USO 2021 Ranking Permutations

James P

James P

G.O.A.T.
Time to analyze the permutations of results that will exist at the 2021 US Open.

Rank TodayNameATP Points TodayDroppingLive ATP Points on 8/30/212R3R4RQFSFFW
1Djokovic11,11318010,94310,97811,02311,11311,29311,65312,13312,933
2Medvedev9,98012008,7908,8258,8708,9609,1409,5009,98010,780
3Tsitsipas8,3501508,2108,2458,2908,3808,5608,9209,40010,200
4Zverev8,24012007,0507,0857,1307,2207,4007,7608,2409,040
5Nadal7,81520005,815*
6Thiem6,99520004,995*
7Rublev6,4003606,0506,0856,1306,2206,4006,7607,2408,040
8Berrettini5,5337204,8234,8584,9034,9935,1735,5336,0136,813
9Federer4,1253603,765*
10Shapovalov3,5803603,2303,2653,3103,4003,5803,9404,4205,220
11Ruud3,455903,3753,4103,4553,5453,7254,0854,5655,365
12Carreno Busta3,3257202,615**
2,660 (WS SF)
2,720 (WS F)
2,820 (WS W)		2,650
2,695
2,755
2,855		2,695
2,740
2,800
2,900		2,785
2,830
2,890
2,990		2,965
3,010
3,070
3,170		3,325
3,370
3,430
3,530		3,805
3,850
3,910
4,010		4,605
4,650
4,710
4,810
13Hurkacz3,128453,0933,1283,1733,2633,4433,8034,2835,083
14Schwartzman2,9803602,6302,6652,7102,8002,9803,3403,8204,620
15Auger-Aliassime2,8281802,6582,6932,7382,8283,0083,3683,8484,648
16Sinner2,750352,7252,7602,8052,8953,0753,4353,9154,715
17De Minaur2,5553602,2052,2402,2852,3752,5552,9153,3954,195
18Dimitrov2,5117201,8011,8361,8811,9712,1512,5112,9913,791
19Garin2,510452,4752,5102,5552,6452,8253,1853,6654,465
20Monfils2,5033602,1532,1882,2332,3232,5032,8633,3434,143

* player is injured and unavailable for the USO
** player is playing in the Winston Salem 250 tournament, points subject to change
 
Whoa. If Berrettini/Rublev/Shapo play at least decent tennis the rest of the season we could be looking at Rafa Nadal #7 seed at the next AO or FO. He’ll have to go God mode in the clay Masters next year to make it back to a top 4 seed.

which means: he could easily have something like Tsitsipas-Zverev-Djokovic B2B at RG next year. With an injured foot and declined stamina.

Suddenly I don’t feel so great about Rafa’s chances to win another slam after seeing this.
 
Djokovic is a lock to retain 1st in the ATP rankings no matter the results. He should extend his lead on the field post-USO given his sub-optimal performances in the previous two iterations.

Fight for #2, 3, and 4: The big battle will be to see whom of the NextGen 3 will rise to the top as the #1 contender to Djokovic's hegemonic hold of the ATP rankings. Zverev has a pretty limited opportunity (needs a title, Medvedev 4R or less, and Tsitsipas SF or less), that's his only real play. Tsitsipas has a genuinely decent shot at #2. If he wins the title, it's his. If he reaches the final, he needs Daniil to get a QF or less. I expect all three to at least reach the QFs, as their consistency has been getting stronger and stronger over the past couple years.

Rublev at #5: Rublev has an extreme outlier chance at getting #4 from Zverev. I don't think he has it in him to do what would be necessary and I don't think Zverev is going to crater badly enough, so probably a moot point. He will, however, jump from #7 to #5 on the back of the two withdrawals ahead of him (Nadal/Thiem).

Berrettini at #7/8: Berrettini needs a doable QF to pass Thiem and get into 7th place, needs another slam final to pass Nadal and get into 6th place. I think the latter is unlikely, the former is very much in play.

Can anyone pass Federer?: So Fed, despite missing this tournament, is still in decent position to retain #9, certainly unlikely to drop out of the top 10 this tournament. Shapo getting a SF and Hurkacz also getting a SF seem to be the biggest realistic threats, although I think both will fall short.

More jockeying down below: Hurkacz, Sinner, and FAA are all in decent positions to move forward this tournament given the small points they are defending. Good opportunity for the trio. On the other side of the equation, PCB and Dimitrov especially, but also Schwartzman, De Minaur, and Monfils are in really bad positions and may plummet down the rankings.
 
James P said:
Time to analyze the permutations of results that will exist at the 2021 US Open.

Rank TodayNameATP Points TodayDroppingLive ATP Points on 8/30/212R3R4RQFSFFW
1Djokovic11,11318010,94310,97811,02311,11311,29311,65312,13312,933
2Medvedev9,98012008,7908,8258,8708,9609,1409,5009,98010,780
3Tsitsipas8,3501508,2108,2458,2908,3808,5608,9209,40010,200
4Zverev8,24012007,0507,0857,1307,2207,4007,7608,2409,040
5Nadal7,81520005,815*
6Thiem6,99520004,995*
7Rublev6,4003606,0506,0856,1306,2206,4006,7607,2408,040
8Berrettini5,5337204,8234,8584,9034,9935,1735,5336,0136,813
9Federer4,1253603,765*
10Shapovalov3,5803603,2303,2653,3103,4003,5803,9404,4205,220
11Ruud3,455903,3753,4103,4553,5453,7254,0854,5655,365
12Carreno Busta3,3257202,615**
2,660 (WS SF)
2,720 (WS F)
2,820 (WS W)		2,650
2,695
2,755
2,855		2,695
2,740
2,800
2,900		2,785
2,830
2,890
2,990		2,965
3,010
3,070
3,170		3,325
3,370
3,430
3,530		3,805
3,850
3,910
4,010		4,605
4,650
4,710
4,810
13Hurkacz3,128453,0933,1283,1733,2633,4433,8034,2835,083
14Schwartzman2,9803602,6302,6652,7102,8002,9803,3403,8204,620
15Auger-Aliassime2,8281802,6582,6932,7382,8283,0083,3683,8484,648
16Sinner2,750352,7252,7602,8052,8953,0753,4353,9154,715
17De Minaur2,5553602,2052,2402,2852,3752,5552,9153,3954,195
18Dimitrov2,5117201,8011,8361,8811,9712,1512,5112,9913,791
19Garin2,510452,4752,5102,5552,6452,8253,1853,6654,465
20Monfils2,5033602,1532,1882,2332,3232,5032,8633,3434,143

* player is injured and unavailable for the USO
** player is playing in the Winston Salem 250 tournament, points subject to change
Click to expand...
Thank you for the effort, you're a good guy. :)
 
Current state of the ATP Race:

ATP RaceNameAgeNationATP PointsATP Points ChangeCurrent TournamentNext ATP Race PtsLast ATP Race Pts
1✓ Novak Djoković34.2SRB17180+10US Open R12872159170
2Stefanos Tsitsipas23GRE15390+10US Open R12854257380
3Daniil Medvedev25.5RUS14390+10US Open R12844256380
4Alexander Zverev24.3GER14205+10US Open R12842406195
5Andrey Rublev23.8RUS23950+10US Open R12839855940
6Matteo Berrettini25.3ITA13605+10US Open R12836405595
7Rafael Nadal35.2ESP12985----
8Casper Ruud22.6NOR12640+10US Open R12826754630
9Hubert Hurkacz24.5POL12470+10US Open R12825054460
10Jannik Sinner20ITA22085+10US Open R12821204075
11Aslan Karatsev27.9RUS31815+10US Open R12818503805
12Pablo Carreño Busta30.1ESP21730+10US Open R12817653720
13Cameron Norrie26GBR21690-10US Open R12817253680
14Denis Shapovalov22.3CAN11665+10US Open R12817003655
15Félix Auger-Aliassime21CAN21610+10US Open R12816453600

Djokovic is a virtual lock to retain #1 and Tsitsipas is also highly likely to retain #2 (barring a Medvedev or Zverev title). Big drop off between #6 Berrettini and #7/8 Ruud. With Nadal out, Hurkacz is currently in the #8 hot seat. 5,780 points will lock you into a slot, although it will lower drastically post-USO. I imagine at least the top 6 will be locked in after the USO, especially if they all manage to play to their seedings.
 
itrium84 said:
It seems Alcaraz helped Novak retain his no1 spot.
Tsitsy lost some points at USO?
Click to expand...
It's virtually impossible for anyone to take over the #1 Ranking this year from Novak. I'm sure there's a miniscule and ridiculously unlikely scenario where Novak goes 0-8 the rest of the year or something like that, but it's been over for a while now.
 
One thing I didn't think would be in play was Medvedev's play for #2 in the Race. He needs to reach the final here, but either a title or runner up will push him above Tsitsipas now.
 
James P said:
It's virtually impossible for anyone to take over the #1 Ranking this year from Novak. I'm sure there's a miniscule and ridiculously unlikely scenario where Novak goes 0-8 the rest of the year or something like that, but it's been over for a while now.
Click to expand...

For YE-1, the gap (ATP Race live) between Djokovic and Medvedev is now 2700, 2790 if Djokovic reaches the 4th round (like Medvedev did yesterday). If Zverev beats Djokovic and Medvedev beats Zverev, 2790 - (2000 - 720) = 1510 (very hypothetical scenario but not totally unlikely)

Not sure about Djokovic's schedule but I assume Medvedev will play IW, St-Petersburg (ATP500 this year), Paris and WTF. He can win a maximum of 4000 points after USO. Mathematically it's still possible for him if he wins USO (also possible for Zverev, by the way). If Zverev takes out Djokovic, whoever wins the tournament will still have a chance. 1510 points (1695 points if Zverev wins) isn't that huge. It will really depend on Djokovic's schedule. If he wins USO, it's definitely over. If he doesn't, will he want to fight for YE-1? I highly doubt he plays IW regardless. And if Zverev or Medvedev wins USO, it's not far-fetched to think this person can also take IW and do better than Djokovic in Paris and Turin.

Very difficult and hypothetical, but not virtually impossible IMO.
 
We've effectively reached the end of the road. Nothing else can change from here on out, although the final is worth a 1,600 point swing between the #1 and #2 players.

New career high ATP rankings (top 15):
Andrey Rublev will move up to #5. That was guaranteed upon the withdrawals of Nadal and Thiem, so no big surprise.
Matteo Berrettini will move up to #7 passing Thiem.
Casper Ruud will move into the top 10 for the first time, into position #10.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will move up four spots to a career high #11.
Jannik Sinner will move up to #14.

ATP Race position changes:
Daniil Medvedev will move into the #2 spot. He and Stefanos Tsistsipas have officially qualified for the ATP Finals.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will move up 5 spots to #10 (#9). He's less than 200 points behind Hubert Hurkacz for the final berth into the ATP Finals.
Indian Wells and Paris are still coming up, so it's impossible to narrow down the field completely, but it seems like the last 2 spots might be between Ruud, Hurkacz, FAA, and Sinner.
 
A win gives Djokovic a 3,600 point lead in the Race. A loss, a mere 2,000 point lead.

You could make the case that "technically" Medvedev or Tsitsipas could catch him, but it's pretty much a done deal already.

Available Points:
Various 250s
One 500 (maybe two, if St Petersburg is indeed a 500 again)
Two Masters (Indian Wells and Paris)
ATP Finals
 
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I have procrastinated to wonder how the ranking system affects the players decision which tournaments to play or not. All the events' organizers more likely want to see the best players in but top ranked ones choose their risks to add or loose some ranking points when thinking of the prize money. A winning percentage approach may be a part of the players' decision making process to play or not play the challenger 250s.
 
Visionary said:
I have procrastinated to wonder how the ranking system affects the players decision which tournaments to play or not. All the events' organizers more likely want to see the best players in but top ranked ones choose their risks to add or loose some ranking points when thinking of the prize money. A winning percentage approach may be a part of the players' decision making process to play or not play the challenger 250s.
Click to expand...
There are ATP requirements for top 30 players (possibly currently suspended due to Covid, it's unclear to me), however players with lengthy careers get exemptions from some of these requirements. Basically, all four majors plus 8 of the 9 masters tournaments (Monte Carlo is the exception) are mandatory. Plus players are required to play a certain amount of 500s under normal conditions, I believe that's 4 with at least 1 after the US Open, but I might have that slightly off.

The biggest problem with the tour right now is that it's dominated by old players that aren't necessarily going to play all the required tournaments because they own a lot of exemptions. Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer all get three exemptions a year under normal circumstances, for instance. That means they only are required to play 5 masters to be in good standing. All of the younger players are required to play all 8 of the mandatory masters.
 
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