US Open draw is out!

Hitman

G.O.A.T.
A different way to look at it though is that Djokovic is very, very likely to play one of them in the semis.

Medvedev has the easiest quarter.
While that is true....it's a slam semi final, I would expect some resistence and in form player at that stage. Those are the big matches of these events.
 

Sephiroth

Hall of Fame
I wish I joined this forum earlier to discuss Big 3 draws and got involved in the trolling at the height of their powers cause it just feels lame at this point lol it doesn't matter who ends up where on the draw vs Djokovic
 

Pandaman

Rookie
Novak has the toughest path to the Final based on seed, skill, and former achievement of players. At least Goffin and Nishikori don't seem to have the health or stamina for best of 5 right now, and Karat looks burnt out. If this was fair, Casper, the lowest seed in the top 8, would've been in his section, but of course the randomization happened to follow seeding for SFs and not QFs. I'm over these dumb ****ing draw methodologies.

Medvedev is going to sleepwalk to the semis.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
Current Zverev isn’t losing to sinner or PCB/shaps in my opinion. Zverev will make the semis at the very least.
Bro - there is a STRONG recency bias. Don't let the last 2 tournaments from Zed fool you into thinking that he changed.
Remember Wimb - when he lost to FAA - in a match he should have won. Same in F.O.
Zed has done well in the past in smaller tournaments, only to flame out at slam level. His game goes under pressure.

Zverev does NOTHING at slam level. Let's have a friendly bet. He won't make the Semis. He will find a way to lose before getting to Novak.
In the other half, I see Titspas vs Med in the SF. Both are more consistent.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
No one will stop the expected SF from happening, I predict.

Djokovic: Struff and Nishikori are 2 of his favorite pigeons. Goffin and De Minaur are easy for him. Karatsev isn't the player he was earlier this year, I doubt he'll even make the 4th round. Berrettini comes back from injury and looked awful in Cincinnati. Only potential threat is the inconsistent Hurkacz, IF he makes the QF.

Medvedev has the easiest draw by far. Evans, Dimitrov, Schwartzman, Ruud. He should handle them all easily. At this point Cilic is probably the most dangerous one for him. Cilic won a set against Nadal in 2019 and Thiem last year, he's always dangerous in NY.

Current Zverev shouldn't be bothered by Sinner, Shapopalov or PCB. Shapopalov hasn't won a match since Wimbledon, I'll be shocked if he makes the QF. PCB lost against the poorest version of Zverev last year in SF, how is he gonna win this one? Sinner in R4 is the biggest threat. Lost to him in RG last year and their Köln match was very close.

Tsitsipas has the toughest QF with Rublev, potentially Humbert in R4 and a tricky 1st round, but he should make it too.
Zverev has the toughest draw along with Titspas. I except Titsp to still make it to the SF (at least)- he will like the slower courts for his ROS.
Zedzilla will stumble before the SF I'm sure.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Zverev has the toughest draw along with Titspas. I except Titsp to still make it to the SF (at least)- he will like the slower courts for his ROS.
Zedzilla will stumble before the SF I'm sure.
No. Unless one of those guys quickly, only Sinner has a real chance.
 

Pandaman

Rookie
Bro - there is a STRONG recency bias. Don't let the last 2 tournaments from Zed fool you into thinking that he changed.
Remember Wimb - when he lost to FAA - in a match he should have won. Same in F.O.
Zed has done well in the past in smaller tournaments, only to flame out at slam level. His game goes under pressure.

Zverev does NOTHING at slam level. Let's have a friendly bet. He won't make the Semis. He will find a way to lose before getting to Novak.
In the other half, I see Titspas vs Med in the SF. Both are more consistent.
I agree and I hope you're right, but the flip side is a player needs just one tournament to spearhead a run (e.g. Novak and Davis Cup 2010). That's what me and @Djokovic_is_the_best#1 are worried about. And then from Novak's perspective, we haven't seen him play in a month, and the last time we did, he lost 10/11 games after being up a break in the 2nd. I'll probably be on edge until he [hopefully] looks like himself with no injuries.
 
I agree and I hope you're right, but the flip side is a player needs just one tournament to spearhead a run (e.g. Novak and Davis Cup 2010). That's what me and @Djokovic_is_the_best#1 are worried about. And then from Novak's perspective, we haven't seen him play in a month, and the last time we did, he lost 10/11 games after being up a break in the 2nd. I'll probably be on edge until he [hopefully] looks like himself with no injuries.
Yeah it’s all unknown to see what shape or form Novak will be in. We won’t know till we see in the opening round. Zverev is no doubt the man in form so right now is Novak’s greatest threat. I hoped he would be on the other side but it is what it is.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
Yeah it’s all unknown to see what shape or form Novak will be in. We won’t know till we see in the opening round. Zverev is no doubt the man in form so right now is Novak’s greatest threat. I hoped he would be on the other side but it is what it is.
I still don't agree that Zverev is the man in form and Novak's greatest threat. He just doesn't have the consistency. This is a strong recency bias. People forgot about how Zverev did at AO, F.O and Wimbledon and how he does in slams every year.
Instead everything is based on his Olympics and Cincy performance - where he was shaky as well especially in the latter. vs Titspas in Cincy - Zed could hardly hold a lead and choked repeatedly.

Again, Novak's biggest challenge among the current ATP will always be Medvedev. True Novak is favored against Med heavily, because the Russian lacks weapons. But the world #2 is by far the most consistent and deserving player in the draw right now to face Novak for the championship.

Overall, there is no one at Novak's level in the draw, assuming Novak is NOT injured. If Thiem were playing, I would have NOT said that. Since peak Thiem can give Novak some headache, as can peak Nadal. But both those guys are not playing.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
I still don't agree that Zverev is the man in form and Novak's greatest threat. He just doesn't have the consistency. This is a strong recency bias. People forgot about how Zverev did at AO, F.O and Wimbledon and how he does in slams every year.
Instead everything is based on his Olympics and Cincy performance - where he was shaky as well especially in the latter. vs Titspas in Cincy - Zed could hardly hold a lead and choked repeatedly.

Again, Novak's biggest challenge among the current ATP will always be Medvedev. True Novak is favored against Med heavily, because the Russian lacks weapons. But the world #2 is by far the most consistent and deserving player in the draw right now to face Novak for the championship.

Overall, there is no one at Novak's level in the draw, assuming Novak is NOT injured. If Thiem were playing, I would have NOT said that. Since peak Thiem can give Novak some headache, as can peak Nadal. But both those guys are not playing.
Yes, but confidence is essential for a player like Zverev who is prone to the yips. He has a lot of it right now, and it's quite possible it will carry over to the Slams, also. Think about where his head has been for most of this year.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
Yes, but confidence is essential for a player like Zverev who is prone to the yips. He has a lot of it right now, and it's quite possible it will carry over to the Slams, also. Think about where his head has been for most of this year.
We say that for Zverev every time he wins Masters or YEC/WTF.
Fact is - there is recency bias.
How can we portray Zverev as Novak's BIGGEST THREAT when he hasn't done anything at slam level this year?
He's just won OG/CIncy - This kind of stuff he's done earlier - win BO3 matches. He hasn't shown the ability to play his best "CONSISTENTLY" in 7 best of 5 matches.
 

Raul_SJ

G.O.A.T.
We say that for Zverev every time he wins Masters or YEC/WTF.
Fact is - there is recency bias.
How can we portray Zverev as Novak's BIGGEST THREAT when he hasn't done anything at slam level this year?
He's just won OG/CIncy - This kind of stuff he's done earlier - win BO3 matches. He hasn't shown the ability to play his best "CONSISTENTLY" in 7 best of 5 matches.
Zed is something like 0-9 against Top 10. Will have to beat PCB and Shapo to get to SF. Probably will end that horrible losing streak but not a guarantee. He must still prove himself in 5 sets. Cincy is not a Slam. Tokyo is not a Slam. Sorry!
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
Zed is something like 0-9 against Top 10. Will have to beat PCB and Shapo to get to SF. Probably will end that horrible losing streak but not a guarantee. He must still prove himself in 5 sets. Cincy is not a Slam. Tokyo is not a Slam. Sorry!
Excellent post. Agree 100%.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
We say that for Zverev every time he wins Masters or YEC/WTF.
Fact is - there is recency bias.
How can we portray Zverev as Novak's BIGGEST THREAT when he hasn't done anything at slam level this year?
He's just won OG/CIncy - This kind of stuff he's done earlier - win BO3 matches. He hasn't shown the ability to play his best "CONSISTENTLY" in 7 best of 5 matches.
He's reached 2 semis and a Final since the start of 2020. Yes, his record against top 10 players is awful at Slams but it's not as if he's losing to nobodies anymore.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Zed is something like 0-9 against Top 10. Will have to beat PCB and Shapo to get to SF. Probably will end that horrible losing streak but not a guarantee. He must still prove himself in 5 sets. Cincy is not a Slam. Tokyo is not a Slam. Sorry!
Shapovalov has a losing record to Zverev, as does PCB. PCB at least took him to 5-sets when they played at the USO last year, but Shapovalov has done less than nothing at the Slams.
 
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