USO 2023 Top 4 Draw and Discussion

TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz
R1: Koepfer
R2: Pella
R3: Evans
R4: Norrie
QF: Zverev/Sinner
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

Djokovic
R1: Muller
R2: Zapata Miralles
R3: Djere
R4: FAA/Cerundolo
QF: Fritz/Musetti/Tsitsipas
SF: Rune
F: Alcaraz

Medvedev
R1: Balazs
R2: Purcell
R3: Coric
R4: de Minaur
QF: Khachanov/Rublev/Hurkacz
SF: Alcaraz
F: Djokovic

Rune
R1: RCB
R2: Lehecka
R3: Bublik/Thiem
R4: Paul/ADF
QF: Tiafoe/Ruud/Korda
SF: Djokovic
F: Alcaraz
 
I have given Djokovic credit all the time but he's getting cupcake draw in every single draw since last few years, it's getting ridiculous at this point. On other hand Alcaraz have been given draw from hell.
 
Good draw for Djokovic. Alcaraz's is decent in the early rounds but gets pretty tough from QF onwards.
 
Analysis:

Alcaraz - 8+/10 - Getting not-easy matches right from the get go. Evans is no slouch. Despite going out R1 in 4/5 of his last tournaments, he has the skill to be a threat. Question is if he will be. Past that, we know Norrie has some good stuff sometimes, and Alcaraz has easily the least desirable QF for a top seed. Knowing he's then following it up with Medvedev/Rublev/Khachanov/Hurkacz, there's no chance his SF will be easy either. This is about as tough as a draw can get nowadays. However, the difficulty scale goes up steadily. He can play himself into some very good form here.

Djokovic - 1.5/10 - Some easy R1-R4, followed by a middling QF and the weaker SF by far. If Ruud/Rune even make it that far, which they've been failing recently. If they don't, then it's even weaker than predicted. Could've been weaker, but not by much.

Medvedev - 5/10 - He's got a good draw for playing into form. Starts weak and the challenge gets going with ADM. If he can pass that test, the challenge raises quickly - one of several dangerous guys (will make him run), followed by the tournament co-favorite. Not easy at all, but his draw seems normal.

Rune - 5/10 - A Paul/ADF R4 is fairly dangerous, possibly the most dangerous of all 4 top seeds. Bublik/Thiem won't be easy either. The QF gives a bit of a reprieve though, unless Korda/Tiafoe/Ruud end up showing off some great form.
 
TripleATeam said:
Zverev
R1: Vukic
R2: Altmaier
R3: Murray/Dimitrov
R4: Sinner/Wawrinka
QF: Alcaraz
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

An incredibly hard draw.
Click to expand...
This is the actual draw from hell, wow. Muzz or Dmitrov in round 3 followed by the 4 favorites for the tournament back to back to back to back…

If Alcaraz’s draw is 9/10 difficult then Zed’s is an easy 10
 
Alcaraz can beat the players in his draw but the cumulative effect is where he will feel the pain.

Thus the slam count is a wrong way to measure the better player over time when they are all in the same ball park.
 
NeutralFan said:
I have given Djokovic credit all the time but he's getting cupcake draw in every single draw since last few years, it's getting ridiculous at this point. On other hand Alcaraz have been given draw from hell.
Click to expand...

I think it is all about making things interesting. Draws are probably rigged (always have been in 2000s as well) in some way and the older guys get some cushion in order to make things interesting. Tennis is also end of the day a product made for spectators' entertainment, so it will customized for that by the organizers come what may.
 
tudwell said:
I would guess neither Medvedev nor Rune makes the semis here.
Click to expand...
Draws are always interesting to speculate about but I think Medvedev will make it to the semis and then he'll been in tough against Alcaraz. It's an extremely tough draw and whoever comes out of it will be tested and ready to go. That much we know for sure.

On the other side, we know Rune can beat Djokovic and they'll be no fear with him if they play. The conditions will hopefully play a role too because I like to see how players adapt in the wind and the humidity. We know Djokovic wilts in humid conditions and that alone can make a difference. The humidity plays havoc with your insides and it's something Djokovic has struggled with a lot in his career.
 
Torben said:
Draws are always interesting to speculate about but I think Medvedev will make it to the semis and then he'll been in tough against Alcaraz. It's an extremely tough draw and whoever comes out of it will be tested and ready to go. That much we know for sure.

On the other side, we know Rune can beat Djokovic and they'll be no fear with him if they play. The conditions will hopefully play a role too because I like to see how players adapt in the wind and the humidity. We know Djokovic wilts in humid conditions and that alone can make a difference. The humidity plays havoc with your insides and it's something Djokovic has struggled with a lot in his career.
Click to expand...
Hopefully the weather isn’t that brutal this year in New York! ;)
 
Krish0608 said:
I agree Novak has a cakewalk. But Carlos’ draw gets tricky only from QF onwards. Until then it’s pretty routine for him.
Click to expand...
Depends on how you define tricky. It's certainly not likely he'll be upset by Evans or Norrie, but would I choose Evans/Norrie over Djere/FAA (in current form)? Yes.

Evans has bright flashes and Norrie can bring a tough game. Djere is a more straightforward match in most circumstances, and FAA is only a problem if he suddenly regains his form of yesteryear.
 
TripleATeam said:
Alcaraz
R1: Koepfer
R2: Pella
R3: Evans
R4: Norrie
QF: Zverev/Sinner
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

Djokovic
R1: Muller
R2: Zapata Miralles
R3: Djere
R4: FAA/Cerundolo
QF: Fritz/Musetti/Tsitsipas
SF: Rune
F: Alcaraz

Medvedev
R1: Balazs
R2: Purcell
R3: Coric
R4: de Minaur
QF: Khachanov/Rublev/Hurkacz
SF: Alcaraz
F: Djokovic

Rune
R1: RCB
R2: Lehecka
R3: Bublik/Thiem
R4: Paul/ADF
QF: Tiafoe/Ruud/Korda
SF: Djokovic
F: Alcaraz
Click to expand...
New #4 after Rune's loss.

Djokovic
R1: Muller
R2: Zapata Miralles
R3: Djere
R4: Cerundolo
QF: Fritz/Tsitsipas
SF: Ruud
F: Alcaraz

Draw didn't change much, Ruud now the projected SF but that's not a huge change.

Ruud
R1: Nava
R2: Zhang
R3: Fucsovics
R4: Tiafoe
QF: Paul/Thiem
SF: Djokovic
F: Alcaraz

Ruud's early problem in Korda was taken out by Fucsovics, and his biggest QF problem in Rune was taken out. Ruud's draw becomes even easier as he moves past his R1 opponent. The major remaining threats in his quarter (if you can call them major threats) are Tiafoe, Paul, and Thiem. Given Dominic hasn't gone past R1 in any of his last 7 slams (since 2021 AO) and hasn't seen the R3 of a M1000 since Madrid 2021, I hesitate to call him tough. However, if he regains anything close to his 2019-2020 form he would be a monster. Tiafoe hasn't seen the R16 at a M1000+ tournament since Indian Wells, but he could pull out a good run like he did last year. And Paul has just been pretty good recently.

Overall Ruud's path is still much like Rune's was, but even weaker now that Rune and Korda are gone. 3/10, and that's even adjusting for Ruud not being great recently. The quality of the draw in a vacuum is not far from Djokovic's - a very soft one. Main difference is the SF - Ruud has Djokovic whereas Djokovic has Ruud.
 
MichaelNadal said:
I wish there was but there’s no way Novak can mess this up. He has nothing till the final.
Click to expand...
I know you taking the pressure off as expected with you being a Nadal fan. However, if alcaraz gets to the final he is slight favourite over Novak. Meddy would have his chances too. We will see. I don’t expect Novak to sleepwalk through his side. This isn’t Australia so I don’t think it will be as easy as some think.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I know you taking the pressure off as expected with you being a Nadal fan. However, if alcaraz gets to the final he is slight favourite over Novak. Meddy would have his chances too. We will see. I don’t expect Novak to sleepwalk through his side. This isn’t Australia so I don’t think it will be as easy as some think.
Click to expand...
No….. there’s just no pressure lol
 
TripleATeam said:
New #4 after Rune's loss.

Djokovic
R1: Muller
R2: Zapata Miralles
R3: Djere
R4: Cerundolo
QF: Fritz/Tsitsipas
SF: Ruud
F: Alcaraz

Draw didn't change much, Ruud now the projected SF but that's not a huge change.

Ruud
R1: Nava
R2: Zhang
R3: Fucsovics
R4: Tiafoe
QF: Paul/Thiem
SF: Djokovic
F: Alcaraz

Ruud's early problem in Korda was taken out by Fucsovics, and his biggest QF problem in Rune was taken out. Ruud's draw becomes even easier as he moves past his R1 opponent. The major remaining threats in his quarter (if you can call them major threats) are Tiafoe, Paul, and Thiem. Given Dominic hasn't gone past R1 in any of his last 7 slams (since 2021 AO) and hasn't seen the R3 of a M1000 since Madrid 2021, I hesitate to call him tough. However, if he regains anything close to his 2019-2020 form he would be a monster. Tiafoe hasn't seen the R16 at a M1000+ tournament since Indian Wells, but he could pull out a good run like he did last year. And Paul has just been pretty good recently.

Overall Ruud's path is still much like Rune's was, but even weaker now that Rune and Korda are gone. 3/10, and that's even adjusting for Ruud not being great recently. The quality of the draw in a vacuum is not far from Djokovic's - a very soft one. Main difference is the SF - Ruud has Djokovic whereas Djokovic has Ruud.
Click to expand...

Ruud's dad beat Korda's dad in Miami '99 in straight sets :D
 
TripleATeam said:
Depends on how you define tricky. It's certainly not likely he'll be upset by Evans or Norrie, but would I choose Evans/Norrie over Djere/FAA (in current form)? Yes.

Evans has bright flashes and Norrie can bring a tough game. Djere is a more straightforward match in most circumstances, and FAA is only a problem if he suddenly regains his form of yesteryear.
Click to expand...
I get why the tournaments say the seeded projections but I don't think anyone in their right mind had FAA as the 4R actual opponent for Djokovic to face. Especially when Mackenzie McDonald was in the mix.

McDonald is coming off a 3R in Cincy with a top 10 win over Rune and a QF in Canada with a top 10 win over Rublev.

He's in better form than Djere, Norrie, Evans or Felix.
 
Kralingen said:
Incredibly easy draw for Novak, about as hard as hard gets for Carlos. Because of course it is.
Click to expand...
How is it hard to face Dominik Koepfer who's never gotten a top 10 win on a hard court? Then 2R either two players outside the top 170 who are using protected rankings (Pella or Harris) and in terrible form? And then Dan Evans who outside of the Washington title has lost his opening match at the last 7 tournaments played? And then Cam Norrie 4R who's lost his last 4 matches?

If that's "as hard as it gets" then geez.
 
Last edited:
TripleATeam said:
Analysis:

Alcaraz - 8+/10 - Getting not-easy matches right from the get go. Evans is no slouch. Despite going out R1 in 4/5 of his last tournaments, he has the skill to be a threat. Question is if he will be. Past that, we know Norrie has some good stuff sometimes, and Alcaraz has easily the least desirable QF for a top seed. Knowing he's then following it up with Medvedev/Rublev/Khachanov/Hurkacz, there's no chance his SF will be easy either. This is about as tough as a draw can get nowadays. However, the difficulty scale goes up steadily. He can play himself into some very good form here.

Djokovic - 1.5/10 - Some easy R1-R4, followed by a middling QF and the weaker SF by far. If Ruud/Rune even make it that far, which they've been failing recently. If they don't, then it's even weaker than predicted. Could've been weaker, but not by much.

Medvedev - 5/10 - He's got a good draw for playing into form. Starts weak and the challenge gets going with ADM. If he can pass that test, the challenge raises quickly - one of several dangerous guys (will make him run), followed by the tournament co-favorite. Not easy at all, but his draw seems normal.

Rune - 5/10 - A Paul/ADF R4 is fairly dangerous, possibly the most dangerous of all 4 top seeds. Bublik/Thiem won't be easy either. The QF gives a bit of a reprieve though, unless Korda/Tiafoe/Ruud end up showing off some great form.
Click to expand...
Evans has actually lost R1 in 7 of his last 8 main tour tournaments. Not 4 of the last 5. But yes, he's a big threat. ;)
 
Both Djokovic and Alcaraz have virtual byes from R1-R4, but then Alcaraz likely has genuine opponents in the QF-SF whereas Djokovic has two more byes
 
weakera said:
Both Djokovic and Alcaraz have virtual byes from R1-R4, but then Alcaraz likely has genuine opponents in the QF-SF whereas Djokovic has two more byes
Click to expand...
Other than Medvedev, nobody in the draw would have been called a genuine opponent for Novak, let's be real.

Alcaraz struggles with Sinner and that's why people are calling him a genuine opponent for him. Djokovic has never lost to the guy and smoked him in straight sets at the Wimbledon SF. So he hardly would have been worrisome.

Who else were we looking at as a threat at a slam for Djokovic? Rublev? De Minaur? Tommy Paul? Khachanov? All guys that Novak played at slams this year and easily beat.
 
Aussie Darcy said:
Other than Medvedev, nobody in the draw would have been called a genuine opponent for Novak, let's be real.

Alcaraz struggles with Sinner and that's why people are calling him a genuine opponent for him. Djokovic has never lost to the guy and smoked him in straight sets at the Wimbledon SF. So he hardly would have been worrisome.
Click to expand...

No, I would call Zverev, Medvedev, Alcaraz, Vesley, Davidovich Fokina and Hurkacz legitimate opponents, as well as Rune when he was actually in-form
 
weakera said:
No, I would call Zverev, Medvedev, Alcaraz, Vesley, Davidovich Fokina and Hurkacz legitimate opponents, as well as Rune when he was actually in-form
Click to expand...
I'll give you the word "genuine" but they were never a chance at winning or even troubling Djokovic, let's be real. Whereas Sinner could genuinely beat Alcaraz, he wouldn't be pushing Djokovic given what we saw at Wimbledon. And given how Novak has looked at the slams this year, neither would anyone you listed other than Alcaraz and Medvedev which I already said.
 
Aussie Darcy said:
I'll give you the word "genuine" but they were never a chance at winning or even troubling Djokovic, let's be real. Whereas Sinner could genuinely beat Alcaraz, he wouldn't be pushing Djokovic given what we saw at Wimbledon. And given how Novak has looked at the slams this year, neither would anyone you listed other than Alcaraz and Medvedev which I already said.
Click to expand...

No, I would probably bet on Davidovich Fokina honestly
 
weakera said:
No, I would probably bet on Davidovich Fokina honestly
Click to expand...
The guy who has just two top 20 wins at slams/best of 5 format in his career and they were over... let me check.... Hurkacz and Ruud? And same guy who played Novak at a slam this year and lost in straight sets?

I would definitely have told you to save your money... :notworthy:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TripleATeam
RG 2023 Top 4 Seed Draws
Replies
25
Views
1K
tennis_error
tennis_error
TripleATeam
AO 2023 Draw Top 4 Analysis
2 3
Replies
124
Views
5K
TripleATeam
TripleATeam
TripleATeam
RG 2022 Top 4 Draw
2 3
Replies
122
Views
4K
weakera
weakera
TripleATeam
Top 4 Draws: Australian Open 2024
2
Replies
65
Views
2K
tennislover2
T
RF-18
Djokovic and Nadals draw for RG
2
Replies
72
Views
2K
RF-18
RF-18
Back
Top