US Open 2021 Top 4 Draws

TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic-
R128: Qualifier
R64: Struff​
R32: Nishikori/Goffin​
R16: Karatsev/De Minaur​
QF: Hurkacz/Berrettini​
SF: Zverev​
F: Medvedev​

Zverev-
R128: Querrey
R64: Ramos-Vinolas​
R32: Bublik​
R16: Sinner​
QF: PCB/Shapovalov​
SF: Djokovic​
F: Medvedev​

Tsitsipas-
R128: Murray
R64: Herbert/Mannarino​
R32: Norrie/Alcaraz​
R16: Humbert​
QF: FAA/RBA/Kyrgios/Rublev​
SF: Medvedev​
F: Djokovic​

Medvedev-
R128: Gasquet
R64: Koepfer​
R32: Cilic​
R16: Dimitrov/Evans​
QF: Isner/Schwartzman/Ruud​
SF: Tsitsipas/Rublev​
F: Djokovic​
​
PLUS
Rublev-
R128: Qualifier
R64: Martinez/Duckworth​
R32: Krajinovic​
R16: RBA/Kyrgios/FAA​
QF: Tsitsipas​
SF: Medvedev​
F: Djokovic​
 
Happy with Med's draw, I think he makes the final with no problems. Zed could lose to Sinner or Shapo if they're on a good day.

Djokovic got ****ed lol

Qualifier > Struff > Nishikori > Karatsev > Berrettini/Hurkacz > Zverev > Medvedev

Except for first round, that's the toughest path he could get o_O
 
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Djokovic: 6.5/10 - 2nd week not easy at all, but it was never going to be. Tsitsipas a weaker SF than Zverev, Berrettini probably the hardest of the 5-8 seeds. Karatsev and Struff not pushovers either. However, R1 quali gives him plenty of time to warm up before Struff and Nishi/Goffin/ADM will not be huge challenges. 1st week should be more or less uneventful (no super dangerous floaters), 2nd week harder than average.
Zverev: 5/10 - No challenges until R16, and Sinner hasn't done enough to warrant being afraid. Shapovalov could be dangerous in the QF, and Zverev got the hardest semi.
Tsitsipas: 8.5/10 - QF-title is very difficult. Perhaps the QF opponent could be a little tired and make it easier. Still, not great. Before the QF you also have Norrie, Alcaraz, and Humbert who can all be dangerous. Let alone the fact that 3-time slam champ Murray is in R1 (not to say he's a huge threat, but probably better than the majority of other R1s).
Medvedev: 1/10 - No problems until the QF, if even then. Hardest would be Isner, but I doubt he could do it. SF is the easiest it could be (Tsitsipas/Rublev battle each other in the QF, maybe to exhaustion). Only problem is the final against Djokovic/Zverev (where the winner being exhausted isn't impossible either). Easiest I could think of.
Rublev: 9.5/10 - About as hard as you can think of from R16 to the title, and Krajinovic isn't easy to beat either. R1&2 not too bad though.


Most difficult draw: RBA. Rublev's draw, but with a harder R1-R3.

R128: Kyrgios
R64: Ruusuvuori
R32: FAA
R16: Rublev
QF: Tsitsipas
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic
 
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Tennis_Freak99 said:
Med's got the best/easiest draw. Literal sleepwalking to the finals
Click to expand...
Yeah, can't complain. Cilic and Dimitrov are guys who could potentially play a great match and give him trouble, but hard to see them actually winning, and then he's got the easiest QF of the bunch.

I'm sure one could hand-pick a tougher draw for Novak, but you could also hand-pick a much easier one. Outside Med's path, the draw seems pretty evenly distributed.
 
My thoughts:

Djokovic-
R128: Qualifier - standard stuff
R64: Struff - same here
R32: Nishikori/Goffin - these potential matches look interesting on paper, but both players have been AWOL since last year
R16: Karatsev/De Minaur - I don't expect Karatsev to make it this far but if he does, it could be interesting
QF: Hurkacz/Berrettini - Berrettini didn't look good at Cincinnati, I don't see a good run in him this year; not sure on HH
SF: Zverev - probably the single toughest opponent Djokovic can face in the draw; the question is whether Z will make it this far
F: Medvedev - if this final happens, Med better actually show up this time

Final thoughts: Novak really shouldn't lose this since it's not really a tough draw by any means, but if he actually does, I think it'll be Zverev who beats him.

Zverev-
R128: Querrey - somewhat interesting matchup; Querrey could take a set... or two...
R64: Ramos-Vinolas - standard
R32: Bublik - also standard, could push Z a bit
R16: Sinner - could be a tough opponent if Sinner makes it this far (and in the form Sinner has been in the past few months, I wouldn't place any bets)
QF: PCB/Shapovalov - both guys have the potential to knock Zverev out (one came real close last year)
SF: Djokovic - welp
F: Medvedev - would pick Zverev to win if this is the final

Final thoughts: Zed has the toughest draw of the top 4 seeds, I think. There are a few matches where he'd be in danger of having one of those classic Zverev upsets happen to him, but in the form he's been in for the past month, he should make semis.

Tsitsipas-
R128: Murray - fun little first round, but Tsitsipas should have no trouble getting through here
R64: Herbert/Mannarino - meh
R32: Norrie/Alcaraz - meh
R16: Humbert - meh
QF: FAA/RBA/Kyrgios/Rublev - I think Rublev will make the QF out of this group. If he does, Tsitsipas should win in a manner similar to Rublev's previous Slam QFs; I don't think RBA or Kyrgios stand much of a chance at reaching the QF; FAA... maybe...
SF: Medvedev - I think Medvedev wins this round if it's between these two
F: Djokovic - rip

Final thoughts: I don't really have many thoughts on this draw

Medvedev-
R128: Gasquet - shouldn't lose
R64: Koepfer - standard second round
R32: Cilic - could lose a set if Cilic catches that rare spark of fire (which did happen when Nadal and Thiem took him down in 2019 and 2020, respectively)
R16: Dimitrov/Evans - don't trust these guys to do much damage
QF: Isner/Schwartzman/Ruud - lol
SF: Tsitsipas/Rublev - already gone over Tsitsipas; as for Rublev, I think it'll be a different story at a Slam as opposed to a Masters
F: Djokovic - rip in peace

Final thoughts: Med's got the easiest draw of the top 4 by a fair margin. I mean... look at that potential QF lol. He should be favored to reach the final from the bottom half

Rublev-
R128: Qualifier - meh
R64: Martinez/Duckworth - meh
R32: Krajinovic - should be another "meh" but it's Rublev; don't rule out an upset
R16: RBA/Kyrgios/FAA - I would favor Rublev against any of these guys, but again, don't rule out an upset
QF: Tsitsipas - this is where Rublev's tournament should cap
SF: Medvedev - already covered
F: Djokovic - big lol if he makes it here

Final thoughts: again, not really much to say. I'm predicting another one of those straight-set QF exits (as is his routine whenever he gets that far in a Slam)
 
Kralingen said:
It is kind of rich to see the likes of Berrettini QF and Medvedev F regarded as a tough US Open draw compared to the reaction in 2019, lmao.
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And I'm sure that if Federer was playing like he was in 2019, if Nadal had won AO and Wimby, and Medvedev and Berrettini had never made it past a slam R4 (and Berrettini who also never made it past a M1000 R3) the reaction would be different this year.

Two years have passed. Things have changed. Federer was a strong opponent then (slam contender), and now anyone suggesting he could damage Novak if he were in his draw would be laughed at.
 
Djokovic's draw is not that difficult, seriously. Anyone saying he got screwed isn't unbiased. Struff = pigeon. Nishikori = pigeon. Goffin doen't win a match since MC. De Minaur totally out of form. Karatsev I guarantee he won't even make the 4th round, Djokovic will probably face Thompson or Brooksby in 4th round.
Berrettini was the 2nd easiest QF after Ruud. Djokovic handled it comfortably on grass and Berrettini is very far from his Wimbledon level. He barely beat Ramos in Cincinnati and lost in straight against FAA. Not even sure he's fully recovered from his injury. He will be taken out before the QF. Rublev, PCB or even Shapopalov would've been more dangerous. The only threat I see is Hurkacz, and we all know how inconcistent he is. There is about 60% of chance he loses before the QF. I won't be shocked if he ends up facing Sonego or Fognini in QF.
He really avoided all the dangerous non seeds in the first rounds. Guys like Kyrgios, Murray, Korda, Opelka, Anderson,Basilashvili, Alcaraz, Tiafoe, Musetti or Harris are all far from him in the draw.
The only bad news for him in Zverev in SF. He would have prefered Tsitsipas for sure. Good news is, it will look a lot like RG. If he beats Zverev in Semi, he will be huge favorite in final.

Medvedev has the easiest draw but having catewalks can also be dangerous. If he makes the final without facing any adversity, the last match will be BRUTAL for him. He is already 0-2 in slam finals and he wouldn't be favorite whether it's against Djokovic or Zverev.

Tsitsipas has the toughest draw. Rublev was the biggest QF and he got it. Murray was one of trickiest 1st round for anyone in the draw and he got him. Also Humbert in 4th round, who lead the H2H against him.
 
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WhiskeyEE said:
Maybe because neither Med nor Berrettini had made it past the 4R of a slam prior to that tournament. Don't be a dunce.
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TripleATeam said:
And I'm sure that if Federer was playing like he was in 2019, if Nadal had won AO and Wimby, and Medvedev and Berrettini had never made it past a slam R4 (and Berrettini who also never made it past a M1000 R3) the reaction would be different this year.

Two years have passed. Things have changed. Federer was a strong opponent then (slam contender), and now anyone suggesting he could damage Novak if he were in his draw would be laughed at.
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At the time, sure - although Medvedev was scorching in the 2019 NA HC tour.

My point is less about the relative strength of them in 2019 and more about how the so-called 'weak era mugs' have grown into respectable and quality tennis players. It seems the first impulse of everyone is to fling sh-t at every young player until they win a Slam.
 
Tennisfan339 said:
Djokovic's draw is not that difficult, seriously. Anyone saying he got screwed isn't unbiased. Struff = pigeon. Nishikori = pigeon. Goffin doen't win a match since MC. De Minaur totally out of form. Karatsev I guarantee he won't even make the 4th round, Djokovic will probably face Thompson or Brooksby in 4th round.
Berrettini was the 2nd easiest QF after Ruud. Djokovic handled it comfortably on grass and Berrettini is very far from his Wimbledon level. He barely beat Ramos in Cincinnati and lost in straight against FAA. Not even sure he's fully recovered from his injury. He will be taken out before the QF. Rublev, PCB or even Shapopalov would've been more dangerous. The only threat I see is Hurkacz, and we all know how inconcistent he is. There is about 60% of chance he loses before the QF. I won't be shocked if he ends up facing Sonego or Fognini in QF.
The only bad news for him in Zverev in SF. He would have prefered Tsitsipas for sure. Good news is, it will look a lot like RG. If he beats Zverev in Semi, he will be huge favorite in final.

Medvedev has the easiest draw but having catewalks can also be dangerous. If he makes the final without facing any adversity, the last match will be BRUTAL for him. He is already 0-2 in slam finals and he wouldn't be favorite whether it's against Djokovic or Zverev.

Tsitsipas has the toughest draw. Rublev was the biggest QF and he got it. Murray was one of trickiest 1st round for anyone in the draw and he got him. Also Humbert in 4th round, who lead the H2H against him.
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I can definitely see that, Struff is just more dangerous than most other unseeded opponents because he doesn't seem to get strung up mentally. Obviously Novak dominates the matchup, but Struff is dangerous against seeded opponents because he isn't intimidated. A bad day for Novak and a great one for Struff could be difficult. That said, I don't think it's particularly likely. I think the same for his R32-R16 opponents. They either have absolutely no chance (Goffin) or aren't likely to make it that far (Karatsev) and even if they do, it is very unlikely they produce the level they need to get past Djokovic.

However, Hurkacz could be quite dangerous and Berrettini may not be where he wants to be, but he is a slam finalist and has the ability to push Djokovic as long as he ramps up - and his draw is conducive to playing into form. PCB or RBA I agree would've been more dangerous, though. Zverev is the toughest challenge, then doing Medvedev back to back (a very fresh Medvedev) could be difficult. Obviously Medvedev may not be ready to face an opponent like Djokovic after his cakewalk, but it's just as likely that he ends up fresh as a daisy and runs Novak off the court.

Clearly Djokovic didn't get screwed, his draw is middle-of-the-road, and can easily fall apart. But it's no cakewalk like Medvedev's or Novak's draw last year.
 
Kralingen said:
At the time, sure - although Medvedev was scorching in the 2019 NA HC tour.

My point is less about the relative strength of them in 2019 and more about how the so-called 'weak era mugs' have grown into respectable and quality tennis players. It seems the first impulse of everyone is to fling sh-t at every young player until they win a Slam.
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True, and Medvedev wasn't weak in my eyes. Just not as strong as Federer or Djokovic purely because it would've been his first slam final. I value mental greatly and I think a first-time slam finalist going up against a GOAT contender is a recipe for a win for the more experienced player.

I do agree though, this board isn't giving the new guys enough credit. Yes, they aren't of the level that the Big 4 hit in their primes, but very few players are.
 
UnforcedTerror said:
Happy with Med's draw, I think he makes the final with no problems. Zed could lose to Sinner or Shapo if they're on a good day.

Djokovic got ****ed lol

Qualifier > Struff > Nishikori > Karatsev > Berrettini/Hurkacz > Zverev > Medvedev

Except for first round, that's the toughed path he could get o_O
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STRUFF is not a hard opponent. Djokovic has beaten him 6 times with the loss of one set. Why do people keep pumping him up?!
 
Hamnavoe said:
Imagine if Nishikori of all people was the man to end Djokovic's Grand Slam dreams. It's written in the stars, folks.
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Since 2010 at the US Open: Lost twice to Nadal (both in the final), and lost twice to Wawrinka (one in the final). Losing twice to Nishikori (neither in the final) definitely seems to be written in the stars. ;)
 
Big guys like Struff are generally seen as upset threats because of their frame. Whether he is or not, Struff has the look of a guy who could catch fire, go on a serving rampage and cause a shock.

There are plenty of guys you'd rather see than Struff in a first or second round, but not in a sense that he's a serious threat but in the sense that on a good day for him/bad day for Djok he could steal a set and stretch the match longer than it needs to be, which could affect the later rounds.
 
Hamnavoe said:
Big guys like Struff are generally seen as upset threats because of their frame. Whether he is or not, Struff has the look of a guy who could catch fire, go on a serving rampage and cause a shock.

There are plenty of guys you'd rather see than Struff in a first or second round, but not in a sense that he's a serious threat but in the sense that on a good day for him/bad day for Djok he could steal a set and stretch the match longer than it needs to be, which could affect the later rounds.
Click to expand...
Djoker doesnt want to see players that make him work. Struff is not one of those.
 
Hamnavoe said:
Big guys like Struff are generally seen as upset threats because of their frame. Whether he is or not, Struff has the look of a guy who could catch fire, go on a serving rampage and cause a shock.

There are plenty of guys you'd rather see than Struff in a first or second round, but not in a sense that he's a serious threat but in the sense that on a good day for him/bad day for Djok he could steal a set and stretch the match longer than it needs to be, which could affect the later rounds.
Click to expand...

He has stolen exactly 1 set so far....don't see that changing. I think you are right that he is "seen" as a threat because of his frame. But that's because people don't wear their glasses.
 
Medvedev got good karma for the camera incident, but it's not like he can't make his life harder and get to the finals with more wear than was necessary.

Zverev, we'll see in his first match already, I think. If he is unaffected, then semis are good to go. A shaky start probably won't get better.
 
UnforcedTerror said:
If we go by that then there is no hard opponent for Djokovic in R2 but the point is, Struff is a tricky R2 opponent. No top player would like to face him in early rounds.
Click to expand...

Hard 2nd round opponents (from players in the draw, with no seeding):

1. Musetti
2. Nishikori
3. Murray
4. Brooksby
5. Fuscovics

There are 5 off the top of my head.
 
TripleATeam said:
Djokovic-
R128: Qualifier​
R64: Struff​
R32: Nishikori/Goffin​
R16: Karatsev/De Minaur​
QF: Hurkacz/Berrettini​
SF: Zverev​
F: Medvedev​

Zverev-
R128: Querrey​
R64: Ramos-Vinolas​
R32: Bublik​
R16: Sinner​
QF: PCB/Shapovalov​
SF: Djokovic​
F: Medvedev​

Tsitsipas-
R128: Murray​
R64: Herbert/Mannarino​
R32: Norrie/Alcaraz​
R16: Humbert​
QF: FAA/RBA/Kyrgios/Rublev​
SF: Medvedev​
F: Djokovic​

Medvedev-
R128: Gasquet​
R64: Koepfer​
R32: Cilic​
R16: Dimitrov/Evans​
QF: Isner/Schwartzman/Ruud​
SF: Tsitsipas/Rublev​
F: Djokovic​
​
PLUS
Rublev-
R128: Qualifier​
R64: Martinez/Duckworth​
R32: Krajinovic​
R16: RBA/Kyrgios/FAA​
QF: Tsitsipas​
SF: Medvedev​
F: Djokovic​
Click to expand...
Med and djoker have cakewalk draws
 
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