USO’22 QF: #3 C Alcaraz (ESP) vs #11 J Sinner (ITA)

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner?

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stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Who wins this third h2h matchup of the summer of two of the brightest stars of the future? Both played long 5-set matches on Labor Day evening.

Sinner leads the overall h2h at ATP level 2-1 after winning at Wimbledon (4R) and at Umag (final). Alcaraz won their R32 matchup last autumn in Paris-Bercy.

A win by Sinner would deny the possibility for Alcaraz to become the youngest ever world #1, which he would reach if he wins USO or reaches the final opposite anyone but Casper Ruud.
 
Did you have this post on the ready??

Well, of course you did lol ...
stringertom said:
Who wins this third h2h matchup of the summer of two of the brightest stars of the future? Both played long 5-set matches on Labor Day evening.

Sinner leads the overall h2h at ATP level 2-1 after winning at Wimbledon (4R) and at Umag (final). Alcaraz won their R32 matchup last autumn in Paris-Bercy.

A win by Sinner would deny the possibility for Alcaraz to become the youngest ever world #1, which he would reach if he wins USO or reaches the final opposite anyone but Casper Ruud.
Click to expand...
 
stringertom said:
Who wins this third h2h matchup of the summer of two of the brightest stars of the future? Both played long 5-set matches on Labor Day evening.

Sinner leads the overall h2h at ATP level 2-1 after winning at Wimbledon (4R) and at Umag (final). Alcaraz won their R32 matchup last autumn in Paris-Bercy.

A win by Sinner would deny the possibility for Alcaraz to become the youngest ever world #1, which he would reach if he wins USO or reaches the final opposite anyone but Casper Ruud.
Click to expand...
I think for this reason, the added pressure of becoming number one makes me want to vote for Sinner. Sinner will unleash his best when it matters most. Going with Sinner in 4 sets
 
If Sinner wants a victory he must smooth out his bad patches so evident tonight. He was sublime to open the match and pure electric to close from 1-3 down in the fifth set. In between, he brought a level, if duplicated, that will see him exit in straight sets vs Alcaraz.

Never a boring day in The Sin Bin. They both liked 5 today; why not another one in 5? Sin to win.
 
I was just looking at the draw. Kyrgios vs Khachanov, Berrettini vs Ruud, Sinner vs Alcaraz, and Tiafoe vs Rublev. One of these guys is going to win their first Slam.

Honestly, I don't think I'd be disappointed if any of them won. And I don't think I could definitively say who is going to win each of those quarterfinals. Kyrgios probably has the best odds, but it's not big. He's got a 1-1 H2H against Karen and their last match was a brutal contest that Nick won 10-8 in a fifth set breaker at the 2020 Australian Open. Ruud has a 3-2 H2H over Berrettini, but most of the matches have been on clay. Tiafoe and Rublev are 1-1 H2H, with Tiafoe beating Rublev 6-1 in the fifth at the US Open last year. That brings us to...

Sinner and Alcaraz are 2-2 H2H if you count the match they played in the Challengers. Alcaraz won the first two and Sinner won the last two. They were practicing together just a few weeks ago in Canada after traveling from the Umag tournament (where Sinner had won 6-7, 6-1, 6-1).

After his match tonight, Alcaraz was asked if he knew who he was playing next, and you could tell he was aware the match with Sinner will be a challenge.

Right now, the US Open men's title is as wide open as it's been in the last 20 years in my opinion. Tiafoe was wearing a wrist band that said "why not me?" and that seems totally appropriate.

It's late right now, so it's hard for me to pick. My heart says Sinner in 5, but my mind says Alcaraz in 4 based on their form so far in this tournament and Sinner's atrocious serving tonight. I voted with my heart in the poll.
 
Jack the Hack said:
I was just looking at the draw. Kyrgios vs Khachanov, Berrettini vs Ruud, Sinner vs Alcaraz, and Tiafoe vs Rublev. One of these guys is going to win their first Slam.

Honestly, I don't think I'd be disappointed if any of them won. And I don't think I could definitively say who is going to win each of those quarterfinals. Kyrgios probably has the best odds, but it's not big. He's got a 1-1 H2H against Karen and their last match was a brutal contest that Nick won 10-8 in a fifth set breaker at the 2020 Australian Open. Ruud has a 3-2 H2H over Berrettini, but most of the matches have been on clay. Tiafoe and Rublev are 1-1 H2H, with Tiafoe beating Rublev 6-1 in the fifth at the US Open last year. That brings us to...

Sinner and Alcaraz are 2-2 H2H if you count the match they played in the Challengers. Alcaraz won the first two and Sinner won the last two. They were practicing together just a few weeks ago in Canada after traveling from the Umag tournament (where Sinner had won 6-7, 6-1, 6-1).

After his match tonight, Alcaraz was asked if he knew who he was playing next, and you could tell he was aware the match with Sinner will be a challenge.

Right now, the US Open men's title is as wide open as it's been in the last 20 years in my opinion. Tiafoe was wearing a wrist band that said "why not me?" and that it totally true.

It's late right now, so it's hard for me to pick. My heart says Sinner in 5, but my mind says Alcaraz in 4 based on their form so far in this tournament and Sinner's atrocious serving tonight.
Click to expand...
You do realize the humid conditions affected him today right? Alot can change in 2 days. I believe if he serves like he did in the Nakashima match he can defeat Alcaraz in 4 sets. All depends on the conditions and if they decide to close the roof
 
dking68 said:
You do realize the humid conditions affected him today right? Alot can change in 2 days. I believe if he serves like he did in the Nakashima match he can defeat Alcaraz in 4 sets. All depends on the conditions and if they decide to close the roof
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Roof closure is a definite tomorrow for the first two QFs. Wednesday will be a 60% chance of rain, winds at 15mph and quite a bit cooler (high 71 F). I would expect this match will be played in the evening session. If so, conditions will be quite a contrast to muggy Monday.
 
dking68 said:
You do realize the humid conditions affected him today right? Alot can change in 2 days. I believe if he serves like he did in the Nakashima match he can defeat Alcaraz in 4 sets. All depends on the conditions and if they decide to close the roof
Click to expand...

Yes, I am aware that it's humid in New York. I am also aware that heavy humid conditions can effect tennis performance. However, I'm not sure it can totally explain Sinner's ragged serving performance tonight.

Most of his double faults tonight were from hitting his second serve long. Heavier conditions usually help you control spin better, but that wasn't happening. I believe that long serves can come from errant tosses where the ball is getting too far out in front, so you aren't able to get under the ball enough to impart topspin properly. Alternatively, one of the commentators mentioned they felt his backswing on the serve was a bit out of synch tonight, which was effecting his rhythm and feel. Whatever the case, it was a bad serving performance compared to his earlier rounds:

1st round: 16 aces, 5 double faults, 57% first serve percentage. Broken 3 times over 5 sets.

2nd round: 12 aces, 4 double faults, 55% first serve percentage. Broken once in 3 sets.

3rd round: 16 aces, 4 double faults, 60% first serve percentage. Broken twice in 4 sets.

4th round: 5 aces, 14 double faults, 46% first serve percentage. Broken 8 times in 5 sets. (YiKES!)

Clearly, he needs to figure out what happened tonight and serve more like he did the first three rounds when he plays Alcaraz. He can't expect to give so many free points and games away against that caliber of player. Lucky for him tonight, Ivashka's serve wasn't giving him too many problems and he was able to break him 12 times.
 
stringertom said:
Who wins this third h2h matchup of the summer of two of the brightest stars of the future? Both played long 5-set matches on Labor Day evening.

Sinner leads the overall h2h at ATP level 2-1 after winning at Wimbledon (4R) and at Umag (final). Alcaraz won their R32 matchup last autumn in Paris-Bercy.

A win by Sinner would deny the possibility for Alcaraz to become the youngest ever world #1, which he would reach if he wins USO or reaches the final opposite anyone but Casper Ruud.
Click to expand...
Very interesting match and hard to predict. I will go with Sinner in 4 based on his success in their recent match ups and his ability to play the crucial points better.
 
Jack the Hack said:
I was just looking at the draw. Kyrgios vs Khachanov, Berrettini vs Ruud, Sinner vs Alcaraz, and Tiafoe vs Rublev. One of these guys is going to win their first Slam.

Honestly, I don't think I'd be disappointed if any of them won. And I don't think I could definitively say who is going to win each of those quarterfinals. Kyrgios probably has the best odds, but it's not big. He's got a 1-1 H2H against Karen and their last match was a brutal contest that Nick won 10-8 in a fifth set breaker at the 2020 Australian Open. Ruud has a 3-2 H2H over Berrettini, but most of the matches have been on clay. Tiafoe and Rublev are 1-1 H2H, with Tiafoe beating Rublev 6-1 in the fifth at the US Open last year. That brings us to...

Sinner and Alcaraz are 2-2 H2H if you count the match they played in the Challengers. Alcaraz won the first two and Sinner won the last two. They were practicing together just a few weeks ago in Canada after traveling from the Umag tournament (where Sinner had won 6-7, 6-1, 6-1).

After his match tonight, Alcaraz was asked if he knew who he was playing next, and you could tell he was aware the match with Sinner will be a challenge.

Right now, the US Open men's title is as wide open as it's been in the last 20 years in my opinion. Tiafoe was wearing a wrist band that said "why not me?" and that seems totally appropriate.

It's late right now, so it's hard for me to pick. My heart says Sinner in 5, but my mind says Alcaraz in 4 based on their form so far in this tournament and Sinner's atrocious serving tonight. I voted with my heart in the poll.
Click to expand...
I would be very disappointed if Ruud wins this. The others are pretty decent.
 
Sinner's first serve figure has been fluctuating this USO:
1R: 68%, 2R: 59%, 3R: 71%, 4R: 63%.
Would be natural to expect him to serve better in QF than yesterday, but nothing guarantees that.
 
dapchai said:
Sinner's first serve figure has been fluctuating this USO:
1R: 68%, 2R: 59%, 3R: 71%, 4R: 63%.
Would be natural to expect him to serve better in QF than yesterday, but nothing guarantees that.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure where you got those numbers. According to the stats on the US Open site, Sinner's first serve percentage (the rate at which he was getting his first serve in play) was:
  • 1st round: 16 aces, 5 double faults, 57% first serve percentage. Broken 3 times over 5 sets.
  • 2nd round: 12 aces, 4 double faults, 55% first serve percentage. Broken once in 3 sets.
  • 3rd round: 16 aces, 4 double faults, 60% first serve percentage. Broken twice in 4 sets.
  • 4th round: 5 aces, 14 double faults, 46% first serve percentage. Broken 8 times in 5 sets. (YiKES!)
 
I have a feeling after both players were involved in 5 setters, this match may be a bit of an anti climax at times. Still got no clue who’s gonna win though
 
Jack the Hack said:
I'm not sure where you got those numbers. According to the stats on the US Open site, Sinner's first serve percentage (the rate at which he was getting his first serve in play) was:
  • 1st round: 16 aces, 5 double faults, 57% first serve percentage. Broken 3 times over 5 sets.
  • 2nd round: 12 aces, 4 double faults, 55% first serve percentage. Broken once in 3 sets.
  • 3rd round: 16 aces, 4 double faults, 60% first serve percentage. Broken twice in 4 sets.
  • 4th round: 5 aces, 14 double faults, 46% first serve percentage. Broken 8 times in 5 sets. (YiKES!)
Click to expand...
I got those from Google, which is pretty reliable after matches (during matches not so much). Maybe the difference comes from the inclusion/exclusion of aces and double faults?
 
dapchai said:
I got those from Google, which is pretty reliable after matches (during matches not so much). Maybe the difference comes from the inclusion/exclusion of aces and double faults?
Click to expand...

Here's the link to the official IBM stats from the match last night: https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/stats/1405.html

If you click on the "Full Stats" button, you can get further details.

First serve percentage is straightforward. It's the number of first serves attempted divided by the number that went in.

I'm not sure what Google was calculating as I can't find a stat that matches up with those percentages they published. The closest might be first serve winning percentage, which is the number of points won on first serve. Sinner was at 73% in that stat last night, but it doesn't mean too much if the first serve percentage is low. In other words, if I only got 1 first serve in all match and it was an ace, my first serve winning percentage would be 100%, while my first serve percentage might be 2%. That's why winning percentage on serve is usually only meaningful for second serves. If you are winning less than 50% of your second serves, you are probably getting broken a lot. Sinner was 49% last night... while Ivashka was a miserable 33%! That means he was losing two out of every three points when he had to hit a second serve. That's why Sinner broke him 12 times.
 
Jack the Hack said:
Here's the link to the official IBM stats from the match last night: https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/stats/1405.html

If you click on the "Full Stats" button, you can get further details.

First serve percentage is straightforward. It's the number of first serves attempted divided by the number that went in.

I'm not sure what Google was calculating as I can't find a stat that matches up with those percentages they published. The closest might be first serve winning percentage, which is the number of points won on first serve. Sinner was at 73% in that stat last night, but it doesn't mean too much if the first serve percentage is low. In other words, if I only got 1 first serve in all match and it was an ace, my first serve winning percentage would be 100%, while my first serve percentage might be 2%. That's why winning percentage on serve is usually only meaningful for second serves. If you are winning less than 50% of your second serves, you are probably getting broken a lot. Sinner was 49% last night... while Ivashka was a miserable 33%! That means he was losing two out of every three points when he had to hit a second serve. That's why Sinner broke him 12 times.
Click to expand...
Well, even Google says his win percentage on first serve was at 67% last night, so there should be a clear difference in the calculation method. But we don't know.
 
dapchai said:
Well, even Google says his win percentage on first serve was at 67% last night, so there should be a clear difference in the calculation method. But we don't know.
Click to expand...

I looked it up and see what you are seeing. I wouldn't trust those Google stats because they don't even break down how they got the percentages.

In contrast, the US Open site shows Sinner attempted 134 first serves and made 62 of them, which is 46%. And of those 62 first serves that went in, he won 45 of the points, which is 73%. These calculations are basic math.

Besides, the stats provided on the US Open site are the official ones, so that is the source of truth.
 
Robert C said:
Agreed. There's an idiotic recency bias at play a lot on this forum.
Click to expand...
Please be at least logical about facts:

ATP level matches h2h is 2-1 for Sinner. A Challenger match played 3.5 years ago should not be included in the stat page. As an example, a very young Gael Monfils beat an even younger Novak Djokovic at a Futures match in 2004. The ATP data cache offers that result but lists it separately so the career tally is noted as 18-0 for ND, not 18-1.

Woukd you not side with the ATP in this evaluation of data?

As to recency bias, it’s very relevant that two matches in July weigh far more heavily than a single match last autumn. However, the one factor more relevant to assess are the score lines. Alcaraz won his match 6&5 and his two separate sets in Wimby and Umag in tiebreaks. The only bakery products originated from an Innichen oven. The h2h is not as close as a 2-1 match result indicates.
 
stringertom said:
Please be at least logical about facts:

ATP level matches h2h is 2-1 for Sinner. A Challenger match played 3.5 years ago should not be included in the stat page. As an example, a very young Gael Monfils beat an even younger Novak Djokovic at a Futures match in 2004. The ATP data cache offers that result but lists it separately so the career tally is noted as 18-0 for ND, not 18-1.

Woukd you not side with the ATP in this evaluation of data?

As to recency bias, it’s very relevant that two matches in July weigh far more heavily than a single match last autumn. However, the one factor more relevant to assess are the score lines. Alcaraz won his match 6&5 and his two separate sets in Wimby and Umag in tiebreaks. The only bakery products originated from an Innichen oven. The h2h is not as close as a 2-1 match result indicates.
Click to expand...
I basically agree, but if we could point a reason for alcarazs loses in last two matches against sinner, it would clearly be the break point conversion, specially in umag, where he was a set up and had 6 break points that he didnt convert at the beggining of the second, in wimbledon carlos ( and i) was surprised by how sinner was returning every serve fast to his feet, so he was broken very easily starting every service point on the deffensive, in umag on the other hand, it was carlos match, he was playing better, but he totally disconected after he couldt take any of those 6 break points, most of those 6 points were carlos fault, not sinner playing amazingly on them, now he seems to be doing better on BP, so the key of the match might be there as non of them, are gonna be able to easily win their service games comfortably in a consistent way
 
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