UTR Admits Change In Algorithm—Severely Hampers Ability To Raise Rating

jcgatennismom

Professional
Upsets of the 2+ level are very rare. However, more common (tho still a small %) are 3 setters where the higher player wins with a 2.0 difference. I have seen several of those reviewing ITA summer circuit results. Most of those are players with UTR under 10, but a 12.59 barely beat a 10.51. That's big but it wont count. However, even if the 2+ wins by lower level players do count, what is the weight? Even matches 1.0-1.99 apart carry less weight, than matches 1.0 UTR or less apart. Would be helpful to know the weight. At these ITA summer circuits, there are some big gaps. If a match only counts .25 or .5 of a 1.0 gap match, players should know so they can choose to play tournaments where they will get the maximum credit for their matches. Why play 5 matches if players will only get credit for 2 which has happened in some past ITA summer circuit matches.
 

MarTennis

Semi-Pro
Upsets of the 2+ level are very rare. However, more common (tho still a small %) are 3 setters where the higher player wins with a 2.0 difference. I have seen several of those reviewing ITA summer circuit results. Most of those are players with UTR under 10, but a 12.59 barely beat a 10.51. That's big but it wont count. However, even if the 2+ wins by lower level players do count, what is the weight? Even matches 1.0-1.99 apart carry less weight, than matches 1.0 UTR or less apart. Would be helpful to know the weight. At these ITA summer circuits, there are some big gaps. If a match only counts .25 or .5 of a 1.0 gap match, players should know so they can choose to play tournaments where they will get the maximum credit for their matches. Why play 5 matches if players will only get credit for 2 which has happened in some past ITA summer circuit matches.
Opted for money tourney's because of these gaps. The utr differences are much tighter and a bit higher this year, especially in Southern California.
 

jcgatennismom

Professional
UTR just destroyed their own system.
Elaborate-which recent changes are destroying uTR-counting wins by lower player even if 2.0+ diff, not counting close matches that are 2.01+ apart, or hosting "level-based tourneys" with too large of gap between opponents, or some other flaw? All of those have been discussed on thread. UTR is just a tool-sometimes it is portrayed as a scalpel precisely determining ratings when it really may be a butter knife. UTR was created for people to find competitive matches and it does an excellent job for that but now it is used for predicting wins and best fit for colleges, and its accuracy is somewhat lower as it was not designed for those uses.
 
Upsets of the 2+ level are very rare. However, more common (tho still a small %) are 3 setters where the higher player wins with a 2.0 difference. I have seen several of those reviewing ITA summer circuit results. Most of those are players with UTR under 10, but a 12.59 barely beat a 10.51. That's big but it wont count. However, even if the 2+ wins by lower level players do count, what is the weight? Even matches 1.0-1.99 apart carry less weight, than matches 1.0 UTR or less apart. Would be helpful to know the weight. At these ITA summer circuits, there are some big gaps. If a match only counts .25 or .5 of a 1.0 gap match, players should know so they can choose to play tournaments where they will get the maximum credit for their matches. Why play 5 matches if players will only get credit for 2 which has happened in some past ITA summer circuit matches.
That's just completely absurd. Going by what you said, if the top seed ATP/WTA player loses in the first round to a qualifier at a GS event, the match should not count? If that's the case, why even bothers to compete at all?
 

jcgatennismom

Professional
That's just completely absurd. Going by what you said, if the top seed ATP/WTA player loses in the first round to a qualifier at a GS event, the match should not count? If that's the case, why even bothers to compete at all?
In that situation the match would count for ATP/WTA points even if it didnt count for UTR. However looking at UTR for the top pro men or women, none of the top 3 played any player ranked more than 1.6 below them in the last 12 months. Even the UTR 16s' lowest opponents were mid to high 14s. On the women's side, UTR is really tight with most matches within .5 UTR and very few with a 1.0 gap between opponents for the top ladies even in early rounds. Since Qualifiers have to win 3-4 matches before the MD, the qualifiers are very talented so within 1-1.5 or less UTR of top players. So your hypothetical situation is not going to happen in GS. In a Future Quali maybe-have seen a Future quali with UTR from 8-14 but the 8 lost 0,1. You definitely could see the situation in Men's opens, ITA summer circuits, etc.
 

ChaelAZ

Legend
I thought only including the result if it was close made a lot of sense. I can see how factoring a 6-0 6-1 loss to a much higher rated opponent might incorrectly bump the losing player up too much. If the loss is 6-4, 6-3, though, that indicates something about the abilities of the players.
They could "level' ratings with a handicap in those instances. SImple subroutine could clean that up and have matches count at least.
 

FIRETennis

New User
What happens if a player loses their rating by not having played any matches eligible for UTR in the last 12 months?
I noticed a bunch of players in this situation have a 'UR' instead of a UTR number.
When they play their next eligible UTR match, would the system give them a new rating based on how close was the match with their opponent?
 

LJ92

New User
i think in that case the system starts over completely once they start playing again. it would look at the results that come in and depending on their results against reliably-rated players start to come up with a projected rating, and as some consistency is shown, then the rating would eventually become reliable again.
 

Fabresque

Professional
That's just completely absurd. Going by what you said, if the top seed ATP/WTA player loses in the first round to a qualifier at a GS event, the match should not count? If that's the case, why even bothers to compete at all?
Ehhh, top 200-300 are really tight with each other in UTR.

Djokovic is a 16.13. The 300th ranked player in the world, Benjamin Hassan, is a 14.57. Not even a 2+ difference but they’re clearly worlds apart in their ATP rankings.

Point is upsets do happen. A 14.3 could beat a Top 50 ATP player with a 15.7, and it would count because it’s, again, not a 2+ difference.

UTR excels in the top of the men’s/women’s games, where everyone is really close to each other. Djokovic beating a world no. 83 in the first round of a tournament 6-3 6-3 may look routine, and it is, for them. That no. 83, while he probably won’t, can upset Djokovic if certain things go his way on that day, because his utr means he can have a competitive match with him.
 
It does hurt and it’s a terrible rule. If a 4.0 loses to a 6.1, but the score is 6-4, 6-4, the 4.0 doesn’t increase. Then if a 5.5 plays the 4.0 and wins 6-4, 6-4, the 5.5’s rating gets crushed. The 4.0 should never have been a 4.0.

And it DOES matter. UTR’s are used for grouping in clinics and for matches. The 6.1 gets better opportunities.

I also shared an example of a player who hasn’t played in over 6 months due to an injury, but his UTR went up a full point. He never had a close match with anyone near his current rating. His rating went up because his opponents’ ratings went up. So if I played Federer when we were 12 and lost 6-4, 6-4, and I never played again, I’d now be a 15.00.

Why is this bad? The earlier rule was 2.5 point difference, with close matches (rare indeed) possibly being counted. So how does this hurt us? The goal of utr is to get an accurate rating of match performance in the future, the algorithm must be adjusted as they learn more about it, and to counter any gamesmanship. I don't see we don't just play and let the utr rate accordingly.
 

andfor

Legend
Your win over Federer would have timed out by the time you both turned 13
I was wondering if my match back in 2005 still counted when my 4.5 doubles partner and me (4.5 ) beat a 5.0 and 6.5 (NTRP). Thanks, your response here clears that up for me and I will not try and selfreport that result to UTR now.
 

FIRETennis

New User
It does hurt and it’s a terrible rule. If a 4.0 loses to a 6.1, but the score is 6-4, 6-4, the 4.0 doesn’t increase. Then if a 5.5 plays the 4.0 and wins 6-4, 6-4, the 5.5’s rating gets crushed. The 4.0 should never have been a 4.0.

And it DOES matter. UTR’s are used for grouping in clinics and for matches. The 6.1 gets better opportunities.

I also shared an example of a player who hasn’t played in over 6 months due to an injury, but his UTR went up a full point. He never had a close match with anyone near his current rating. His rating went up because his opponents’ ratings went up. So if I played Federer when we were 12 and lost 6-4, 6-4, and I never played again, I’d now be a 15.00.
I agree with @manwithtwofirstnames .
Another issue is that the higher rated player, might just 'mess around' the whole match "knowing" that he is going to win anyway to the low rated opponent and that the result, no matter how tight, won't hurt his rating.
 
I agree with @manwithtwofirstnames .
Another issue is that the higher rated player, might just 'mess around' the whole match "knowing" that he is going to win anyway to the low rated opponent and that the result, no matter how tight, won't hurt his rating.
If the higher rated player knows that the match won't count in his UTR, he will be able to take the opportunity to work on a part of his game. This could be beneficial to both players as the lower rated player may get a chance to be involved in more rallies while the higher rated player messes around working on his weaknesses.
 
If the higher rated player knows that the match won't count in his UTR, he will be able to take the opportunity to work on a part of his game. This could be beneficial to both players as the lower rated player may get a chance to be involved in more rallies while the higher rated player messes around working on his weaknesses.
In reality, that never happens.

Also, having any player underrated reduces participation and promotes defaults. A win is a win, a loss is a loss - every game should count.
 
In reality, that never happens.

Also, having any player underrated reduces participation and promotes defaults. A win is a win, a loss is a loss - every game should count.
Well, it happened to my son and his teammates when they were playing a high school match against another school, and they knew the results were not going to be entered in UTR. The coach actually told each of the kids what they were supposed to work on that day.
 

jcgatennismom

Professional
Interesting scenario-in a WC tourney that probably wont count for UTR (not on tennislink, UTR platform), a UTR 7.57 1 star jr beat a 12.5+ D1 college player (the 1 seed). The lower player lost the first set 0-6, but the higher rated player got sick in the 2nd set and retired. The heat index was 100 degrees+. If this was a UTR tourney, not sure what the impact would have been. Also while the lower rated player technically won the match, the player only won 2 games to the higher player's 6 games (0-6, 2-0, ret,) The match would have counted since a win, but wins with a wide gap are weighted less. 4/21 players retired. Two matches were played a day. I remember some very hot matches in the juniors, but at least in the MD, players only played 1 per day. Anyway this example shows there can be unusual circumstances that lead to much higher ranked player losing to a lower rated player-thus possibly legitimizing UTR giving less weight to those matches. However, on the other hand, all players have the same opportunity to keep up their fitness to be ready for tough conditions...
 

jcgatennismom

Professional
What's a "WC tourney?"
wild card tourney for a pro event-in this case for Future Quali WCs. It used to be most of these were on tennislink so they were easier to find for players looking for another way to enter a Futures. Also in the past, the WCs were for the MD-now players play for WCs to Qualis.
 

andfor

Legend
Interesting scenario-in a WC tourney that probably wont count for UTR (not on tennislink, UTR platform), a UTR 7.57 1 star jr beat a 12.5+ D1 college player (the 1 seed). The lower player lost the first set 0-6, but the higher rated player got sick in the 2nd set and retired. The heat index was 100 degrees+. If this was a UTR tourney, not sure what the impact would have been. Also while the lower rated player technically won the match, the player only won 2 games to the higher player's 6 games (0-6, 2-0, ret,) The match would have counted since a win, but wins with a wide gap are weighted less. 4/21 players retired. Two matches were played a day. I remember some very hot matches in the juniors, but at least in the MD, players only played 1 per day. Anyway this example shows there can be unusual circumstances that lead to much higher ranked player losing to a lower rated player-thus possibly legitimizing UTR giving less weight to those matches. However, on the other hand, all players have the same opportunity to keep up their fitness to be ready for tough conditions...
The junior player was down 0-6, 2-0 ret. I believe there's a self reporting feature on UTR even if you have a free account. My guess is even if it did count, it wouldn't bump the juniors rating much. In this case all it shows anyone who knows is the junior player was either in better shape than the college player or got a good break from an injury the college player couldn't recover from.

Regarding the heat and players dropping out. It's a total lack of conditioning, and that's likely the case for all the retirements here. Lightly prepared players in these type conditions can easily melt down. There's a 60 year old man playing who completed his two matches.

@ClarkC WC is wildcard. This is for a Futures tourney starting Monday.
 

texrunner

New User
In the case of the WC the match won’t count at all...yes the lower rated player “won” by default but the higher rated player still “won” in terms of more games. And obviously there was more than a 2 point difference in utr. A similar thing happened at a usta open tournament this summer. Two kids with more than a 2.0 spread in utrs were playing and the higher rated player was barely winning before retiring with severe muscle cramps. So he “lost” the match but got more games so in the world of utr he won.
And I disagree that only unconditioned athletes can get sick from the heat. Sometimes it’s not a matter of how fit you are, it also has to do with how well hydrated you are, how much sleep you’ve had etc.
 

andfor

Legend
I believe in the tourney there were 4 retirements. Not conditioned enough to handle the heat.


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LJ92

New User
In the case of the WC the match won’t count at all...yes the lower rated player “won” by default but the higher rated player still “won” in terms of more games. And obviously there was more than a 2 point difference in utr. A similar thing happened at a usta open tournament this summer. Two kids with more than a 2.0 spread in utrs were playing and the higher rated player was barely winning before retiring with severe muscle cramps. So he “lost” the match but got more games so in the world of utr he won.
And I disagree that only unconditioned athletes can get sick from the heat. Sometimes it’s not a matter of how fit you are, it also has to do with how well hydrated you are, how much sleep you’ve had etc.
hmmm i'm not sure this is right -- the winning player for the 2 point spread is the one declared the winner, not the one with the higher % of games won within the match.
 

andfor

Legend
hmmm i'm not sure this is right -- the winning player for the 2 point spread is the one declared the winner, not the one with the higher % of games won within the match.
Maybe. But if college scholarships are on the line, good coaches know who the real players are. Multiple retirements and defaults to dodge a true UTR rating standout like a sore thumb.


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