USO 2021 Ranking Permutations

[James P]

Time to analyze the permutations of results that will exist at the 2021 US Open.

Rank Today	Name	ATP Points Today	Dropping	Live ATP Points on 8/30/21	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF	F	W
1	Djokovic	11,113	180	10,943	10,978	11,023	11,113	11,293	11,653	12,133	12,933
2	Medvedev	9,980	1200	8,790	8,825	8,870	8,960	9,140	9,500	9,980	10,780
3	Tsitsipas	8,350	150	8,210	8,245	8,290	8,380	8,560	8,920	9,400	10,200
4	Zverev	8,240	1200	7,050	7,085	7,130	7,220	7,400	7,760	8,240	9,040
5	Nadal	7,815	2000	5,815*
6	Thiem	6,995	2000	4,995*
7	Rublev	6,400	360	6,050	6,085	6,130	6,220	6,400	6,760	7,240	8,040
8	Berrettini	5,533	720	4,823	4,858	4,903	4,993	5,173	5,533	6,013	6,813
9	Federer	4,125	360	3,765*
10	Shapovalov	3,580	360	3,230	3,265	3,310	3,400	3,580	3,940	4,420	5,220
11	Ruud	3,455	90	3,375	3,410	3,455	3,545	3,725	4,085	4,565	5,365
12	Carreno Busta	3,325	720	2,615** 2,660 (WS SF) 2,720 (WS F) 2,820 (WS W)	2,650 2,695 2,755 2,855	2,695 2,740 2,800 2,900	2,785 2,830 2,890 2,990	2,965 3,010 3,070 3,170	3,325 3,370 3,430 3,530	3,805 3,850 3,910 4,010	4,605 4,650 4,710 4,810
13	Hurkacz	3,128	45	3,093	3,128	3,173	3,263	3,443	3,803	4,283	5,083
14	Schwartzman	2,980	360	2,630	2,665	2,710	2,800	2,980	3,340	3,820	4,620
15	Auger-Aliassime	2,828	180	2,658	2,693	2,738	2,828	3,008	3,368	3,848	4,648
16	Sinner	2,750	35	2,725	2,760	2,805	2,895	3,075	3,435	3,915	4,715
17	De Minaur	2,555	360	2,205	2,240	2,285	2,375	2,555	2,915	3,395	4,195
18	Dimitrov	2,511	720	1,801	1,836	1,881	1,971	2,151	2,511	2,991	3,791
19	Garin	2,510	45	2,475	2,510	2,555	2,645	2,825	3,185	3,665	4,465
20	Monfils	2,503	360	2,153	2,188	2,233	2,323	2,503	2,863	3,343	4,143

* player is injured and unavailable for the USO
** player is playing in the Winston Salem 250 tournament, points subject to change

 

[Kralingen]

Whoa. If Berrettini/Rublev/Shapo play at least decent tennis the rest of the season we could be looking at Rafa Nadal #7 seed at the next AO or FO. He’ll have to go God mode in the clay Masters next year to make it back to a top 4 seed.

which means: he could easily have something like Tsitsipas-Zverev-Djokovic B2B at RG next year. With an injured foot and declined stamina.

Suddenly I don’t feel so great about Rafa’s chances to win another slam after seeing this.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Going to be a rankings shake up. Djoker in the best position ha.

 

[James P]

Djokovic is a lock to retain 1st in the ATP rankings no matter the results. He should extend his lead on the field post-USO given his sub-optimal performances in the previous two iterations.

Fight for #2, 3, and 4: The big battle will be to see whom of the NextGen 3 will rise to the top as the #1 contender to Djokovic's hegemonic hold of the ATP rankings. Zverev has a pretty limited opportunity (needs a title, Medvedev 4R or less, and Tsitsipas SF or less), that's his only real play. Tsitsipas has a genuinely decent shot at #2. If he wins the title, it's his. If he reaches the final, he needs Daniil to get a QF or less. I expect all three to at least reach the QFs, as their consistency has been getting stronger and stronger over the past couple years.

Rublev at #5: Rublev has an extreme outlier chance at getting #4 from Zverev. I don't think he has it in him to do what would be necessary and I don't think Zverev is going to crater badly enough, so probably a moot point. He will, however, jump from #7 to #5 on the back of the two withdrawals ahead of him (Nadal/Thiem).

Berrettini at #7/8: Berrettini needs a doable QF to pass Thiem and get into 7th place, needs another slam final to pass Nadal and get into 6th place. I think the latter is unlikely, the former is very much in play.

Can anyone pass Federer?: So Fed, despite missing this tournament, is still in decent position to retain #9, certainly unlikely to drop out of the top 10 this tournament. Shapo getting a SF and Hurkacz also getting a SF seem to be the biggest realistic threats, although I think both will fall short.

More jockeying down below: Hurkacz, Sinner, and FAA are all in decent positions to move forward this tournament given the small points they are defending. Good opportunity for the trio. On the other side of the equation, PCB and Dimitrov especially, but also Schwartzman, De Minaur, and Monfils are in really bad positions and may plummet down the rankings.

 

[itrium84]

Time to analyze the permutations of results that will exist at the 2021 US Open.

Rank Today	Name	ATP Points Today	Dropping	Live ATP Points on 8/30/21	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF	F	W
1	Djokovic	11,113	180	10,943	10,978	11,023	11,113	11,293	11,653	12,133	12,933
2	Medvedev	9,980	1200	8,790	8,825	8,870	8,960	9,140	9,500	9,980	10,780
3	Tsitsipas	8,350	150	8,210	8,245	8,290	8,380	8,560	8,920	9,400	10,200
4	Zverev	8,240	1200	7,050	7,085	7,130	7,220	7,400	7,760	8,240	9,040
5	Nadal	7,815	2000	5,815*
6	Thiem	6,995	2000	4,995*
7	Rublev	6,400	360	6,050	6,085	6,130	6,220	6,400	6,760	7,240	8,040
8	Berrettini	5,533	720	4,823	4,858	4,903	4,993	5,173	5,533	6,013	6,813
9	Federer	4,125	360	3,765*
10	Shapovalov	3,580	360	3,230	3,265	3,310	3,400	3,580	3,940	4,420	5,220
11	Ruud	3,455	90	3,375	3,410	3,455	3,545	3,725	4,085	4,565	5,365
12	Carreno Busta	3,325	720	2,615** 2,660 (WS SF) 2,720 (WS F) 2,820 (WS W)	2,650 2,695 2,755 2,855	2,695 2,740 2,800 2,900	2,785 2,830 2,890 2,990	2,965 3,010 3,070 3,170	3,325 3,370 3,430 3,530	3,805 3,850 3,910 4,010	4,605 4,650 4,710 4,810
13	Hurkacz	3,128	45	3,093	3,128	3,173	3,263	3,443	3,803	4,283	5,083
14	Schwartzman	2,980	360	2,630	2,665	2,710	2,800	2,980	3,340	3,820	4,620
15	Auger-Aliassime	2,828	180	2,658	2,693	2,738	2,828	3,008	3,368	3,848	4,648
16	Sinner	2,750	35	2,725	2,760	2,805	2,895	3,075	3,435	3,915	4,715
17	De Minaur	2,555	360	2,205	2,240	2,285	2,375	2,555	2,915	3,395	4,195
18	Dimitrov	2,511	720	1,801	1,836	1,881	1,971	2,151	2,511	2,991	3,791
19	Garin	2,510	45	2,475	2,510	2,555	2,645	2,825	3,185	3,665	4,465
20	Monfils	2,503	360	2,153	2,188	2,233	2,323	2,503	2,863	3,343	4,143

* player is injured and unavailable for the USO
** player is playing in the Winston Salem 250 tournament, points subject to change

Thank you for the effort, you're a good guy.

 

[Tennisbg]

Covid ranking helped Fed a lot.

 

[James P]

Current state of the ATP Race:

ATP Race	Name	Age	Nation	ATP Points	ATP Points Change	Current Tournament	Next ATP Race Pts	Last ATP Race Pts
1	✓ Novak Djoković	34.2	SRB1	7180	+10	US Open R128	7215	9170
2	Stefanos Tsitsipas	23	GRE1	5390	+10	US Open R128	5425	7380
3	Daniil Medvedev	25.5	RUS1	4390	+10	US Open R128	4425	6380
4	Alexander Zverev	24.3	GER1	4205	+10	US Open R128	4240	6195
5	Andrey Rublev	23.8	RUS2	3950	+10	US Open R128	3985	5940
6	Matteo Berrettini	25.3	ITA1	3605	+10	US Open R128	3640	5595
7	Rafael Nadal	35.2	ESP1	2985	-	-	-	-
8	Casper Ruud	22.6	NOR1	2640	+10	US Open R128	2675	4630
9	Hubert Hurkacz	24.5	POL1	2470	+10	US Open R128	2505	4460
10	Jannik Sinner	20	ITA2	2085	+10	US Open R128	2120	4075
11	Aslan Karatsev	27.9	RUS3	1815	+10	US Open R128	1850	3805
12	Pablo Carreño Busta	30.1	ESP2	1730	+10	US Open R128	1765	3720
13	Cameron Norrie	26	GBR2	1690	-10	US Open R128	1725	3680
14	Denis Shapovalov	22.3	CAN1	1665	+10	US Open R128	1700	3655
15	Félix Auger-Aliassime	21	CAN2	1610	+10	US Open R128	1645	3600

Djokovic is a virtual lock to retain #1 and Tsitsipas is also highly likely to retain #2 (barring a Medvedev or Zverev title). Big drop off between #6 Berrettini and #7/8 Ruud. With Nadal out, Hurkacz is currently in the #8 hot seat. 5,780 points will lock you into a slot, although it will lower drastically post-USO. I imagine at least the top 6 will be locked in after the USO, especially if they all manage to play to their seedings.

 

[Milanez82]

So Sinner with a good showing has a really good chance to finish this year as top 10
And looking at that top 15, basically Djokovic is the only old active guy in the race lol

 

[itrium84]

It seems Alcaraz helped Novak retain his no1 spot.
Tsitsy lost some points at USO?

 

[James P]

It seems Alcaraz helped Novak retain his no1 spot.
Tsitsy lost some points at USO?

It's virtually impossible for anyone to take over the #1 Ranking this year from Novak. I'm sure there's a miniscule and ridiculously unlikely scenario where Novak goes 0-8 the rest of the year or something like that, but it's been over for a while now.

 

[James P]

One thing I didn't think would be in play was Medvedev's play for #2 in the Race. He needs to reach the final here, but either a title or runner up will push him above Tsitsipas now.

 

[Tennisfan339]

It's virtually impossible for anyone to take over the #1 Ranking this year from Novak. I'm sure there's a miniscule and ridiculously unlikely scenario where Novak goes 0-8 the rest of the year or something like that, but it's been over for a while now.

For YE-1, the gap (ATP Race live) between Djokovic and Medvedev is now 2700, 2790 if Djokovic reaches the 4th round (like Medvedev did yesterday). If Zverev beats Djokovic and Medvedev beats Zverev, 2790 - (2000 - 720) = 1510 (very hypothetical scenario but not totally unlikely)

Not sure about Djokovic's schedule but I assume Medvedev will play IW, St-Petersburg (ATP500 this year), Paris and WTF. He can win a maximum of 4000 points after USO. Mathematically it's still possible for him if he wins USO (also possible for Zverev, by the way). If Zverev takes out Djokovic, whoever wins the tournament will still have a chance. 1510 points (1695 points if Zverev wins) isn't that huge. It will really depend on Djokovic's schedule. If he wins USO, it's definitely over. If he doesn't, will he want to fight for YE-1? I highly doubt he plays IW regardless. And if Zverev or Medvedev wins USO, it's not far-fetched to think this person can also take IW and do better than Djokovic in Paris and Turin.

Very difficult and hypothetical, but not virtually impossible IMO.

 

[James P]

We've effectively reached the end of the road. Nothing else can change from here on out, although the final is worth a 1,600 point swing between the #1 and #2 players.

New career high ATP rankings (top 15):
Andrey Rublev will move up to #5. That was guaranteed upon the withdrawals of Nadal and Thiem, so no big surprise.
Matteo Berrettini will move up to #7 passing Thiem.
Casper Ruud will move into the top 10 for the first time, into position #10.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will move up four spots to a career high #11.
Jannik Sinner will move up to #14.

ATP Race position changes:
Daniil Medvedev will move into the #2 spot. He and Stefanos Tsistsipas have officially qualified for the ATP Finals.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will move up 5 spots to #10 (#9). He's less than 200 points behind Hubert Hurkacz for the final berth into the ATP Finals.
Indian Wells and Paris are still coming up, so it's impossible to narrow down the field completely, but it seems like the last 2 spots might be between Ruud, Hurkacz, FAA, and Sinner.

 

[NAS]

So if Djoker wins us Open, more or less he is Guaranteed for year end number one

 

[James P]

A win gives Djokovic a 3,600 point lead in the Race. A loss, a mere 2,000 point lead.

You could make the case that "technically" Medvedev or Tsitsipas could catch him, but it's pretty much a done deal already.

Available Points:
Various 250s
One 500 (maybe two, if St Petersburg is indeed a 500 again)
Two Masters (Indian Wells and Paris)
ATP Finals

 

[Visionary]

This is one of the best pro tennis statistical threads I've ever seen on forums. Thank you @James P

 

[Visionary]

I have procrastinated to wonder how the ranking system affects the players decision which tournaments to play or not. All the events' organizers more likely want to see the best players in but top ranked ones choose their risks to add or loose some ranking points when thinking of the prize money. A winning percentage approach may be a part of the players' decision making process to play or not play the challenger 250s.

 

[James P]

I have procrastinated to wonder how the ranking system affects the players decision which tournaments to play or not. All the events' organizers more likely want to see the best players in but top ranked ones choose their risks to add or loose some ranking points when thinking of the prize money. A winning percentage approach may be a part of the players' decision making process to play or not play the challenger 250s.

There are ATP requirements for top 30 players (possibly currently suspended due to Covid, it's unclear to me), however players with lengthy careers get exemptions from some of these requirements. Basically, all four majors plus 8 of the 9 masters tournaments (Monte Carlo is the exception) are mandatory. Plus players are required to play a certain amount of 500s under normal conditions, I believe that's 4 with at least 1 after the US Open, but I might have that slightly off.

The biggest problem with the tour right now is that it's dominated by old players that aren't necessarily going to play all the required tournaments because they own a lot of exemptions. Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer all get three exemptions a year under normal circumstances, for instance. That means they only are required to play 5 masters to be in good standing. All of the younger players are required to play all 8 of the mandatory masters.