitrov and he loves the clay. Tommy not so much having lost 4 of his last 5 ATP matches on the surface this year.

 

[RaulRamirez]

I like that you @RaulRamirez put Upset city in quotation marks cause a lot of them aren't upsets as we all know. Obviously a seed losing on paper looks an upset but there's always more to the story.

For instance on the ladies side.

#192 Elina Svitolina knocking out #26 Martina Trevisan.
Looks like a huge boilover, but anyone who knows tennis knows Svitolina is former #3 and only dropped down because she had a baby, she's returned and quickly won a title on clay last week and is ready to get back to the top 10 where she belongs.

Another one.
#333 Pavlyuchenkova beating #15 Samsonova.
Looks like an even bigger boilover til you remember Pavlyuchenkova was the runner up here at the French Open just 2 years ago but has battled injuries and had to end her season in May last year and couldn't defend her points.

Mens side:

Jarry beating #16 Paul.
Nicolas just won a title in Geneva with huge wins over Zverev, Ruud and Dimitrov and he loves the clay. Tommy not so much having lost 4 of his last 5 ATP matches on the surface this year.

Those are three good cases -- I agree -- where these were upsets in number only, if you will.

 

[Bhagi Katbamna]

I mean, for the last almost 20 years, everyone was playing for second place anyways.

 

[Mustard]

Nothing will beat the 2002 Australian Open on this.

This is how the seeds did at the 2002 Australian Open. How's this for a seeds bloodbath?

According to seeding on paper, players ranked 17-32 should go out in the third round. The top 16 should all be in the Round of 16 (i.e. fourth round).

1. Lleyton Hewitt (first round)
2. Gustavo Kuerten (first round)
3. Andre Agassi (withdrew just before tournament began)
4. Yevgeny Kafelnikov (second round)
5. Sebastien Grosjean (second round)
6. Tim Henman (fourth round)
7. Tommy Haas (semi finals)
8. Pete Sampras (fourth round)
9. Marat Safin (final)
10. Goran Ivanisevic (second round)
11. Roger Federer (fourth round)
12. Guillermo Canas (third round)
13. Andy Roddick (second round)
14. Alex Corretja (first round)
15. Arnaud Clement (second round)
16. Thomas Johansson (champion)
17. Carlos Moya (second round)
18. Albert Portas (second round)
19. Jan-Michael Gambill (first round)
20. Fabrice Santoro (first round)
21. Younes El Aynaoui (third round)
22. Hicham Arazi (second round)
23. Nicolas Lapentti (fourth round)
24. Thomas Enqvist (second round)
25. Andrei Pavel (third round)
26. Jiri Novak (semi finals)
27. Sjeng Schalken (first round)
28. Greg Rusedski (third round)
29. Xavier Malisse (second round)
30. Nicolas Escude (third round)
31. Andreas Vinciguerra (second round)
32. Tommy Robredo (second round)

 

[RaulRamirez]

Nothing will beat the 2002 Australian Open on this.

This is how the seeds did at the 2002 Australian Open. How's this for a seeds bloodbath?

According to seeding on paper, players ranked 17-32 should go out in the third round. The top 16 should all be in the Round of 16 (i.e. fourth round).

1. Lleyton Hewitt (first round)
2. Gustavo Kuerten (first round)
3. Andre Agassi (withdrew just before tournament began)
4. Yevgeny Kafelnikov (second round)
5. Sebastien Grosjean (second round)
6. Tim Henman (fourth round)
7. Tommy Haas (semi finals)
8. Pete Sampras (fourth round)
9. Marat Safin (final)
10. Goran Ivanisevic (second round)
11. Roger Federer (fourth round)
12. Guillermo Canas (third round)
13. Andy Roddick (second round)
14. Alex Corretja (first round)
15. Arnaud Clement (second round)
16. Thomas Johansson (champion)
17. Carlos Moya (second round)
18. Albert Portas (second round)
19. Jan-Michael Gambill (first round)
20. Fabrice Santoro (first round)
21. Younes El Aynaoui (third round)
22. Hicham Arazi (second round)
23. Nicolas Lapentti (fourth round)
24. Thomas Enqvist (second round)
25. Andrei Pavel (third round)
26. Jiri Novak (semi finals)
27. Sjeng Schalken (first round)
28. Greg Rusedski (third round)
29. Xavier Malisse (second round)
30. Nicolas Escude (third round)
31. Andreas Vinciguerra (second round)
32. Tommy Robredo (second round)

This year's RG women's draw also has just 12 of the 32 seeds reaching the R of 32.