USO 2024 Contender Draw Analysis

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Top 4 seeds are Sinner, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Zverev. As tradition, I'm throwing in a bonus player - Medvedev.

Sinner
R1: McDonald
R2: Michelsen
R3: Jarry/Wawrinka
R4: Paul
QF: Medvedev / Tsitsipas
SF: Alcaraz
F: Djokovic

9/10

It's about as tough a path as you can expect here. The harder semifinal by far, the hardest quarterfinalist and one of the more dangerous backup quarterfinalists, along with a tough R4. The R1-R3 are fairly weak though and unlikely to present a major hurdle. The jump from R3-R4 could be tough to navigate, but I expect Sinner to make it through. Unfortunately, there's no breaks after R3's over, so Sinner will need to be strong throughout in order to win. I'll give this a 9/10. Theoretically there could've been a stronger hurdle in the first week to bump him up the extra point, but the 2nd week is as tough as it gets nowadays.

Alcaraz
R1: Qualifier
R2: Shapovalov / van de Zandschulp
R3: Draper
R4: Korda
QF: de Minaur / Hurkacz
SF: Sinner
F: Djokovic

6/10

R1-R2 shouldn't be tough. R3 and R4 are decent opponents. Both have another level they can theoretically hit to trouble Alcaraz (especially if he plays anything like he did against Monfils), and both are somewhat consistent players without major losing streaks recently. Likely to at least prove troublesome during a set or two - still, not the hardest possible R4 but not the easiest. He drew the easier backup QFist but among the harder QFists - I'd rank them as Medvedev > Hurkacz > Rublev > Ruud in terms of most dangerous here to the least. SF and F were always going to be Djokovic and Sinner, the question was what order he'd get them - I think he got the worse order. You'd probably want to face Djokovic first and go all-out there maybe before Djokovic locks in for the final, but then again this is the US Open so maybe Djokovic in the final is vulnerable. Either way, I think Sinner's less likely to win his semifinal against Zverev if it happens than Djokovic would - so you'd want Djokovic to happen first in case your finals opponent is Zverev.

All in all, solid draw but not extreme in any respect. 6/10 as the R3-R4 are solid. I think the draw's very advantageous as it ramps up in difficulty in a measured way. No sudden jumps in difficulty and starts slow to let him get in the headspace.

Zverev
R1: Ruusuvuori
R2: Walton/Muller
R3: Cerundolo
R4: Rune/Musetti
QF: Ruud/Fritz/Humbert
SF: Djokovic
F: Sinner/Alcaraz

3/10

Harder half. I think he would've preferred Djokovic/Alcaraz duking it out and him taking on Sinner. However, he got the easiest QFist but the harder backups (both great servers). Despite Rune's rocky start of the year, he's not been doing too poorly recently. Musetti has also been alright, though his top level performances leave a bit to be desired. I'd still prefer this R4 to all the others. The R1-R3 are fairly unremarkable. I think the discussion about what half he'd like probably affords him a half point, but everything else is either below average or average in difficulty. It's about on par with Djokovic's draw below, with more variance. It could end up much easier (if Fritz and Humbert lose early and Rune/Musetti really aren't up to it) but could end up harder (Cerundolo, well-playing Rune, servebot Fritz, Djokovic, Alcaraz).

Djokovic
R1: Qualifier
R2: Djere/Struff
R3: Popyrin
R4: Shelton/Tiafoe
QF: Rublev/Dimitrov
SF: Zverev
F: Sinner/Alcaraz

3/10

Easier SF, easier QFists. Shelton/Tiafoe could be troublesome (their Cincinnati alone would be cause for some concern, but they've also got other performances in their past that prove they have a high level), but I'm not expecting them to cause too much trouble unless Djokovic comes out really flat. Similar from Struff and Popyrin in R2-R3 (Struff is ranked 35, so almost seeded yet still a R2). Djokovic has the hardest R1-R3 of any of these guys, I just don't think that'll be too much of a problem unless they stop him from getting a good rest in. Nontheless, the draw is pretty much perfect. It's not too difficult until the final, and it slowly ramps up in difficulty right from the get go. If you could craft a draw, I'd probably change the R2 to be slightly easier but it's pretty much exactly what I'd want in Djokovic's shoes. 3/10 for difficulty.

Medvedev
R1: Lajovic
R2: Marozsan
R3: Cobolli
R4: Tsitsipas/FAA
QF: Sinner
SF: Alcaraz
F: Djokovic

8/10

Let alone being in the harder half (would prefer Djokovic/Zverev as then you don't need to go through all 3 of Sinner/Alcaraz/Djokovic), he's also placed in a section with Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas has the experience of a slam finalist and the level of play to get there again if he gets his act together, along with FAA as a backup that has the skills if it's the right day. However, the first 3 rounds really shouldn't trouble him at all. That could be tough as it's a sizeable jump to go straight to Tsitsipas' level if he's there, but it's unlikely to happen given how he's been playing. I'd definitely take Tsitsipas over Paul, though, with the way he's been playing. 8/10 at most.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
I think Medvedev has Tsitsipas in the 4th round, or whoever wins between FAA/Tsistipas. Cobolli's in good form too. I think his draw is the toughest then Sinner's. Alcaraz should really like his draw to the SF. Hurkacz is injured and not a threat, and won't make it to the QF and he should deal with De Minaur much easier. Korda could be tricky though.

Zverev and Djokovic should like theirs as well but Djokovic has Canada champ Popyrin to deal with and Tiafoe. From overall hardest to easiest I'd go Medvedev > Sinner > Djokovic > Alcaraz > Zverev
 
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He’s got to make another slam final, on his favorite surface. He’s a better hardcourter than Medvedev and Alcaraz so I expect him to make the final at least
If he pulls this off then no one can deny his brilliance on hard courts again. As it’s a nightmare path but as you say he’s great on hard courts so he got to show it.

Let’s see how he is mentally as well when the tournament starts.
 

Jack the Hack

Hall of Fame
He’s got to make another slam final, on his favorite surface. He’s a better hardcourter than Medvedev and Alcaraz so I expect him to make the final at least

I agree with you on everything other than him making the final of the US Open this year.

Sinner has made the quarterfinals or better in every single tournament he has played in 2024. With his US Open draw, I think it's likely that he will keep that streak going and make the quarters. However, I am worried that he's not 100% fit with his hip and that the recent anti-doping fiasco will be too much of a mental and emotional burden now that it's in the public and he's taking shots left and right questioning his character. Medvedev in the quarters on a fast hard court, followed by Alcaraz in the semifinals, will be a huge challenge. With everything going on, I don't think he'll get through both guys and makes the finals this year... but we'll see.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Should’ve put Alcaraz and Sinner on opposite sides of the draw:rolleyes:

Should have beaten Monfils...

915dhf.jpg
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
I think Medvedev has Tsitsipas in the 4th round, or whoever wins between FAA/Tsistipas. Cobolli's in good form too. I think his draw is the toughest then Sinner's. Alcaraz should really like his draw to the SF. Hurkacz is injured and not a threat, and won't make it to the QF and he should deal with De Minaur much easier. Korda could be tricky though.

Zverev and Djokovic should like theirs as well but Djokovic has Canada champ Popyrin to deal with and Tiafoe. From overall hardest to easiest I'd go Medvedev > Sinner > Djokovic > Alcaraz > Zverev

Draper could also be lurking in the Alcaraz section.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Top 4 seeds are Sinner, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Zverev. As tradition, I'm throwing in a bonus player - Medvedev.

Sinner
R1: McDonald


9/10

The R1-R3 are fairly weak though and unlikely to present a major hurdle
Mackie is one of the harder first rounds, even if he's not pulling an upset.

Alcaraz
R2: Shapovalov / van de Zandschulp


6/10

R1-R2 shouldn't be tough.
Shapo is also not a 'fun' 2nd round.

Zverev
R1: Ruusuvuori


3/10

The R1-R3 are fairly unremarkable.

Of all of the first rounds, Roose probably has the biggest chance for an upset.


Medvedev
R3: Cobolli


8/10
However, the first 3 rounds really shouldn't trouble him at all.

If he gets there, Cobolli could be a tough out. He's shown some good tennis this year.
 

GloW

Professional
Mackie is one of the harder first rounds, even if he's not pulling an upset.


Shapo is also not a 'fun' 2nd round.



Of all of the first rounds, Roose probably has the biggest chance for an upset.




If he gets there, Cobolli could be a tough out. He's shown some good tennis this year.
roose match was cancelled
 

Neptune

Hall of Fame
I think Medvedev has Tsitsipas in the 4th round, or whoever wins between FAA/Tsistipas. Cobolli's in good form too. I think his draw is the toughest then Sinner's. Alcaraz should really like his draw to the SF. Hurkacz is injured and not a threat, and won't make it to the QF and he should deal with De Minaur much easier. Korda could be tricky though.

Zverev and Djokovic should like theirs as well but Djokovic has Canada champ Popyrin to deal with and Tiafoe. From overall hardest to easiest I'd go Medvedev > Sinner > Djokovic > Alcaraz > Zverev

On paper the top5 are the obvious contenders, and if Sinner-Med has a tough fight, Alcaraz will get the benefit (UO23 after Zverev-Sinner tough fight, it was almost a walkover for Alcaraz), so if we ignore Popyrin (Canada Masters) and Tiafoe (Cincy runner-up) both in Nole's section, then hardest to easiest:

Sinner=Med>Nole>Zverev>Alcaraz (OP is waaaay off)

Nobody has ever survived a completed Zverev SF to win a slam.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
On paper the top5 are the obvious contenders, and if Sinner-Med has a tough fight, Alcaraz will get the benefit (UO23 after Zverev-Sinner tough fight, it was almost a walkover for Alcaraz), so if we ignore Popyrin (Canada Masters) and Tiafoe (Cincy runner-up) both in Nole's section, then hardest to easiest:

Sinner=Med>Nole>Zverev>Alcaraz (OP is waaaay off)

Nobody has ever survived a completed Zverev SF to win a slam.

No. Zverev doesn't face any obvious challenges until round 4.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
On paper the top5 are the obvious contenders, and if Sinner-Med has a tough fight, Alcaraz will get the benefit (UO23 after Zverev-Sinner tough fight, it was almost a walkover for Alcaraz), so if we ignore Popyrin (Canada Masters) and Tiafoe (Cincy runner-up) both in Nole's section, then hardest to easiest:

Sinner=Med>Nole>Zverev>Alcaraz (OP is waaaay off)

Nobody has ever survived a completed Zverev SF to win a slam.
Yea the Medvedev/Sinner clash could be a tiring match if it happens. That definitely would help Alcaraz.

The bolded is probably an arbitrary stat. Djokovic did beat him in the QF of AO 2021 on the way to the title.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Let's be honest,Tsitsipas is facing Kokkinakis in the first round. One match at a time.

So what you are saying is that Tsitsipas draw is even tougher than what I said?

Yeah, I would agree. It is. Which is my point.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
Med is the true definition of won’t be surprised if he loses within the first three rounds nor wouldn’t be surprised if he made a run and wins it.

That said I think Casper is the first top 10 seed bounced. I do think medvedev will struggle the opening two rounds but find a way and play his way back to form and get to QFs.

Sinner will have to find a way throughout the controversy and play home soil player and favorite Tommy Paul. I think Paul will give him some trouble. If he gets through - I think sinner will struggle against med in day match. Should have better luck if it’s the night match though.

Alcaraz should run through his draw. Not saying he’s not going to be prone to an upset bc it can happen. I see him getting through to the semis with dropping maybe a set or two.

Novak and zverev should all get through their qtrs. I want to pencil Novak into the finals with ease. But again I don’t know it’s the last slam of the year and many things out of ordinary due happen. Zverev has a lot of miles played this year. While I think he cruises to the semis - one has to wonder if he’s a bit fatigued and mentally prone to dropping matches he should get through.

In the end I think alcaraz vs. Novak ends up being the final. Novak does take it.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
I think his point was that Tsitsipas has been averaging a 2R exit at the US Open.
It can very well happen again. Although his dad isn’t the coach but I wouldn’t expect to see any significant results to that change here in NY. Could be wrong. Stefanos has the talent to win but he’s just been off.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
I think his point was that Tsitsipas has been averaging a 2R exit at the US Open.

Sure, but how does that change the fact that he has the toughest draw, irrespective of whether he goes out first round, or makes the final?

The draw is still he draw, right?
 

reaper

Legend
I think there's a lot of guesswork about who goes through in this tournament. Would it really be a surprise if Djokovic or Sinner went out early?
 

reaper

Legend
Sure, but how does that change the fact that he has the toughest draw, irrespective of whether he goes out first round, or makes the final?

The draw is still he draw, right?
Does the draw mean who you actually play, or who you might have played if things unfold as anticipated? We don't yet know who has a tough draw if it's the former.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Does the draw mean who you actually play, or who you might have played if things unfold as anticipated? We don't yet know who has a tough draw if it's the former.

The draw is what you have been given on day one, whether you are able to navigate it or not, is another thing.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
I think Medvedev has Tsitsipas in the 4th round, or whoever wins between FAA/Tsistipas. Cobolli's in good form too. I think his draw is the toughest then Sinner's. Alcaraz should really like his draw to the SF. Hurkacz is injured and not a threat, and won't make it to the QF and he should deal with De Minaur much easier. Korda could be tricky though.

Zverev and Djokovic should like theirs as well but Djokovic has Canada champ Popyrin to deal with and Tiafoe. From overall hardest to easiest I'd go Medvedev > Sinner > Djokovic > Alcaraz > Zverev
Alcaraz potentially has Sinner in the SF, meaning his draw is twice as complex as Novak's. Sinner > Zverev.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Alcaraz potentially has Sinner in the SF, meaning his draw is twice as complex as Novak's. Sinner > Zverev.

What was the result when Alcaraz last played Sinner in a HC slam? What was the result when Alcaraz last played Zverev in a HC slam?
 
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