If you look at winners of all the slams starting in 1985, the US Open is clearly the one that only great players can win...if you win the US Open, you will be #1 at some point in your career. None of the other slams can say that. Lets look: Australian champs since 1985: Edberg, Edberg, Wilander, Lendl, Lendl, Becker, Courier, Courier, Sampras, Agassi, Becker, Sampras, Korda, Kafelnikov, Agassi, Agassi, T. Johansson, Agassi, Federer, Safin, Federer, Federer, Djokovic, Nadal Of these 24, 21 (87.5%) became #1 (only Korda, Johansson and Djokovic didn't -- there was no Aus Open in 86) French champs since 1985: Wilander, Lendl, Lendl, Wilander, Chang, Gomez, Courier, Courier, Bruguera, Bruguera, Muster, Kafelnikov, Kuerten, Moya, Agassi, Kuerten, Kuerten, A. Costa, Fererro, Gaudio, Nadal, Nadal, Nadal, Nadal, Federer Of these 25, 19 (76%) became #1 (Chang, Gomez, Bruguera, Costa, Gaudio didn't) Wimbledon champs since 1985: Becker, Becker, Cash, Edberg, Becker, Edberg, Stich, Agassi, Sampras, Sampras, Sampras, Krajicek, Sampras, Sampras, Sampras, Sampras, Ivanisevic, Hewitt, Federer, Federer, Federer, Federer, Federer, Nadal, Federer Of these 25, 21 (84%) became #1 (only Cash, Stich, Krajicek and Ivanisevic never did) US Open since 1985: Lendl, Lendl, Lendl, Wilander, Becker, Sampras, Edberg, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Sampras, Sampras, Rafter, Rafter, Agassi, Safin, Hewitt, Sampras, Roddick, Federer, Federer, Federer, Federer, Federer All of these 25 became #1 in their careers Moral: There are really only a few people who can win the US Open this year (Federer, Nadal, Roddick, and then people who maybe could become #1 in the future -- i.e. Murray, Djokovic -- and of course Safin if he's playing well -- which he won't). If you don't think someone can be #1 in the world, don't pick them to win. Would be interested to hear other thoughts; hater-free, please.